Re: Tonight. I Have No Idea.

Sun, Aug 7, 2011 - 1:26pm

It's Sunday in the U.S., a little after 1:00 EDT. The Globex opens in about five hours. There seem to be quite a few people who are interested in my opinion regarding how the metals will trade tonight and tomorrow. Frankly, I have no idea.

First of all, I've been on the record saying that I didn't think a ratings downgrade was coming. Oops. Shows you what I know. I am still stunned that it happened. Of course it needed to happen and AA+ is still too generous. A or A- would seem to be more fitting. However, since there is no principal risk in U.S. government debt (the Fed can print all the money they need to pay off bondholders), AA+ is OK, I guess. Now on the other hand, if S&P started taking inflation risk into consideration and began to factor in that you're really only getting 50c on the dollar back in principal purchasing power...well, lets just say that U.S. debt would be relegated to junk status. Regardless, U.S. debt is now rated AA+ and the effects of this will be far-reaching. We'll go into this in greater detail later this week when I have more time and can think more clearly. (For now, I'm a little hung over and I need a nap.)

As it pertains to the PMs...There is NO WAY that this news is not bullish. Extremely bullish. In the intermediate and long term. What you don't know about is tonight and tomorrow. As we saw last week, when everything else is being sold, the PM "baby" often gets thrown out with the bathwater. Gold should open UP at least $50. It should trade UP $100 tomorrow. Will it? Again, who knows? Gold may open higher and then get instantly battered lower in a global rush for liquidity.

Just watch. U.S. debt gets downgraded but the POSX and the long bond will both probably trade higher in a flight to safety. Oh well, it doesn't really matter. Like I said, gold may be down tomorrow. Who knows? But what I do know is this: Gold will be higher a month from now. It will be higher six months from now and it will be higher still a year from now. In that context, what happens tonight is of no consequence.

I'll try to have an update this evening, after things have been trading for a while. Until then sit back, relax and enjoy the fireworks. TF

11:55 pm EDT UPDATE:

Too tired to type but I wanted to give you this update with these levels to watch overnight and into Monday.

Turd nite nite now.

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Aug 7, 2011 - 2:34pm
Prize Fighter
Aug 7, 2011 - 2:35pm

Greenspan on MSNBC Meet the

Greenspan on MSNBC Meet the Press now.

"The US can pay any debt we have because we can just print more money." - Alan Greenspan


Uh, what if your money is debt?

Yooper Rick
Aug 7, 2011 - 2:41pm

Waiting for Asia open is high

Waiting for Asia open is high tension. I'm sitting on the edge of my seat like when the monster is about to make his entrance in a horror movie.

Aug 7, 2011 - 2:44pm
Aug 7, 2011 - 2:47pm

Pretty exciting times...

...for a lot of bad reasons. We all did what we thought was best and we'll have to wait and see how the market reacts. Hopefully we profit from our wise investments and are way ahead of the curve.

Hopefully the PM's go up steadily but not too fast. I think were past the point of no return to lower prices for awhile unless we get a violent market sell off on a temporary basis and a quick recovery from the BTFD. Just this week JPM came out and spoke of how gold was a great thing to invest in blah blah blah. I don't know what to think about that.

This could all turnaround very quickly if the EE was so hemmed in like we thought. What if actually needed to go bullish or long and ease up on the short side. If that happens in even the slightest amount then ...whoooosh!... blast off!

We definitely have been living and watching the surreal political world and seeing things we almost can't believe. What if the EE just lightens up on their control a bit because they have to and things go pro- PM's from the investment bank side of it?

The turnaround in market sentiment could happen sooner and it will have to happen at some point if we get past the awareness phase to the manic phase like we all think it will someday.

Maybe it's sooner then later and the turning point for them to go pro-gold was the first US credit downgrade. The EE is in charge f this. They'll make a decision at some point to extoll the virtue's of gold for their profit and benefit when some event happens. Maybe it was the S&P downgrade?

PaladexSo It Goes
Aug 7, 2011 - 2:49pm

Re: $ as reserve currency

To Martin Armstrong's point about the reserve currency status of the dollar providing some marginal safety ... Somewhat under the radar, the IMF has begun making noise about creating a new "SDR" reserve currency, which will basically be a token that can be cashed in for any country's money.

This is actually a BIG deal, because currently anyone with billions of dollars to stash buys US Treasury bonds (as Martin Armstrong says, "You can't put that kind of money in a bank.") If they suddenly have a less-volatile alternative, Uncle Sam is going to have a hard time peddling his wares.

Interestingly, the New World Order conspiracy folks have been predicting a global currency for a while, as a first step to global government. How long before the non-negotiable SDR tokens become the ONLY negotiable currency?

(originally posted in the forum )

Aug 7, 2011 - 2:51pm

My take on Silver Prices

Tomorrow, who knows. It's anybody's guess what direction silver price will go. In the real short run I'd hazard a guess that silver trend's higher, but with extreme swings due to extreme uncertainty and nervousness out there. That means as silver investors you've got awhile here that will be totally manic & depressive, wild, and crazy. Be ready for a ride! Don't overanalize, panic, or try to make sense of it all, because it ain't all gonna make sense.

I figure with most everyone forecasting some QE activity at some point, (even though the amount of QE and it's timing is unknown), plus the fact that Obama wants re-elected meaning he has to push to keep this economy afloat, we're going to have to expect a good dose of stimulus coming in. That's inflationary for silver prices. Take that into consideration along with the ever tightening supply situation, and strong long term good fundamentals re: supply vs. demand for silver, then I'd tell myself it's looking like silver holds as a lot better looking option than all our other options long term.

I'm not a trader, because if I was I'd probably end up broke and never get any sleep in this volatile silver market. I don't really worry about what the price of silver does in the morning. I'm a 'buy and hold' guy trying to pick up a little physical anytime I see a big drop. Seeing a top is hard, but anyone can see a big drop when it happens. That's when you go to your powder and call in more physical. Same goes for the miners.. they look sooo damn cheap right now. If you believe silver prices are moving up over the long haul as I do, and it's got to be produced from somewhere, then the miners are the steady cash cows. But true, you still have to figure in some risks like nationalization movements spoiling the party, higher future production taxes, bad management decisions, etc.. But on the plus side when it's obvious silver prices are going much higher, you could have a lot of consolidation among the miners. Many will get bought up, so there's plenty forces to do well. The recent sell off in miners was a panic sell and it was the speculators who didn't know the market as many here do. Sticking with T-bills, bonds, and cash longterm that's loosing purchasing power,,, for safety? Maybe to take a breather and decide where to go next with your money (hmmm.. mybe I see what's going on and I should put it in PM's?). I'm a physical and pure play silver miner guy, but man .. my Broker absolutely hates it when he's calling me and telling me to diversify into 30% bonds, 20% cash and the rest in beaten down S&P equities. Whatever. Time will tell.. hopefully I'm right, but I ain't selling.

Aug 7, 2011 - 2:51pm

In VXX since the big Thursday

In VXX since the big Thursday boost. Either way - i'm pretty sure volatility will be the play next few days.

BTW - i think the blank checks from the FED will be handed out to the dealer banks to keep it all well painted in the green.

Aug 7, 2011 - 2:52pm


Now you know why I was in such a hurry to build this new site. I had to get it online before everyone else comes to the same conclusion!

Aug 7, 2011 - 2:52pm

Silver Looks Interesting

Silver looks really interesting from a technical perspective when using a bit longer term chart. As long as ~$34 holds things look good...

Subscribe or login to read all comments.


Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

Recent Comments

Forum Discussion

by sierra skier, 5 hours 50 min ago
by NW VIEW, 6 hours 2 min ago
by sierra skier, 7 hours 43 min ago
by Trail Trekker, 9 hours 7 min ago