Because I Said So

464
104
Mon, Aug 8, 2011 - 3:34pm

 Just when world markets were seeking assurance, our esteemed and supremely qualified leader uttered this:

"Markets will rise and fall, but this is the United States of America. No matter what some agency may say, we have always been and always will be a triple-A country," Obama said.

Nothing quite like living in FantasyLand. I hear it's particularly beautiful at this time of year.

How are you feeling about your gold and silver today? Let's see...Dow is down 506. The S&P is down 66. Crude's at $80. Copper and the grains have been pummeled. I know that silver is pissing you off but, considering the absolute demolition of everything that isn't gold, you should actually feel pretty good about it.

Speaking of silver, here's a 2-hour chart. When the selling of everything finally relents, silver will rally sharply. It will carry through 40.40 and it will move rapidly toward the highs of last week near $42.

paper_8-8pmsilv.jpg

However, gold is your clear, hands-down winner on the day. I have a last of $1714, up an amazing $62. There's more to come, too. First up, here's your 2-hour chart. It shows another "stair" higher.

paper_8-8pmgold.jpg

More significantly, I've tried to recreate Trader Dan's weekly chart. Notice the clear breakout of the three-year channel. If it can hold in this area and extend gains...and it's hard to see why it wouldn't...a breakout of this magnitude is extraordinarily bullish. I can see why JPM came out with their "$2500 gold by year end" prediction today.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/shocker-jpm-sees-gold-2500-year-end

Three years is an awful long time so we must be careful. Gold could easily fall back into the channel and give us a "false breakout". However, the fundos are so strong at present that it may very well stay up and begin a rapidly accelerating extension higher. Watch this very closely as we may be about to be given a once-in-a-decade opportunity to make big fiat, real fast.

paper_8-8pmgoldw.jpg

Lastly, I did switch a few things around today in order to take maximum advantage of what I see coming. In silver, I eliminated my Sep spreads and am now simply long the $42 calls. In gold, I dumped my October 1700 vs 1800 spreads and went long just the straight 1800 calls. I'm still long my December 1700 vs 1800 spreads, though.

Thanks to all who entered the new contest. If you haven't entered yet, you must pick the Comex closing price for this coming Friday in the September11 gold contract. Use the previous thread to post your guess. No entries submitted later than 5:00 EDT today will be accepted. Btw, if someone has a few extra minutes, would you please help The Turd by compiling all of the entries onto a spreadsheet? Thanks in advance to anyone who can help.

That's it for now. Keep the faith! TF

5:10 pm EDT UPDATE:

As the Globex closes, gold is back to $1722. I can't imagine that it won't make new highs overnight, particularly when Asia is in full swing at around midnight to 2:00 am EDT. For your comic relief, I present below something I just received from a friend. It's the opening paragraph of a "SPECIAL BULLETIN", just released by MSSB. What absolute fools these people are. They can't even spell "committee" correctly! If you are currently working with a traditionally-trained "financial advisor"....well, you know what they say about a fool and his money.

Morgan Stanley Smith Barney

Latest Report from the Global Investment Policy Comittee: Downgrade .

GIC Special Bulletin: Impact of US Credit Downgrade on Markets

Applegate, Jeffrey – Morgan Stanley Smith Barney

August 8, 2011 6:37 PM GMT

The downgrade of US long-term debt by Standard and Poor’s, which is notable politically and historically, is having a prompt and negative short term effect on global financial markets. However, the next stop is not a recession—nor is it a drop in corporate profits. This a split decision on ratings, as the other two major ratings agencies, Moody’s and Fitch, have maintained their respective top-drawer ratings for US debt. As this latest sell-off abates, expect the markets to refocus on the fundamentals: an intact global business-cycle expansion that in our view, should deliver double-digit profit-growth into 2012. Our base case remains that a US economic rebound will occur in the second half of this year and that European policymakers will eventually be forced to take more decisive action to stabilize their debt markets and the euro. 

11:25 pm EDT UPDATE:

These late nights are wiping me out. Holy cow, gold is up another $42 as I type at $1755! The S&P is down 28. Crude is down another $4. The grains and copper are getting smoked. At least silver is hanging in there at 39.12.

Two things. Watch gold overnight. Santa's number of the final frontier is 1764. For whatever reason, his numbers usually pan out and he's maintained for weeks that 1764 would be defended by The Cartel. In silver, watch this triangle play out. Silver could collapse through 38.50 and head toward 37 but I doubt it. I expect silver to instead charge through the down-sloping line overnight and begin heading higher. We'll see. Anything can happen. Have a great overnight. See you in the a.m. TF

paper_8-8pmgoldlate.jpgpaper_8-8pmsilvlate.jpg

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  464 Comments

Paladex · Aug 8, 2011 - 3:36pm

Singing ...

I hear singing. I can't tell if it's the fat lady or a black swan. 

silverbleve · Aug 8, 2011 - 3:38pm

?

first? I guess not. Thanks Turd.

primetimeglick · Aug 8, 2011 - 3:41pm

gold prediction

Friday closes at 1763.95. Oh so close to Santa's rocket launching pad.

Dakini · Aug 8, 2011 - 3:44pm

Friday Gold

$1759.00

(and I won't trade it in for what's behind Door #3.)

Oops - wrong thread.

Prize Fighter · Aug 8, 2011 - 3:44pm

"Thanks to all who entered

"Thanks to all who entered the new contest. If you haven't entered yet, you must pick the Comex closing price for this coming Friday in the September11 gold contract. Use the previous thread to post your guess. No entries submitted later than 5:00 EDT today will be accepted. Btw, if someone has a few extra minutes, would you please help The Turd by compiling all of the entries onto a spreadsheet? Thanks in advance to anyone who can help."

ferretflat · Aug 8, 2011 - 3:45pm

Stock market toilet flush is

Stock market toilet flush is sucking all my PM stocks down the drain!! Make it stop!

ReachWest · Aug 8, 2011 - 3:46pm

Thanks Turd - great

Thanks Turd - great insights.

On a contrary note - I see Jeff Christian (of CPM Group) on CNBS just saying that Gold is topping out and to sell - this doofus then added that there is little to no demand for Physical Gold because the premium for Physical coins vs spot is so slight. Blah, blah, blah. I hope he takes his own advise, sells gold and owns no physical. Hope nobody else is heeding his moronic advise.

Violent Rhetoric · Aug 8, 2011 - 3:46pm

BUY GOLD... unless you think

BUY GOLD... unless you think the FOMC is going to announce plans to decrease the money supply tomorrow.

Violent Rhetoric · Aug 8, 2011 - 3:48pm

Hammer time for stocks going

Hammer time for stocks going into the close...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=otCpCn0l4Wo

Shill · Aug 8, 2011 - 3:49pm

s&p

s&p 500

1,124.88 -74.50 -6.21% New low...
Violent Rhetoric · Aug 8, 2011 - 3:53pm

Gold on a roll baby. 

Gold on a roll baby. 

FFF · Aug 8, 2011 - 3:56pm

PPT must have given up on

trying to hold the futures up....another down day tomorrow or until QE3 announced!!

PaPaSpeed · Aug 8, 2011 - 4:00pm

Well, I'm still holding on to

Well, I'm still holding on to my miners, mainly silver. Even though they were not steller performers today, I haven't lost my confidence that they will soon be recognized, and catch a hell of a bid.

I read guys like Sinclair and Sprott when they say there is a severe shortage in physical silver, that inventories have been used up, and will eventually have to be replaced. Sooner or later, just like they say "rob banks because that's where the money is" they'll have to buy the silver miners because" that's where the silver is".

Hold on to your miners, and keep stacking.

GS ratio 44:1 going to 20:1?

stoneeh · Aug 8, 2011 - 4:02pm

Omfg baby. Silver OI 115,7k

Omfg baby. Silver OI 115,7k as of Friday. Almost at the abolute lows for this year. Holy shit is this thing bullish. Fuck gold, gold is good but it's fucking overbought right now. Silver is immensely underbought. Buy silver buy silver buy silver buy silver buy silver buy silver buy silver buy silver buy silver buy silver buy silver buy silver buy silver buy silver buy silver buy silver buy silver buy silver.........

- Markus

· Aug 8, 2011 - 4:05pm

Shiny, Cap'n

"I know that silver is pissing you off..."

Actually, no. Now that I finally got some gold I consider it a bit of the hedge. If the price of gold rises, but silver doesn't, I'm ahead on gold. If silver goes up and gold doesn't it drives the ratio down and I'm that much closer to a point where I can convert my silver to gold at a good price.

I worry less and less about any given day and just keep looking at a shiny future.

Peace.

Tesla · Aug 8, 2011 - 4:06pm

Rough Day For Paper Assets

Real......Paper

Tom L FFF · Aug 8, 2011 - 4:06pm

@FFF

Even the PPT can only be in so many places at once. I think they did a remarkable job in slowing down the descent of the S&P at 1154 today. It could have sliced through that and dropped 60 points in a flash if not for that.

When a market wants to go down the best you can do is slow it down. Same for a market that wants to go up. Frankly, they did as good job in keeping a lid on gold today. It could have easily run to $1740.

Ta,

Tesla · Aug 8, 2011 - 4:08pm

Silver OI

Daily Settlements for Silver Futures (PRELIMINARY)

Trade Date: 08/08/2011

Month

Open

High

Low

Last

Change

Settle

Estimated

Volume

Prior Day

Open Interest

AUG 11

39.080

40.215

38.850

-

+1.177

39.374

27

23

SEP 11

38.825

40.400

38.320

39.300

+1.169

39.380

59,472

53,559

OCT 11

39.150

40.270

38.880

-

+1.170

39.396

56

10

DEC 11

38.920

40.405

38.410

-

+1.172

39.413

11,988

31,759

JAN 12

38.935

38.935

38.935

-

+1.175

39.420

3

143

MAR 12

38.870

40.400

38.600

-

+1.176

39.430

1,014

6,085

MAY 12

39.000

40.190

39.000

-

+1.180

39.416

59

2,047

JLY 12

40.380

40.380

40.380

-

+1.179

39.407

26

1,899

SEP 12

40.155

40.155

39.290A

-

+1.179

39.381

5

304

DEC 12

38.750

40.295

38.610

-

+1.178

39.319

67

8,305

JAN 13

-

-

-

-

+1.178

39.298

-

1

MAR 13

-

-

-

-

+1.177

39.247

-

430

MAY 13

-

-

-

-

+1.176

39.197

-

35

JLY 13

-

-

-

-

+1.173

39.139

-

2,210

DEC 13

39.200

39.200

38.375

-

+1.169

39.035

2

6,838

JLY 14

-

-

-

-

+1.165

38.856

-

232

DEC 14

-

-

-

-

+1.165

38.751

-

1,181

JLY 15

-

-

-

-

+1.165

38.571

-

166

DEC 15

38.900

38.905B

38.900

-

+1.165

38.449

1

477

JLY 16

38.735

38.740B

38.000

-

+1.165

38.349

13

20

Total

72,733

115,724

Last Updated 08/08/2011 01:32 PM

Tesla · Aug 8, 2011 - 4:08pm

Gold OI

Daily Settlements for Gold Futures (PRELIMINARY)

Trade Date: 08/08/2011

Month

Open

High

Low

Last

Change

Settle

Estimated

Volume

Prior Day

Open Interest

AUG 11

1679.1

1718.5

1678.1

1697.0

+61.4

1710.2

1,363

3,787

SEP 11

1678.8

1718.9

1678.8

-

+61.3

1710.4

6,176

4,746

OCT 11

1678.7

1720.4

1678.7

1700.0

+61.4

1711.6

15,074

23,874

DEC 11

1681.7

1721.9

1681.7

-

+61.4

1713.2

235,058

373,525

FEB 12

1680.9

1723.3

1680.9

-

+61.7

1715.2

5,492

19,026

APR 12

1690.0

1724.8

1690.0

-

+62.1

1717.1

1,000

6,799

JUN 12

1690.0

1722.0

1690.0

-

+62.3

1718.9

1,188

15,208

AUG 12

1690.0

1730.2

1690.0

-

+62.3

1720.6

569

5,545

OCT 12

1696.1

1728.0

1696.1

-

+62.3

1722.6

65

4,169

DEC 12

1699.0

1729.2

1697.8

-

+62.2

1724.8

523

12,001

FEB 13

-

-

-

-

+62.2

1727.1

-

1,584

APR 13

1725.0

1725.0

1725.0

-

+62.2

1729.6

4

332

JUN 13

-

-

-

-

+62.2

1732.5

30

11,596

DEC 13

-

1710.0B

-

-

+61.7

1743.7

-

12,660

JUN 14

-

-

-

-

+61.1

1758.4

-

3,610

DEC 14

-

-

-

-

+60.9

1776.0

-

9,866

JUN 15

1781.0

1781.0

1781.0

-

+60.6

1797.9

1

4,733

DEC 15

-

-

-

-

+60.6

1823.9

-

3,208

JUN 16

-

-

-

-

+60.6

1853.0

-

6

DEC 16

-

-

-

-

+60.6

1885.2

-

892

JUN 17

-

-

-

-

+60.6

1922.5

-

30

Total

266,543

517,197

Last Updated 08/08/2011 01:32 PM

Tom L stoneeh · Aug 8, 2011 - 4:09pm

Silver

I'm still holding my HL and SVM Sept calls hoping to leave them with my ass intact. I added to my AUY positions and even covered a profitable hedge at $14 today. So, I hope you're right Marcus, but I'm now focused on the gold stocks that printed gains or open candles for the day. They are where the money rotated to during this washout. 

Ta,

brad_pitts_betterlooking_brother · Aug 8, 2011 - 4:10pm

$1648.51

hope not though. but i guess if i am right the hat would be some consolation.

Paladex · Aug 8, 2011 - 4:10pm

Surprised?

Talked to a couple of "normal" people today, and I was surprised to find that they were shocked and horrified at the stock market action. I realized that, although I completely expected this to happen because I've been hanging out in Turd-land for months, MOST PEOPLE STILL HAVE NO EFFING CLUE WHAT'S HAPPENING! 

Thanks, Turd, for spreading the word. I strongly suspect that this is the beginning of the end. I only wish I'd had more money to put into PMs before it started.

Buckle up, bitches, it's gonna be a bumpy ride from here on out. 

CHOWT · Aug 8, 2011 - 4:11pm

GLD...

So what's the consensus on GLD nowadays? You guys reckon it's a scam and will come crashing down? I think that if Gold goes north of maybe $2k an ounce people will really start wondering if GLD has any gold. I bought sixty Jan 2012 60 GLD puts today at 0.01 each. Is that a total waste of money? I figure if there's a 1/10% chance that GLD is $10 in January, I will have an expected return of $100 for my $70 investment. And I think there's at least a 1/10% chance that GLD will come unraveled...

iCubed · Aug 8, 2011 - 4:12pm

Monday's Market

Video unavailable
beardeus · Aug 8, 2011 - 4:14pm

"I know that silver is

"I know that silver is pissing you off but"

Haha! Took the words right out of my cranium.

duckwomanloulou iCubed · Aug 8, 2011 - 4:19pm

Gold vs platinum in £'s

Wow it is now more expensive to buy an oz of gold than an oz of platinum in £'s - how surreal is that (she says wearing a platinum ring as she thought that this was more valuable and rare than gold) Got me there ......

Lou

PS https://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/2ad9b184-c1db-11e0-bc71-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1UTDM1zuW

yankee1steve Paladex · Aug 8, 2011 - 4:20pm
needadeel · Aug 8, 2011 - 4:21pm

Feeling great, but...

Couldn't be happier to be in physical, but I'm a little bummed about about the miners. Also, I am a bit concerned that the central banks could get the idea to start dumping some of that accumulated gold.

Did anyone catch this zero hedge article today about the potential Paulson/BOA scandal: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/bank-america-just-start-paulsons-problems...

Aside from those few variables, I'm a very happy man and although I considered making some profits today, I decided to continue my long positions.

yankee1steve · Aug 8, 2011 - 4:23pm

I watch with amazement

With gold up that high and the Gold stock like ABX and GG brought down by the banksters to below its all time high. Now, with gold shooting thru' the roof and those stock moved just a little. It is pathetic and that is why guys or gals, physical is the way to go. I hold my paper mining stock until I make my money and then go physical. F... the banksters. Let them play their game.

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