Re: Tonight. I Have No Idea.

492
122
Sun, Aug 7, 2011 - 1:26pm

It's Sunday in the U.S., a little after 1:00 EDT. The Globex opens in about five hours. There seem to be quite a few people who are interested in my opinion regarding how the metals will trade tonight and tomorrow. Frankly, I have no idea.

First of all, I've been on the record saying that I didn't think a ratings downgrade was coming. Oops. Shows you what I know. I am still stunned that it happened. Of course it needed to happen and AA+ is still too generous. A or A- would seem to be more fitting. However, since there is no principal risk in U.S. government debt (the Fed can print all the money they need to pay off bondholders), AA+ is OK, I guess. Now on the other hand, if S&P started taking inflation risk into consideration and began to factor in that you're really only getting 50c on the dollar back in principal purchasing power...well, lets just say that U.S. debt would be relegated to junk status. Regardless, U.S. debt is now rated AA+ and the effects of this will be far-reaching. We'll go into this in greater detail later this week when I have more time and can think more clearly. (For now, I'm a little hung over and I need a nap.)

As it pertains to the PMs...There is NO WAY that this news is not bullish. Extremely bullish. In the intermediate and long term. What you don't know about is tonight and tomorrow. As we saw last week, when everything else is being sold, the PM "baby" often gets thrown out with the bathwater. Gold should open UP at least $50. It should trade UP $100 tomorrow. Will it? Again, who knows? Gold may open higher and then get instantly battered lower in a global rush for liquidity.

Just watch. U.S. debt gets downgraded but the POSX and the long bond will both probably trade higher in a flight to safety. Oh well, it doesn't really matter. Like I said, gold may be down tomorrow. Who knows? But what I do know is this: Gold will be higher a month from now. It will be higher six months from now and it will be higher still a year from now. In that context, what happens tonight is of no consequence.

I'll try to have an update this evening, after things have been trading for a while. Until then sit back, relax and enjoy the fireworks. TF

11:55 pm EDT UPDATE:

Too tired to type but I wanted to give you this update with these levels to watch overnight and into Monday.

Turd nite nite now.

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  492 Comments

  Refresh
Tom L
Aug 8, 2011 - 9:57am

QE3 Announcement

Will be tomorrow. Of that I have little doubt at this point. The key question will be whether 1177 area holds on the S&P. 1172 as I type this. If the PPT doesn't come in to support the price between here and the 50wk MA at 1155 then there's going to be a big drop coming that they can't stop. And the whole thing will unravel by labor day.

Ta,

Monedas
Aug 8, 2011 - 9:57am

Buy them thar dips !

Trader's fright....hoarder's delight ! Get your pick ups ready for the big.......uh, er pick up ! See you at the Comex warehouse ! Take a number and wait in line........motor off to fight global warming ! Hoarders have more fun ! Monedas 2011 Comedy Jihad Norwegian Cruise

Strongsidejediswefred
Aug 8, 2011 - 9:53am

silver and gold price

Fred, The silver trading volume was thin around six hours ago when London opened. The gold volume was massive. You're right about that volume indicating that they're trading far more gold than inventory.

The US side can not have gold running up 4%. It brings into question the survival of the banks. At this point, I am really beginning to wonder which bank has more gold. If memory serves, the biggest privately held gold vault is JPM Chase's. I seem to recall a story that seized Japanese and German gold from WW2 was being held in the JPM vault in NYC. But, this could be apocryphal.

The whole story about the banks is that Bank of America is getting cut to pieces. My guess is that BoA is being taken down and will not survive this. It's sharks feasting on a dying shark.

Strongsidejedi
Aug 8, 2011 - 9:50am

Bloomberg Bill Fleckenstein interview

Bill Fleckenstein was just on Bloomberg.

The reporter guy kept trying to get Fleck to crystal ball the bond market in the EU and USA.

Fleck didn't fall for the question and didn't go there. At the very end he said the most important thing

"most of my energy has been focused on gold because it's the obvious beneficiary of all these policies"

swefred
Aug 8, 2011 - 9:48am

I thought gold would hit

I thought gold would hit 1725+ when US markets opened. In Europe all the gold is sold out.

Tom L
Aug 8, 2011 - 9:47am

So, Gold, Silver, Stocks and

So, Gold, Silver, Stocks and oil are under pressure (or in the case of oil, full retreat) and bonds are flat/positive with the USD topping short-term.

That should tell you all you need to know. Most traders are still caught in the Matrix, regardless of what S&P says.

If the 10 and 30 year yields are down today that's confirmation that silver is going nowhere for the time being.

Ta,

ewc58
Aug 8, 2011 - 9:44am

PoG

It may be a local issue, Etrade is working normally for me at least

Piece of Gold - Peace of Mind
Aug 8, 2011 - 9:38am

E*Trade might as well be down

E*Trade might as well be down now.....can't access my account info.

ewc58
Aug 8, 2011 - 9:36am

Gotcha Shill

Go with Grandkids and Gold. Congrats to you on your imminent status, very nice to hear.

Would love to shoot our 7.62 x 39's together someday. Hopefully at a range.

Silver2500
Aug 8, 2011 - 9:33am

  Boys And Girls: It's Rule

Boys And Girls: It's Rule 48 Time

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/08/2011 09:14 -0400





Ahhhhh, just like the good ole times.

Ref: Rule 48

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/boys-and-girls-its-rule-48-time#comments

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