Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 10:35am

By now, you're all aware of the pretty technical formation we call an FUBM. Another one that we occasionally get to see is the FUCME. Let's watch for one today into tomorrow.

To no one's surprise, the criminal C/C/C raised margins on gold last night. They did this under the cover of darkness and at a point when gold was about to go parabolic. Gold margins get raised and the S&P reverses. That's a handy way to stop the rally. The S&P is now up 22 points and gold is down....brace yourself...$24! Definitely NOT the cascading waterfall that the C/C/C had hoped for. Oh, they might get some follow-through selling later this morning so I've provided you with some support levels on the chart below. However, I'm expecting at least a mini-FUCME to form over the next 28 hours. Why? Would you want to be short over the upcoming weekend? Really? I didn't think so. Expect some short-covering tomorrow as well as regular buying. This will halt the current slide provide new momentum for next week. One word of caution...I do not expect further margin hikes. Usually, they only come one-at-a-time. However, as we all know, if the criminals are dead set on killing a market for a while, they can raise margins as often as 5 times in 9 days. IF we get another margin hike tomorrow or over the weekend or next week, the C/C/C will have made clear their intentions to all.

Silver continues to suffer from the same disease that has plagued it for weeks. Namely, low open interest and high margins leads to a shallow group of buyers who, once they stop buying, are easily overrun by the Forces of Darkness. Up goes silver. Down goes silver. You end up with a chart like the one below, with lines all over it. Dazed and confused. I still think silver rallies over the next three weeks but days like this one sure make it difficult to be a believer.

That's it for now. I've got the following lows so far: $1755.20 in the Dec gold and 38.06 in the Sep silver. Watch those level closely for an indication of whether my FUCMEs for this morning or overnight and into tomorrow.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Aug 11, 2011 - 10:37am

Sounds good

Sit tight everyone!!

Aug 11, 2011 - 10:40am

Fook Mi

Video unavailable
Aug 11, 2011 - 10:40am

No fear Turd

Looks all good to me. Hoping for a lunch time Miners FUBM!


Aug 11, 2011 - 10:44am

days like this one sure make

days like this one sure make it difficult to be a believer.

Why? We've been watching them do this to this silver forever. Any believer who survived mayday -- or even last Thursday's $2.40 in 40 minute beat down -- with his faith intact shouldn't blink at this.

Aug 11, 2011 - 10:45am

The Calvin Hairball

Can't help but think the whole market system is like a giant hair ball of debt and paper fiat and the fat cat bankers are about to hurl up the biggest financial entanglement yet. Yuck!

Thanks TF. Glad to see your on top of it as usual.

Any thoughts on a possible ban on short selling here? I know your giving it thought. They're dangling it out there and we all know what that usually means.

Have a nice day!

Aug 11, 2011 - 10:49am

Bouncing off $1755...

and it's about that time of day where this just reverses. We shall soon find out if it rings true again today.

Aug 11, 2011 - 10:49am

Back Into the Cave!


I'm really looking forward to today's action in the markets, especially in the gold and silver shares. If, and I say if, the breakout that seemed to appear yesterday against the broader stock market is validated by continued strength today, we could be up for a pleasant ride for quite some time.

We are likely to see gold weaker for at least a few days, which makes it even more interesting gold stock-wise. Today could be the start of a new era in the world of gold stocks, and it is time for the shares to prove their manhood by showing some muscles, and pushing those nasty hedge funds back into the cave where they belong.

A55H0LE_Lawyer SilverTree
Aug 11, 2011 - 10:50am

Fook Mi

Damn! Now I'm gonna be thinking about those twins for the rest of the morning ....

Aug 11, 2011 - 10:51am


If you don't buy THIS dippage (silver mainly)...you might be a dumb@55 !

Slick Shill
Aug 11, 2011 - 10:51am

Likely bounce yes. Right

Likely bounce yes.

Right after the 1pm 30yr auction and 11am 5yr TIPS

Aug 11, 2011 - 10:52am

Phyzz and SVM

Exchanged 15% of my paper assets into Silver phyzz. Bought SVM $15 calls Jan 21.

Aug 11, 2011 - 10:53am







Aug 11, 2011 - 10:54am

Hat from $40 silver contest

My brother photoshopped a picture of himself with the hat from the $40 silver contest. Thanks a lot for sending it Turd!

You all can check that the left side of the hat has been autographed by Turd Ferguson himself.

Aug 11, 2011 - 10:55am

Hard to play this game

always on the ee home court, yet--just look at the 11 years chart if you need to be encouraged-(gold is better than silver of course but both beat beat the spx by many furlongs.

Jim Grant sounded good on cnbc this am what with talking up a gold standard and manipulation by fed.

Aug 11, 2011 - 10:56am

Silver's looking good, big

Silver's looking good, big smashdowns never happen with low OI, they usually happen around 150,000, and we're at about 115,000 now, very bullish. Still lots of shorts, biggest month for silver coming up, I hope everyone is familiar with this 37 yr seasonal chart for silver by now:


Aug 11, 2011 - 10:58am

gold chart says silver

You marked both charts silver. Just pointing it out.

Thanks for all you do turd. I withdrew my deposit from my 200x leverage and account and free rolling from here on out. TY TY BTFD

Aug 11, 2011 - 10:58am


XOM circuit breaker triggered at the NYSE.

Aug 11, 2011 - 10:59am

By the way, the first chart

By the way, the first chart of the post is from Gold but instead you can read:

Hourly Dec Silver

Aug 11, 2011 - 11:01am

What Idiots conclude

Oh yeah because things would be SO much different with this lovely gal as the Bankster's top errand boy.

It doesn't matter who becomes "POTUS" anymore dumbasses, that is what we're going to get. GW43, Clinton, Shrub, OBottom. Note the pattern: worse and worse. Anyone see a big change in your ass getting reamed? What a ship of fools, the blind leading the blind.

Dems: 'We should have picked Hillary'...

Aug 11, 2011 - 11:03am


Look at this folks ha ha ha


Volatility will remain as long as the levers keep moving based on the prior day's trading. (Ban short selling when the market falls, increase margin requirements for Gold as the price rises.) Money moves like water, look at other commodities (Wheat, sugar, corn, etc.). This won't end well.

Tom L
Aug 11, 2011 - 11:04am

A little Perspective



If you had purchased $1000.00 of shares in Delta Airlines a year ago, you would have $49.00 today! If you purchased $1000.00 in AIG shares, you would have $33.00. If you purchased $1000.00 in shares in Lehman Brothers, you would have $0 today! But if you purchase $1000.worth of beer, drank all the beer, turned in the aluminum you would have $214.00. Therefore the best investment plan is to drink heavily and recycle.

Aug 11, 2011 - 11:05am


Maybe 1767 is a line in sand. Interested on how this plays out. I just bought 1753, but lots of dry powder still waiting. Hoping for FUCME so I can kick myself for not buying more. Funny game this trading, never happy :)

Aug 11, 2011 - 11:07am

Every cloud has a silver (or gold) lining

Our coin stock was getting puny after the last week of madness, so yesterday we loaded up on silver but held off purchasing any gold in hopes of a price dip. The C/C/C came through with a margin hike and we graciously accepted a discount on gold coins this morning.

Aug 11, 2011 - 11:07am
Economical Disaster
Aug 11, 2011 - 11:08am
Aug 11, 2011 - 11:09am

and work

Screw work. I've been calling in sick since Monday night. Probably in crap though, they know I love the PM's. But I can't focus. People don't see what's happening. Tired of explaining myself.

Aug 11, 2011 - 11:09am

KGC 1/21/12 $20 call

has given back 19 of yesterday's 31% gain, now sits at .55 Ask

GG 1.21.12 62.50 down 25% to 1.49 Ask; the 57.50 is down 22+% at 2.46 Ask

Aug 11, 2011 - 11:10am


No margin on physical..( buried under the hedge ) You just have to make sure you keep up on the property taxes.

Tom L averagejoe
Aug 11, 2011 - 11:11am


Yeah, you know I feel the same way. It always feels like there's room for improvement and I'm built to see/play edges all the way to their maximum, which is a fine way to be if you want to get your head handed to you in the market.

I often have. The trick is to always take a step back and congratulate yourself for the things you did right and not focus on the things you didn't. Learn from them but forget them.

Goaltenders have to learn to live in the moment and forget the last goal as quickly as the last save. Neither of them matters in the present. They only exist as lessons in retrospect. Trading is similar.

Yesterday I made a lot of good moves and one or two questionable ones. In no way am I unhappy.


Aug 11, 2011 - 11:11am


Hello -

I have started a website where people can add businesses that are barter friendly.

Be kind, I just started it:




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