Silver to $44

Tue, Aug 9, 2011 - 9:53pm

In the past 24 hours, we can now count four, separate attempts at the 1770 level by the December11 gold contract. We can also count four, immediate Cartel actions to hammer price back down. However, the lows are getting higher and the pressure is mounting. Will the Forces of Evil be able to contain gold through the night and into tomorrow or will they again be forced to retreat to higher ground? I suspect we will know very soon.

Take a look at these three December gold charts. I've tried to draw the same trendline on each. Note the savagery of the beatdowns as gold eclipses 1770. Santa warned us weeks ago that The Cartel also knows that 1764 is a very significant level and will thus defend it vigorously. They have and they are. Will they be successful? You'll know by following the trendline I've drawn and watching the triangle close. If I had to guess, our Asian friends also see this chart pattern and they will make a run at putting the EE into a submission hold later tonight. We'll see. It will be great theater.

Now, what I really wanted to talk about this evening is silver. I've scoured the internet for the most reliable and accurate analysis of today's events. I of course found it at Trader Dan's site. Please take a moment to read it and then come back. Go ahead, I'll wait.

Ahh, glad you're back. OK, where was I? Oh yea...silver. I've lifted the most important chart that Dan posted and re-printed it below. (Thanks, Dan!)

Notice that the CCI has averaged one big drop per month for the past five months. Each drop has lasted from 4-7 trading days and has been followed by a rather significant rally. The current drop just finished its fifth day and, with all of the hubbub from The Fed today, is almost assuredly going to bottom tomorrow if it didn't already bottom today. Anyway, my point is...we're about to see another 2-4 week rally in all of the commodities. Yes, copper, crude and the grains are going to rally. More importantly, I think we can feel very confident that silver is not going much lower, if at all. In fact, I bet we saw the lows today, in the beatdown on the Globex. So, from here, what can we expect? Given that silver rallied almost 25% in July, during the last CCI rally, I think a reasonable target for silver is $44 before Labor Day.

Adding to the ammunition are the utterly amazing OI numbers in silver. The latest numbers are basis Monday and show a total open interest of just over 114,000 contracts. We almost certainly lost a few more today. For perspective, the last time OI was this low was late June...right about the time the CCI bottomed!

So, there you go. I may look like a complete fool by this time tomorrow. Rigged and manipulated markets can do that to you. But, I'm sticking with it. $44 silver by Labor Day.

Have a great evening!! TF

10:05 am EDT UPDATE:

I do not have a new post this morning for two reasons:

1) I want to leave this current post as the "main story" for most of the day.

2) I'm busy watching an epic and breathtaking battle in the Dec11 gold contract.

As I type, our side is winning but just barely. Watch the 1780 level very, very closely. Above there, The Cartel will be forced to give up and retreat to safer ground. It looks almost certain that this is going to happen. As I watch the order flow, the bids are very strong and unrelenting. The chart looks like it's about to squeeze them, too.

I've got a last of 1777. Stay close and keep your fingers crossed! TF


The global stampede of investors rushing into the safety of a 6000-year old currency has completely overrun The Cartel's defensive positions between 1770 and 1780. I have a last of 1789 in the Dec11. If headlines don't change in the next six hours, expect explosive gains in the overnight Asian trade, too. Personally, I'm darn glad I took off my spreads yesterday and went "open-ended". Looks like lots of gains to come!

Speaking of which, isn't it great to see silver participating...FINALLY! The chart below was printed before the recent surge through $39. Keep the faith. Silver looks great!

More as conditions dictate. TF


30 minutes to go on this historic day. Gold is $20 off its highs but I'm not at all concerned. In fact, the chart below might be one of my all-time favorites. All of the smarty-pant shorts who had faith that their evil Cartel buddies could hold the line at 1780 just got smoked! HAHAHA! Rather predictably, the "market" has given back the $20 it added on the back of the short's pain and that's OK. Nothing has fundamentally changed and its looking more and more likely that we'll head into the overnight session with " a lotta mo", just like Mr T!

Clubber Lang - Best Scenes! (From Rocky III, Mr. T)

Full update soon. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Aug 10, 2011 - 7:50am

Last on Team 6 for the day

Yesterday one of the team here made what now sounds to me like a brilliant comment about how this may have been the Obottom admins greatest mistake. Realize that anyone in the know in the US military knows what happened, and should also realize it could happen to them. God knows how many of our sons and daughters, brothers and sisters, fathers and mothers, uncles and aunts, and friends have had their lives stolen from them just like this over the past 10 years. The EE may have inserted some illuminazi errand boyz in the top slots, but they don't contol the countyside. The Obottom Posse just made about 3 million more serious enemies who know how to get 'er done. Good luck with that Barry.

By the way, if you ever saw or heard a Chinook up close, you might pee yourself- - it's a big, loud, tough machine. While an RPG could hole one and possibly cause serious damage, the notion that an RPG was the cause of this chopper's complete destruction is laughable on its face. And pay particular attention to this: Team 6 didn't have their usual ride. Extremely telling; breaks protocol. God I wish they never got on that thing, looking back this was an obvious set up for slaughter.

Excerpt from the Reuters piece I linked above:

"The NATO-led International Security Assistance Force said Monday the CH-47 Chinook helicopter was fired on by a rocket-propelled grenade while carrying the U.S. service members and commandos to the scene of an ongoing fight.

One of the many issues observers expected to be investigated was why the elite fighters traveled in the Army-owned chopper, instead of a MH-47 more commonly used by special forces.

There are thousands of U.S. special forces operating in Afghanistan and they have been involved in more than 2,000 operations to go after specific militants over the past year, according to Pentagon estimates.

But rocket-propelled grenade attacks like this one rarely take down a helicopter and had not killed so many U.S. forces at once in Afghanistan until now."

Tom L
Aug 10, 2011 - 7:51am

@GoodDoC: Rickards interview

I think this is the one you were looking for that I posted in another thread yesterday. It's from the CBC

Starts at around 34 minute mark.


aurum argentum
Aug 10, 2011 - 7:55am

HB and Hard Rain

HB, i am jealous too. But, I did buy the Monterey Pop Festival DVD set and I've been watching it regularly since buying the set 3+ years ago. The outakes DVD is remarkable. I was a kid selling lemonade to all the non moving cars on their way to woodstock at summer camp in '69. I did not know that was woodstock until my paerents and i were talking about that time 6 years later. "Oh, THAT was what all the noise was"...They went to woodstock. How i didn't put 2+2 together was crazy.

Aug 10, 2011 - 8:01am

And now, back to our regularly scheduled programming

Good morning my lovely!

POSX future is now back down to 74.08

Aug 10, 2011 - 8:04am


Should be interesting to see how the switch pullers treat the POSX$ this morning.

Aug 10, 2011 - 8:08am

Little brother feeling better today, will it last?

Let's get moving there buddy, you've got a Turd prediction to achieve by Labor Day.

Aug 10, 2011 - 8:12am
Tom L BlackHawk
Aug 10, 2011 - 8:16am


And it should go without saying around here, but if the people of London were armed with something more than sticks and good ol' fashioned hardhededness (I'm thinking something chambered in .40S&W or bigger) that the 'riots' wouldn't be targeting private property at all.

All of this is tragic on a scale that's nearly unfathomable. Good luck to anyone trying to protect themselves without the proper tools. All I can do is emanate good will, which is a pretty piss-poor substitute for a shotgun.


Aug 10, 2011 - 8:16am


Isn't there a "conspiracy alley" in the forums? Why you dropping all that stuff here on main st?

Tom L
Aug 10, 2011 - 8:20am

It looks like we are breaking

It looks like we are breaking out of that huge downtrend established at $42.20. This is a significant development along with the latest attempt by gold to bust through the $1764 angel.

Hourly Silver Chart Here:


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