The Great Raid That Wasn't

Thu, Aug 4, 2011 - 10:05am

The Turd doesn't like being wrong. However, in this case, I don't mind so much.

Not sure what to make of this, though. Yesterday had all the markings of an impending Cartel raid. As we now know, it didn't happen. Why? That is the question of the day.

1) Are they saving dry powder for Friday?

2) Are they simply being overwhelmed by the overall demand and do not wish to get in the way?

3) Are they sucking in as many new longs as possible so that they can pull a "Sunday Night Massacre" in gold later this month?

I think it's a combination of 1 and 2 but I'm not foolish enough to rule out #3. All I know is that I've got $1683 in Dec gold right now and with the stock market in the shitcan again, it looks to go even higher today. IF we get a lousy BLSBS number tomorrow, gold will charge straight through $1700 and, beyond there, there be dragons.

Silver is trying to come along for the ride today. I have a last of 42.20 and it seems a bit stuck and unable to charge through the resistance of 42-42.50. However, if gold keeps slogging higher today, the strong hands that currently own silver may add to their positions and drive silver through 42.50 and on toward 43. At or near 43, silver looks like 45 is next.

So, here we are, another consequential day in the PM trade. I'm not looking to add anything today. I'm sitting tight and enjoying the theater while I wait for 8:30 EDT tomorrow and the monthly sob-fest of The Coug, The Shill and LIESman.

More later as conditions warrant. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Aug 4, 2011 - 10:09am


Thanks TF. Exciting times these days to the upside for a change.

11,703 must have been some type of algo number as I see the Dow tested it again and it was "allowed" to break though to the next technical algo level.

It should accelerate a bit if that was the case. Dow11,5o5 is a wild guess on the next "bounce"

Aug 4, 2011 - 10:09am

Thanks Turd

Yeah, I thought I would be smart and exit the position yesterday.... for a lower entry point today...

oh well.

Cannot fight the momentum

Did you expect all the JPY stuff though, seriously???

Now it seems like everyone is jumping on the QE3 bandwagon, enough that it seems like it will be old news by the time it is announced next Tues or Wed.

All the best TF



Aug 4, 2011 - 10:10am

Crude question

Mr Turd, what is your outlook for crude ?

it's nearing the all time low of 89. will it be a good buy ?

Aug 4, 2011 - 10:11am

long bullion short miners

long bullion short miners still in force.

what exactly needs to happen - and is it likely to in this environment - to loose them?

Aug 4, 2011 - 10:12am

Good point, G

Good point, G.

So much crazy shit going on that Turd's crystal ball is getting murky. That said, I'm going to do everything I can to help us all avoid a repeat of May.

Aug 4, 2011 - 10:13am

Many thanks,

Turd! Rock on

Aug 4, 2011 - 10:13am

Support 88-90

There should still be stout support between 88 and 90 but, again, with all this crazy shit going on...

Northern Border
Aug 4, 2011 - 10:13am

Cramer says its "hard to buy physical gold"

On CNBS about 1/2 hour ago Cramer just said that its "hard to buy physical gold" !?!?!?! WTF? Are you kidding me ? Pick up the phone, give a card number, sign for a package of "real" money.

How hard is that ? Of course, he said "stick with GLD" HA ! Yeah right. I am in GLD with a ass load of OTM cheap puts.

Keep stacking !


Aug 4, 2011 - 10:14am

EE letting it ride

I think they may just let it ride and profit from it and try to take it back down again in a stunning fashion like last time.

Lets think like them. Normally summer is the doldrums historically for PM's. Well this is a curve ball that they will make a killing on the way up and on their attempt on the way down.

If I was them, I would do exactly the same thing. They have a lot of people on the sidelines after that May massacre. This would a great time for them to totally go the other way and judging by history (seasonality) they would have most people thinking the same thing so they could just dominate the market direction up and down during normally low volume or interest in the PM's.

Jim Sinclair is so smart the more and more you realize what he has been saying for so long about what we are witnessing these days.

Colonel Angus
Aug 4, 2011 - 10:14am

Turd Sandwich

Maybe the Silver Vigilantes are just sending Blythe a "Turd sandwich." Or a bacon, lettuce, and Turd. Something.

I'm just waiting for the CME to beat back at the metals Sunday afternoon. Expect that we'll see some margin hikes. And I think the desperation will drive prices higher. We're all guessing here...

I've been thinking. If you've ever seen the movie "V for Vendetta," we need to send out millions of yellow hats and all meet in front of the CME on November 5. Can somebody go to that next to last scene in the movie (where millions stand together near Parliament), take a screen capture, and Photoshop big yellow hats on everyone?

Subscribe or login to read all comments.


Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 8/5

8/5 9:45 ET Markit services PMI
8/5 10:00 ET ISM services PMI
8/6 10:00 ET Job Openings
8/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
8/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index

Key Economic Events Week of 7/29

7/30 8:30 ET Personal Inc/Spending & Core Inflation
7/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
7/31 8:15 ET ADP employment
7/31 2:00 pm ET FOMC Fedlines
7/31 2:30 pm ET CGP presser
8/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
8/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
8/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
8/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 7/22

7/23 10:00 ET Existing home sales
7/23 10:00 ET Richmond Fed Manu Idx
7/24 9:45 ET flash Markit PMIs
7/25 8:00 ET Count Draghi/ECB policy meeting
7/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
7/25 8:30 ET Wholesale Inventories
7/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP first guess

Key Economic Events Week of 7/15

7/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed Index
7/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Import Price Index
7/16 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
7/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
7/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
7/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
7/19 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 7/8

7/9 8:45 ET Fed Stress Conference, three Goon speeches
7/10 8:30 ET CGP Hump-Hawk prepared remarks
7/10 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk House
7/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
7/10 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/11 8:30 ET CPI
7/11 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk Senate
7/11 12:30 ET Goon Williams
7/12 8:30 ET PPI

Key Economic Events Week of 7/1

7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
7/2 6:35 ET Goon Williams
7/3 8:15 ET ADP June employment
7/3 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
7/3 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
7/3 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
7/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
7/4 US Market Holiday
7/5 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 6/24

6/25 10:00 ET New Home Sales
6/25 1:00 pm ET Chief Goon Powell
6/25 5:30 pm ET Goon Bullard
6/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
6/27 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/28 8:30 ET Personal Income and Consumer Spending
6/28 8:30 ET Core Inflation
6/28 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 6/17

6/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
6/19 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/19 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
6/21 9:45 ET Markit flash June PMIs

Recent Comments