Silver to $44

Tue, Aug 9, 2011 - 9:53pm

In the past 24 hours, we can now count four, separate attempts at the 1770 level by the December11 gold contract. We can also count four, immediate Cartel actions to hammer price back down. However, the lows are getting higher and the pressure is mounting. Will the Forces of Evil be able to contain gold through the night and into tomorrow or will they again be forced to retreat to higher ground? I suspect we will know very soon.

Take a look at these three December gold charts. I've tried to draw the same trendline on each. Note the savagery of the beatdowns as gold eclipses 1770. Santa warned us weeks ago that The Cartel also knows that 1764 is a very significant level and will thus defend it vigorously. They have and they are. Will they be successful? You'll know by following the trendline I've drawn and watching the triangle close. If I had to guess, our Asian friends also see this chart pattern and they will make a run at putting the EE into a submission hold later tonight. We'll see. It will be great theater.

Now, what I really wanted to talk about this evening is silver. I've scoured the internet for the most reliable and accurate analysis of today's events. I of course found it at Trader Dan's site. Please take a moment to read it and then come back. Go ahead, I'll wait.

Ahh, glad you're back. OK, where was I? Oh yea...silver. I've lifted the most important chart that Dan posted and re-printed it below. (Thanks, Dan!)

Notice that the CCI has averaged one big drop per month for the past five months. Each drop has lasted from 4-7 trading days and has been followed by a rather significant rally. The current drop just finished its fifth day and, with all of the hubbub from The Fed today, is almost assuredly going to bottom tomorrow if it didn't already bottom today. Anyway, my point is...we're about to see another 2-4 week rally in all of the commodities. Yes, copper, crude and the grains are going to rally. More importantly, I think we can feel very confident that silver is not going much lower, if at all. In fact, I bet we saw the lows today, in the beatdown on the Globex. So, from here, what can we expect? Given that silver rallied almost 25% in July, during the last CCI rally, I think a reasonable target for silver is $44 before Labor Day.

Adding to the ammunition are the utterly amazing OI numbers in silver. The latest numbers are basis Monday and show a total open interest of just over 114,000 contracts. We almost certainly lost a few more today. For perspective, the last time OI was this low was late June...right about the time the CCI bottomed!

So, there you go. I may look like a complete fool by this time tomorrow. Rigged and manipulated markets can do that to you. But, I'm sticking with it. $44 silver by Labor Day.

Have a great evening!! TF

10:05 am EDT UPDATE:

I do not have a new post this morning for two reasons:

1) I want to leave this current post as the "main story" for most of the day.

2) I'm busy watching an epic and breathtaking battle in the Dec11 gold contract.

As I type, our side is winning but just barely. Watch the 1780 level very, very closely. Above there, The Cartel will be forced to give up and retreat to safer ground. It looks almost certain that this is going to happen. As I watch the order flow, the bids are very strong and unrelenting. The chart looks like it's about to squeeze them, too.

I've got a last of 1777. Stay close and keep your fingers crossed! TF


The global stampede of investors rushing into the safety of a 6000-year old currency has completely overrun The Cartel's defensive positions between 1770 and 1780. I have a last of 1789 in the Dec11. If headlines don't change in the next six hours, expect explosive gains in the overnight Asian trade, too. Personally, I'm darn glad I took off my spreads yesterday and went "open-ended". Looks like lots of gains to come!

Speaking of which, isn't it great to see silver participating...FINALLY! The chart below was printed before the recent surge through $39. Keep the faith. Silver looks great!

More as conditions dictate. TF


30 minutes to go on this historic day. Gold is $20 off its highs but I'm not at all concerned. In fact, the chart below might be one of my all-time favorites. All of the smarty-pant shorts who had faith that their evil Cartel buddies could hold the line at 1780 just got smoked! HAHAHA! Rather predictably, the "market" has given back the $20 it added on the back of the short's pain and that's OK. Nothing has fundamentally changed and its looking more and more likely that we'll head into the overnight session with " a lotta mo", just like Mr T!

Clubber Lang - Best Scenes! (From Rocky III, Mr. T)

Full update soon. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


aurum argentum
Aug 9, 2011 - 10:47pm

Can't anyone Krill

Jamie Diamon?

I'd love to bed Blythe. She is hot. Maybe she could throw me a lady liberty afterwards.

Aug 9, 2011 - 10:47pm

Thank you Turd

You sure know how to lift spirits when they are down brother! Thank you for articulating what we all believe to be true. May market forces prevail over the manipulators.

Aug 9, 2011 - 10:48pm

Shill, thank you for talking

Shill, thank you for talking about your GDX calls last week. It made me look at them and I bought a few way OTM jan12 .... ..Crossing my fingers... .....

Aug 9, 2011 - 10:52pm

Ask and ye shall receive,

Ask and ye shall receive, ewc. Ye have not because ye ask not. Ask and it shall be given unto ye.

Do ye understand? :D

Aug 9, 2011 - 10:53pm

Same here ginger

Been way OTM for a while now, bought in @ .10 with a 95 strike, already up 56% so far so good :).

Best of luck friend.

Aug 9, 2011 - 10:56pm

Blythe is quite a formidable opponent,

of that there's little doubt. Give the woman her due, she's as tenacious as many here and more competitive than most. But unlike us she's on the wrong side, and on the wrong side of history.

All phyzz stackers owe her a debt of gratitude, and oddly I find myself meaning that. She's been ruthlessly effective in an operation that has kept the price of silver stupid affordable during the very interval I've been accumulating mine.

The trading team? They must not feel nearly the same, and I can't fault them at all. Ditto Miner investors, of which I'm one. Let's just say that part of me feels no gratitude at all and really hopes she's indicted for fraud under the RICO statute, tomorrow.

Hey what ever happened to all the class action and other lawsuits against the Morgue and HSBS? Deafening silence on those.

Aug 9, 2011 - 10:59pm

Yeah.. I think I bought right

Yeah.. I think I bought right behind you .... .12 at 95 ......... not up as much as you though quite yet! ....Very selfless of you to share a Good Thing ...I know I wouldn't have caught this one otherwise! ;)

Aug 9, 2011 - 11:00pm

"Ye have not because ye ask not"

Me gets ye! I will be sure to repeat my order a second time

Thanks Ginger

Aug 9, 2011 - 11:03pm

Shut the fuck up with

Shut the fuck up with "bedding" with Blythe. You have two heads, start thinking with the one that has a brain!

Aug 9, 2011 - 11:03pm

Ugh.. ..I've read too much

Ugh.. ..I've read too much today and am foggy headed from all the analysis. ....From reading Hubbart and others it seems we are on the brink of taking off here ...but this near-term take off isn't going to be 'The' takeoff, true? ....Steady rise here for a few weeks mixed with some consolidation/pullbacks ....and then a pretty sizeable smackdown is in the offing late August I think and then it's To The Moon time.. ......right?. ...wrong? ............crystal ball anyone..?

Seems this is what I get from Hubbartt ...but I don't have his paid service yet and he may have changed his mind since his latest 'free' commentary was released before the downgrade. ....

Edit To Add: TF's analysis seems to support my thinking of ..up now, smackdown soon, huge rally later. ..I'm going with that. :D

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