Re: Tonight. I Have No Idea.

492
122
Sun, Aug 7, 2011 - 1:26pm

It's Sunday in the U.S., a little after 1:00 EDT. The Globex opens in about five hours. There seem to be quite a few people who are interested in my opinion regarding how the metals will trade tonight and tomorrow. Frankly, I have no idea.

First of all, I've been on the record saying that I didn't think a ratings downgrade was coming. Oops. Shows you what I know. I am still stunned that it happened. Of course it needed to happen and AA+ is still too generous. A or A- would seem to be more fitting. However, since there is no principal risk in U.S. government debt (the Fed can print all the money they need to pay off bondholders), AA+ is OK, I guess. Now on the other hand, if S&P started taking inflation risk into consideration and began to factor in that you're really only getting 50c on the dollar back in principal purchasing power...well, lets just say that U.S. debt would be relegated to junk status. Regardless, U.S. debt is now rated AA+ and the effects of this will be far-reaching. We'll go into this in greater detail later this week when I have more time and can think more clearly. (For now, I'm a little hung over and I need a nap.)

As it pertains to the PMs...There is NO WAY that this news is not bullish. Extremely bullish. In the intermediate and long term. What you don't know about is tonight and tomorrow. As we saw last week, when everything else is being sold, the PM "baby" often gets thrown out with the bathwater. Gold should open UP at least $50. It should trade UP $100 tomorrow. Will it? Again, who knows? Gold may open higher and then get instantly battered lower in a global rush for liquidity.

Just watch. U.S. debt gets downgraded but the POSX and the long bond will both probably trade higher in a flight to safety. Oh well, it doesn't really matter. Like I said, gold may be down tomorrow. Who knows? But what I do know is this: Gold will be higher a month from now. It will be higher six months from now and it will be higher still a year from now. In that context, what happens tonight is of no consequence.

I'll try to have an update this evening, after things have been trading for a while. Until then sit back, relax and enjoy the fireworks. TF

11:55 pm EDT UPDATE:

Too tired to type but I wanted to give you this update with these levels to watch overnight and into Monday.

Turd nite nite now.

About the Author

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  492 Comments

bern
Aug 7, 2011 - 7:01pm

Silver (up 1.73%) is

Silver (up 1.73%) is outperforming gold (up 1.4%) at the moment.

llaettnerdmunjal
Aug 7, 2011 - 7:03pm

I'd LOVE to short AG @ close of $42 on Monday

I see no real investment loyalty in Silver trade, when it cannot hold the 40 ratio with Gold

Harald
Aug 7, 2011 - 7:03pm

Bart Chilton

Was just on FBN w/ Cavuto. Blamed the May 1st silver crash on lack of liquidity in a thin market.

lostinspace
Aug 7, 2011 - 7:04pm

Tomorrow

Want a peek into the future?

NYSE trading floor tomorrow.

Sell - trading places
lostinspacelostinspace
Aug 7, 2011 - 7:06pm

PMs

As for the PM bulls, here is our future.

Looking Good.wmv
Shill
Aug 7, 2011 - 7:07pm

Oh my

Check out the US dollar index

¤
Aug 7, 2011 - 7:07pm

Turkey revives military threat as Syrian tanks storm Deir al-Zou

...This was the last warning from Ankara – and therefore NATO – that Turkey was about to intervene militarily in Syria, after maintain army units on the Syrian border for weeks.
Friday, Aug. 5, Russia's NATO ambassador Dmitry Rogozin accused NATO, of which Turkey is a member, of planning a military campaign against Syria to help overthrow the Assad regime "with the long-reaching goal of preparing a beachhead for an attack on Iran...

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forum/1960/turkey-revives-military-threat...

Dr Durden
Aug 7, 2011 - 7:11pm

Check the ASE stock on APMEX.

Check the ASE stock on APMEX. They have 4500 2011's, but earlier years all have 500 or fewer.

"Thank you for your interest in APMEX. Unfortunately due to record sales, you'll get no phizz and you'll like it."

LMAO!

¤
Aug 7, 2011 - 7:11pm

BOJ intervention?

I'm guessing that was the case as the yen has completely reversed what was going on earlier.

The yen at 78 or lower was their number to intervene the last time also.

Throwing Sliver Hammers
Aug 7, 2011 - 7:14pm

Symphony of Destruction

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