Because I Said So

464
104
Mon, Aug 8, 2011 - 3:34pm

Just when world markets were seeking assurance, our esteemed and supremely qualified leader uttered this:

"Markets will rise and fall, but this is the United States of America. No matter what some agency may say, we have always been and always will be a triple-A country," Obama said.

Nothing quite like living in FantasyLand. I hear it's particularly beautiful at this time of year.

How are you feeling about your gold and silver today? Let's see...Dow is down 506. The S&P is down 66. Crude's at $80. Copper and the grains have been pummeled. I know that silver is pissing you off but, considering the absolute demolition of everything that isn't gold, you should actually feel pretty good about it.

Speaking of silver, here's a 2-hour chart. When the selling of everything finally relents, silver will rally sharply. It will carry through 40.40 and it will move rapidly toward the highs of last week near $42.

However, gold is your clear, hands-down winner on the day. I have a last of $1714, up an amazing $62. There's more to come, too. First up, here's your 2-hour chart. It shows another "stair" higher.

More significantly, I've tried to recreate Trader Dan's weekly chart. Notice the clear breakout of the three-year channel. If it can hold in this area and extend gains...and it's hard to see why it wouldn't...a breakout of this magnitude is extraordinarily bullish. I can see why JPM came out with their "$2500 gold by year end" prediction today.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/shocker-jpm-sees-gold-2500-year-end

Three years is an awful long time so we must be careful. Gold could easily fall back into the channel and give us a "false breakout". However, the fundos are so strong at present that it may very well stay up and begin a rapidly accelerating extension higher. Watch this very closely as we may be about to be given a once-in-a-decade opportunity to make big fiat, real fast.

Lastly, I did switch a few things around today in order to take maximum advantage of what I see coming. In silver, I eliminated my Sep spreads and am now simply long the $42 calls. In gold, I dumped my October 1700 vs 1800 spreads and went long just the straight 1800 calls. I'm still long my December 1700 vs 1800 spreads, though.

Thanks to all who entered the new contest. If you haven't entered yet, you must pick the Comex closing price for this coming Friday in the September11 gold contract. Use the previous thread to post your guess. No entries submitted later than 5:00 EDT today will be accepted. Btw, if someone has a few extra minutes, would you please help The Turd by compiling all of the entries onto a spreadsheet? Thanks in advance to anyone who can help.

That's it for now. Keep the faith! TF

5:10 pm EDT UPDATE:

As the Globex closes, gold is back to $1722. I can't imagine that it won't make new highs overnight, particularly when Asia is in full swing at around midnight to 2:00 am EDT. For your comic relief, I present below something I just received from a friend. It's the opening paragraph of a "SPECIAL BULLETIN", just released by MSSB. What absolute fools these people are. They can't even spell "committee" correctly! If you are currently working with a traditionally-trained "financial advisor"....well, you know what they say about a fool and his money.

Latest Report from the Global Investment Policy Comittee: Downgrade .

GIC Special Bulletin: Impact of US Credit Downgrade on Markets

Applegate, Jeffrey – Morgan Stanley Smith Barney

August 8, 2011 6:37 PM GMT

The downgrade of US long-term debt by Standard and Poor’s, which is notable politically and historically, is having a prompt and negative short term effect on global financial markets. However, the next stop is not a recession—nor is it a drop in corporate profits. This a split decision on ratings, as the other two major ratings agencies, Moody’s and Fitch, have maintained their respective top-drawer ratings for US debt. As this latest sell-off abates, expect the markets to refocus on the fundamentals: an intact global business-cycle expansion that in our view, should deliver double-digit profit-growth into 2012. Our base case remains that a US economic rebound will occur in the second half of this year and that European policymakers will eventually be forced to take more decisive action to stabilize their debt markets and the euro.

11:25 pm EDT UPDATE:

These late nights are wiping me out. Holy cow, gold is up another $42 as I type at $1755! The S&P is down 28. Crude is down another $4. The grains and copper are getting smoked. At least silver is hanging in there at 39.12.

Two things. Watch gold overnight. Santa's number of the final frontier is 1764. For whatever reason, his numbers usually pan out and he's maintained for weeks that 1764 would be defended by The Cartel. In silver, watch this triangle play out. Silver could collapse through 38.50 and head toward 37 but I doubt it. I expect silver to instead charge through the down-sloping line overnight and begin heading higher. We'll see. Anything can happen. Have a great overnight. See you in the a.m. TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  464 Comments

  Refresh
reefman
Aug 9, 2011 - 1:02am

Oh shit, it's going up again!

Oh shit, it's going up again! I swear this isn't good for my health, but fuck it I love a good rollercoaster ride! :)

Bobbi
Aug 9, 2011 - 12:59am

@TheGoodDoctor, yes but

having gained knowledge of "the truth" what will you do with it going forward? See, I feel a very heavy burden knowing "the truth" and hence my statement it gives me no joy being right about gold specifically and silver by it has to tag along.

I feel that by being blessed to be on the right side of the trade (for once, and believe me, it opens many new doors in the psyche to be evaluated) I am further obligated to "do something constructive" in the new normal as it were.

In speaking for myself, not sure I am up to the task. Just want to disappear from this reality until there is a need for me and my skills.

stingbee30SilverWealth
Aug 9, 2011 - 12:56am

Gold and Margins

I don't think the margins are going to change for GOLD. The reason is that all the big boys of Wall Street are behind GOLD, and they are also chasing GOLD. Silver is poor man's GOLD. GOLD market usually attract those with a lot of liquid assets, and with a lot of money. But at this time, GOLD had dethroned all other investments, and the story will not change anytime soon. Silver margin hikes was probably raised (beside the notion to protect those commercial Short positions) because the perception might have been that the average investor might not have the collateral or the liquid assets if there is margin call. This is just my opinion.

end the fed already
Aug 9, 2011 - 12:53am

looking at the market last week....

i saw the rise in gold last week and said to myself, well soon gold will exceed platinum. then i turn on the computer box this morning to see how the market was doing. at that time gold was $22 FRN away from platinum. i thought, well in a day or two.....

then i saw a rise and another and soon gold was within $2 FRN. i thought gee, this passes platinum today? sure enough, for the second time in history i watched it pass by $2 FRN ahead. when it got $22 FRN ahead, i shut off the box and headed down to buy some silver since it's still on sale by TPTB.

my, we live in interesting times! some day when the ratio of g/s gets to historic levels, it will be time to make the switch to gold. until then, i'm still long and strong silver.

"sweat not the corrections for they are as a fart is to the wind."

¤
Aug 9, 2011 - 12:53am

Music to nod off face first into your keyboard

Pearl Jam Even Flow Music Video HQ
Boswell
Aug 9, 2011 - 12:53am

Oh wandering one... Ag

Reminds me of the old Family Circus cartoon where Billy(Ag) wanders all over the place, while his Dad (Au) goes straight!

https://dfc.furr.org/archive/image.php?image=477.gif

¤
Aug 9, 2011 - 12:48am

For Turdite's Down Under

Nine Inch Nails performs "1,000,000" live at the Soundwave Festival in Sydney, Australia, February 22, 2009.

(starts out low volume)

Video unavailable
Eric Original
Aug 9, 2011 - 12:48am

That's enough for me.  Got an

That's enough for me. Got an early morning coming up. Nite all.

SilverWealth
Aug 9, 2011 - 12:47am

silver

If Gold holds its highs at open tommorrow the Silver buyers should come rushing in. But Silver is vulnerable to attack by the Empire in the early hours simply because it is a small market. And gold will be thin between 4 a.m and 6a.m.

I almost expect a margin hike or two tomorrow in Gold. They must get this under control. It is a complete afront to the dweeb Bernank on what should be HIS day of bull dung and to O'bottom as well.

Tomorrow they move the goal posts, no question.

Dr G
Aug 9, 2011 - 12:46am

Silver still getting

Silver still getting pummeled. Straight down now, gold the same (but it can probably afford to take a little hit after a night like tonight!).

Subscribe or login to read all comments.

Contribute

Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 5/18

5/18 2:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/19 8:30 ET Housing starts
5/19 10:00 ET CGP and Mnuchin US Senate
5/20 10:00 ET Goon Bullard speech
5/20 2:00 ET April FOMC minutes
5/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
5/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for May
5/21 10:00 ET Goon Williams speech
5/21 1:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
5/21 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell speech

Key Economic Events Week of 5/11

5/11 12:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/11 12:30 ET Goon Evans speech
5/12 8:30 ET CPI
5/12 9:00 ET Goon Kashnkari speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Quarles speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Harker speech
5/12 5:00 ET Goon Mester speech
5/13 8:30 ET PPI
5/13 9:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speech
5/14 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims and import prices
5/14 1:00 ET Another Goon Kashnkari speech
5/14 6:00 ET Goon Kaplan speech
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State index
5/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 5/4

5/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
5/5 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
5/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
5/5 10:00 ET ISM Sevrice PMI
5/6 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
5/7 8:30 ET Productivity
5/8 8:30 ET BLSBS
5/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 4/27

4/28 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
4/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
4/29 8:30 ET Q1 GDP first guess
4/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
4/29 2:30 ET CGP presser
4/30 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
4/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
5/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
5/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 4/20

4/20 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
4/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
4/23 8:30 ET Weekly jobless claims
4/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
4/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods

Key Economic Events Week of 4/6

4/8 2:00 ET March FOMC minutes
4/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
4/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index

Key Economic Events Week of 3/30

3/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
4/1 8:15 ET ADP Employment
4/1 9:45 ET Markit manu PMI
4/1 10:00 ET ISM manu PMI
4/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders
4/3 8:30 ET BLSBS
4/3 9:45 ET Market service PMI
4/3 10:00 ET ISM service PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 3/23

3/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
3/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
3/26 8:30 ET Weekly jobless claims
3/27 8:30 ET Personal Inc and Spending

Key Economic Events Week of 3/9

(as if these actually matter)
3/11 8:30 ET CPI
3/12 8:30 ET weekly jobless claims
3/12 8:30 ET PPI
3/13 8:30 ET Import Price Index

Key Economic Events Week of 3/2

3/2 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
3/2 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
3/2 10:00 ET Construction Spending
3/4 8:15 ET ADP employment
3/4 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
3/4 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
3/5 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
3/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
3/6 8:30 ET BLSBS
3/6 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Recent Comments

by DeaconBenjamin, 21 min 59 sec ago
by MoonShiv, 41 min 48 sec ago
by robobrewer, 1 hour 50 min ago
by Ubik Kosmil, 2 hours 15 min ago
randomness