Overnight and Tomorrow

Thu, Aug 4, 2011 - 3:40pm

It's 3:20 and, as I type, the Dow is down 392. It'll probably get worse into the close and folks who were trying to hold on, hoping for a late-day comeback, give up and sell.

Into tomorrow, we are about to discover the degree to which gold, and to some extent silver, are now regarded as a safe haven currency instead of a commodity. If an even steeper, liquidating plunge develops, you'll know it's the latter. I don't expect that, though. The last three years have opened the eyes of millions to the fallacy of keynesianism and unlimited fiat money. Therefore, I'm looking to BTFD.

Before we do, we must take a moment and grudgingly admire the handiwork of The Forces of Darkness. Undoubtedly, the selloff in silver began as a long liquidation but, just as assuredly, it was helped along by The Wicked Witch and her minions.

My biggest concern going forward is that a drop of this magnitude raises the specter of a margin hike. It shouldn't be necessary because today's drop was not larger, on a percentage basis, than the drops back in May. Don't be surprised, however, if the crooked C/C/C uses this occasion to raise them anyway. In the end, though, total silver open interest is still 25% less than late April so it's going to be very hard to get the strong hands that bought near 34 and 35 to run away. Everyone that bought in the past week or so probably got blown out today already so, chances are, further declines will be met with more buying than selling.

With that in mind, where should one attempt to BTFD, if so inclined. To me, the levels are quite clear. Take a look at the charts below:

For now, I'm just sitting on all of the cash I am grateful I raised yesterday. After I post this thread, I'm going to call Lind and put a couple of "stink bids" in, hoping to get filled on any overnight selloff toward 1635 and/or 38.

That's it for now. Keep checking back for more updates. Turd out.

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Aug 4, 2011 - 3:44pm

Thanks Turd!

You are the man!! I need to start acting more and not waiting, but I'm still happy having bought with all the spare cash I could muster up at $950 gold and $17 silver respectively.

Aug 4, 2011 - 3:45pm

I dont understand..

Can someone explain exactly why the $USD is going up?? Deflationary period before QE3?

Aug 4, 2011 - 3:45pm

Standing by to stand by.

Standing by to stand by.

Aug 4, 2011 - 3:46pm

yer the best

Turd. I enjoy and appreciate this place.

Aug 4, 2011 - 3:49pm

agree with your comments 100%- Turd

interesting times

Might see some value in mining stocks: many say they have been looking cheap lately. Now they might be a give away.

Aug 4, 2011 - 3:49pm

Thank you Turd

DOW - 481 calling -500...

Aug 4, 2011 - 3:50pm

And this is VERY important

And What Will Soon Be The Scariest Chart: Presenting Record Low Mutual Fund Cash Levels
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/04/2011 15:45 -0400

Here is a chart of what could well be the biggest concern for the market, and one we have been highlights for a long time: mutual fund cash levels, which as ICI indicates were 3.4% in June, is the lowest ever. A 4% drop in the absolute value of mutual fund investments, effectively wipes out the capital buffer of most. Enter liquidations.

Aug 4, 2011 - 3:51pm

Turd DumDum?

We'll see. I just put in an order to buy the Oct 1650 calls overnight if they reach 42.

Aug 4, 2011 - 3:53pm

Turd DumDum II?

I did NOT put in any silver orders. Premiums way too high given the inherent risk of a margin hike.

Aug 4, 2011 - 3:55pm

Yen save?

It appears the Yen had it's wings clipped , for the moment. All those treasuries being repatriated into Yen will pressure Yen higher. This was a concerted effort to suppress that rise. ¥ gap down. $gap up. Market down. Bonds run. Created deflationary episode finally materializes. Window opens for more QE from the more ideal lower starting point. The question is indeed.......will the metals continue to decline this time? Gold as per recent norm has suffered less. It just reinforces for me the fact that the EE want the Silver trade/Rise to stop. Silver is their Achilles Heel. Continue to buy physical Silver. Encourage others to do the same.

Aug 4, 2011 - 3:56pm


38.25 / 1635

Low Blow - Score One For The Bears...

Aug 4, 2011 - 3:56pm



Aug 4, 2011 - 4:00pm


Looks like another sleepless night for me lol :)

Friday will just be sick... Europe is already bleeding..

Aug 4, 2011 - 4:03pm

Last Thread Carry over...

pls help me understand...<scratching head>

Isn't 1650 -->1500 ish still a very good # considering the markets are hemmoraging? I am so thrilled to have the above numbers. Note: I am not a trader. Turd, I know we have some more bearing down on us, you've said its coming, thanks so much for your presence here today. Man, you are the best. Thanks for ALWAYS looking out for us. What we've done to deserve your generosity is God's secret :)

I am still thrilled to have gold/silver on my side.

Am I missin' it all? Should I be in mass panic? I'm asking sincerely.

Aug 4, 2011 - 4:04pm


Shill call -500

Dow 11,384 -512 -4.31% ( official )
Aug 4, 2011 - 4:05pm

ZH must be getting SLAMED!

ZH must be getting SLAMED!

Aug 4, 2011 - 4:08pm

So how about crude?

Asked about crude in the other topic, but it'll probably get eaten in the update, so, anyone got a plan for crude?

With the way its streaming down today, I fear support at around 84-85.40 is perhaps not even enough anymore to keep it floating; today's drop was of course facilitated by the USD strength, fears of an economy slowdown, general equity selling, margin calls etc. But I doubt crude can go much lower than it already is. If we're seeing a repeat of May, then tomorrow will be a day of wild volatility, but crude will come to a halt more or less. If so, and if the markets in general support a reversal (USD showing weakness again, equities not plunging similar to today's) I'm willing to dip some into crude. If tomorrow is another down movement like today...heck I don't know what to do.

Aug 4, 2011 - 4:09pm

Last thread carry over part deaux

Thank you Marblesonac!

But HOW did they do it?? The media had done a fine job of priming the pump with fear and double dip yak yak, etc, but the actual event was accomplished how? Naked shorting? It had to take a HUGE amount of financial fire power to accomplish this did it not?

Aug 4, 2011 - 4:10pm

and the looser is...3...2...1... silver

and the looser is...3...2...1... silver

Aug 4, 2011 - 4:10pm


Buying this dip can be hazardous to your health. I've nibbled today.....but this is a VERY dangerous situation. Watch for the signal. It will be an announcement of a global intervention......probably Trichet will announce a an emergency rate decrease......but the signal will be there......then buy your favs miners they will give you the leveraged move.....GPL hopefully tags 3 area in AM etc...........EXK SSRI ANV oooooobaby

Aug 4, 2011 - 4:11pm

I'm wondering ...

If there will be some kind of central bank intervention in Europe tomorow before market opens in Europe and London to avoid market calls and things getting worse. I'm also wondering if Asia will be buying the dips on Gold in Silver. Liquidity is drying up and deflation feels will settle in even more with any GDP growth remaining being revised downwards.

Aug 4, 2011 - 4:15pm

It would not surprise me

If the dow/gold ratio actually IMPROVED in favor of gold today. If it did, that should tell you all you need to know about gold as a safe haven.

Aug 4, 2011 - 4:15pm
exiledbear unky
Aug 4, 2011 - 4:16pm


LOL. I'd buy the hogs, sugar, cotton and lumber before I'd buy any of that other stuff that was green.

Aug 4, 2011 - 4:18pm

TF's right about tomorrow

Were at the cusp of gold breaking out of the MSM/general public shadows and into the mainstream thought process with all of these currency fluctuations taking place.

I think whatever is about to happen soon in gold will make it very obvious to the general public that something is up and very wrong. Would that be the awareness phase or the beginning of the mania? I think were in between and about to find out soon enough. Tonight into tomorrow???

At this point, I'm going to be pretty much stick to the computer and watch charts the rest of the evening more or less.

Damn, this like a spectator sport.

Aug 4, 2011 - 4:20pm

Looking at the % change in DIA and GLD today

DIA: ~-2%

GLD: ~-.5%

Ratio of change DIA/GLD: 4, in favor of GLD.

Swift Boat Vet
Aug 4, 2011 - 4:26pm

Break time & Hey Eric

Just a check-in during 'coffee break' from chicken coop building. Now must contemplate. Buy 100% of monthly allotment today or tomorrow? Maybe 50%/50% ? Will check back in later. Sure hope no Turdski was badly injured today. Phyzz guy here, so no probs.

Hey Eric (Original) congrats on the swap yesterday, but I'm still holding out for under 30 to 1 ratio to begin my swapping.

Aug 4, 2011 - 4:27pm

Cherish your silver !

Sorry, but since i think its very important for all to have some historical perspective and physical silver and gold now that the SHTF here is a repost from last tread in case you missed it.:

Silver wages of unskilled laborers in Europe and Asia, 1500-1849 (grams of silver per day)

1500-49 1550-99 1600-49 1650-99 1700-49 1750-99 1800-49
Northwestern Europe
London 3.2 4.6 7.1 9.7 10.5 11.5 17.7
Southern England 2.5 3.4 4.1 5.6 7.0 8.3 14.6
Amsterdam 3.1 4.7 7.2 8.5 8.9 9.2 9.2
Antwerp 3.0 5.9 7.6 7.1 6.9 6.9 7.7
Paris 2.8 5.5 6.6 6.9 5.1 5.2 9.9
Southern Europe
Barcelona 4.7 5.3 6.2 7.0 5.4 6.0 --
Valencia 4.2 6.6 8.8 6.9 5.7 5.1 --
Madrid -- 6.3 8.0 -- 5.1 5.3 8.0
Milan -- -- 5.9 4.1 3.2 2.9 3.1
Florence 2.9 3.8 4.7 -- -- -- --
Naples 3.3 3.5 5.3 4.8 4.8 3.8 3.8
Central & eastern Europe
Gdansk 2.1 2.1 3.8 4.3 3.8 3.7 4.8
Warsaw -- 2.5 3.2 2.7 1.9 3.4 4.9
Krakow 1.9 2.9 3.4 2.9 2.2 2.9 2.4
Vienna 2.7 2.6 4.4 3.5 3.2 3.0 2.1
Leipzig -- 1.9 3.5 3.9 3.7 3.1 4.4
Augsburg 2.1 3.1 4.0 4.7 4.2 4.3 --
Ottoman empire
Istanbul 3.3 3.3 3.9 4.0 3.5 3.8 5.5
Northern & western -- 0.7 1.1 1.4 -- -- 1.8
Southern -- -- 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.2 --
Yangzi delta -- 1.5 1.5 -- -- 1.7 1.7

Source: Derived from Allen (2001: 416) and Broadberry and Gupta (2005). Additional data for Barcelona from Feliu (1991: 107-108) and for Istanbul from Özmucur and Pamuk (2002: 301).

Aug 4, 2011 - 4:28pm

What a day!

YEAH, I've notice that Zerohedge has had some issues today, but so did my crummy little trading platform. It completely locked up on me 15 minutes before the close and completely shut me out of all my accounts. Fortunately, I was able to under the wire get my BofA preferred shares sold that I had inherited in a ML account. They were bought in 2009 into the account of an unconscious woman who was several days in hopsice by her ML broker for $3 and some change per share.

I did not sell for what I was hoping, but under the circumstances it was an OK price still near 500% profit, leaving me with cash to go into tomorrow. Guess I shouldn't be too pissed at that broker even though I am convince he had not discussed the purchase with the dying woman. Should have sold a while ago, but kinda forgot I had it or I would have since I very much dislike BofA. I had been waiting til after it paid, but after a day like today who cares.

The only issue I have been noticing with this site is that I am having some difficulty during sign on, although that may be me. I am now practicing how slow I can type my password.

imacman TF
Aug 4, 2011 - 4:31pm


We'll see. I just put in an order to buy the Oct 1650 calls overnight if they reach 42.

Turd I am a new trader just watching and learning. Could you explain the above trade.




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