Re: Tonight. I Have No Idea.

Sun, Aug 7, 2011 - 1:26pm

It's Sunday in the U.S., a little after 1:00 EDT. The Globex opens in about five hours. There seem to be quite a few people who are interested in my opinion regarding how the metals will trade tonight and tomorrow. Frankly, I have no idea.

First of all, I've been on the record saying that I didn't think a ratings downgrade was coming. Oops. Shows you what I know. I am still stunned that it happened. Of course it needed to happen and AA+ is still too generous. A or A- would seem to be more fitting. However, since there is no principal risk in U.S. government debt (the Fed can print all the money they need to pay off bondholders), AA+ is OK, I guess. Now on the other hand, if S&P started taking inflation risk into consideration and began to factor in that you're really only getting 50c on the dollar back in principal purchasing power...well, lets just say that U.S. debt would be relegated to junk status. Regardless, U.S. debt is now rated AA+ and the effects of this will be far-reaching. We'll go into this in greater detail later this week when I have more time and can think more clearly. (For now, I'm a little hung over and I need a nap.)

As it pertains to the PMs...There is NO WAY that this news is not bullish. Extremely bullish. In the intermediate and long term. What you don't know about is tonight and tomorrow. As we saw last week, when everything else is being sold, the PM "baby" often gets thrown out with the bathwater. Gold should open UP at least $50. It should trade UP $100 tomorrow. Will it? Again, who knows? Gold may open higher and then get instantly battered lower in a global rush for liquidity.

Just watch. U.S. debt gets downgraded but the POSX and the long bond will both probably trade higher in a flight to safety. Oh well, it doesn't really matter. Like I said, gold may be down tomorrow. Who knows? But what I do know is this: Gold will be higher a month from now. It will be higher six months from now and it will be higher still a year from now. In that context, what happens tonight is of no consequence.

I'll try to have an update this evening, after things have been trading for a while. Until then sit back, relax and enjoy the fireworks. TF

11:55 pm EDT UPDATE:

Too tired to type but I wanted to give you this update with these levels to watch overnight and into Monday.

Turd nite nite now.

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Aug 7, 2011 - 5:59pm

Safety Deposit boxes are not safe

Two stories for others on this board from California

1. A friend had his safety deposit box moved by a large bank WITHOUT authorization from the client. The bank told him that they were closing the boxes at one branch and moving them all to another branch, but did not inform him BEFORE the move. He had to drive across town to recover his possessions.

2. County and state tax collectors can seize your safety deposit box and all contents. I observed one family who had coins which belonged to a child seized when the family became embroiled in litigation. The court issued order to seize all assets and that included the safety deposit box. Sheriffs went to the bank and took possession of all the gold and silver in the box.

Aug 7, 2011 - 5:59pm



Aug 7, 2011 - 6:00pm

Rock n' Roll, a la Ranting Andy


It's Ranting Andy reporting from GATA Gold Rush in London which, after Day 1 of the proceedings, has PROVEN my assumption it would be the MOST IMPORTANT FINANCIAL CONFERENCE EVER. The crowd includes among the most concentrated group of "SMART, GOOD PEOPLE" I have ever been around, giving one strong presentation after the next and instilling a growing sense of EMPOWERMENT in the conference's roughly 400 attendees.

The loudest applause was generated for industry icon Jim Sinclair, whose words of philanthropic wisdom nearly brought me to tears. But his presentation was equaled in resonance by Precious Metal luminaries such as John Embry, Eric Sprott, Peter George, and James Turk, young guns like Ned Naylor-Leland and Ben Davies, and stalwart GATA lifers such as Adrian Douglas, Ed Steer, and James McShirley. Day 2 promises to be equally enthralling, headlined by Mexico's long-time silver crusader Hugo Salinas Price, gold Cartel litigant Reg Howe, global banking expert Jim Rickards, and of course CFTC whistleblower Andrew McGuire.

The conference has truly been blessed with a star-studded cast, as well as exquisite timing given its overlap with the obvious commencement of the END GAME for fiat currencies. The Savoy Hotel walls contained participants' focus on these wonderful speakers, but outside the unfurling of the 40-year old, failed global fiat experiment gained momentum. One never knows what event will trigger a cataclysm, but in this case it looks like collateral damage from the U.S. debt ceiling catastrophe (per my July 9th RANT, "Debt Ceiling Debacle - Death Blow to America") and the spreading of the PIIGS contagion to its largest member, Italy, may one day be remembered as such events.

While INSIDE Jim Sinclair espoused on the destructive force of over-the-counter derivatives, OUTSIDE the debt securities of Italy, Spain, and Portugal collapsed under the weight of swarming credit default swaps. I do not believe the Euro currency will survive this destructive event, occurring just 12 years after it was first introduced in 1999, and consequently millions of Europeans are likely to experience dramatically higher inflation in the coming years.

I can not imagine a greater irony than watching a market panic occur while GATA espouses its story for the world to hear, as 31 different countries are being represented at this conference. And by the way, Andrey Bykov of Russia is indeed here, no doubt to validate the reasons behind Russia's 400 tonnes of gold reserve additions since the last GATA conference in 2005, as well as to phone in an order to buy an additional 400 tonnes.

Meanwhile, gold rocketed higher to close Friday at $1,664/oz, an ALL-TIME HIGH despite some of the most blatant Cartel desperation attacks I've ever seen (at EXACTLY 12:00 PM EST on both Thursday and Friday, by the way), as well as MASSIVE, OVERT intervention by the Bank of Japan to prop up the dollar against the Yen.

And if those events were not enough to make your hair stand up, late on Friday night Standard & Poor's officially downgraded U.S. Treasury debt from its long-standing AAA rating to AA+, representing a major step toward investors' inevitable abandonment of bonds as a safe haven investment.

We all know S&P, Moody's and the whole lot of ratings agencies are a bribed group of shills, whose sole job is to ingratiate the firms (and sovereigns) that pay them, and just the fact they still had the U.S. rated AAA this late in the game should tell you how useless they are. But downgrading the supposed best credit in the world is no small political task (S&P execs should look over their shoulder this weekend), and is SURE to have massive ramifications on interest rates and investor perceptions in the weeks and months ahead.

There is LITTLE, IF ANY DOUBT we will see a spirited, and potentially disorderly rise in the only REAL SAFE ASSETS on earth this fall, i.e. GOLD and SILVER, coupled with the first discernible signs of FEAR in the populace regarding the future direction of America's finances. This movement can quickly snowball, and if so it will be extremely difficult for the gold Cartel to maintain the status quo of gold and silver price capping.

In turn, prepare for the potential for GLOBAL FINANCIAL MELTDOWN II to commence, with a slew of potential negative catalysts waiting in line for their turn at the headlines.

And one final note before heading back to the Day 2 proceedings, as regards the potential for another "Sunday Night Special" this week, which would represent the THIRD STRAIGHT WEEK of such emergency government/Fed/banker meetings. Unlike the past two weeks, as well as most of the 2008-09 Sunday night episodes, there will be no specific issue to fix, such as raising the debt ceiling to avoid imminent default.

Instead, the focus would shift toward the cumulative ramifications of the S&P debt downgrade Friday night, the ongoing PIIGS collape, and the collapsing U.S. economy and stock market. Don't be surprised to see some type of QE3 announced in the coming weeks, potentially even next week if we turn on the screens Sunday night to see further panic selling, particularly in European Treasury bonds.

I cannot emphasize how DANGEROUS this situation is becoming, and thus how IMPERATIVE it is to PROTECT YOURSELF from potentially difficult and trying times, including both surging unemployment and rapidly rising inflation.

Aug 7, 2011 - 6:01pm
Aug 7, 2011 - 6:01pm
Aug 7, 2011 - 6:02pm
Aug 7, 2011 - 6:02pm


Openning: Gold +16 Silver +0,5

Aug 7, 2011 - 6:03pm
Aug 7, 2011 - 6:04pm

Hahahah. - Markus


- Markus

Aug 7, 2011 - 6:04pm


up over $ comes $1700

Whats up with silver?....pretty odd

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