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Emotions In Check

Fri, Aug 12, 2011 - 10:03am

 Man, these days are tough, aren't they? If you're new to trading and stacking the PMs, get used to this wrung-out and frustrated feeling. Because both metals are overtly and covertly manipulated by The Cartel, they are subject to these reversals that seem to come from nowhere. One day, you're right and everyone in the world seems to be catching on. But, on the next day, the C/C/C changes the rules in their favor and you tumble into the pit of despair. Have faith, my friends, as this too shall pass. Not without more wailing and grinding of teeth first, but, this too shall pass.

Let me ask you this: What has changed since Wednesday?

Has the U.S. suddenly gotten it's budget balanced? (Did anyone even notice the "failed" 30-year auction yesterday? Oh yea. How could you? CNBS deleted Santelli's "rating" from their video library.)

Are Italy and Spain suddenly solvent? Italy's debt-to-GDP is still 118%, isn't it? It's still going to take upwards of $3T euro to "bail them out". This math is impossible because that's still about 20% of Europa's GDP, right?

Last I checked, several big, European banks are teetering on the edge of insolvency due to their government bond and CDS exposure. Has this changed?

In the U.S., Bank of America is insolvent due to a terrible book of mortgages and an even more awful book of CDS exposure. Is that even fixable?

I could go on and on but I think you get the point. The W.O.P.R. machnes are dumping the gold they acquired earlier this week. Let 'em. You and I will just use this opportunity to quietly stack a little more. If you're trading, you can buy this dip at the levels shown below. Just be sure to buy yourself plenty of time. Nothing sucks more than having the right trade but having the sand pass through the hourglass before being proven correct.



More later, after we see what kind of fun the day brings. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Piter · Aug 12, 2011 - 10:04am

yep there is un filled gap at 1650-70 so we are definitely going there. buy the dip then.

qqq62 · Aug 12, 2011 - 10:05am

at last!

qqq62 · Aug 12, 2011 - 10:06am


silver_hunter · Aug 12, 2011 - 10:09am

No margin, which means not to be greedy.

Buy low, buy the plunge. trim high, sell the POP.

SilverTree · Aug 12, 2011 - 10:13am

Good luck to todays gold-close-exchange-rate contestants!

fnord · Aug 12, 2011 - 10:14am

What's dat?

speconomist · Aug 12, 2011 - 10:14am

Turd you can also mention that in Spain we have over 20% unemployment, according to the official numbers!

ewc58 · Aug 12, 2011 - 10:14am

Wild pic on Rick Rule's new KWN blog entry. Tesla, did Eric King see your work here and hire you?laugh

ReachWest · Aug 12, 2011 - 10:16am

As Turd articulates, nothing has changed - so why does it look like the big money is exiting Au ahead of the weekend? What alternative are they going to? Cash? Equities? (Certainly not the PM miners).

Anything can happen before, the Asian markets reopen again Sunday night. Nothing seems to make sense to me.

Just bought some more Silver Maples.

Tecumseh · Aug 12, 2011 - 10:17am

The most amazing thing to me in all of this is to watch pundits and politicians and cretins of one kind or another all talk about free markets and free enterprise and such, while all along the Big Money (the EE, C/C/C, Cartel. . .) and its Federal Government cronies manipulate the markets to their advantage. It would be laughable it didn't make a grown turd cry. Turd has it exactly right, as he usually does--no underlying, fundamental problem has improved (they may have changed, but for the worse), yet the Big Money can shuck and jive its way to the results it wants.

Urban Roman · Aug 12, 2011 - 10:18am

Au looks sort of like what Ag did back in April.

I'm not trading every day in and out, but when you have a big runup like that, it attracts the attention of the EE... also, the people that do trade in and out will be taking some profits. Fer cryin' out loud, it's gone past Platinum for a day or so!

Victor123 · Aug 12, 2011 - 10:18am
ScottJ · Aug 12, 2011 - 10:18am

Thanks for keeping it in check Turd,

Keep up the Good Work, your insight has been vastly improving!


Scott J


Ron Paul from Last Night from the Ames Straw Poll Debate

All Of Ron Paul's Iowa Fox GOP Debate Question & Answers
fnord · Aug 12, 2011 - 10:19am


speconomist · Aug 12, 2011 - 10:19am

By the way, is the silver chart correct? Doesn't like like it is to me.

Strongsidejedi · Aug 12, 2011 - 10:20am

I seem to recall a contest earlier in the week.

Anyone got the list of guesses? Or was that last week? With all the volatility, I seem to have blended the past week or so.

About Silver... is anyone else seeing the compression in the hi-lo spread?

That 8 hour chart looks like the lo side of the Ag price is pretty flat if not rising.

But the high price is compressing downwards.

With the rotation back into equities that is going on, the OI should be falling in Ag and Au futures.

One wonders if the JPM plan (see the discussion in the Monday thread) was to ratchet up AU futures and then pour that $FRN into silver.

Right now, it seems like heavy shorts got in position at 1800-1820 and then started pushing down AU.

I suppose the real question is how long Ag stays < 49. If the Ag price compression < 49 can be popped off, then the shorters at the April high will be blown out of the way.

The same dynamics may be at play in AU at 1800. In order for the next Santa Angel to hit, the 1800 shorts have be blown out.

beinki · Aug 12, 2011 - 10:20am

speconomist · Aug 12, 2011 - 10:20am
My brother photoshopped a picture of himself with the hat from the $40 silver contest. Thanks a lot for sending it Turd! You all can check that the left side of the hat has been autographed by Turd Ferguson himself.
¤ · Aug 12, 2011 - 10:21am


Frontal Labottleme · Aug 12, 2011 - 10:21am

@DarkPurpleHaze I'm not what you are see is algo action but possibly just the data being out of date and getting updated at the open maybe? The only time I have seen that is right at market open - options don't immediately update to reflect the overnight changes to the underlying asset. I did see some massive spreads when everybody was waiting for the Fed's statement the other day, but nothing like you describe. Let us know if you find out anymore about it tho. Thanks.

kliguy38 · Aug 12, 2011 - 10:22am

very healthy technical turn in the miners.......should be a nice second half of the year.......enjoy....

¤ · Aug 12, 2011 - 10:23am

SLW options 15 minutes ago/A warning

Submitted by DarkPurpleHaze on August 12, 2011 - 9:53am. Hat Tip! 3

I just had another bad experience. A costlier one.

And quite honestly, my hands are still trembling a bit from what just happened again. Logged into my options account first thing and saw my SLW $65 calls Jan.12 shoot up over $12k and about 400% real fast. By the time I got a sell order that needed to be a limit price of $2.50 or so it was too late as it kept moving down rapidly.

Quite simply, I couldn't catch it and it didn't last long. From 12k to -1k potentially gone. Tuesday I believe, it was $5k down to -$450 in a blink.

Obviously I'm going to start using sell limits, but much higher then I could even anticipate. It's been happening within the first 5 minutes this week. I'm on guard now as I see anything is possible and I'll set ridiculously high sell limit as it seems it will probably happen again given the volatile environment were in.

Still trembling a bit as I'm pissed, bummed out and in utter disbelief what I've seen "and was ready for" sitting at the keyboard. HFT algo's in complete control.

Obviously, a human has no chance against this and I'm not real confident that even if I had a high sell limit order in that the system would have bought it up. I'm serious.

If this is what a comex or commercial failure might look like in the least little bit then get ready for some eye opening stuff.

Twice in 1 week...? Wtf? Was it my fault...yeah...I guess so...maybe.

Did I really have a chance to recoup everything I was underwater with in May in 1 swoop at 9:35 a.m.? It seems that way but I really don't know and that's disturbing.

Good time for a bloody mary at this point.

Be careful of the algo's.

Poor Boy fnord · Aug 12, 2011 - 10:23am

fnord It's the computer from War Games.


PJH10 · Aug 12, 2011 - 10:24am

You've got to figure that the European short selling ban combined with their credit spreads widening is going to ignite at some point in the next week.

...just in time for Jackson Hole. What do you think the Bernank will do? The right thing?

Tesla · Aug 12, 2011 - 10:24am

Haha... posted one like that yesterday but it was a google image I can't take credit for it (and there was only 1 finger raised)

(EDIT) I pulled it and swapped in a polar bear 'having a bad day' instead... 

Tuck-N-Gold · Aug 12, 2011 - 10:26am

I hate that I posted what I did on Monday because its seems to have come true. Yikes I called it close, now we have to see what it closes at today. Anyone make a list yet? I called after going over 1750 it would get beaten back to 1728.65....hope I'm wrong though, but then again I would love a hat.

speconomist · Aug 12, 2011 - 10:27am

I pulled out that chart because it so resembles the current chart. Interesting, huh?

CauseChange · Aug 12, 2011 - 10:29am

LOL Turd, You posted a July silver chart! I wish it was still at 33 and change, I would be buying that dip into the heavens!!

sevin · Aug 12, 2011 - 10:29am

This market is so irrational it isn't even funny. Consumer sentiment lowest in 3 decades and we get a little dip in the market that is gained back already. insane.

¤ · Aug 12, 2011 - 10:29am

@Tom L...thanks for the condolences and the Scotch info last night. I set my sell limits higher for when it happens again. Whew...that sucked the wind right out of me.

@Frontal...I hear you on the opening and the adjustments etc. I have my options account open everyday at the open and this is the only time I've seen anything like that and 2x in one week. I'll get satisfaction at some point. I have time on my side...thankfully.

But clearing that potential money and getting above water again was soooo close.

All of this just happens to coincide with all the market madness going on and the short selling bans going ....H'mmmm.

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Key Economic Events Week of 11/12

11/14 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
11/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales
11/15 8:30 ET Philly Fed
11/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed
11/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories
11/16 9:15 ET Industrial Prod and Cap Utilization

Key Economic Events week of 11/5

11/5 9:45 ET PMI Services
11/5 10:00 ET ISM Services
11/6 US Mid-term Election Day
11/8 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
11/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
11/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

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10/31 8:15 ET ADP employment
10/31 8:30 ET Employment Cost Index
11/1 8:30 ET Productivity
11/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu Index
11/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
11/2 8:30 ET Balance of Trade
11/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

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