Levels To Watch Today

Mon, Aug 8, 2011 - 10:19am

After a very interesting and exciting overnight, the metals are pulling back a bit this morning. This will present some opportunity if we interpret things correctly and are prepared.

As mentioned last evening, The POSX and the long bond are both up today on the bad news of the U.S. downgrade. That makes a lot of sense, doesn't it? However, as of this morning, the U.S. dollar is still the world's reserve currency and, consequently, it still receives the "flight to safety" bid. It's all short term nonsense and we're not too concerned with the short term around here. Today's short term trade in gold and silver are also of little consequence. Well, I shouldn't say that. They are of major consequence if you're looking to buy and add to positions today. In the long term, though, where gold is trading this instant has zero impact on where it will be one month from now or six months from now.

Let's start with silver. DO NOT FORGET THIS: Margins in silver are now quite high relative to gold and open interest is still down 20% from late April. This implies two things:

1) Buying tends to dry up after thrusts higher. We've seen this over and over again for the past three weeks. This lack of follow-through allows the monkeys to come in and easily beat it back.

2) The current silver longs are what we consider "strong hands" that aren't easily frightened and most have a cost basis back in the mid-30s.

Taken together, you get a silver market that is consistently moving two steps forward and one step back. Actually, it's more like three steps forward and 2 steps back! Expect this to continue into the near future. For today, silver is over $1 off its highs and has pulled all the way back to 39.10 as I type. The chart I'm posting below is already obsolete but I'll post it anyway.

Gold is where I'm most interested these days and, boy oh boy, are these charts interesting. First up, let's revisit the weekly chart that Trader Dan gave us a few days ago. Note that gold is now clearly above the top trendline, which looks to be somewhere between 1680 and 1685.

1685. Keep that number in mind. OK, now look at a 15-minute chart. 1695 looks to be your initial support but there's 1685, waiting to contain the downside for us.

Now look at an hourly chart. Remember how gold first touched that top channel line on the weekly chart back on Thursday? Do you also remember the old adage about "what was resistance is now support"? Well, you can see it quite clearly here:

And for good measure, here's an 8-hour chart which takes us back to the beginning of this move last month. Let's watch the upper boundary line very closely as it already has served to contain last night's rally.

I see that things have perked up nicely since I last checked 15 minutes ago. Gold is back to 1703 and silver is back to 39.47. I haven't made any trades yet today and I don't plan to. I am, however, watching that Sep silver spread of mine very closely.

Have a fun day. More later. TF

P.S. Time for another contest. Please post your guess for the Comex closing price of the September gold contract for this coming Friday, the 12th. The winner gets a hat!!

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Vernon Wormer
Aug 8, 2011 - 11:15am

Gold guess

$1708.28. I look great in yellow.

Aug 8, 2011 - 11:15am
Aug 8, 2011 - 11:15am
Aug 8, 2011 - 11:16am



Aug 8, 2011 - 11:16am


Count me in at $1769.90!!!...

Bag Of Gold

Aug 8, 2011 - 11:17am

$1,717 - Contest Entry

I figure that there will be ups and downs until Friday. $1,717 is a one percent move, which leaves room to run up from today and allow profit taking or short covering and dip buying. Good luck out there!

Aug 8, 2011 - 11:18am
Aug 8, 2011 - 11:19am

Hey TF, Can I wait to see if

Hey TF, Can I wait to see if QEIII is announced this week before I give you my guess? :D

Ok. Well.. ..cheating aside ....... ...uh.. .....um.. ok.....I'll hedge toward no QE this week because maybe they want us to stew in it a while longer and let the markets drip drip drip a bit lower on their own before they swoop in to save us all.

Gold: $1650.01

Aug 8, 2011 - 11:19am

Turd's contest

Thank you Turd for all you do! Cheers from Latvia! My guess for friday is 1689.5

Aug 8, 2011 - 11:20am



Aug 8, 2011 - 11:20am

My guess


Aug 8, 2011 - 11:20am

Eric, no problem,

just be sure the O Posse is packin' hand cannons. Is WI a CCW state?

Dr G
Aug 8, 2011 - 11:20am

Silver is making me dizzy

Silver is making me dizzy this morning. Gonna be a rough week for it. I should prescribe myself an antiemetic.

Aug 8, 2011 - 11:21am

My guess!

$1950 for gold and $53 for silver...and I'm no optimist... this thing just might break by then...

Aug 8, 2011 - 11:22am

Friday Gold 1771.30

Friday Gold 1771.30

Hey gang. Long time lurker.

Aug 8, 2011 - 11:22am

Golden balls contest

What do I know?! $1763.6 - selected by random number generator which is what the EE should be using. It would save them a bundle on analysts and would have as much (or better even!) chance of being right...

Avocado Lover
Aug 8, 2011 - 11:22am
Aug 8, 2011 - 11:22am

Gold Guess $1825

$1825. I might be too low :)

Aug 8, 2011 - 11:23am

Larry, Keep the faith. You

Larry, Keep the faith. You sound tired (understandably). ....Your posts are an incredible source of not only inspiration.. but truth. Thank you for being here.

Aug 8, 2011 - 11:23am


If I had to guess it will be 1672.00 Just see a margin hike if we keep moving like this.

Aug 8, 2011 - 11:24am


That is my guess = $1,722

Aug 8, 2011 - 11:25am
Animal Sacrifice
Aug 8, 2011 - 11:25am

My Gold Guess


Aug 8, 2011 - 11:25am

Anyone notice the $2 gap between SLV and silver spot today?

Normally the gap is around a buck. In the last half hour, it widened to $2 and is starting to close again. Instead of tracking the spot price, seems like SLV is being pummeled to bring the spot price down. It doesn't seem to be working, and it looks like the gap is closing again to around $1

Adam Smith
Aug 8, 2011 - 11:26am

Thoughts on Loss of Control

I have been thinking about this at some length and would appreciate others' thoughts and comments. At what point does the EE/TPTB "lose control" of the PMs? (i.e., lose the ability to manipulate the markets at will). Will this ever occur? IMO it will and I suspect that we are nearing this point. Will it be Santa's Au $1764?

Obviously the implications of this are huge. For those of us who believe that the PM markets have been manipulated, it follows that there is a major event that will take place when and if the loss of control occurs.

Our fellow Turdites are well versed in the buy physical and take possession mantra that will sustain us through this course. Is it possible to trade this event? Is it possible to estimate its time of arrival to any degree? I am very interested to hear the thoughts and opinions of the sound minds on board (and the unsound minds as well).

Aug 8, 2011 - 11:27am

Hi BagOfGold

Can you let us know if you and Mr. Gneiss have your forum up and running yet? Sorry if I missed an earlier announcement but I'm looking forward to following it and contributing when I can add something of value. Thanks and good luck.


Aug 8, 2011 - 11:27am


I'll go with $1720.24. no rhyme or reason.

Aug 8, 2011 - 11:27am

yip, great spectator sport

yip, great spectator sport today. the only thing more fun than watching gold go up is watching JPM go down - currently $35.7.

silver isn't quite sure what to make of the news yet.

Aug 8, 2011 - 11:27am


I've been watching it for awhile and relative to the sell off of last week and todays sell off it appears it has bottomed. (jmho)

Just called my dad and had him sell this other PM fund he had (it did well) and convert it to GDXJ about a hour ago with his totally AGA broker.

I also had him sell off something else he had going on in Scottrade and convert that into some more GDX that I already talked him into 6 months ago. He holds a few miners individually he picked out also.

IMO the mining shares in GDX and GDXJ have sold off as much as they are going to or pretty close to it (barring a complete global market meltdown to unprecedented levels of course). I can't help but think after reading bits and pieces here and there about JPM and GS starting to publicly extol the value of gold and the investment qualities that the tide is about to turn in the mining shares.

I'm convinced the big banks are going to try and do a slow 180 on the PM's bashing and start to go the other way. I think they probably have positioned themselves nicely by this point and now it's time for them to go with the flow a bit and profit and then defend another level.

GDXJ looks like a steal and possibly as close to basement price for the miners your picking up in that fund. jmho

Aug 8, 2011 - 11:27am



The EE Will try to beat it down under 1700

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