Because I Said So

Mon, Aug 8, 2011 - 3:34pm

Just when world markets were seeking assurance, our esteemed and supremely qualified leader uttered this:

"Markets will rise and fall, but this is the United States of America. No matter what some agency may say, we have always been and always will be a triple-A country," Obama said.

Nothing quite like living in FantasyLand. I hear it's particularly beautiful at this time of year.

How are you feeling about your gold and silver today? Let's see...Dow is down 506. The S&P is down 66. Crude's at $80. Copper and the grains have been pummeled. I know that silver is pissing you off but, considering the absolute demolition of everything that isn't gold, you should actually feel pretty good about it.

Speaking of silver, here's a 2-hour chart. When the selling of everything finally relents, silver will rally sharply. It will carry through 40.40 and it will move rapidly toward the highs of last week near $42.

However, gold is your clear, hands-down winner on the day. I have a last of $1714, up an amazing $62. There's more to come, too. First up, here's your 2-hour chart. It shows another "stair" higher.

More significantly, I've tried to recreate Trader Dan's weekly chart. Notice the clear breakout of the three-year channel. If it can hold in this area and extend gains...and it's hard to see why it wouldn't...a breakout of this magnitude is extraordinarily bullish. I can see why JPM came out with their "$2500 gold by year end" prediction today.

Three years is an awful long time so we must be careful. Gold could easily fall back into the channel and give us a "false breakout". However, the fundos are so strong at present that it may very well stay up and begin a rapidly accelerating extension higher. Watch this very closely as we may be about to be given a once-in-a-decade opportunity to make big fiat, real fast.

Lastly, I did switch a few things around today in order to take maximum advantage of what I see coming. In silver, I eliminated my Sep spreads and am now simply long the $42 calls. In gold, I dumped my October 1700 vs 1800 spreads and went long just the straight 1800 calls. I'm still long my December 1700 vs 1800 spreads, though.

Thanks to all who entered the new contest. If you haven't entered yet, you must pick the Comex closing price for this coming Friday in the September11 gold contract. Use the previous thread to post your guess. No entries submitted later than 5:00 EDT today will be accepted. Btw, if someone has a few extra minutes, would you please help The Turd by compiling all of the entries onto a spreadsheet? Thanks in advance to anyone who can help.

That's it for now. Keep the faith! TF

5:10 pm EDT UPDATE:

As the Globex closes, gold is back to $1722. I can't imagine that it won't make new highs overnight, particularly when Asia is in full swing at around midnight to 2:00 am EDT. For your comic relief, I present below something I just received from a friend. It's the opening paragraph of a "SPECIAL BULLETIN", just released by MSSB. What absolute fools these people are. They can't even spell "committee" correctly! If you are currently working with a traditionally-trained "financial advisor"....well, you know what they say about a fool and his money.

Latest Report from the Global Investment Policy Comittee: Downgrade .

GIC Special Bulletin: Impact of US Credit Downgrade on Markets

Applegate, Jeffrey – Morgan Stanley Smith Barney

August 8, 2011 6:37 PM GMT

The downgrade of US long-term debt by Standard and Poor’s, which is notable politically and historically, is having a prompt and negative short term effect on global financial markets. However, the next stop is not a recession—nor is it a drop in corporate profits. This a split decision on ratings, as the other two major ratings agencies, Moody’s and Fitch, have maintained their respective top-drawer ratings for US debt. As this latest sell-off abates, expect the markets to refocus on the fundamentals: an intact global business-cycle expansion that in our view, should deliver double-digit profit-growth into 2012. Our base case remains that a US economic rebound will occur in the second half of this year and that European policymakers will eventually be forced to take more decisive action to stabilize their debt markets and the euro.

11:25 pm EDT UPDATE:

These late nights are wiping me out. Holy cow, gold is up another $42 as I type at $1755! The S&P is down 28. Crude is down another $4. The grains and copper are getting smoked. At least silver is hanging in there at 39.12.

Two things. Watch gold overnight. Santa's number of the final frontier is 1764. For whatever reason, his numbers usually pan out and he's maintained for weeks that 1764 would be defended by The Cartel. In silver, watch this triangle play out. Silver could collapse through 38.50 and head toward 37 but I doubt it. I expect silver to instead charge through the down-sloping line overnight and begin heading higher. We'll see. Anything can happen. Have a great overnight. See you in the a.m. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Aug 8, 2011 - 11:42pm

@Tom L. I'm not as good of a

@Tom L. I'm not as good of a chart reader as I would like. I get the channels and all that but what I don't understand is looking at different monthly, hourly, minute charts like that. I mean I can follow them but I don't know why it is broken down like that. Or what the reason is for doing it and what the outcomes mean.

Is there any point in comparing multiple chart months or months vs hours vs minutes? So, I do understand when Turd breaks them down, just not why so many different charts and what to infer from the many different charts.

Anywho, yeah man I wasn't trying to say you were wrong, I was blown away at how quick the $5 to $10 moves have been. Long time til' 9:30 AM East Coast Time!

It's just that I feel like I am witnessing history in real time. And it is freaking me out!

Aug 8, 2011 - 11:42pm

Alright you party peoples, it's nighttime.

Tomorrow's another day.

Video unavailable
TheGoodDoctor SilverTree
Aug 8, 2011 - 11:43pm

@SilverTree Now there is a

@SilverTree Now there is a good distraction away from the moves on silver and gold! LOL.

Aug 8, 2011 - 11:46pm

Brothers - Silver is a

Brothers - Silver is a Precious metal first and then an industrial metal too.

In India, China and Latin America Silver also has religious sentiments attached to it.

China would not be advocating and recommending purchase of silver to it's people unless they know it's worth. The chances of China now coming in and buying silver at these bargain prices with their useless hoard of dollars is extremely likely. Along with the Rare Earths they could control the silver trade too. Monopoly by a country cannot be prevented . Especially so when their dollar reserves are being wiped out value wise.

Blythe & her criminal gang can try all they want only for a little longer to keep the price down (actual probability being they loose the public's money going short officially while buying privately to profit).

The silver shortage is clear .

IMHO Ben's easing should be announced later today

Aug 8, 2011 - 11:47pm

Thoughts about the rest of the world

Personally, I think our Asian brothers and sisters have just had enough of our American shenanigans and decided that if the world is going to pot they'd rather stick to gold, just like all their ancestors.

It's really very simple.

There's like millions of us and billions of them. Linear. Parabolic.

Gold is at $1,757.06. Holy shit.

Tom L
Aug 8, 2011 - 11:49pm


No worries, mate. No offense taken whatsoever.

As for the charts and time length, think of it this way, the longer the time period of the chart the stronger the analysis is in terms of macro market sentiment. If you see something on the 15 minute chart forming that looks good, pull back and look at it from the 30 or 60 minute timeframe to get a sense of what that formation means in a larger context. If you see a bullish development that fractals out into the larger time frames then you have yourself something important happening.

From Santa's recommendations in the past:

Traders should be using the 15 minute time frames, down from using the 60 minute charts. He made that call last year some time.

I use the 60 minute charts for trades that may require a couple of weeks to fill out.

Investors should be looking at daily and weekly charts only to identify entry and exit points. They'll tell you the medium and long term trends. In the end it is all tea-leaf reading, but it's fascinating and I can't stop doing it.


Aug 8, 2011 - 11:50pm

Jim Cramer just told his

Jim Cramer just told his viewers to buy gold.

Aug 8, 2011 - 11:50pm

@Irene Yeah I added an "F" in

@Irene Yeah I added an "F" in the middle of that. I'll let you guess what HFS! is. LOL.

Magpie BagOfGold
Aug 8, 2011 - 11:50pm


Great find! I'm fascinated by this:

The drawing by Leonhard Euller constructed over 230 years ago signifies an event occurring on September 26, 2011 that is so significant that the date has been placed on currency and no one can be told about it.

I read a bio on Euler, and if the map really is his, it's probably true. Whatta guy!

Aug 8, 2011 - 11:50pm

$6 fiat bux away from Santa's

$6 fiat bux away from Santa's number!

Aug 8, 2011 - 11:52pm

@Shill How crazy was he? Did

@Shill How crazy was he? Did he say buy now emphatically? Like when he told everyone to get out of the market if you needed your money in 5 years? I'm sure he didn't say sell anything else to buy gold. Just buy gold right?

This time it is different.

Aug 8, 2011 - 11:54pm



Tom L
Aug 8, 2011 - 11:54pm


Oh... and yes, you are witnessing history in front of your eyes. It's fascinating, frightening and oddly comforting all at the same time. I've been preparing for this moment for so long that now that it's here I'm a lot calmer than I should be given the circumstances.

$1761 Gold and Silver is trying to BO now.


Aug 8, 2011 - 11:54pm

$4 dollars away - 1760

Gold is on a mission.

Aug 8, 2011 - 11:54pm


That F crossed my mind - but standards! We must keep our standards! NOT!!

Holy F*ckin' Shit! $1,761!!!

Aug 8, 2011 - 11:56pm

17 62 silver 39.27

17 62

silver 39.27

Turdle GG
Aug 8, 2011 - 11:57pm

Santa's magnet has a powerful pull

Even silver is perking up, a little

Throwing Sliver Hammers
Aug 8, 2011 - 11:58pm

World Collapse Explained in 3 Minutes

World Collapse Explained in 3 Minutes
Aug 8, 2011 - 11:58pm


Just saw gold @ $1764 on the fox Buisness ticker!

Eric Original
Aug 8, 2011 - 11:59pm

Wow guys

Turdle GG
Aug 8, 2011 - 11:59pm

Asians love gold

Old world powers love debt. Are we seeing the world's powerbase shift before our eyes?

Captain Silver
Aug 9, 2011 - 12:00am


I can't believe this is playing out overnight and moving so quickly.... We'll see if 1764 is the trigger point, but man is the world on fire. Been expecting it for years, but never thought it would happen like this!

What you fellow Turdites think? Do we wake up to a different world tomorrow or do we have until Wednesday?!

Aug 9, 2011 - 12:01am

@Tom L

The feeling is strange but I'm not sure oddly comforting is the word for me. Sadly vindicated, with a big emphasis on the sadly part.

Aug 9, 2011 - 12:03am

Didn't think you'd see it tonight

Didn't think you'd see it tonight Doc... thought we'd be in bed when it happened. All bets are off now though!

Tom L
Aug 9, 2011 - 12:04am


Thanks for that Vid. I love those guys. I could watch that all day every day.


Dr G
Aug 9, 2011 - 12:04am

Fox ticker is always $5-6 off

Fox ticker is always $5-6 off from Kitco. Either way we are there or close!

Curious Rookie California Lawyer
Aug 9, 2011 - 12:04am


California Lawyer,

Thanks for the response back and now I understand your prediction. I agree. Several years ago a friend of mine invited me to attend his sons graduation from SEAL training in Coronado, CA. It was a great honor to be there and also get a tour of the facility. The keynote speaker was the then commander for SEAL Team 6. He had just returned from Iraq and in his speech he told the new graduates to "steel" themselves because the war in the Middle East is a religious war. The Muslims fully intend to rid the earth of all those not Muslim.

The bible tells us the end as we know it will come in the Middle East. None of this is surprising. I will read DPH's posts and also do some research on Maybury. Thank you for your concern for my family and it is wise to be prepared.

Curious Rookie

Aug 9, 2011 - 12:04am

It's one thing to let silver

It's one thing to let silver run to $48. It's quite another to let gold run to $1,760+. Orders of magnitude, etc.

Methinks it's going to be crazy when London opens.

OMG $1,763!

Turdle GG
Aug 9, 2011 - 12:05am
Aug 9, 2011 - 12:05am

Ok speaking of charts, it

Ok speaking of charts, it seems every time it is hitting a new high it gets a short term beat down. Is that what the shorter term charts are looking like? I don't know if I have access to charts like some of you guys do or that guy Brother John uses.

I haven't even checked silver in quite some time. LOL.

@Irene that is why I only used HFS! It could mean High Frequency Shitting. As in ones pants due to the ever increasing price of gold tonight.

I think I will dub this post: Charts and Sharts!


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