Silver to $44

Tue, Aug 9, 2011 - 9:53pm

In the past 24 hours, we can now count four, separate attempts at the 1770 level by the December11 gold contract. We can also count four, immediate Cartel actions to hammer price back down. However, the lows are getting higher and the pressure is mounting. Will the Forces of Evil be able to contain gold through the night and into tomorrow or will they again be forced to retreat to higher ground? I suspect we will know very soon.

Take a look at these three December gold charts. I've tried to draw the same trendline on each. Note the savagery of the beatdowns as gold eclipses 1770. Santa warned us weeks ago that The Cartel also knows that 1764 is a very significant level and will thus defend it vigorously. They have and they are. Will they be successful? You'll know by following the trendline I've drawn and watching the triangle close. If I had to guess, our Asian friends also see this chart pattern and they will make a run at putting the EE into a submission hold later tonight. We'll see. It will be great theater.

Now, what I really wanted to talk about this evening is silver. I've scoured the internet for the most reliable and accurate analysis of today's events. I of course found it at Trader Dan's site. Please take a moment to read it and then come back. Go ahead, I'll wait.

Ahh, glad you're back. OK, where was I? Oh yea...silver. I've lifted the most important chart that Dan posted and re-printed it below. (Thanks, Dan!)

Notice that the CCI has averaged one big drop per month for the past five months. Each drop has lasted from 4-7 trading days and has been followed by a rather significant rally. The current drop just finished its fifth day and, with all of the hubbub from The Fed today, is almost assuredly going to bottom tomorrow if it didn't already bottom today. Anyway, my point is...we're about to see another 2-4 week rally in all of the commodities. Yes, copper, crude and the grains are going to rally. More importantly, I think we can feel very confident that silver is not going much lower, if at all. In fact, I bet we saw the lows today, in the beatdown on the Globex. So, from here, what can we expect? Given that silver rallied almost 25% in July, during the last CCI rally, I think a reasonable target for silver is $44 before Labor Day.

Adding to the ammunition are the utterly amazing OI numbers in silver. The latest numbers are basis Monday and show a total open interest of just over 114,000 contracts. We almost certainly lost a few more today. For perspective, the last time OI was this low was late June...right about the time the CCI bottomed!

So, there you go. I may look like a complete fool by this time tomorrow. Rigged and manipulated markets can do that to you. But, I'm sticking with it. $44 silver by Labor Day.

Have a great evening!! TF

10:05 am EDT UPDATE:

I do not have a new post this morning for two reasons:

1) I want to leave this current post as the "main story" for most of the day.

2) I'm busy watching an epic and breathtaking battle in the Dec11 gold contract.

As I type, our side is winning but just barely. Watch the 1780 level very, very closely. Above there, The Cartel will be forced to give up and retreat to safer ground. It looks almost certain that this is going to happen. As I watch the order flow, the bids are very strong and unrelenting. The chart looks like it's about to squeeze them, too.

I've got a last of 1777. Stay close and keep your fingers crossed! TF


The global stampede of investors rushing into the safety of a 6000-year old currency has completely overrun The Cartel's defensive positions between 1770 and 1780. I have a last of 1789 in the Dec11. If headlines don't change in the next six hours, expect explosive gains in the overnight Asian trade, too. Personally, I'm darn glad I took off my spreads yesterday and went "open-ended". Looks like lots of gains to come!

Speaking of which, isn't it great to see silver participating...FINALLY! The chart below was printed before the recent surge through $39. Keep the faith. Silver looks great!

More as conditions dictate. TF


30 minutes to go on this historic day. Gold is $20 off its highs but I'm not at all concerned. In fact, the chart below might be one of my all-time favorites. All of the smarty-pant shorts who had faith that their evil Cartel buddies could hold the line at 1780 just got smoked! HAHAHA! Rather predictably, the "market" has given back the $20 it added on the back of the short's pain and that's OK. Nothing has fundamentally changed and its looking more and more likely that we'll head into the overnight session with " a lotta mo", just like Mr T!

Clubber Lang - Best Scenes! (From Rocky III, Mr. T)

Full update soon. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Aug 10, 2011 - 11:15am

Capitulation, Desperation or Conflagration?

The Fed publicly announces no rate hikes until 2013. CME went on CNBC last week to deny the rumor they were going to raise gold margins. What next?

Obama promises one term and no new taxes?

Republocrats promise to get along and forego their Congressional pensions?

JPM comes clean on silver shorts and goes long?

Not that I would believe anything any of them say.

Aug 10, 2011 - 11:16am

@SilverWealth - and All

Word my friend WORD!!!

Rick Perry Is Illuminati Candidate For President... And He IS Evil, FAKE, NOT CHRISTIAN AT ALL and MUST NOT BE ELECTED!!! God Help America , God Help The World If This Charlatan POS Becomes President.

Spread The WORD

Aug 10, 2011 - 11:17am

A little late, but good work

A little late, but good work on the pattern recognition again Turd.

- Markus

Aug 10, 2011 - 11:17am


BTW, William Banzai is at is very best today at ZH. Worth checking out.

I also saw the link to Dylan Ratigan's rant yesterday from a blogger on that post. It's the old Dylan, in true form! Wonder if he'll get fired again for this one though. :-)

Here's the link if you haven't seen it yet and would like to.

Violent Rhetoric
Aug 10, 2011 - 11:19am

Please raid gold

Praying for a replay of yesterday's end of day failed raid so my stink limit bid gets hit.

Aug 10, 2011 - 11:19am

Looks like 1770 fell last night

They're defending 1780 pretty vigorously now. Ticker looks like it's coiling or in a triangle. Usually triangles end resuming the trend in the same direction it entered.

BlackHawk ewc58
Aug 10, 2011 - 11:19am


In our last exchange this morning about Chicago being the top US city for murder, you offered erroneous information. I called you out, asking that you give the source of your "facts". You refused. This reflects on your credibility as a source of information in general (falsus in uno, falsus in omnibus).

Therfore, please respect the administrator and the others on the main blog and take your speculation about the Seal 6 deaths elsewhere. Thank you.

Violent Rhetoric
Aug 10, 2011 - 11:23am
maravich44 Larry
Aug 10, 2011 - 11:24am

Congressional Pensions @Larry

Funny that you mention this. If there was even one stone in this whole bag of sacks, they might have offered it.

R man J
Aug 10, 2011 - 11:26am

Gold Shorts WIPED OUT

London Trader on KWN:

“I fully expect to have $2 moves in silver and $50 moves in gold as absolutely normal at this point. If you don’t expect that, you are not going to understand what is going on, but don’t forget that we are in August and you normally have juniors manning the desks....This is highly unusual and we do have very thin liquidity in the metals. So that’s one of the reasons you are seeing things move so quickly in both metals. You are talking about a one minute bar in gold being a ten dollar range.”...

“The physical buyers still have not been filled and they are getting nervous. The buyers in size have not been filled and they are underpinning this gold market. If gold pulls back the buyers will get some fills, if not they are going to have to start chasing this market. In fact, don’t be surprised to see a $100 move in gold if they lose patience."!.html

Aug 10, 2011 - 11:27am

Rick Perry

What did Rick Perry do to tick off dear old Alex so much?

zman maravich44
Aug 10, 2011 - 11:27am

GDX up 1.8%, GDXJ up .80%,

GDX up 1.8%, GDXJ up .80%, Dow down -440, that's what I am talking about!!!!!!

Aug 10, 2011 - 11:30am

ewc58 wrote: Just checked:

ewc58 wrote:

Just checked: the Team 6 page is stale. Just 6 posts, the most recent from Sunday night.

It's certainly not where I'd post anything nearly as important as the updates surrounding this tragedy, especially due to the well founded suspicions shared by so many. The story also talks to the corruption we see playing out everywhere. The PM space is but a subset of a much greater whole.

It's akin to putting a story of this magnitude in Section G, page 26 of the Sunday ny times. Is that really where you feel questions and concerns about the deaths of these fine young Americans belong? Well I sure don't.

I think the self moderation shown by all the participants in the discussion today performed its function just fine.

ewc58, all I did is post a link to be helpful. I didn't tell you to "take it somewhere else" or "stop discussing this here". I was just informing you that there is an on-going thread in the forums if people wanted to congregate and discuss.

Aug 10, 2011 - 11:31am

Will the PPT be back this afternoon?

That ridiculous 600 pt move in the Dow late yesterday (not to mention the nasty PM flash crash which I previously attributed to an imminent margin hike) had a foul odor to it. The fact that the entire gain, nothing more, nothing less was given back this morning in what appears to be a controlled selloff also stinks to high heaven. We've all seen this pattern before of letting things crash and burn on the open, flat line and/or flop around for most of the day, then with one or two well timed clicks of a mouse the mess is cleaned up. Innocent bystanders simply looking at daily or weekly closes are none the wiser. Surely people close to the action are making a killing this week. If the POMO desk is up and running again, we have to be more careful going forward.

FogHorn LegHorn Larry
Aug 10, 2011 - 11:32am

Larry " misdirection " the truth would be as fire in the mouth!

These rotten apples are incapable of truth. There souls have been sold bought and paid for. Larry, on a brighter note, Thank You for your posts your wisdom and sense of decorum is refreshing. Keep on keepin on Friend.

Aug 10, 2011 - 11:34am

Kumanari, Your posts don't


Your posts don't confuse me.. They enlighten me. I was just being tongue-in-cheek about the Beiber post.

Most importantly though, my heart and prayers are with you and your Dad. I am sorry. ..and that you are on here at all...helping others.. is incredible and speaks volumes about you. ..I will pm you, but not just now as I won't overstep into this time that you have with your Dad. God Bless you both ..will be thinking of you both.

Aug 10, 2011 - 11:35am

the 88 may have been the best field artillery piece

of WWII. Hard to say as the Russians were the kings of artillery by the end of the war. The 88 started its life as an anti-aircraft gun, but then some smart Gerry realized that if they shot it a flat trajectory, it could take out any allied tank. It was so much better and higher velocity than anything mounted by the American or British tanks, until very late in the war when the 90mm Sherman "Firefly" finally appeared on the allied side. Until then the 88's could just stand off, calmly take a bead, and light 'em up while the allied tanks were still hundreds of yards short of the effective range of their own guns. Outgunned out in the open is not at all where you want to be.

The Gerries then got really smart and built the Panzer VI (Tiger) around the 88. It and the MG42 (easily the finest machine gun of the war), sent waves of crippling fear thru opponents just by the sound they made, never mind the results they produced. At least one could hear the indicidual shots of the allied mg's, or even the German MG34. But the 42 was an upgrade years ahead of it's time. No more individual shots could be heard, the thing sounded just like a buzz saw and it scared the crap out of out GI's. For good reason. It was a perfect killing machine in the hands of a highly trained and deadly opponent.

By the end of the war, the guns on the main battle tanks of almost all armies were up sized well beyond the German 88 or American 90. But boy the 88 was uber deadly in its day and in its own right.

And now, back to the DJIA: down 411. For all we know, it could finish up that much.

German 88's to Blythe Masters' bottom, man do we cover some ground here in Turd Town or what?

Aug 10, 2011 - 11:36am

Folks look at miners picking

Folks look at miners picking up a volatility bid, this may be the break away we have all yearned for in miners!

Aug 10, 2011 - 11:37am

At 1780 again

Will "they" fail to hold this time?

It doesn't matter. If the headlines don't change in the next six hours, Asia will drive gold through 1800 overnight.

FogHorn LegHorn
Aug 10, 2011 - 11:38am

Jim Rickards on CBC Lange for thegooddoc / servstyle keybord jims @ about 35 mins. In. The shows pretty good and vacuous O' Leary is plesantly absent.:) Thankyou guys I though it was cranky old me, but must agree, survival I just as a matter of course skip your posts, ther to hard to read. I will read them if you write in regular manner. Please don't change on my account remain the rugged individualist, choice is yours, Cheers.

Aug 10, 2011 - 11:38am


Just took out 1782.50 in ONE TICK!!!

Aug 10, 2011 - 11:38am

Aug 10, 2011 - 11:38am


Now 1787!

Aug 10, 2011 - 11:40am

BlackHawk wrote: Therfore,

BlackHawk wrote:

Therfore, please respect the administrator and the others on the main blog and take your speculation about the Seal 6 deaths elsewhere. Thank you.

BlackHawk, you assume incorrectly. All I did is provide a link to let others know there was a forum thread where the topic was being discussed. If I wanted someone to stop discussing something, I wouldn't beat around the bush. I'd be direct and say so.

Aug 10, 2011 - 11:40am
Frontal Labottleme
Aug 10, 2011 - 11:40am

shorts capitulating?

You can bet JPM isn't... careful!

Aug 10, 2011 - 11:40am

Can't imagine being short in this market

Just asking for trouble.

Aug 10, 2011 - 11:41am

Jamie Dimon

LOL. Jamie Dimon on CNBC when gold popped past 1780.... haha. Pity he isn't watching. Silver popped, too! $38.74!

Love yah Turd!!

Tom L
Aug 10, 2011 - 11:41am


Moving higher now as well... 203 on the XAU, 559 on the HUI.

Silver just busted out that downtrend. C'mon $40!


Aug 10, 2011 - 11:41am


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