Opportunity Knocks

Thu, Aug 4, 2011 - 1:11pm

 I've been out all morning but watching events from my iphone. Yikes! I was afraid that the selling in everything else would eventually spill over into the PMs. Sure as heck it did! The question is...now what?

Though I'm confident that The Cartel has helped things along, the steep drop today is undoubtedly caused by the liquidation trade. With some global markets declaring a "holiday" and with equity markets sharply lower, even the strongest hands in gold are tempted to be the first to lock in gains. Once the selling starts, its accelerates and cascades and you get to where we are. No doubt many will declare "It's 2008 all over again" and "The gold bubble just popped". The answers are : NO, IT'S NOT and NO, GOLD IS NOT EVEN IN A BUBBLE.

That said, gold definitely reached the top trendline on this chart today and it is about to paint an Outside Reversal Day on the chart. This means we've probably made our short-term high. Probably.


I'm in a rush to get this posted so, instead of new charts, here are reprints of the charts I gave you late yesterday with projected support levels where you could do some dip buying, if so inclined.


As you know, silver blew clear through that first support level and traded as low as 39.18! I'd have expected the area around $39 to be the next support level. Let's see if it can rally into the close and make it back above the old bogey of 39.50. I have a last of 39.62 so it's going to be close.

Dec gold hit 1642.20, right in the middle of the support zone, before rebounding. I have a last of 1655. I would not be surprised to see gold break through that support if this global selling continues so, for now, I'm not buying. I'll wait to see if a dip develops back to near 1610. IF it does, I'll be all over it.

Lastly, this IS NOT 2008 all over again. Central Banks are ready and willing to flood cash to stave off a liquidity crisis. Gold IS NOT going back to 1200. Silver IS NOT going back to 20. Anyone that says so is a fool with an agenda.

More later. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


OC15 · Aug 4, 2011 - 1:14pm


Looks like the raid is on, grrrr

Joe Martins Ghost · Aug 4, 2011 - 1:14pm

Just another buying opportunity!

Stack 'em and pack 'em!!

indosil · Aug 4, 2011 - 1:16pm

Bulls Eye

great call turd...hats off to u

Paladex · Aug 4, 2011 - 1:16pm

Short term high has been

Short term high has been reached, eh? How long do you think it will be before the PMs regain the ground they've lost?

averagejoe · Aug 4, 2011 - 1:18pm

I had a bid in at 1640.55 and

I had a bid in at 1640.55 and avatrader has a low print of 1640.60. missed a good flip. Now not sure what to do. Turds revision has me canceling orders

ReachWest · Aug 4, 2011 - 1:18pm


Just went to my storage bay and moved the stacks aside to make room for more!

Paladex · Aug 4, 2011 - 1:18pm

Maybe two weeks...maybe

Maybe two weeks...maybe tomorrow. In this environment, it's impossible to say.

Be on the lookout for some heavy EE Globex selling today. They'll hope to generate some margin-related liquidation overnight and into tomorrow.

Tesla · Aug 4, 2011 - 1:19pm

Here Comes QE(*WTFK)

Thanks for the update - I needed that!

SilverDog · Aug 4, 2011 - 1:19pm

That's quite a recovery

That's quite a recovery already.

stoneeh · Aug 4, 2011 - 1:20pm

Errr.. why the drama?

Errr.. why the drama everybody? Remember when we all argued about the 1550$ and 36$ levels a short while ago? The metals are behaving fabulously. If you're not in it with 10x leverage or so, no problem. You have made a lot of gains, appreciate them and make sure you are positioned for the next move higher.

- Markus

diegeiro · Aug 4, 2011 - 1:22pm


That raid was nice opportunity, and sort of made up for all the red we see in miners. Still have this sick feeling in the pit of my stomach though. Am having a hard time with all the red and everything in the world is so unsettling. Are we going to watch Europe implode now, if so, we are next.

Glad to have this site so I can watch and catch the dips while learning about what is going on in the world. Thanks Turd!

· Aug 4, 2011 - 1:23pm

If you look closely, you'll

If you look closely, you'll notice that today's drop stopped exactly at the middle blue line on Trader Dan's weekly chart. Hmmm.

Keep a close eye on that. A serious breach (down through 1635) later today or tomorrow, will also mean a break of that line, would lead me to think that gold may see a panic bottom back down between 1585 and 1600.

SilverTree · Aug 4, 2011 - 1:24pm
silverwood · Aug 4, 2011 - 1:24pm

I want to buy some of the Devil's metal cheap!

Turd, ya think we could get a whopping deflationary scare for QE3 intro? I would love to buy some of the Devil's metal in the low 30's. Just think Mr. O could come out and give us some more hopium speeches for his campaign, wouldn't that be entertaining!

"Lastly, this IS NOT 2008 all over again. Central Banks are ready and willing to flood cash to stave off a liquidity crisis. Gold IS NOT going back to 1200. Silver IS NOT going back to 20. Anyone that says so is a fool with an agenda."

indosil · Aug 4, 2011 - 1:24pm

NFP Data

@ Turd i guess there will be some more correction tmrw when the NFP data is released..the projected difference is massive...althogh hogwash..just an excuse for another sellofff??

Jordski · Aug 4, 2011 - 1:26pm

The raid that never was

After reading that I closed my short positions and went long, moment later, this - WTF - does no one else see that seemingly no one knows what the PM's will do, I am long now still and just gonna leave it, does someone know if/ when/ how much this shit is still gonna go down by?

I'm gonna start a blog, "on the fence"

ClinkinKY · Aug 4, 2011 - 1:27pm

Sorry for a "noob" question but

What does it mean to "have a last of $39.62" regarding Turd's post?

· Aug 4, 2011 - 1:28pm

Another thing to think about

This kind of intraday volatility may be just the excuse the C/C/C needs for another margin hike. Just sayin.

SilverWealth · Aug 4, 2011 - 1:28pm

Granny and Gold

Granny just sold the PHYS she bought on sale this morning. She would have liked to have held it longer and obsessed over price this and price that and target this and target that, but she saw the spike and she cashed out for lemonade money. The kids on the corner are making it fresh today and they bribed the local thug police so they could sell it thru the weekend without a SWAT bust coming down on them.

ClinkinKY · Aug 4, 2011 - 1:28pm

Current price

That what the last trade/current price was as I typed.

jlee2027 · Aug 4, 2011 - 1:30pm

Gold is a rock

Staying well over 1650 here.

Tyler · Aug 4, 2011 - 1:30pm


anyone else having problems with zh today?

Shill · Aug 4, 2011 - 1:30pm


This was some serious short covering for the next leg up. Not sticking according to my charts.. No fear..bring it on.

ewc58 · Aug 4, 2011 - 1:31pm

Turd said

"Keep a close eye on that. A serious breach (down through 1635) later today or tomorrow, will also mean a break of that line, would lead me to think that gold may see a panic bottom back down between 1585 and 1600."

Especially with GATA and all the PM Big Guns meeting in London, ya think they might want to push gold off a cliff? Jamie and Blythe would love to spoil that party.

diegeiro · Aug 4, 2011 - 1:34pm

if metals go down again GREAT

Another buying opportunity. And the way I look at it, if they continue down, u can't possibly lose more than u would by staying in stocks, while the long term upside is much much higher.

ClinkinKY · Aug 4, 2011 - 1:35pm

Thanks Turd

Even during a "whirlwind" of activity you take the time to enlighten a newbie. Thanks for ALL you do.

Titus Andronicus · Aug 4, 2011 - 1:36pm

Gold Comex pit close is down only $7 (-0.4%).

Might want to keep that in mind. Gold did not (yet) go down very much.

pbreed Tyler · Aug 4, 2011 - 1:37pm

ZH seems dead to me....

ZH is doa on my machine.

It was ok earlier.

What news doesn't the EE want you to see?

SilverWealth · Aug 4, 2011 - 1:38pm


Question for Turd. Norcini has his all important lines but did Norcini buy anything when those lines had been violated and Gold was in summer doledrums down at 1470? I think a coming 'violation' will be a buy signal and not a sell signal. The trick will be to buy in increments and not try to game it in my opinion. 

Do people remember how they felt at the end of June and how certain they were that Gold was going down big then with the miners. Norcinni was intimating 1425 then when Gold had already sold off 100 points. I don't understand it. I know its trader talk and timers talk and such but it gets me scratching my head. 

Selling strength and buying weakness in the bull continues to be best risk/reward. If one is gaming 'breakouts' or fearing 'breakdowns' how then can one ever position themselves to trade this volatility? I guess that is for the real experts. Thats not me and this is just my opinion of course.

tripping donk · Aug 4, 2011 - 1:38pm

Opportunity to buy physicsl

First post ... Long time reader ... Novice trader ... Physical holder Use this opportunity to stack up physical - all this short term noise and volatility does not affect your physical Good luck out there

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