Silver to $44

Tue, Aug 9, 2011 - 9:53pm

In the past 24 hours, we can now count four, separate attempts at the 1770 level by the December11 gold contract. We can also count four, immediate Cartel actions to hammer price back down. However, the lows are getting higher and the pressure is mounting. Will the Forces of Evil be able to contain gold through the night and into tomorrow or will they again be forced to retreat to higher ground? I suspect we will know very soon.

Take a look at these three December gold charts. I've tried to draw the same trendline on each. Note the savagery of the beatdowns as gold eclipses 1770. Santa warned us weeks ago that The Cartel also knows that 1764 is a very significant level and will thus defend it vigorously. They have and they are. Will they be successful? You'll know by following the trendline I've drawn and watching the triangle close. If I had to guess, our Asian friends also see this chart pattern and they will make a run at putting the EE into a submission hold later tonight. We'll see. It will be great theater.

Now, what I really wanted to talk about this evening is silver. I've scoured the internet for the most reliable and accurate analysis of today's events. I of course found it at Trader Dan's site. Please take a moment to read it and then come back. Go ahead, I'll wait.

Ahh, glad you're back. OK, where was I? Oh yea...silver. I've lifted the most important chart that Dan posted and re-printed it below. (Thanks, Dan!)

Notice that the CCI has averaged one big drop per month for the past five months. Each drop has lasted from 4-7 trading days and has been followed by a rather significant rally. The current drop just finished its fifth day and, with all of the hubbub from The Fed today, is almost assuredly going to bottom tomorrow if it didn't already bottom today. Anyway, my point is...we're about to see another 2-4 week rally in all of the commodities. Yes, copper, crude and the grains are going to rally. More importantly, I think we can feel very confident that silver is not going much lower, if at all. In fact, I bet we saw the lows today, in the beatdown on the Globex. So, from here, what can we expect? Given that silver rallied almost 25% in July, during the last CCI rally, I think a reasonable target for silver is $44 before Labor Day.

Adding to the ammunition are the utterly amazing OI numbers in silver. The latest numbers are basis Monday and show a total open interest of just over 114,000 contracts. We almost certainly lost a few more today. For perspective, the last time OI was this low was late June...right about the time the CCI bottomed!

So, there you go. I may look like a complete fool by this time tomorrow. Rigged and manipulated markets can do that to you. But, I'm sticking with it. $44 silver by Labor Day.

Have a great evening!! TF

10:05 am EDT UPDATE:

I do not have a new post this morning for two reasons:

1) I want to leave this current post as the "main story" for most of the day.

2) I'm busy watching an epic and breathtaking battle in the Dec11 gold contract.

As I type, our side is winning but just barely. Watch the 1780 level very, very closely. Above there, The Cartel will be forced to give up and retreat to safer ground. It looks almost certain that this is going to happen. As I watch the order flow, the bids are very strong and unrelenting. The chart looks like it's about to squeeze them, too.

I've got a last of 1777. Stay close and keep your fingers crossed! TF


The global stampede of investors rushing into the safety of a 6000-year old currency has completely overrun The Cartel's defensive positions between 1770 and 1780. I have a last of 1789 in the Dec11. If headlines don't change in the next six hours, expect explosive gains in the overnight Asian trade, too. Personally, I'm darn glad I took off my spreads yesterday and went "open-ended". Looks like lots of gains to come!

Speaking of which, isn't it great to see silver participating...FINALLY! The chart below was printed before the recent surge through $39. Keep the faith. Silver looks great!

More as conditions dictate. TF


30 minutes to go on this historic day. Gold is $20 off its highs but I'm not at all concerned. In fact, the chart below might be one of my all-time favorites. All of the smarty-pant shorts who had faith that their evil Cartel buddies could hold the line at 1780 just got smoked! HAHAHA! Rather predictably, the "market" has given back the $20 it added on the back of the short's pain and that's OK. Nothing has fundamentally changed and its looking more and more likely that we'll head into the overnight session with " a lotta mo", just like Mr T!

Clubber Lang - Best Scenes! (From Rocky III, Mr. T)

Full update soon. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Aug 10, 2011 - 8:24am

@Tom L "All I can do is

@Tom L "All I can do is emanate good will, which is a pretty piss-poor substitute for a shotgun."

Get a license Tom. Join a clay shooting club, a license should only take a few weeks. I did this and now have many shotguns, I know how to shoot well and I feel quite safe, nothing says 'Fuck Off" better than a black SuperNova pump shotgun!

Aug 10, 2011 - 8:25am


If we are breaking out here - $2000 is on the way - making it safe to get into mining stocks!!!!

Aug 10, 2011 - 8:28am

Tom L Connect the trendline -

Tom L

Connect the trendline - joining 40.20 to 39.53 and 38.01 in hourly charts - that seems to be the reason silver resisted at 38.60 (for now)

Thanks for your chart - great help for me since I have just started learning trendlines.

Aug 10, 2011 - 8:30am

Tom L

I've been following your charting efforts in Eric O's gold miner forum. Nice work! . . . and excellent analysis of the current silver breakout! A hat tip to you Sir! Keep on charting!

btw - props to you for your rural lifestyle choice. Most people go Galt, . . . you gone Goat!

ogie ogilthorpe rishi
Aug 10, 2011 - 8:32am

US MINT - Halting The Sale of Gold Collector Coins

...anybody just hear this on CNBC?? What gives??

Aug 10, 2011 - 8:35am

U.S. Mint halts sales of gold

U.S. Mint halts sales of gold collector coins

Tue Aug 9, 2011 10:15pm GMT

* Suspension comes as gold prices reach record level

* Affects numismatic collector coins, not bullion coins

By Jane Sutton

MIAMI, Aug 9 (Reuters) - A spike in gold prices prompted the U.S. Mint to suspend the online sale of gold collector coins on Tuesday for the first time in recent memory, a mint spokesman said.

The move affects only the gold numismatic products sold to collectors and not the gold bullion coins sold to investors, Mint spokesman Mike White said from Washington.

Sales were suspended at midday for re-pricing, which was expected to be completed by late on Wednesday, he said.

Asked when that had last happened, White said, "not in recent history that I can remember."

The American Eagle bullion coins for investors are sold only to authorized wholesalers -- not directly to the public -- and move with the London spot prices. Their sale was not affected, White said.

Prices for the gold numismatic coins sold directly to collectors and hobbyists include a surcharge and are based on a weekly average. The Mint has always reserved the right to halt those sales when the market price for bullion approaches the price of the collector coins, but no one could remember when -- if ever -- it had actually exercised that right, White said.

It happened on Tuesday, as worries of more government intervention in European and U.S. debt crises pushed gold prices to a record near $1,800 an ounce before settling lower as the stock market bounced higher.

Numismatic gold coins include American Eagle proof sets that are specially minted to produce a fancier finish, as well as limited-edition commemorative coins honoring American institutions, culture and history. The surcharges on those go to support organizations such as museums and historical sites. (Reporting by Jane Sutton; Editing by Cynthia Osterman)

Paladex margaritatime
Aug 10, 2011 - 8:37am

Next full moon is August 13.

Next full moon is August 13. New moon is August 28.

Aug 10, 2011 - 8:37am

Seal team 6

Probably belongs on the forum, but here is my 2c.

The seals do risky things. Some of them get killed.

The ones that get killed need to be accounted for, about every 2 to 4 years we have had large choppers crash full of special forces, I believe its just a way to account for the deaths on other missions.

Right after major hostilities stopped in the Iraq war we lost a big chopper full of special forces, if I remember correctly that chopper crashed carrying more people than it was supposed to carry.

The familiy gets told that their loved one crashed in a helicopter rather than killed on a 4 man mission to scount in someplace line IRAN or North Korea.... some place where we should not have troups.....

If you've been watching their is a pattern here....

Aug 10, 2011 - 8:42am

U.S. Mint halts sales of gold collector coins

Very very good sign of supply depletion.

This could get messy.

Aug 10, 2011 - 8:44am

Chicago now has the highest murder rate in the nation

Literally twice that of Fun City, the Big Apple. How odd Chicago is the murder champ because, after all, it's been a felony for anyone to possess a handgun legally there since '95.

Any objective observer can see how 'gun control" is really just murder enablement: it NEVER stops those who own guns illegally and use them to prey on those denuded of their right to protect themselves. Note: Commies just "gun control" and their myriad agents work toward the goal of leaving us utterly defenseless against the burgeoning Tyranny of the State. Ahhh Chicago, the Land of Stinkin'. And now with Rahm as mayor, how perfect is that? That silly piker Blogo out, replaced by a proper crime Kingpin. Nice upgrade. If you live in Chicago: leave while you can. That recent "flash mob" at the lake? It's the shape of things to come.

Meanwhile, did you know Kennesaw, GA passed mandatory gun ownership laws in 1982? OMG, those crazy, gun toting, Bible thumping crackers, what a wild west show it must be down there!

Uhhhh, no. Not hardly. Not in the real world. At the very time you take your life in your hands venturing into certain parts of Commietown, Kennesaw has been enjoying a 75% reduction in violent crime.

You do the math.

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