Re: Tonight. I Have No Idea.

Sun, Aug 7, 2011 - 1:26pm

It's Sunday in the U.S., a little after 1:00 EDT. The Globex opens in about five hours. There seem to be quite a few people who are interested in my opinion regarding how the metals will trade tonight and tomorrow. Frankly, I have no idea.

First of all, I've been on the record saying that I didn't think a ratings downgrade was coming. Oops. Shows you what I know. I am still stunned that it happened. Of course it needed to happen and AA+ is still too generous. A or A- would seem to be more fitting. However, since there is no principal risk in U.S. government debt (the Fed can print all the money they need to pay off bondholders), AA+ is OK, I guess. Now on the other hand, if S&P started taking inflation risk into consideration and began to factor in that you're really only getting 50c on the dollar back in principal purchasing power...well, lets just say that U.S. debt would be relegated to junk status. Regardless, U.S. debt is now rated AA+ and the effects of this will be far-reaching. We'll go into this in greater detail later this week when I have more time and can think more clearly. (For now, I'm a little hung over and I need a nap.)

As it pertains to the PMs...There is NO WAY that this news is not bullish. Extremely bullish. In the intermediate and long term. What you don't know about is tonight and tomorrow. As we saw last week, when everything else is being sold, the PM "baby" often gets thrown out with the bathwater. Gold should open UP at least $50. It should trade UP $100 tomorrow. Will it? Again, who knows? Gold may open higher and then get instantly battered lower in a global rush for liquidity.

Just watch. U.S. debt gets downgraded but the POSX and the long bond will both probably trade higher in a flight to safety. Oh well, it doesn't really matter. Like I said, gold may be down tomorrow. Who knows? But what I do know is this: Gold will be higher a month from now. It will be higher six months from now and it will be higher still a year from now. In that context, what happens tonight is of no consequence.

I'll try to have an update this evening, after things have been trading for a while. Until then sit back, relax and enjoy the fireworks. TF

11:55 pm EDT UPDATE:

Too tired to type but I wanted to give you this update with these levels to watch overnight and into Monday.

Turd nite nite now.

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Aug 8, 2011 - 9:23am

Silvers always a tasty short

I can always count on a nice short in silver, just proves the point. . . .

Tom L
Aug 8, 2011 - 9:20am

The Pivot was @ 3:00AM

Pigitha bounced hard off of 74 at 3am with the Euro and the Pound both getting knocked in the teeth. That's triggered this turn around in gold and silver with the leaning on them getting hot and heavy once Hong Kong closed and only London was open.

It looks like the USD rally is stalled at 75.10, and a break of the UT line the 10 minute chart might be the key to kick gold and silver back above 1700. But, it's going to get ugly in the next hour or so.


Aug 8, 2011 - 9:20am

Re: Greenspan

That was ridiculous :). Well, there you go gold and silver.

- Markus

Aug 8, 2011 - 9:11am


Not into sports ewc58 it bores me. Sitting in front of a TV for 3/4/5 hours at a time is not something I am into. I would rather watch paint dry.

My hobbies are of course Markets, definitely my Harley's, my cars, and just chilling with my girls and going to the range. I am a simple type pretty laid back really.

And soon to be grand dad..( Easy men I am only 44 ) :) a grand son, and I am thrilled beyond words. As someone who comes from a very large family of 7 sisters and just myself then I had 2 daughters nothing but woman in my life ( which is great ) but oh the drama. This is why I left the house at 17 LOL!

Tom L
Aug 8, 2011 - 9:06am

Turd's call on $39.50 Silver

I'm still not comfortable with anything below $40 on Silver for today. A sharp decline on the Dow and S&P will likely take silver with it at $39.50. Most of the miners I track are pointing to a gap up on the open, but that will fade quickly if there's a big sell-off in the broad market.

25 minutes to the open and things are sitting exactly where you'd expect them to be... $39.50 silver and $1700 gold.


Aug 8, 2011 - 8:57am

Shill, are you a Patriots, Giants, or Jets Fan

or like many wise folks, don't give a rip about football. I'm a NY Jets fan. Too long suffering to get into here, and hey, it's only the stupid NFL. In the real world, I own gold :-)

Longest tenured-Jet DE Shawn Ellis just became an ex-Jet, the Pats picked him up this weekend. Good move for the Pats, bad job by the Jets and the player. How's that for a topic change bro?

Colonel Angus
Aug 8, 2011 - 8:55am

Here comes the raid again...

...I need to figure out how to post that old Annie Lennox song. Raid, rain...close enough.

But they do it every morning at this time. Here's your chance to BTFD.

Aug 8, 2011 - 8:50am

And here it comes

EXK, GDX all pointing down, you wanted direction well there it is.

Stepping away for a while been a long night.

Be well

Aug 8, 2011 - 8:45am

What's a little volatility

What's a little volatility between friends? /joke

Aug 8, 2011 - 8:42am

damn dOOd. what do you do for

damn dOOd. what do you do for kicks?

Survivalwstyle, if the break out was going to happen it would have happend during the overnight session. Sorry I do not see a +$3 session in todays action, if it happens I will buy you a yellow hat.

As far as for kicks, well just about anything I want to really, lately though just hunkering down for a long winter coming here in the NE. I will end this topic of Gold vs Silver conversation as I can see with the recent replies where its headed, too early for this one is better than that one meme, as that was not my point, but it certainly is drifting that way.

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