Silver to $44

460
129
Tue, Aug 9, 2011 - 9:53pm

In the past 24 hours, we can now count four, separate attempts at the 1770 level by the December11 gold contract. We can also count four, immediate Cartel actions to hammer price back down. However, the lows are getting higher and the pressure is mounting. Will the Forces of Evil be able to contain gold through the night and into tomorrow or will they again be forced to retreat to higher ground? I suspect we will know very soon.

Take a look at these three December gold charts. I've tried to draw the same trendline on each. Note the savagery of the beatdowns as gold eclipses 1770. Santa warned us weeks ago that The Cartel also knows that 1764 is a very significant level and will thus defend it vigorously. They have and they are. Will they be successful? You'll know by following the trendline I've drawn and watching the triangle close. If I had to guess, our Asian friends also see this chart pattern and they will make a run at putting the EE into a submission hold later tonight. We'll see. It will be great theater.

Now, what I really wanted to talk about this evening is silver. I've scoured the internet for the most reliable and accurate analysis of today's events. I of course found it at Trader Dan's site. Please take a moment to read it and then come back. Go ahead, I'll wait.

https://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/08/s-500-update-us-dollar-sacrificed.html

Ahh, glad you're back. OK, where was I? Oh yea...silver. I've lifted the most important chart that Dan posted and re-printed it below. (Thanks, Dan!)

Notice that the CCI has averaged one big drop per month for the past five months. Each drop has lasted from 4-7 trading days and has been followed by a rather significant rally. The current drop just finished its fifth day and, with all of the hubbub from The Fed today, is almost assuredly going to bottom tomorrow if it didn't already bottom today. Anyway, my point is...we're about to see another 2-4 week rally in all of the commodities. Yes, copper, crude and the grains are going to rally. More importantly, I think we can feel very confident that silver is not going much lower, if at all. In fact, I bet we saw the lows today, in the beatdown on the Globex. So, from here, what can we expect? Given that silver rallied almost 25% in July, during the last CCI rally, I think a reasonable target for silver is $44 before Labor Day.

Adding to the ammunition are the utterly amazing OI numbers in silver. The latest numbers are basis Monday and show a total open interest of just over 114,000 contracts. We almost certainly lost a few more today. For perspective, the last time OI was this low was late June...right about the time the CCI bottomed!

So, there you go. I may look like a complete fool by this time tomorrow. Rigged and manipulated markets can do that to you. But, I'm sticking with it. $44 silver by Labor Day.

Have a great evening!! TF

10:05 am EDT UPDATE:

I do not have a new post this morning for two reasons:

1) I want to leave this current post as the "main story" for most of the day.

2) I'm busy watching an epic and breathtaking battle in the Dec11 gold contract.

As I type, our side is winning but just barely. Watch the 1780 level very, very closely. Above there, The Cartel will be forced to give up and retreat to safer ground. It looks almost certain that this is going to happen. As I watch the order flow, the bids are very strong and unrelenting. The chart looks like it's about to squeeze them, too.

I've got a last of 1777. Stay close and keep your fingers crossed! TF

11:50 EDT UPDATE:

The global stampede of investors rushing into the safety of a 6000-year old currency has completely overrun The Cartel's defensive positions between 1770 and 1780. I have a last of 1789 in the Dec11. If headlines don't change in the next six hours, expect explosive gains in the overnight Asian trade, too. Personally, I'm darn glad I took off my spreads yesterday and went "open-ended". Looks like lots of gains to come!

Speaking of which, isn't it great to see silver participating...FINALLY! The chart below was printed before the recent surge through $39. Keep the faith. Silver looks great!

More as conditions dictate. TF

1:05 EDT UPDATE:

30 minutes to go on this historic day. Gold is $20 off its highs but I'm not at all concerned. In fact, the chart below might be one of my all-time favorites. All of the smarty-pant shorts who had faith that their evil Cartel buddies could hold the line at 1780 just got smoked! HAHAHA! Rather predictably, the "market" has given back the $20 it added on the back of the short's pain and that's OK. Nothing has fundamentally changed and its looking more and more likely that we'll head into the overnight session with " a lotta mo", just like Mr T!

Clubber Lang - Best Scenes! (From Rocky III, Mr. T)

Full update soon. TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  460 Comments

¤
Aug 10, 2011 - 12:36am

One Of These Days

Pink Floyd - One Of These Days
¤
Aug 10, 2011 - 12:43am

No Quarter

Led Zeppelin No Quarter 1973
¤
Aug 10, 2011 - 12:48am

YardBirds

The Yardbirds - For Your Love (1965) (Full version)
¤
Aug 10, 2011 - 12:52am

The White Knight is Talking Backwards

Jefferson Airplane -White Rabbit-
maravich44 TheGoodDoctor
Aug 10, 2011 - 12:53am

Wynter/JPM @The Good Doctor

Doc, this is just my take from earlier posted info on the Yahoo board. Apparently this group is angry and anxious to settle some scores. This guy Staley looks like the latest person that they want to FW, I don't think that he is a whistleblower(yet). To me the they are saying to BM and The Morgue, "come clean or else". P.S. his promo maybe just got f#$&ed.

Dr G
Aug 10, 2011 - 12:53am

You old guys and your stupid

You old guys and your stupid videos. Have the metals driven you mad?

Strongsidejedi maravich44
Aug 10, 2011 - 12:59am

wynter benton discussion & the end of the Federal Reserve Bank?

Guys,

I followed this Wynter Benton thing back when we were on the other board.

My guess here is that the Wynter Benton thing is a public mirage of the fight between olde worlde money and new world money.

I reached the conclusion that Wynter Benton might be taunting the JPM Investment people under Jes Staley's leadership. Staley was looking like a possible replacement for Dimon in the event Dimon moved to Sec of the Treasury. Unfortunate for them, Tim Geithner is still at Treasury.

Bank of America is the cannon fodder for Chase.

I'm thinking that we're looking at different skirmish lines of the same battle for control.

One part of the battle is the skirmish over the former Countrywide Home Mortgage lousy sub-prime and no documents loans. Those loans were folded into BAC's portfolio when Ken Lewis made the mistake of acquiring Countrywide without having the FDIC first wash and filter the risk. Chase acquired WAMU AFTER FDIC closed WAMU first. So, FDIC and WAMU got stuck with their own junk loans and docs.

Since Fed Reserve Bank does not have the gold or silver, Chase does. Doesn't that mean that Chase is effectively the replacement FOR the FRB?

TheGoodDoctor
Aug 10, 2011 - 12:59am

Found the Rickards

Found the Rickards thing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=L-yST98PMkU

Well I can't get the link to expand but here is the link.

Mudsharkbytes
Aug 10, 2011 - 1:03am

$44 by Labor Day?

I hope Turd is right, but i'll believe it when I see it. I've gotten so used to the constant disappointmen of seeing silver repeatedly smacked down every time it rises that it'll take some time before I believe any of it's gains aren't transitory. If it really achieves $44 by Labor Day, then where might it be by the end of December?

Jasper Puddlemaker kliguy38
Aug 10, 2011 - 1:07am

@ kliguy38

Re: miners

They look and feel different to me lately. They appear to be diverging from the general market in that they are showing more strength than before (a major point). JS recently said the big boys will soon be selling some physical in order to move into the shares. Public sentiment towards shares is low (a promising thing), and we know they are severely undervalued compared to where metals are.

Yes, it feels different to me. Something is changing. Hope I am right. I don't know about the timing, but I have been accumulating larger positions on this dip.

Subscribe or login to read all comments.

Contribute

Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events Week of 7/22

7/23 10:00 ET Existing home sales
7/23 10:00 ET Richmond Fed Manu Idx
7/24 9:45 ET flash Markit PMIs
7/25 8:00 ET Count Draghi/ECB policy meeting
7/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
7/25 8:30 ET Wholesale Inventories
7/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP first guess

Key Economic Events Week of 7/15

7/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed Index
7/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Import Price Index
7/16 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
7/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
7/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
7/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
7/19 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 7/8

7/9 8:45 ET Fed Stress Conference, three Goon speeches
7/10 8:30 ET CGP Hump-Hawk prepared remarks
7/10 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk House
7/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
7/10 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/11 8:30 ET CPI
7/11 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk Senate
7/11 12:30 ET Goon Williams
7/12 8:30 ET PPI

Key Economic Events Week of 7/1

7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
7/2 6:35 ET Goon Williams
7/3 8:15 ET ADP June employment
7/3 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
7/3 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
7/3 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
7/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
7/4 US Market Holiday
7/5 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 6/24

6/25 10:00 ET New Home Sales
6/25 1:00 pm ET Chief Goon Powell
6/25 5:30 pm ET Goon Bullard
6/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
6/27 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/28 8:30 ET Personal Income and Consumer Spending
6/28 8:30 ET Core Inflation
6/28 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 6/17

6/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
6/19 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/19 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
6/21 9:45 ET Markit flash June PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 6/10

6/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
6/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
6/13 8:30 ET Import Price Index
6/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
6/14 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
6/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 6/3

6/4 All day Fed conference in Chicago
6/4 10:00 ET Factory Order
6/5 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
6/5 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
6/6 8:30 ET US Trace Deficit
6/7 8:30 ET BLSBS
6/7 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 5/28

5/28 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
5/30 8:30 ET Q1 GDP 2nd guess
5/31 8:30 ET Personal Income and Consumer Spending
5/31 8:30 ET Core Inflation
5/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 5/20

5/20 7:00 pm ET CGP speech
5/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
5/22 2:00 ET FOMC minutes
5/23 9:45 ET Markit PMIs
5/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods

Recent Comments

Forum Discussion

by HappyNow, 23 min 38 sec ago
by Scarecrow, 5 hours 48 min ago
by zman, 8 hours 34 min ago
by zman, 8 hours 42 min ago
by silver66, 11 hours 4 min ago
randomness