Fri, Aug 5, 2011 - 9:17am

Weren't the looks on the faces of The Shill and The Coug absolutely priceless? "What? An upside surprise?" Look, we don't refer to it as the BLS"BS" report around here for nothing. The BLS has the ability, through their goofy and worthless statistics like the "birth/death adjustment" to make their monthly reports sing in whichever manner they choose. Sometimes the data is so bad that it's impossible to touch up. Sometimes, like July, when the markets need a boost and a shot of stability, the BLS is able to goose the numbers just enough to take some pressure off. I haven't seen the internals of the report yet but I am highly confident that, once released, it will be plain for all who care to see.

Tucked away in the comments section of the blog from yesterday afternoon was this:

"BTW, upon further review, any BLSBS number tomorrow should be positive for gold.

Bad BLS: Ensures QE3. Positive for gold.

Good BLS: Provides "stability" for stock market. PMs recover, too."

And I suspect that this is true. Though there will be volatility today, there should not be any of the abject panic that prevailed yesterday. As I type, the S&P is up 9 points or so and gold is off $2 at $1657.

There are still plenty of reasons for the equities markets to be spooked, however. All of the funky stuff coming out of Europe should keep you checking the headlines this weekend. Expect more of the same into next week. Gold, having found a floor twice right near 1645, looks poised for a rebound next week. The question is the shape of the rebound. I suspect that, sometime today, we'll get one more push down toward 1645. Whether or not that level holds again will determine the shape of the short-term bottom. If I had to guess, I'd say it's 75/25 that 1645-50 holds for the third time and we rally higher from there. On the off chance it doesn't, I'll get my momentary drop to 1635. From there, I'd look for a rally and then a dip back toward 1645, giving us a cozy, little reverse H&S. The question for me is: Do I move my "stink bid" up to the 1645ish level or do I hope for the 25% chance of getting gold down to 1635. I'll keep you posted.

Silver is a similar deal, though the chart is flatter. I strongly suspect we'll get another look at 38.60 or so later this morning. Whether or not that hold is anyone's guess. I suspect it will but I would not rule out a quick dip that approaches 38. IF that were to happen, I'd be all over it. Unfortunately, yesterday's smash occurred just as traders were beginning to return to the silver pit. OI had finally broken through 120,000 but I'm sure we'll see it back under 120,000 when we get the numbers later today. Because of this, it will likely lollygag around between 38 and 40 for a while. You can bet your arse that The EE would be very happy to see silver contained in a little 38-40 box all the way through the Spetember "first notice day" later this month. For now, I'm just sitting on my puny, out-of-the-money silver spreads and waiting.

As I publish this, we've got a rally! S&P is up 14, gold is 1662 and silver is 39.30. Let's see what the morning brings. TF


For those of you who don't regularly check the comments, I apologize if you missed this:

Let's see if they goose the

Submitted by Turd Ferguson on August 5, 2011 - 10:44am.

Let's see if they goose the market a little bit before/around lunchtime. Maybe take the S&P down toward 1170-75. Perhaps create a momentary pukejob in the PMs. I'll try to buy that dip.

And this:

OK. That worked.

Submitted by Turd Ferguson on August 5, 2011 - 11:10am.

I got my pukejob. S&P held just below 1170.

I put on a 1700 vs 1800 spread in Oct gold and a 40 vs 45 spread in Sept silver.

I strongly suspect that the worst is over for least for today. Don't be surprised if the S&P even moves back into the green this afternoon as dip buyers move in. The same should be true for the PMs. They will likely follow stocks back up.

More later this afternoon. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Aug 5, 2011 - 9:22am

Good Morning, Turd and

Turdites. Here's to a good day! Coffee cup *clinks* to all.

Violent Rhetoric
Aug 5, 2011 - 9:29am

The jobs situation looks

The jobs situation looks great!


​The BLS

Aug 5, 2011 - 9:30am

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Aug 5, 2011 - 9:31am

Looked in the "turdism's"

Looked in the "turdism's" glossary but no ref to The Shill and The Coug !

can anyone give a Brit a clue?


Aug 5, 2011 - 9:33am

G'mrng TF

I'm just going to carry this over from the last thread.....FUEE!!!

Maybe a FUBM is underway today after all. We can only hope to see that trend emerge soon.

Aug 5, 2011 - 9:42am

Ok, everything is fine now...yeah, whatever.

Better than expected jobs number gives rise to another silly ramp job in stocks. What changed in the last 24 hrs? Is everything all better now? Don't think so. What happens over the weekend? What happens if these gains don't hold and everyone that took a swing at this market on the open gets burnt for the umpteenth time? This is pure silliness...

Aug 5, 2011 - 9:44am

Is it just me

I have a feeling that there is a "Lehman moment" close at hand. Dow shouldn't have gone down 500 points yesterday considering the reason given for the pullback. Wonder how much it will go down when something seriously serious happens. Fer god's sake, the PM of Spain postponed his vacation to deal with debt matters. Can't get more grim than that. If I owned equities, I'd be selling any rally.

Urban Romanblackshirtuk
Aug 5, 2011 - 9:49am

Re: Looked in the "turdism's"

I think these are Turd's pet names for a couple of the CNBC morning hosts.

I don't really know myself, as I haven't watched it since Mark Haines (RIP) was hosting it.

Aug 5, 2011 - 9:53am

Tulsa ?

Dare we say, "DEAD CAT BOUNCE" ? Back me up with some graphics ! Monedas 2011 Compassion and humour do mix....just not on my posts !

Aug 5, 2011 - 9:58am


Good stuff Turd, thanks a bunch. SW

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/21

10/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
10/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
10/24 10:00 ET New home sales
10/25 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

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