Silver to $44

460
129
Tue, Aug 9, 2011 - 9:53pm

In the past 24 hours, we can now count four, separate attempts at the 1770 level by the December11 gold contract. We can also count four, immediate Cartel actions to hammer price back down. However, the lows are getting higher and the pressure is mounting. Will the Forces of Evil be able to contain gold through the night and into tomorrow or will they again be forced to retreat to higher ground? I suspect we will know very soon.

Take a look at these three December gold charts. I've tried to draw the same trendline on each. Note the savagery of the beatdowns as gold eclipses 1770. Santa warned us weeks ago that The Cartel also knows that 1764 is a very significant level and will thus defend it vigorously. They have and they are. Will they be successful? You'll know by following the trendline I've drawn and watching the triangle close. If I had to guess, our Asian friends also see this chart pattern and they will make a run at putting the EE into a submission hold later tonight. We'll see. It will be great theater.

Now, what I really wanted to talk about this evening is silver. I've scoured the internet for the most reliable and accurate analysis of today's events. I of course found it at Trader Dan's site. Please take a moment to read it and then come back. Go ahead, I'll wait.

https://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/08/s-500-update-us-dollar-sacrificed.html

Ahh, glad you're back. OK, where was I? Oh yea...silver. I've lifted the most important chart that Dan posted and re-printed it below. (Thanks, Dan!)

Notice that the CCI has averaged one big drop per month for the past five months. Each drop has lasted from 4-7 trading days and has been followed by a rather significant rally. The current drop just finished its fifth day and, with all of the hubbub from The Fed today, is almost assuredly going to bottom tomorrow if it didn't already bottom today. Anyway, my point is...we're about to see another 2-4 week rally in all of the commodities. Yes, copper, crude and the grains are going to rally. More importantly, I think we can feel very confident that silver is not going much lower, if at all. In fact, I bet we saw the lows today, in the beatdown on the Globex. So, from here, what can we expect? Given that silver rallied almost 25% in July, during the last CCI rally, I think a reasonable target for silver is $44 before Labor Day.

Adding to the ammunition are the utterly amazing OI numbers in silver. The latest numbers are basis Monday and show a total open interest of just over 114,000 contracts. We almost certainly lost a few more today. For perspective, the last time OI was this low was late June...right about the time the CCI bottomed!

So, there you go. I may look like a complete fool by this time tomorrow. Rigged and manipulated markets can do that to you. But, I'm sticking with it. $44 silver by Labor Day.

Have a great evening!! TF

10:05 am EDT UPDATE:

I do not have a new post this morning for two reasons:

1) I want to leave this current post as the "main story" for most of the day.

2) I'm busy watching an epic and breathtaking battle in the Dec11 gold contract.

As I type, our side is winning but just barely. Watch the 1780 level very, very closely. Above there, The Cartel will be forced to give up and retreat to safer ground. It looks almost certain that this is going to happen. As I watch the order flow, the bids are very strong and unrelenting. The chart looks like it's about to squeeze them, too.

I've got a last of 1777. Stay close and keep your fingers crossed! TF

11:50 EDT UPDATE:

The global stampede of investors rushing into the safety of a 6000-year old currency has completely overrun The Cartel's defensive positions between 1770 and 1780. I have a last of 1789 in the Dec11. If headlines don't change in the next six hours, expect explosive gains in the overnight Asian trade, too. Personally, I'm darn glad I took off my spreads yesterday and went "open-ended". Looks like lots of gains to come!

Speaking of which, isn't it great to see silver participating...FINALLY! The chart below was printed before the recent surge through $39. Keep the faith. Silver looks great!

More as conditions dictate. TF

1:05 EDT UPDATE:

30 minutes to go on this historic day. Gold is $20 off its highs but I'm not at all concerned. In fact, the chart below might be one of my all-time favorites. All of the smarty-pant shorts who had faith that their evil Cartel buddies could hold the line at 1780 just got smoked! HAHAHA! Rather predictably, the "market" has given back the $20 it added on the back of the short's pain and that's OK. Nothing has fundamentally changed and its looking more and more likely that we'll head into the overnight session with " a lotta mo", just like Mr T!

Clubber Lang - Best Scenes! (From Rocky III, Mr. T)

Full update soon. TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  460 Comments

Hard Rain
Aug 10, 2011 - 7:36am

@HB : Monterey Pop Festival

Now I am insanely jealous! That had to be incredible. Jimi's coming out party in the US. I still marvel at his genius.

That right there is worth skipping graduation, or just about anything else to be there. That right there is pure gold (pun intended).

Rain

Larry
Aug 10, 2011 - 7:36am

Maravich, they aren't even breaking the "law".

After posting the above I went back and read the thread from beginning (usually do that first) and saw where the Good Doc and Strongside Jedi were all over the BAC discussion last night (while I sawed logs).

Whether HSBC or BAC fails doesn't matter to the Cartel. They will protect their own boys that run them. Moving manure around just allows the banksters a free pass on debt and legal obligations. They make money either way - if their risk (crime) makes money they keep it. If it blows up they "sell" the bad parts to 'socialize' the losses and get reimbursed by the Cartel.

A seeming no-lose situation for the banksters... until the end. Then, they will lose that which they should value most.

The Hat Tip
Aug 10, 2011 - 7:39am

Stealth QE3

Check out this video:

https://video.ft.com/v/1101860017001/QE3-by-another-name-

FT pundits describe in the video how the FED can actually engage in stealthy backdoor QE3 even though Bernanke didn't announce any significant quantitative easing.

They argue that by promising not to raise the interest rates for two years, the FED can refinance their debt cheaply and buy long-dated mortgage bonds with cheap prices.

maravich44ewc58
Aug 10, 2011 - 7:41am

@ewc58

Maybe Barry could appoint a "Missing Money Czar". O.J. would be perfect.

mrgneiss
Aug 10, 2011 - 7:44am

@ Silver Foil Hat - thanks

@ Silver Foil Hat - thanks for that link. I've been following WB's posts as well, at first I was skeptical, but many of "her" predictions panned out, and "she" seems to become active and start posting before a big move, as I agree with Turd we'll have over the next six weeks. If you look at Jesse's weekly charts you'll see silver usually declines into options expiration before a delivery month, then takes off, which means we have a week or so left of bottoming then a nice rise.

https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-YdN8XOXsqss/TkGbGLWU2zI/AAAAAAAARhs/_cU4SaaaMgM/s1600/silverweekly6.PNG

silver foil hatmaravich44
Aug 10, 2011 - 7:46am

ewc..

only if it was lost on a golf course.

Boardwalk
Aug 10, 2011 - 7:47am

Deleted

Linking skills not what they need to be.

silver foil hatTheGoodDoctor
Aug 10, 2011 - 7:48am

@TheGoodDoctor -Interesting

Not sure if this relates regarding the "thermonuclear" reference:

https://www.theundergroundinvestor.com/2011/07/the-global-physical-gold-silver-reserves-race-is-the-new-nuclear-arms-race/

There was speculation that WB is "working for" an international sovereign fund or government (or individuals within that gov't).

They are reported to be a bunch of former traders who worked for blythe that blythe screwed over.... now they are getting their revenge.

For those who don't have time to click on the link provided, here's the start / conclusion of the approx. 2 page article:

The old Cold War USA-USSR nuclear arms race has been replaced by the East-West Central Bank battle to accumulate physical gold and physical silver reserves. While Western Central Banks and their puppet bullion banks have distracted and goaded private citizens with the invention of fraudulent bogus paper gold and paper silver derivative products, including ETFs more recently, and paper futures contracts for a much longer period of time, they themselves have been making sure to avoid the very fraudulent paper products they have invented and have been diving headfirst into real physical precious metals.

......

However, the fundamental reasons that have driven gold from $250 to $1,600 and silver from $4 to its current $39 – $40 range are even stronger today than they were at the beginning of this precious metals bull. Therefore, it is impossible for a bubble in gold and silver to exist at their current prices and at this current time.
And for this reason, this is precisely why the global nuclear arms race has been replaced by a global physical gold race. Welcome to the new global war in precious metals.

BlackHawk
Aug 10, 2011 - 7:49am

London Turk and Sihk Vigilantes Draw the Line

Turks police own London district amid rioting

https://english.aljazeera.net/news/europe/2011/08/201181042453833564.html

Looks like ethnic communities are succeeding in protecting the lives and property in their communities, armed with nothing more than big sticks and the determination draw the line on rioters.

Knowing your neighbors and working together for common cause is the best defense in urban chaos.

maravich44Larry
Aug 10, 2011 - 7:50am

@ Larry Banksters.

..starting to eat their own (hopefully). We need the first domino to fall.

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