The Great Raid That Wasn't

Thu, Aug 4, 2011 - 10:05am

The Turd doesn't like being wrong. However, in this case, I don't mind so much.

Not sure what to make of this, though. Yesterday had all the markings of an impending Cartel raid. As we now know, it didn't happen. Why? That is the question of the day.

1) Are they saving dry powder for Friday?

2) Are they simply being overwhelmed by the overall demand and do not wish to get in the way?

3) Are they sucking in as many new longs as possible so that they can pull a "Sunday Night Massacre" in gold later this month?

I think it's a combination of 1 and 2 but I'm not foolish enough to rule out #3. All I know is that I've got $1683 in Dec gold right now and with the stock market in the shitcan again, it looks to go even higher today. IF we get a lousy BLSBS number tomorrow, gold will charge straight through $1700 and, beyond there, there be dragons.

Silver is trying to come along for the ride today. I have a last of 42.20 and it seems a bit stuck and unable to charge through the resistance of 42-42.50. However, if gold keeps slogging higher today, the strong hands that currently own silver may add to their positions and drive silver through 42.50 and on toward 43. At or near 43, silver looks like 45 is next.

So, here we are, another consequential day in the PM trade. I'm not looking to add anything today. I'm sitting tight and enjoying the theater while I wait for 8:30 EDT tomorrow and the monthly sob-fest of The Coug, The Shill and LIESman.

More later as conditions warrant. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Aug 4, 2011 - 10:36am

The internet is amazing!

Tuesday evening SGS dropped a hint on his blog that Tinka's drill (TKRFF--a silver miner) results were looking positive. I have been trading Tinka with a bit of success, so I was curious. Wednesday morning its price spiked from .50 up to .58 per share--a 16% gain in 3 hours. today is it back down to .51, about where it started. Was all this due to one man's blog? If you look at the user map on his page, you will see little lights all over the world. Yes, I do think the "Cramer Effect" is migrating to anyone's blog where there is a following. And you don't have to have a national TV show. You just open your very own blog over at google like Turd did (I am not advocating a pump 'n dump scheme) and the world is open to you, if you have something worth saying.

Bro D
Aug 4, 2011 - 10:36am

Right on, Turd!  Avoiding a

Right on, Turd! Avoiding a sudden attack like May Day is essential in this market.

Aug 4, 2011 - 10:38am

thinking of some UNG

hit 52 week low today? Anyone in this or thinking about the nat gas play? Never traded nat gas before

Tom L
Aug 4, 2011 - 10:38am

One Question

Is Nadler still bearish?


Aug 4, 2011 - 10:38am

Peter represents the Bulls

Video unavailable
Tom L
Aug 4, 2011 - 10:39am

The Judge using the Bully Pulpit

From inside EE central no less:

Judge Nap is a great man of conscience.


Economical Disaster
Aug 4, 2011 - 10:40am

I mentioned this. YESTERDAY

At Some Point.....VERY SOON

Submitted by Economical Disaster on August 3, 2011 - 4:46pm. Hat Tip! 10

the cabel will surprise us all and let it all go. GOLD and SILVER will explode to the upside, they will throw in the towel and head for the hills. It will be survival of the fittest.

Aug 4, 2011 - 10:40am


IMPORTANT- I need price of gold at 7:00 pm and 11:00 pm last night...can't find it. Thanks! PLEASE HELP

Tom L
Aug 4, 2011 - 10:41am


It was obvious on this break of $10.10 this morning that it would drop to $9.62 which was an important Fib retracement level. I jumped the gun on my buy today, should have waited until the blood truly ran in the streets. Dammit.


Tom L
Aug 4, 2011 - 10:42am

Double Post


Aug 4, 2011 - 10:43am

ZH back up

Scroll the latest headlines.....yikes!

Aug 4, 2011 - 10:43am

Ready for FUBM

They can Raid all they want - BRING IT ON, some Central Bank would come in and push it up in a heart beat! It won't stay down for long.... noticed the half life of each dip in the past weeks!

Aug 4, 2011 - 10:43am

"Beyond there [1700], there be dragons."

Well put, TF!!!

I'll go one step further. With 1680 as the top of the current channel for today, we already entered the unknown realm where dragons lurk during the few minutes spent above 1680. Dragons are scary creatures and I was scared enough that even though the tick chart on Netdania showed a near-perfect double top around 1681.80 -- a likely high for the day and/or for the next week or so -- I just couldn't bail as I normally would.

Strange feelings here: watching the next interim high confirm that the double top was playing its role didn't bother me and even now as gold trades a few dollars lower, I'm not kicking myself for failing to jump out at the peak. Maybe I've been spooked by dragons. Or maybe I just didn't want the stress of deciding when to jump back into UGL. With this odd experience behind me, I'm not sure whether a spike to 1690 this afternoon or beyond 1700 tomorrow would prompt me to bail. If it does, the next buy will be stackable, not paper.

Big thanks to TF for his all his insight!


Aug 4, 2011 - 10:45am

false alert on the raid.

false alert on the raid. buying stepped right up.

Aug 4, 2011 - 10:45am

Gold / Silver Miners

Forgot to ask: Can anyone provide a rational explanation as to why the miners are getting hammered while bullion prices are rising? What's this ratio trade I some times read about? Grateful to anyone who can provide some clarity. Thx.

Aug 4, 2011 - 10:49am

DPH check end of last thread

for some interesting historical background to the Global Asset Strippers and how they got where they are today. Enjoy.

joe rocker
Aug 4, 2011 - 10:49am

Zero Hedge stories...blank page?

Anyone else getting this? Click a story and get a blank page back.

This one:

ES Plummets To Fresh 2011 Low

and this:


gold bug-ger since 2001
Aug 4, 2011 - 10:52am


Seasonality for Nat Gas has a bottom at the end of August. With just about everything except gold and silver getting hammered at the moment I would be inclined to wait 3 weeks. Having said that, knowing that gold is going up and will continue to do so, why not trade what you know rather than take a chance on what you don't know ?

Aug 4, 2011 - 10:53am

sevin, funny you should

sevin, funny you should mention ung. I have some Jan12 calls for ung that are severely underwater and have been for several weeks but I know I have a bit of time there. ...A few minutes ago I was in my options account and my ung calls suddenly spiked from being severely underwater to several hundred dollars in the green ..and this spike on a day when ung hit that low. ...The spike only lasted a few seconds and I wouldn't have even had time to execute a sell. (not that I would have wanted to right now..but still) ...Anyway, I've seen this kind of action in my account a few times this week. At one point my miner calls spiked up over $1200.00 and then disappeared. Very suspicious but I don't know what to make of it.

Anyway.. back to your question. I am optimistic about ung/nat gas plays for the long term. I plan to buy shares in ung and a few others by this Fall.

Aug 4, 2011 - 10:53am

Regarding Turds #3--when is

Regarding Turds #3--when is the next time the markets will be closed--as far as EU or Asia is concerned? The next major holiday in the states is Labor Day--first Monday in September. Surely, the CCC will not wait until then!! Thoughts?

Aug 4, 2011 - 10:54am

During the last days a thought came into my mind

and i want to share it with you:

I'm often observing, that selling the Ag- & Au-prices down, does not take place, when the trading is thinnest. I often have been asking myself, why the raids are taking place when 200-1000 silver contracts for the most traded month in one minute are necessary - instead to become active during times, when 10 contracts would fish out 50 cent in the bids. This supression doesn't really make sense, since it is unnecessarily expensive.

And it also doesn't really make sense, since nobody needs to sit in front of the computer to manipulate the prices down. Algorithms do it and they could easily be programmed that way, to drive prices slowly down over hours, and not with this ridiculous huge hammer, everybody can see.

What i find interesting, that H. Clinton visited the Chinese for a secret dinner after - or shortly before, i don't remember anymore - the raise of the debt limit. Are there secret commitments made?

Here is my speculation:

Could it be, that these raids are simple "payments"? The US take the short position, while the Chinese are able to buy Silver and Gold at a discount without raising the prices?

Then it suddenly makes sense, that these raids are not done in the thinnest hours: the volume would be too less to be of any significance. But 100-1000 contracts in one minute. Several times a day. Almost every day. Over years. That makes for a nice profit and everyone involved is happy. Except the US-taxpayer - but on the other hand, he also seems to want that system, since he supports the US-regime.

Aug 4, 2011 - 10:56am

Santa Predicting 1650 back in 2008

Jim Sinclair on CNN Your Money

I don't remember anyone else posting this?

Santas website

Aug 4, 2011 - 10:56am


Went in short yesterday thinking the raid was happening - lost out big today....

Aug 4, 2011 - 10:57am


re: Raid On Silver Starting

Sorry if you've been asked this already... I'm not on that often... What charts do you use that show volume?

Thanks in advance... :)

paulindoon terri5125
Aug 4, 2011 - 10:58am

Au price @ 7:00 & 11:00 PM

Per Netdania setting "Instruments" as Spot Silver with 15 mins to be able to see yesterday:

@ 7:00 PM: Hi @ $41.59, L @ 41.55, C @ 41.56

@ 11:00 PM: Hi @ 41.86, L @ 41.77 C @ 41.85

Hope that helps

Aug 4, 2011 - 11:04am

Tom L

Thanks for your recommendations. Putting them on my reading list.

gold bug-ger since 2001
Aug 4, 2011 - 11:04am


Thinking a raid was coming, I have reduced my positions by 20%. I call that banking the profits of the last month. I also like to have some cash around when there is a raid to take advantage of it. But shorting a major bull market, don't think so. Why not short SPY or BKX at least they are heading that way? The trend is your friend !

Aug 4, 2011 - 11:08am

Told you the Italians won't go quietly

they're just trying to buy some time with these measures in the hope the spotlight and heat migrates to another smoking euorzone disaster area. H/t ZH:

The War Against The Rating Agencies Begins: Italy Prosecutor Seizes Moody's, S&P Documents

And so the war against the rating agencies is now official as a floundering Europe does anything in its power to scapegoat anyone and everyone, starting with its natural sworn enemy of course, the rating agencies. According to Reuters, "Italian prosecutors have seized documents at the offices of credit rating agencies Moody's and Standard & Poor's in a probe over Suspected "anomalous" Fluctuations in Italian share prices, a prosecutor said on Thursday." Ah yes, it is Moody's fault that Unicredit, Intesa, Fiat and pretty much all other Italian companies now close limit down at least once a day. Either way, this is sure to end well. We will bring you more as we see it.

Italian Treasury "Discovered" Larger Cash Pile Than Expected; Likely To Withdraw From More If Not All 2011 Bond Auctions

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/04/2011 09:51 -0400

And the news just gets uber-surreal. According to a Reuters report, the Italian Treasury has a "larger cash pile than generally perceived according to sources." As a reminder this is precisely the excuse that Italy used when it scrambled to cancel medium and long-term auctions for late August as was previously noted. Which can only mean one thing: in order to prevent more ongoing routs, Italy will likely now withdraw from all bond auctions for the "foreseeable future" in order to not give the market a chance to do some real price discovery. Sure enough, the subsequent Reuters headline says that the "Italian Treasury's cash pile is enough to last most of 2011." Odd that we predicted this, and the next steps, just this morning, when we said: "look for Spain to follow Italy in a self-imposed bond market exile." Translation: while Greece, Portugal and Ireland are unable to access capital markets, Italy, as we predicted, has just self-imposed a capital markets exile likely until the end of the year.

Aug 4, 2011 - 11:08am

Hoping for

A FUBM In miners.

stoneeh Jordski
Aug 4, 2011 - 11:09am

"Went in short yesterday

"Went in short yesterday thinking the raid was happening - lost out big today...."

There you go. Always good to gain a learning experience.

- Buy right and sit tight.

- Don't try to time a secular bull market.

- Never sell a secular bull market.

Try to daytrade and you'll join the other 90+ % of traders/investors whose short term losses pay the banksters' short term profits.

- Markus

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