Re: Tonight. I Have No Idea.

492
122
Sun, Aug 7, 2011 - 1:26pm

It's Sunday in the U.S., a little after 1:00 EDT. The Globex opens in about five hours. There seem to be quite a few people who are interested in my opinion regarding how the metals will trade tonight and tomorrow. Frankly, I have no idea.

First of all, I've been on the record saying that I didn't think a ratings downgrade was coming. Oops. Shows you what I know. I am still stunned that it happened. Of course it needed to happen and AA+ is still too generous. A or A- would seem to be more fitting. However, since there is no principal risk in U.S. government debt (the Fed can print all the money they need to pay off bondholders), AA+ is OK, I guess. Now on the other hand, if S&P started taking inflation risk into consideration and began to factor in that you're really only getting 50c on the dollar back in principal purchasing power...well, lets just say that U.S. debt would be relegated to junk status. Regardless, U.S. debt is now rated AA+ and the effects of this will be far-reaching. We'll go into this in greater detail later this week when I have more time and can think more clearly. (For now, I'm a little hung over and I need a nap.)

As it pertains to the PMs...There is NO WAY that this news is not bullish. Extremely bullish. In the intermediate and long term. What you don't know about is tonight and tomorrow. As we saw last week, when everything else is being sold, the PM "baby" often gets thrown out with the bathwater. Gold should open UP at least $50. It should trade UP $100 tomorrow. Will it? Again, who knows? Gold may open higher and then get instantly battered lower in a global rush for liquidity.

Just watch. U.S. debt gets downgraded but the POSX and the long bond will both probably trade higher in a flight to safety. Oh well, it doesn't really matter. Like I said, gold may be down tomorrow. Who knows? But what I do know is this: Gold will be higher a month from now. It will be higher six months from now and it will be higher still a year from now. In that context, what happens tonight is of no consequence.

I'll try to have an update this evening, after things have been trading for a while. Until then sit back, relax and enjoy the fireworks. TF

11:55 pm EDT UPDATE:

Too tired to type but I wanted to give you this update with these levels to watch overnight and into Monday.

Turd nite nite now.

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  492 Comments

Chris P. Bacon
Aug 7, 2011 - 9:55pm

Welcome

Welcome, gadsden. Love your flag!

charliebravo
Aug 7, 2011 - 9:55pm

Price Ticker

Turd, is it possible to get a gold / silver price ticker on your home page. I like the one at https://www.gainesvillecoins.com/

charliebravo
Aug 7, 2011 - 9:55pm

Price Ticker

Turd, is it possible to get a gold / silver price ticker on your home page. I like the one at https://www.gainesvillecoins.com/


Aug 7, 2011 - 9:57pm

Paul: Thanks but I'm just a

Paul: Thanks but I'm just a dope with a MacBook. However, this site looks to already be in the Top 5 precious metals sites in the world. All thanks to everyone who participates!

DefiniteMaybe
Aug 7, 2011 - 9:59pm

RE: TSI Trading Technique

@Save America 1st

I've been using John's TSI technique for the past few months now and there is validity to this TA (e.g., I used TSI to short the S&P500 last week and did pretty well). However, like Much4Him said, you just don't know in a currency crisis. You also have to consider the EE raids as well which TSI cannot capture, or any TA for that matter. (That's why we have the Turd.)

Back around mid May John was calling for something like $24 in Silver which didn't pan out. So you have to take TSI, and any TA, with a grain of salt. (Not to knock John. He does a very excellent job of explaining TSI and takes the time to respond to people's comments.)

BTW, I like your handle. It's very appropriate.

DM

charliebravo
Aug 7, 2011 - 10:00pm

I don't know

I guess we could look into it, though.

Kiwi
Aug 7, 2011 - 10:00pm

Are we having some fun....

...or what!

BTW, the Great Panther site seems to have a fixed price of 40.50 per ounce, it looks like in an hour or so that will be below spot, so anyone looking for a great deal might go there.

Larry
Aug 7, 2011 - 10:01pm

Sorry but, were aliens giving hat tips?

“We were brains washed to think that Socialism is evil, and Capitalism is good. Well, today we are seeing what happens when we allow Capitalism at the expense of Social Democracy. Capitalism is only working for the few and at the expense of the masses. (btw, I'm not a proponent of Communism because it never works, sounds good on paper, but once again you give too much power to the government). We have to focus on a path to social democracy.”

Stingbee, in your comment above you made a few good observations but with all due respect, I have to correct you on several pretty major points. I see that you garnered quite a few hat tips, which surprises me on this board. Maybe we have more left leaning folks here than I thought. May be that I’m in the minority here when it comes to capitalism and “social democracy”.

First, I’m not sure how anyone could think Communism “sounds good on paper”. Not even sure what to say about that one. We agree that government schools have, over time, drip by drip, indoctrinated generations of people (let’s save “brainwashed” for the CIA). This has, in large part, been a successful strategy by herding people to accept/adopt a Liberal Progressive mindset with “social democracy” as the purposefully misleading ideological banner.

Social Democracy might sound good to you in theory but in reality it’s just another name for Socialism, which has never worked. Ever. Anywhere. Contrary to popular understanding (must have been the schools), America is too Socialist NOW, and that is a major part of our problem. There are simply too many non-producers (government paper-pushers) and too many people living a permanent lifestyle as generational wards of the state.

Obviously we cannot afford to spend more than we earn as an individual, a family, a city or nation. We can’t continue to consume more than we produce. That setup is not sustainable and leads to exactly where we are now in America and much of the world. Those promoting social democracy are ignorant, disingenuous or naïve.

Capitalism is NOT the problem… it is the only solution. Maybe you’ve confused Capitalism with CRONY CAPITALISM. There is a huge difference… like the difference between a free market, where fundamentals count for something and a manipulated market, where all that matters is taking every last penny the criminals can steal through high frequency trading algo-bots, MSM pumping/covering and government intervention/allowance of crime. Think CFTC, SEC, JPM, Goldman, GE, Buffett…

Capitalism rewards success with hard work, smart choices and risk. It does not reward the entitled ones that expect a handout and something for nothing.

Crony Capitalism rewards those greedy thieves that lie, cheat, steal and prosper simply because they are in cahoots with wicked leaders.

Social Democracy/Progressivism grows the government and rewards the ultra-rich elite class (along with their cronies). The growth and riches are funded by the blood, sweat, tears and taxes paid by the producers… the middle class. The middle class then disappears when it can’t afford food, housing, energy and healthcare. Throughout history this always happens. It is happening today. We are headed for a two-class system; ultra rich and serf. Soon, a very small percentage will be considered middle class. Hopefully it is the wise ones on this board that have protected themselves and prepared.

Apologies for this on such a big night in the market and to all the social democracy hat tippers. But if we let erroneous things like this slide, we accept it and become it. Then, the government schools have succeeded, as have the crony capitalists and the elitists.

kliguy38
Aug 7, 2011 - 10:03pm

MINERS

will post targets tomorrow on support levels.....but almost ALL of my tail touches on miners were hit intraday on Friday.......so it is possible that an important trading bottom was hit friday........next two days will tell

Dr Durden
Aug 7, 2011 - 10:04pm

Just put 9999 ASE's in my

Just put 9999 ASE's in my cart at APMEX. Apparently the silver truck just backed up to the warehouse.

margaritatime
Aug 7, 2011 - 10:07pm

Gainsville spot

Great idea CB, Turd does need a ticker... We could call it the "Ticking Turd".

I do have a comment [unrelated] to the shown spot price the Gainsville is reflecting though. Awhile back I thought their ticker was just lagging in real time basis. However, as of the time of this writing they are showing $1698.26, I have a real time feed that shows a high of $1695.58.

I have noticed this before on the silver sister too - especially during their flash sales, their indicated price is always higher than the actual spot price.

Anyone have any idea what that is all about - I mean aside the ethical advertised price of what a company is charging for premiums, is it really ethical to offer a lower premium but jack the spot price from the actual? Curious if anyone has noticed this.

silversalmon
Aug 7, 2011 - 10:12pm

Gold is PIMP slapping these

Gold is PIMP slapping these f*cking BANKERS! This is going to be a GOT DAMN RELIGIOUS EXPERIENCE for these Central Banking Crooks. I'm creating my own damn central bank. Stacking Gold and Silver till Obummer vomits on himself at a Whitehouse conference or 12,500 GOLD, whichever comes first. I'm sick of this SH*T! RUN GOLD RUN!

Hitler and the S&P downgrade
Vypuero
Aug 7, 2011 - 10:17pm

SPX & Dow

Think the DOW & SPX will keep crashing Monday? Any thoughts?

Save_America1st
Aug 7, 2011 - 10:19pm

@Margaritatime - GVille Coins prices

I live down the road from GVille Coins here in Tampa. I asked them a long time ago when I was in their showroom one day picking up silver Buffalos why their silver prices always seemed to be like .05 to .10 above spot. Because I would have the actual spot on my blackberry and could show the difference. They told me their bid/ask price on their site is what they go by and it's linked in from some other site, but I can't recall anymore what site they said it was. That's when I learned that I could haggle with them on price though and they sold to me cheaper that day. But since then I've never made a big deal about trying to haggle over several cents one way or the other.

Anyways...hope that kinda explains the discrepancy. Keep stackin' no matter what! I grabbed 40 more oz's of silver Buffs on Friday at 38/oz plus 1.19 over spot...hoping we'll see one last beat-down tomorrow so I can cruz on in to snag a couple hundred more!

Titus Andronicus Dr G
Aug 7, 2011 - 10:19pm

RE: Apmex

The only good thing about APMEX, is you can pay by check and they don't need to receive it for a number of days. (7 days?)

So it is possible to buy with a bit of float. That can be useful when your money is soon but not yet.

Otherwise, the price and cost is very bad. Service always seemed OK to me.

You cannot beat Tulving's price. (Someone who knows a place with lower prices, please let me know!)

Dr G
Aug 7, 2011 - 10:21pm

Metals out of steam for the

Metals out of steam for the evening, or taking a breather before making their real moves up?

mdcromer oldtimegal
Aug 7, 2011 - 10:27pm

Wow patty and ginger

Three of us living in Pittsboro. . . Well technically I am 10 minutes from town.

You guys ever go to the farmer's markets?

latcho Dr G
Aug 7, 2011 - 10:28pm

RE: Metals out of steam

"taking a breather before making their real moves up ? "

Was your head buried in the popcorn ?

margaritatime
Aug 7, 2011 - 10:29pm

Save_Am

Thanks for the insight on GC. I am certainly not accusing them of foul play, I just think that it is odd. In principle I see enough of banksters skimming and playing smoke and mirrors with petty charges.. that it goes against my grain to do business with a company that does that in, of all things, PM's. Not to squabble over a few cents, but on a larger order it does add up. I would rather pay a straight shooter more in a premium.. Okay, my venting is done.

Nice job on your acquisition. I picked up some ASE's friday betting silver would close a gap. But then again, I only keep a fraction of my rinse and repeat tactic. sigh

Mickey TF
Aug 7, 2011 - 10:35pm

States

With maybe 15 pc decline in equities, and problems abound, state pensions will become further underfunded. Close to breaking.

mrgneiss
Aug 7, 2011 - 10:36pm

Wynter Benton Group new message????????

WOW, I just got a weird post on my latest Wynter Benton thread over at Kitco, does anyone know who Jes Staley is?

https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?p=1456529#post1456529

Sorry Turd, I don't mean to drag people from your great site over there, just go and look at the post and come back! We (BoG and I) have mentioned to many people over there to check out Turd's site.

stingbee30
Aug 7, 2011 - 10:38pm

In these environments, you need to throw away the technicals

I wanted to bring this thread back to the last page. So far, it appears that my assessment is coming to fruition. As i write, i wouldn't be surprised to see Silver closing around $40.50 before the European Markets opening. During the European market session, We could see Silver trading as high as $41.25-$41.50 before the US market opens. This is going to hurt a lot of shorts from last week. My initial assessment of a close around $42.00-$42.50 is in the cards for tomorrow. Gold should close around $1725-1750.

As for Tuesday, we could see Silver reaching towards the $44.00-$45.00 mark. Regardless, by the end of this week, Silver and Gold could see a close around $50.00 and $1800 respectively.

Today, it is all about fundamentals and what is happening around you. You have global reckoning happening on both sides of the Atlantic. You have the continued Arab spring which adds more stress and anxiety to the the world investor. You have protest in Israel, and riots in the UK. This Arab spring is the start of new movement to fight inflation, unemployment, bad leadership, greed, and injustice. This is going to reach other shores, it is just a matter of time...

Smart money is telling you that smart investors are slowly losing interest in the global currency market. You might have a few countries like Canada, Singapore, Australia who have better balance sheet, but there is not much liquidity. For smart investors, Gold is becoming an alternative means to protect their falling assets and currency debasement. In the US, we don't have the visionary leadership who will go behind their close-minded ideology, and start focusing what is good for America, not the lobbyist and special interest groups. We are hijacked by oil companies, banks, wallstreet firms, the strongest lobbyist from Israel, two wars without a sound resolution, and war-mongering lobbyist who still wants to keep the defense spending. We have to cut ties from our inflated egos and superficial claims to military dominance. We have to start thinking about America first, and then military spending. We need to cut defense spending by 40-50% just to survive. We have 50 million Americans on Food stamp, and about 25% or so underemployed/unemployed/discouraged workers. We have to understand the reality. We are not a super power like we are believed to think. It is just on paper. We have expensive military toys, but not enough money to help states continue battle unemployment benefits and other social causes. We were brains washed to think that Socialism is evil, and Capitalism is good. Well, today we are seeing what happens when we allow Capitalism at the expense of Social Democracy. Capitalism is only working for the few and at the expense of the masses. (btw, I'm not a proponent of Communism because it never works, sounds good on paper, but once again you give too much power to the government). We have to focus on a path to social democracy. It shouldn't be all about interest rates and how much i can leverage my investments. The Futures market in Oil is clear indication of greed and leveraging, and it is not about real delivery.

Back to Gold and Silver Story: Today, stop looking at the charts (yes, it gives us numerical benchmarks to follow). Today, it is all about what is happening around the world. It is not just the US, but Europe, the Middle East, two wars. I think you get the picture. There is a lot of anxiety and stress in the world. The classic safe-havens of US Treasury and dollar is becoming a thing of the past. Silver and Gold always had real value based on our history. It is a real hard assets. So, on Monday, we could easily see Gold passing the $1700 mark, and killing all the shorts with the buy-stops. Silver is going to follow it's big brother lead because Silver was used as a currency a while back. It really doesn't matter whether the dollar goes up or not. The reality is that it is for traders to make a few bucks. But, Silver and Gold will de-link or de-couple from what Oil is doing or Dollar. The reality is that smart investors are not going to pile-up on more dollars because the currency is worthless because it is not backed by anything. The idea of "Full Faith and Credit worthy" of the US has been challenged, and it is going to get worse. The idea that America was the savior of the financial market or the place of last resort has come to a climatic phase. There is always hope that as humans we will eventually learn from our mistakes and wake-up. We are in dire need of visionary leadership who don't prescribe to ideologies that seem outdated. The two party system is not working. It was working back then because people still believed in compromise and crossed their ideological base for the common good.

The Euro/European Union sounded good on paper, just like communism. But in reality, it is a dysfunctional organization with so many different countries and ideologies. Germany the most stable country in Europe is supposed to save all the other countries. France (taking the lead) is another joke. In summary, the World problems are far much bigger than our daily charts and daily resistance or weekly levels. The Macro economic fundamentals are far more important. So, do me a favor, stop looking too much at the charts. You will be handsomely rewarded in the PM's area because of the global financial Tsunami, not because of charts. The World Story is much bigger than my charts or your respective charts. Good luck...

Amendments: I think Gold is leading, than it settles for a while. It appears it is making a run towards the $1700 mark...Silver seems to be lagging in the initial increases in Gold, but then it is trying to catch-up. So, GOLD first, then Silver.

Shill
Aug 7, 2011 - 10:40pm
Turdle GG
Aug 7, 2011 - 10:41pm

Gold approaching the important +2% level

I am not aware of any day where the "gold seldom "allowed" to rise more than 2%" in a day rule has been broken during Asian market hours.

Santa's $1,764 is not far away.

What hedge fund would put on more short positions in the miners in this environment?

Dr G latcho
Aug 7, 2011 - 10:42pm

These moves thus far aren't

These moves thus far aren't the moves we are looking for. Trust me.

latcho
Aug 7, 2011 - 10:46pm

RE: In these environments, you need to throw away the technicals

Fair observation.
But for the entertainment factor, let's then rename them into the Small Sheeple-O-Panic meter and the Big Sheeple-O-Panic meter.
And hell yes, we love to chart them.

Slick mrgneiss
Aug 7, 2011 - 10:50pm

???   James E.

???

James E. Staley

Chief Executive Officer of the Investment Bank

JP Morgan Chase & Co

New York , NY

Sector: FINANCIAL / Money Center Banks

Officer since December 2000 54 Years Old Chief Executive Officer of the Investment Bank since September 2009, prior to which he had been Chief Executive Officer of Asset Management. Jes Staley, CEO of the firm?s Investment Bank, will assume additional responsibility for overseeing and coordinating the firm?s international franchise across all of its businesses. https://people.forbes.com/profile/james-e-staley/46645
RuNuts mrgneiss
Aug 7, 2011 - 10:50pm
diegeiro
Aug 7, 2011 - 10:52pm

munis

Seems that a rating change on munis will only continue the destruction of our Republic by further weakening our states and is part of the plan by TPTB. S&P would like to make people believe their rating change is because of the Republicans and the Tea Party in spite of their decision to do it irregardless. However, I don't think the Tea Party or any of the Republocrats helped to prevent this decision. My guess is that is was politically expedient for a variety of reasons, none of which are particularly good for the majority of citizens.

I personally would like a (top) button at the bottom of the comments page to take me to the top of the page so that I can toggle between charts and comment pages without having to scroll all the way back to the top while getting caught up on comments . How hard can that be?

When a raid and/or waterfall starts it can happen very quickly. If you are in older comments you can miss the current warnings by fellow turdites.

Haole
Aug 7, 2011 - 10:53pm

Dollar death

@Shill

I was just thinking about that film when I read this post on ZH. ;)

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/china-isnt-exactly-floating-yuan

Cheers!

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