Three Weekly Charts

Fri, Aug 5, 2011 - 6:36pm

Whew! I don't know about you but I am glad this week is over! I'm just glad I had all of you to share it with.

I made a couple of changes today within my trading account today. I guessed that a brief selloff would materialize around lunchtime and, luckily, I absolutely nailed it. I made a very quick and tidy little profit on some ES calls. I quickly rolled out of them and now I am in:

1) October gold call spreads 1700 vs 1800

2) December gold call spreads 1700 vs 1800

3) September silver call spreads 40 vs 45

Only the silver makes me nervous (time is short) and has me worried (didn't rally back today like everything else). Actually, it kind of pisses me off a little bit. The ES rallies 40 points. Gold rebounds $15. Crude bounces back $3. Silver...blechk. Oh well, I must be patient. Provided there are no overwhelmingly bad headlines over the weekend, we look to head into Monday with a general "risk ON" mindset. Maybe I'll catch a break.

Speaking of headlines, did you see this a few minutes ago?

If you were wondering why gold was so strong on the Globex, I guess you just got your answer! Personally, I still cannot believe that a U.S.-based ratings agency will be allowed to downgrade U.S. government debt. The implications for insurance companies, mutual funds and pension funds would be calamitous. I'll guess we'll see.

OK, onto the charts. First, let's take a look at gold. For all the craziness, the Dec gold contract finished UP another $34. Headline risk is everything at this point, however, gold looks certain to test the 1680-85 level again next week. After that, it's anyone's guess. IF it rallies another $40 next week and closes near or above $1700, all bets will come off. Gold will have the appearance of an accelerating uptrend as it would be breaking out and through its nearly three year uptrend. It's going to be a very exciting and consequential week.

Silver isn't nearly as exciting. You know I've been going on and on lately about lack of follow-through due to the meager 120,000 short interest. OI finally perked up this week as we headed toward 42+ and then, of course, came the smashdown. This weekly chart looks sickly and, frankly, gives me a feeling that 36 is in the cards before we ever go back and break through 42. In the very short-term, however, I can see an early-week rally next week that takes silver back up near $40 and maybe even $40.50. You can bet you arse I'll be dumping that spread when it gets there.

Lastly, I've received several requests for an opinion on crude. I had hoped that 88-90 would hold but, once that failed in the massive dump on Thursday, you had to figure that 84 was in the cards. You can see that on the chart below. That should do it. IF 84 fails, it looks like it could trade to 80. At 80, it would sure look to be one heckuva good buy. If anyone out there is trading crude, be sure to buy yourself plenty of time. It looks to go much higher but maybe not as soon as next week. Be patient and you'll be rewarded.

OK, that's all for now. I'm going to take a couple of days off so consider this your open thread for the weekend. I think we all found great value from this site this week. Go forth and convert as many new Turdites as possible.


p.s. It's 10:00 pm EDT Friday night and I felt I had to chime in. I must admit that I am absolutely stunned and flabbergasted that S&P has officially downgraded U.S. debt to AA+ with a negative outlook. This is truly an historic event and one that will have repercussions for weeks and months to come. At first glance, I can't see how the PMs don't experience a huge rally on Monday but, who knows? One thing I do know, however, is that gold and silver will be higher in a month. They'll be higher still in six months and even higher a year from now. The Great Keynesian Experiment is ending. Do not, under any circumstances, sell you precious metal. They are your only financial protection.

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


tread_w_care tread_w_care
Aug 6, 2011 - 10:21pm

Apmex nastygram reprint here

Now, in my case our state (NC) charges 7.75% sales tax on coins and bullion (so the local coin shop guy says). That's a hefty premium on top of already hefty premiums for the couple of local shops that deal. I've yet to find a good local shop, and would get killed on sales tax anyway. Bummer for us. Now looking at Gainesville and a couple of others rec'd here.

Aug 6, 2011 - 10:40pm

I think the downgrade was a

I think the downgrade was a political message and a reality check and a chance for S&P to be the 1st major ratings agency to downgrade the U.S. when it seems inevitable anyway. At some point S&P will be seen as ahead of everyone on this. Just not right now.

I think this is where China makes it's move and way sooner then anyone realizes or expected. Todays bellicose rhetoric publicly chastising the U.S. in front of the world is humiliating. What was our Presidents response???(crickets chirping)

Think about what Putin said a week ago about us being parasites etc. What was our presidents response??? (Jiminey Crickets) I think that Russia and China have been actively bashing the POSX for awhile now and given the opportunity they will pounce on this and not let go of it. It's our moment of weakness and don't think they haven't planned or helped it along.

IMO if China starts to dump our treasuries with 3 months then they are after the Reserve Currency or a shared global currency where the dollar isn't dominate. They can weaken us now if they choose to with a "sell" posture in the bond markets and in the FX markets. If you think that would be foolish on their part then I would reconsider how they just blasted us in the paper and what they said. That was a head slap in front of the whole world. They have pretty agressive towards us lately on several issue's....all in public.

"IF" our Govt. is also behind this and it's part of a planned event to weaken the dollar then we'll know so if our leaders are strangely silent and don't take exception to the Chinese and Russian remarks.

The only thing I hear from them about any of that is...(chirp, chirp, chirp...)

I'm predicting this happens a lot faster then we can imagine. It seems like everything else is at this point, so why stop now? Everything we know about is happening and quickly, so it's no suprise even though it sucks

shallow_explorer tread_w_care
Aug 6, 2011 - 10:49pm

APMEX Pricing

APMEX's spot price changed today from $38.42 to the present $39.15. I suspect this change was tied to the increase in India. While APMEX hasn't modified their weekend prices in the past (that I have noticed), do you really blame them for doing it today? The Indian market is saying silver is up from Friday's Kitco spot of $38.42/oz. Even at APMEX's present "spot" price, you will be hard pressed to beat their $410.40 price for 10 oz (2 ATBs). Provident also has great prices, but their lowest prices on the ATBs is 207.5/ATB and that's if you buy 50 of them. Tulving almost always is the price leader. Assuming Haynes hasn't adjusted his spot price, then he is now about $0.50/oz under APMEX's price BUT you have to buy 500 oz of one coin design, additionally he's showing the asked price as $38.62 while Kitco is at $38.42 so he's at lease $0.20/oz over Kitco spot. Finally, Tulving's site is not nearly as automated when it comes to pricing, so unless you call Haynes and confirm his spot price, you won't know the final price for sure anyway.

Changing the spot price is a trick that a lot of the bullion dealers play, especially during market changes. I first noticed it at Gainesville. But APMEX was also doing it when silver was cratering on the 4th. Bottom line, you can get mad at them, but they all do it. I just compare prices for the product I want, when I want it, and buy it from the reputable company that is the cheapest. For less than 250 oz, I suspect you'll find that APMEX is presently still the lowest price on ATBs. As another option, just wait until the market begins trading tomorrow night, APMEX's prices will reset at the Kitco spot and you can buy... most likely at a much higher price, but at least it will be at spot + $1.89.

Aug 6, 2011 - 10:53pm


I've never dealt with them but making up your own spot price seems pretty shoddy. You may wish to also register your displeasure at the link below as well as here and with Apmex themselves.

On second thoughts posting at the link is likely to be cathartic but of little benefit in seeking redress. It may perhaps be a warning to others but possibly not worth the effort of registration. Interesting to see if they get more complaints than other dealers relative to their size though.

Aug 6, 2011 - 10:55pm
tread_w_care Agnostic
Aug 6, 2011 - 11:00pm

@agnostic, did it anyway

I don't tolerate BS like Apmex has pulled very well.

So, direct nastygram, pissedconsumer complaint, blasted them on their Facebook wall demanding an explanation, filled out their customer satisfaction survey, and I'll continue the campaign on Monday. BBB and FBI internet fraud complaints up next. Got to look the last one up but I know there's an avenue.

If nothing else we should ensure no one here in Turdistan ever spends another dime of any FIAT currency with those assholes.

Eric Original
Aug 6, 2011 - 11:01pm


DPH said: "I'm impressed with the 50's beauty and design and the heft in your hand is there when your palming it. It's nicely proportioned."

​Well said indeed. Jingle-worthy. Heft-appeal. They all apply.

Interesting to note that the Austrian 100 Corona has the same diameter, yet is not nearly so impressive in the hand since it is too thin. The Centenario is perfectly proportioned for so large a coin. Yes.

Sorry to say, I do not know of a silver coin that has the same gravitas.

​BTW, the Mexico 50 Peso is referred to as the "Centenario" because it was first minted in 1921 on the 100th anniversary of Mexican Independence. Most of the ones you see are dated 1947 and those were restrikes, minted into the 1970's.

Aug 6, 2011 - 11:04pm

@ shallow_explorer . . .

You #$%^damned right I blame them. I've not seen Tulving do this, ever. He's very clear on his pricing.

If you want to up it, up it in your product pricing, but don't try to pass a completely fabricated spot price, that reeks of dishonest business practices.

Aug 6, 2011 - 11:28pm

The Song Remains the Same

The Song Remains the Same - Led Zeppelin
Aug 6, 2011 - 11:31pm

Usually a rit of fage isn't

Usually a rit of fage isn't the best time for confrontations. Deal is done? Maybe wait till Mon. and see what is?

Please forgive the butt-in.

shallow_explorer tread_w_care
Aug 6, 2011 - 11:32pm


I've been where you are at the moment. For me, I was upset at Gainesville because they were the first ones that I noticed changed their spot prices. But posted spot doesn't really matter. It's the total (spot + mark up) that matters, in other words the total price. As example, look at the spread of present spot prices:

APMEX $39.15

Provident $38.42 (= Kitco asked price)

Tulving $38.62 (note this is his "asked" price, you never get to buy on the "bid")

So who's right? It doesn't matter. The only thing that is important is the TOTAL price.

Provident has the lowest spot. But Provident's lowest total price on ATBs is $209.5/Olympic ATB ($207.5 if you buy 250 oz).

APMEX has the highest spot, but their ATB cost is $205.20/coin for the Gettysburg/Glacier combo, over $4, or $0.80/oz, cheaper than Provident.

Aug 6, 2011 - 11:40pm

Smoke on the Water

Video unavailable
Bay of Pigs
Aug 6, 2011 - 11:40pm


I couldn't agree with you more. Something sure smells like shit on this deal. All the the jawboning and all the antics the last month (Kabuki theater) on the debt ceiling are now revealed for the what it was. It was pure horseshit and absolutely nothing was solved. In fact, things have gotten far, far worse.

So buckle up my fellow Turdophiles. Gold and silver are coiling for another leg up.

Aug 6, 2011 - 11:44pm

Free Bird

Lynyrd Skynyrd - Free Bird 1976
RuNuts ¤
Aug 6, 2011 - 11:57pm

@DPH Re: Provident

I do business with Provident, they're my go to for pre 1933 Au, special silver bars & PM supplies.

Aug 6, 2011 - 11:57pm

Anyone got a URL for the spot price in India?

Anyone have a URL for the spot price of gold and silver in India today?

I'm confused regarding the market trading in India today.

Does anyone have a URL for the Indian markets and a currency conversion ?

Aug 7, 2011 - 12:07am

Dazed and Confused

Video unavailable
Aug 7, 2011 - 12:10am

war what is it good for

war my god what is it good for absolutly nothing. except for the fact that for millumim it has made the powers that be money.

I do not post on a regular basis, and I do not post while I am drinking, but tonight I will make an exception. while we are all wondering what monday will bring in the metals there is still a world out there that is in cahous. we have to try to use all are skills to figure out how to play this market. it is rigged we know this . but if I undersand this site , we have a group of people who right or wrong try to help each other " thanks turd ". I come from a world where you were drafted, you had no choice. now I am much older. that being said, I hope I am not stupid. I try to learn day by day. my hope is that they will not use war to get there will done , but history says they will . "by the way when I say drink I mean drink ". It really takes guts to belive in the metals, very few of my friends listen to me " some do " but they are very few". I guess the point I am trying to make is stay true to your beliefs and listen to the ones on here that have a much better day to day plan than I do. but also pay attention to the day to day news. for those of you that just hold PHYS you are right for you that are playing WOW I I just have to say good luck. I play options and I play options on the SLV . AND GLD. very bad condsidering they may fail . so much for my . so much for my opinion. wow that is about as far as I caan go hey i did not get spell check

Aug 7, 2011 - 12:11am

currency conversion for rupees etc

these are probably friday afternoon figures - just before the credit downgrade was announced. from kitco























Urban Roman
Aug 7, 2011 - 12:22am

100 percent discount!

Colorado Gold is offering a 100% discount, this weekend only!

Plus or minus a small fee, sometimes they send you money just to order some Krugs!

(I suspect they'll be correcting their web page some time tomorrow)

(Pictures to show it really happened)

Aug 7, 2011 - 12:28am

Live quote page for India commodities

Give this a try:

I'm not sure about the price conversion, is it rupees per gram? But it shows gold up 1.68 % and silver up 2%.... whoopie! (if true).

Aug 7, 2011 - 12:29am

The NIAs take on the ratings

The NIAs take on the ratings downgrade:

...and this at the very end of the article: "Gold and silver are the only true safe havens and it is our belief that by the end of this year, the U.S. public will begin investing into gold and silver in droves as they realize that although we avoided a debt default for now, a debt default by inflation is still on its way. The largest ever short-term rally in precious metals and mining stocks is ahead."

Aug 7, 2011 - 12:36am

Get Ready Fiat

Get Ready everybody because the Fiat money ponzi scheme's demise is accelerating. .....And in a fun little twist on those words.. I thought this video was just plain cool. ...... ..... ....Although it has absolutely nothing to do with anything. ..other than the words 'get', 'ready', and 'fiat'. ... ... Oh ..nevermind. Just watch it. (see what I just did there?) :D

Video unavailable
Aug 7, 2011 - 12:46am

price conversion for rupees per gram to $ per troy oz.

multiply rupees/gram price by 31.1 to get rupees per troy oz.

divide by 44.72 to get $ per t.oz.

Aug 7, 2011 - 12:56am

APMEX, My Ass...

Don't be so judgemental, Once in a while there is a loss leader to jump on, or an unusual item or whatever. I always shop around.

The ATB's for example...

Provident (2 Gettysburgs [no Glaciers]) = Grand Total $436.05

APMEX (1Gburg, 1 Glacier) = Grand total = $420.40

Who's an ass now?

Tulving? Great if you're buying Monster Boxes, 10 oz, not so much.

eBay? Nice if you feel lucky and want to spend a week monitoring auctions to save $10.

I can stay at work that hour and make a bit more.

Anyway this showed up in the APMEX shopping cart...

*Attention – Due to the uncertainty in the global precious metals markets, we will not be able to accept any additional orders until the global markets re-open in Asia. We expect to be accepting orders around 6:15 pm EST. Sunday August 7th, 2011, following the market open.

Se la vie!

Aug 7, 2011 - 12:57am

Obama commissions Hollywood pic on OBL raid

Read her other articles about the execution of SEAL team 6.
Posted by Ann Barnhardt - August 6, AD 2011 9:48 PM MST

Yep. Published this very day, written by uber-leftist Maureen Dowd of the New York Times. The Obama regime has commissioned a major motion picture about the fake Bin Laden raid. The film will be released . . . October 12, 2012.

Guys, we're into full-blown Leni Reifenstahl territory now.

exiledbear kenklave
Aug 7, 2011 - 12:58am

If Martin Armstrong is confused over this

The rest of us schmucks have no hope at all. And we aren't seeing the full picture of what is really going on behind the scenes - of course he's confused, and so are we.

All I know is what I know - gold is still in a good sound bull market - ignored, hated, vilified - but still going up in spite of it all. Even when the MSM pays attention to the all-time new highs, it's to urge you to SELL.

Hard to say what will happen on Monday, and I think to a large degree, it's unknowable until we get there. Whatever happens in the short term, I think what has happened this weekend is long term good for gold.

kenklave exiledbear
Aug 7, 2011 - 1:03am

Armstrong is not confused, he

Armstrong is not confused, he just said that the decision is going to have very little impact except to roil the markets in the short term. The decision was a political one.

Aug 7, 2011 - 1:11am

ginger, re fiat 500's

cute little cars. since germany just pronounced italy too big to bail, maybe we'll see fiats priced in lira soon. maybe at deep discounts. i understand the new 500's get great gas mileage.

Aug 7, 2011 - 1:15am

Urban Roman...

I went to Colorado's website and I don't understand their pricing. How do I figure what they want for lets say a gold eagle based on what the website is showing right now. Thanks!!


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