Re: Tonight. I Have No Idea.

Sun, Aug 7, 2011 - 1:26pm

It's Sunday in the U.S., a little after 1:00 EDT. The Globex opens in about five hours. There seem to be quite a few people who are interested in my opinion regarding how the metals will trade tonight and tomorrow. Frankly, I have no idea.

First of all, I've been on the record saying that I didn't think a ratings downgrade was coming. Oops. Shows you what I know. I am still stunned that it happened. Of course it needed to happen and AA+ is still too generous. A or A- would seem to be more fitting. However, since there is no principal risk in U.S. government debt (the Fed can print all the money they need to pay off bondholders), AA+ is OK, I guess. Now on the other hand, if S&P started taking inflation risk into consideration and began to factor in that you're really only getting 50c on the dollar back in principal purchasing power...well, lets just say that U.S. debt would be relegated to junk status. Regardless, U.S. debt is now rated AA+ and the effects of this will be far-reaching. We'll go into this in greater detail later this week when I have more time and can think more clearly. (For now, I'm a little hung over and I need a nap.)

As it pertains to the PMs...There is NO WAY that this news is not bullish. Extremely bullish. In the intermediate and long term. What you don't know about is tonight and tomorrow. As we saw last week, when everything else is being sold, the PM "baby" often gets thrown out with the bathwater. Gold should open UP at least $50. It should trade UP $100 tomorrow. Will it? Again, who knows? Gold may open higher and then get instantly battered lower in a global rush for liquidity.

Just watch. U.S. debt gets downgraded but the POSX and the long bond will both probably trade higher in a flight to safety. Oh well, it doesn't really matter. Like I said, gold may be down tomorrow. Who knows? But what I do know is this: Gold will be higher a month from now. It will be higher six months from now and it will be higher still a year from now. In that context, what happens tonight is of no consequence.

I'll try to have an update this evening, after things have been trading for a while. Until then sit back, relax and enjoy the fireworks. TF

11:55 pm EDT UPDATE:

Too tired to type but I wanted to give you this update with these levels to watch overnight and into Monday.

Turd nite nite now.

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Aug 7, 2011 - 10:38pm

In these environments, you need to throw away the technicals

I wanted to bring this thread back to the last page. So far, it appears that my assessment is coming to fruition. As i write, i wouldn't be surprised to see Silver closing around $40.50 before the European Markets opening. During the European market session, We could see Silver trading as high as $41.25-$41.50 before the US market opens. This is going to hurt a lot of shorts from last week. My initial assessment of a close around $42.00-$42.50 is in the cards for tomorrow. Gold should close around $1725-1750.

As for Tuesday, we could see Silver reaching towards the $44.00-$45.00 mark. Regardless, by the end of this week, Silver and Gold could see a close around $50.00 and $1800 respectively.

Today, it is all about fundamentals and what is happening around you. You have global reckoning happening on both sides of the Atlantic. You have the continued Arab spring which adds more stress and anxiety to the the world investor. You have protest in Israel, and riots in the UK. This Arab spring is the start of new movement to fight inflation, unemployment, bad leadership, greed, and injustice. This is going to reach other shores, it is just a matter of time...

Smart money is telling you that smart investors are slowly losing interest in the global currency market. You might have a few countries like Canada, Singapore, Australia who have better balance sheet, but there is not much liquidity. For smart investors, Gold is becoming an alternative means to protect their falling assets and currency debasement. In the US, we don't have the visionary leadership who will go behind their close-minded ideology, and start focusing what is good for America, not the lobbyist and special interest groups. We are hijacked by oil companies, banks, wallstreet firms, the strongest lobbyist from Israel, two wars without a sound resolution, and war-mongering lobbyist who still wants to keep the defense spending. We have to cut ties from our inflated egos and superficial claims to military dominance. We have to start thinking about America first, and then military spending. We need to cut defense spending by 40-50% just to survive. We have 50 million Americans on Food stamp, and about 25% or so underemployed/unemployed/discouraged workers. We have to understand the reality. We are not a super power like we are believed to think. It is just on paper. We have expensive military toys, but not enough money to help states continue battle unemployment benefits and other social causes. We were brains washed to think that Socialism is evil, and Capitalism is good. Well, today we are seeing what happens when we allow Capitalism at the expense of Social Democracy. Capitalism is only working for the few and at the expense of the masses. (btw, I'm not a proponent of Communism because it never works, sounds good on paper, but once again you give too much power to the government). We have to focus on a path to social democracy. It shouldn't be all about interest rates and how much i can leverage my investments. The Futures market in Oil is clear indication of greed and leveraging, and it is not about real delivery.

Back to Gold and Silver Story: Today, stop looking at the charts (yes, it gives us numerical benchmarks to follow). Today, it is all about what is happening around the world. It is not just the US, but Europe, the Middle East, two wars. I think you get the picture. There is a lot of anxiety and stress in the world. The classic safe-havens of US Treasury and dollar is becoming a thing of the past. Silver and Gold always had real value based on our history. It is a real hard assets. So, on Monday, we could easily see Gold passing the $1700 mark, and killing all the shorts with the buy-stops. Silver is going to follow it's big brother lead because Silver was used as a currency a while back. It really doesn't matter whether the dollar goes up or not. The reality is that it is for traders to make a few bucks. But, Silver and Gold will de-link or de-couple from what Oil is doing or Dollar. The reality is that smart investors are not going to pile-up on more dollars because the currency is worthless because it is not backed by anything. The idea of "Full Faith and Credit worthy" of the US has been challenged, and it is going to get worse. The idea that America was the savior of the financial market or the place of last resort has come to a climatic phase. There is always hope that as humans we will eventually learn from our mistakes and wake-up. We are in dire need of visionary leadership who don't prescribe to ideologies that seem outdated. The two party system is not working. It was working back then because people still believed in compromise and crossed their ideological base for the common good.

The Euro/European Union sounded good on paper, just like communism. But in reality, it is a dysfunctional organization with so many different countries and ideologies. Germany the most stable country in Europe is supposed to save all the other countries. France (taking the lead) is another joke. In summary, the World problems are far much bigger than our daily charts and daily resistance or weekly levels. The Macro economic fundamentals are far more important. So, do me a favor, stop looking too much at the charts. You will be handsomely rewarded in the PM's area because of the global financial Tsunami, not because of charts. The World Story is much bigger than my charts or your respective charts. Good luck...

Amendments: I think Gold is leading, than it settles for a while. It appears it is making a run towards the $1700 mark...Silver seems to be lagging in the initial increases in Gold, but then it is trying to catch-up. So, GOLD first, then Silver.

Aug 7, 2011 - 10:36pm

Wynter Benton Group new message????????

WOW, I just got a weird post on my latest Wynter Benton thread over at Kitco, does anyone know who Jes Staley is?

Sorry Turd, I don't mean to drag people from your great site over there, just go and look at the post and come back! We (BoG and I) have mentioned to many people over there to check out Turd's site.

Aug 7, 2011 - 10:35pm


With maybe 15 pc decline in equities, and problems abound, state pensions will become further underfunded. Close to breaking.

Aug 7, 2011 - 10:29pm


Thanks for the insight on GC. I am certainly not accusing them of foul play, I just think that it is odd. In principle I see enough of banksters skimming and playing smoke and mirrors with petty charges.. that it goes against my grain to do business with a company that does that in, of all things, PM's. Not to squabble over a few cents, but on a larger order it does add up. I would rather pay a straight shooter more in a premium.. Okay, my venting is done.

Nice job on your acquisition. I picked up some ASE's friday betting silver would close a gap. But then again, I only keep a fraction of my rinse and repeat tactic. sigh

latchoDr G
Aug 7, 2011 - 10:28pm

RE: Metals out of steam

"taking a breather before making their real moves up ? "

Was your head buried in the popcorn ?

Aug 7, 2011 - 10:27pm

Wow patty and ginger

Three of us living in Pittsboro. . . Well technically I am 10 minutes from town.

You guys ever go to the farmer's markets?

Dr G
Aug 7, 2011 - 10:21pm

Metals out of steam for the

Metals out of steam for the evening, or taking a breather before making their real moves up?

Titus AndronicusDr G
Aug 7, 2011 - 10:19pm

RE: Apmex

The only good thing about APMEX, is you can pay by check and they don't need to receive it for a number of days. (7 days?)

So it is possible to buy with a bit of float. That can be useful when your money is soon but not yet.

Otherwise, the price and cost is very bad. Service always seemed OK to me.

You cannot beat Tulving's price. (Someone who knows a place with lower prices, please let me know!)

Aug 7, 2011 - 10:19pm

@Margaritatime - GVille Coins prices

I live down the road from GVille Coins here in Tampa. I asked them a long time ago when I was in their showroom one day picking up silver Buffalos why their silver prices always seemed to be like .05 to .10 above spot. Because I would have the actual spot on my blackberry and could show the difference. They told me their bid/ask price on their site is what they go by and it's linked in from some other site, but I can't recall anymore what site they said it was. That's when I learned that I could haggle with them on price though and they sold to me cheaper that day. But since then I've never made a big deal about trying to haggle over several cents one way or the other.

Anyways...hope that kinda explains the discrepancy. Keep stackin' no matter what! I grabbed 40 more oz's of silver Buffs on Friday at 38/oz plus 1.19 over spot...hoping we'll see one last beat-down tomorrow so I can cruz on in to snag a couple hundred more!

Aug 7, 2011 - 10:17pm

SPX & Dow

Think the DOW & SPX will keep crashing Monday? Any thoughts?

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