Because I Said So

Mon, Aug 8, 2011 - 3:34pm

Just when world markets were seeking assurance, our esteemed and supremely qualified leader uttered this:

"Markets will rise and fall, but this is the United States of America. No matter what some agency may say, we have always been and always will be a triple-A country," Obama said.

Nothing quite like living in FantasyLand. I hear it's particularly beautiful at this time of year.

How are you feeling about your gold and silver today? Let's see...Dow is down 506. The S&P is down 66. Crude's at $80. Copper and the grains have been pummeled. I know that silver is pissing you off but, considering the absolute demolition of everything that isn't gold, you should actually feel pretty good about it.

Speaking of silver, here's a 2-hour chart. When the selling of everything finally relents, silver will rally sharply. It will carry through 40.40 and it will move rapidly toward the highs of last week near $42.

However, gold is your clear, hands-down winner on the day. I have a last of $1714, up an amazing $62. There's more to come, too. First up, here's your 2-hour chart. It shows another "stair" higher.

More significantly, I've tried to recreate Trader Dan's weekly chart. Notice the clear breakout of the three-year channel. If it can hold in this area and extend gains...and it's hard to see why it wouldn't...a breakout of this magnitude is extraordinarily bullish. I can see why JPM came out with their "$2500 gold by year end" prediction today.

Three years is an awful long time so we must be careful. Gold could easily fall back into the channel and give us a "false breakout". However, the fundos are so strong at present that it may very well stay up and begin a rapidly accelerating extension higher. Watch this very closely as we may be about to be given a once-in-a-decade opportunity to make big fiat, real fast.

Lastly, I did switch a few things around today in order to take maximum advantage of what I see coming. In silver, I eliminated my Sep spreads and am now simply long the $42 calls. In gold, I dumped my October 1700 vs 1800 spreads and went long just the straight 1800 calls. I'm still long my December 1700 vs 1800 spreads, though.

Thanks to all who entered the new contest. If you haven't entered yet, you must pick the Comex closing price for this coming Friday in the September11 gold contract. Use the previous thread to post your guess. No entries submitted later than 5:00 EDT today will be accepted. Btw, if someone has a few extra minutes, would you please help The Turd by compiling all of the entries onto a spreadsheet? Thanks in advance to anyone who can help.

That's it for now. Keep the faith! TF

5:10 pm EDT UPDATE:

As the Globex closes, gold is back to $1722. I can't imagine that it won't make new highs overnight, particularly when Asia is in full swing at around midnight to 2:00 am EDT. For your comic relief, I present below something I just received from a friend. It's the opening paragraph of a "SPECIAL BULLETIN", just released by MSSB. What absolute fools these people are. They can't even spell "committee" correctly! If you are currently working with a traditionally-trained "financial advisor"....well, you know what they say about a fool and his money.

Latest Report from the Global Investment Policy Comittee: Downgrade .

GIC Special Bulletin: Impact of US Credit Downgrade on Markets

Applegate, Jeffrey – Morgan Stanley Smith Barney

August 8, 2011 6:37 PM GMT

The downgrade of US long-term debt by Standard and Poor’s, which is notable politically and historically, is having a prompt and negative short term effect on global financial markets. However, the next stop is not a recession—nor is it a drop in corporate profits. This a split decision on ratings, as the other two major ratings agencies, Moody’s and Fitch, have maintained their respective top-drawer ratings for US debt. As this latest sell-off abates, expect the markets to refocus on the fundamentals: an intact global business-cycle expansion that in our view, should deliver double-digit profit-growth into 2012. Our base case remains that a US economic rebound will occur in the second half of this year and that European policymakers will eventually be forced to take more decisive action to stabilize their debt markets and the euro.

11:25 pm EDT UPDATE:

These late nights are wiping me out. Holy cow, gold is up another $42 as I type at $1755! The S&P is down 28. Crude is down another $4. The grains and copper are getting smoked. At least silver is hanging in there at 39.12.

Two things. Watch gold overnight. Santa's number of the final frontier is 1764. For whatever reason, his numbers usually pan out and he's maintained for weeks that 1764 would be defended by The Cartel. In silver, watch this triangle play out. Silver could collapse through 38.50 and head toward 37 but I doubt it. I expect silver to instead charge through the down-sloping line overnight and begin heading higher. We'll see. Anything can happen. Have a great overnight. See you in the a.m. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Aug 9, 2011 - 12:30am
Aug 9, 2011 - 12:31am

Silver is being battered

Silver is being battered alright. But they aren't going to be able to keep that up for much longer. It's short sighted to keep silver too cheap. Asia's middle classes will see it as a bargain soon and start snapping it up. EE would be smarter to let it go up 1% while gold is doing 2%+. But you know, the EE is just so last century.

Cheers to all my fellow Turdites! It was an honor to be with you at this historic moment.

Aug 9, 2011 - 12:31am

Santa needs to update the

Santa needs to update the angel photo, and right quick!

Aug 9, 2011 - 12:31am

Maybe Obama should make

Maybe Obama should make another statement tomorrow

Aug 9, 2011 - 12:35am


███████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ 44% DONE.

Aug 9, 2011 - 12:36am

Looks like all the credit

Looks like all the credit card companies will have to start dropping the fees on their Platinum Cards since Platinum is worth less than Gold now.

Aug 9, 2011 - 12:38am

My take so far:

Well, my assessment that we will see GOLD reaching 1800 by the end of this week seems to be in play. At the rate the markets are declining, and with the fragile and broken the investors's psychic, we could very well see GOLD reach the $2000.00 mark by next week.

On Silver:

It appears that Silver is trading in a very tight range. This is because it is consolidating and finding a very strong base in the area of $38.50. There is still manipulation in the Silver market as we speak, and it is probably because those who where shorts are trying very hard to cover. Otherwise, the ratio between GOLD and Silver is going to widen, and that will make Silver look cheap.

We should see Gold around $1800 by tomorrow, and Silver should at-least approach the $40.00+ mark. I do think we could see a massive move on Silver because of the ratio and Gold going higher. The volume on Silver is very good so far in the ASIAN markets. But, you could also see that the shorts are desperate, or possibly cornered. It could also be that the ASIANs want to keep Silver in a tight range because they are accumulating and they don't care what COMEX does. But, eventually, the trading range is giving an indication of a breakout. Gold at 1800, and Silver at $39.00 will not make sense. So, i do think Silver will eventually catch-up with Gold...

As i write, they just brought the bids lower again for Silver for accumulation purposes, and perhaps, it is allowing the shorts to cover.

GOLD at 1772 as i type

Silver at i type...(perhaps some have pointed that whenever the Sydney market closes, it goes lower)

You can see, Silver is acting very Psychotic (as some have mentioned before) at this time. It is trading, but the ratio between Gold & Silver is widening as we speak. Good luck...

Aug 9, 2011 - 12:38am

The Zoo

Video unavailable
Turdle GG
Aug 9, 2011 - 12:38am

Something positive is afoot for equities

Australian market recovered from -4.5% to now be almost flat!

TheGoodDoctor aurum argentum
Aug 9, 2011 - 12:40am

@aurum argentum No doubt that

@aurum argentum No doubt that is one of my favorite episodes too! I love the Boys. Got turned on to them when they were on DirecTV. Then the bastards took them off.

Seriously, there is so much going on in the episodes you have to watch them over and over to see it all. Sadly, I don't have the box set as of yet. But boy oh boy did I get so many laughs out of this show.

I haven't seen the second movie yet. I'm saving it for a special occasion. Like when I can afford it. LOL.

Yeah it was a tragedy they took it off DirecTV. I watched them all even though I had seen them all before. Leahy was one of the funniest characters in television history. I mean everyone was. Ray. Bubbles. It's like god damned Shakespeare!

Aug 9, 2011 - 12:41am

It's time to buy my penny miners!!!...

My "pennies"...will turn into silver & gold...very sooooooon!!!...

Pennies From Heaven - Billie Holiday

Bag Of Gold

Aug 9, 2011 - 12:42am

Fear is our Greatest Enemy

Have no fear! The Parabolic is upon us. Santa's present came early this year.

Eric Original
Aug 9, 2011 - 12:43am

Something is turning.  Stocks

Something is turning. Stocks coming back, gold backing off

Aug 9, 2011 - 12:45am

Our objective is to stay

Our objective is to stay alive:

Circle of Dust (1994) - Brainchild /03-Prayers of a Dead Man
TheGoodDoctor Bobbi
Aug 9, 2011 - 12:46am

@Bobbi Agreed. But to me Gold

@Bobbi Agreed. But to me Gold = Truth. And Lord knows we haven't been told the truth lately about a lot of damned things. Here now, is evidence of the truth rearing its head.

Dr G
Aug 9, 2011 - 12:46am

Silver still getting

Silver still getting pummeled. Straight down now, gold the same (but it can probably afford to take a little hit after a night like tonight!).

Aug 9, 2011 - 12:47am


If Gold holds its highs at open tommorrow the Silver buyers should come rushing in. But Silver is vulnerable to attack by the Empire in the early hours simply because it is a small market. And gold will be thin between 4 a.m and 6a.m.

I almost expect a margin hike or two tomorrow in Gold. They must get this under control. It is a complete afront to the dweeb Bernank on what should be HIS day of bull dung and to O'bottom as well.

Tomorrow they move the goal posts, no question.

Eric Original
Aug 9, 2011 - 12:48am

That's enough for me.  Got an

That's enough for me. Got an early morning coming up. Nite all.

Aug 9, 2011 - 12:48am

For Turdite's Down Under

Nine Inch Nails performs "1,000,000" live at the Soundwave Festival in Sydney, Australia, February 22, 2009.

(starts out low volume)

Video unavailable
Aug 9, 2011 - 12:53am

Oh wandering one... Ag

Reminds me of the old Family Circus cartoon where Billy(Ag) wanders all over the place, while his Dad (Au) goes straight!

Aug 9, 2011 - 12:53am

Music to nod off face first into your keyboard

Pearl Jam Even Flow Music Video HQ
end the fed already
Aug 9, 2011 - 12:53am

looking at the market last week....

i saw the rise in gold last week and said to myself, well soon gold will exceed platinum. then i turn on the computer box this morning to see how the market was doing. at that time gold was $22 FRN away from platinum. i thought, well in a day or two.....

then i saw a rise and another and soon gold was within $2 FRN. i thought gee, this passes platinum today? sure enough, for the second time in history i watched it pass by $2 FRN ahead. when it got $22 FRN ahead, i shut off the box and headed down to buy some silver since it's still on sale by TPTB.

my, we live in interesting times! some day when the ratio of g/s gets to historic levels, it will be time to make the switch to gold. until then, i'm still long and strong silver.

"sweat not the corrections for they are as a fart is to the wind."

stingbee30 SilverWealth
Aug 9, 2011 - 12:56am

Gold and Margins

I don't think the margins are going to change for GOLD. The reason is that all the big boys of Wall Street are behind GOLD, and they are also chasing GOLD. Silver is poor man's GOLD. GOLD market usually attract those with a lot of liquid assets, and with a lot of money. But at this time, GOLD had dethroned all other investments, and the story will not change anytime soon. Silver margin hikes was probably raised (beside the notion to protect those commercial Short positions) because the perception might have been that the average investor might not have the collateral or the liquid assets if there is margin call. This is just my opinion.

Aug 9, 2011 - 12:59am

@TheGoodDoctor, yes but

having gained knowledge of "the truth" what will you do with it going forward? See, I feel a very heavy burden knowing "the truth" and hence my statement it gives me no joy being right about gold specifically and silver by it has to tag along.

I feel that by being blessed to be on the right side of the trade (for once, and believe me, it opens many new doors in the psyche to be evaluated) I am further obligated to "do something constructive" in the new normal as it were.

In speaking for myself, not sure I am up to the task. Just want to disappear from this reality until there is a need for me and my skills.

Aug 9, 2011 - 1:02am

Oh shit, it's going up again!

Oh shit, it's going up again! I swear this isn't good for my health, but fuck it I love a good rollercoaster ride! :)

Aug 9, 2011 - 1:05am

At least you can afford the meds.......

@reefman.....At least you can afford the meds.......

Aug 9, 2011 - 1:06am


I did not know about Webster Tarpley. Now I do, thanks.

Aug 9, 2011 - 1:08am

@Bobbi I'm a Pisces too so,

@Bobbi I'm a Pisces too so, it irks me when people won't take me seriously. (not you but others that I have spoken too about these things) But after awhile you just have to CYA (cover your own ass). I don't like to be right, I don't want to be right. But am I glad that I am right? For now yes because I too have covered my butt. But things can and will change.

I want the whole system repaired. But you know what that means Bobbi and it isn't pretty. I'm convinced its the only way. As I stated elsewhere on one of these threads: One day they will reel back from trying to kick the can down the road and they will have a compound fracture in their leg/foot/ankle because the can will no longer move.

Aug 9, 2011 - 1:10am

By the way, MUSE is a band

By the way, MUSE is a band that actually "get's it!".

One of their videos showed them burning the US Dollar and the banks collapsing.

Muse - Uprising [Official Video]
Prize Fighter
Aug 9, 2011 - 1:15am

Reefman, good ear.  That's

Reefman, good ear. That's actually Turd's official theme song.


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