The Great Raid That Wasn't

Thu, Aug 4, 2011 - 10:05am

The Turd doesn't like being wrong. However, in this case, I don't mind so much.

Not sure what to make of this, though. Yesterday had all the markings of an impending Cartel raid. As we now know, it didn't happen. Why? That is the question of the day.

1) Are they saving dry powder for Friday?

2) Are they simply being overwhelmed by the overall demand and do not wish to get in the way?

3) Are they sucking in as many new longs as possible so that they can pull a "Sunday Night Massacre" in gold later this month?

I think it's a combination of 1 and 2 but I'm not foolish enough to rule out #3. All I know is that I've got $1683 in Dec gold right now and with the stock market in the shitcan again, it looks to go even higher today. IF we get a lousy BLSBS number tomorrow, gold will charge straight through $1700 and, beyond there, there be dragons.

Silver is trying to come along for the ride today. I have a last of 42.20 and it seems a bit stuck and unable to charge through the resistance of 42-42.50. However, if gold keeps slogging higher today, the strong hands that currently own silver may add to their positions and drive silver through 42.50 and on toward 43. At or near 43, silver looks like 45 is next.

So, here we are, another consequential day in the PM trade. I'm not looking to add anything today. I'm sitting tight and enjoying the theater while I wait for 8:30 EDT tomorrow and the monthly sob-fest of The Coug, The Shill and LIESman.

More later as conditions warrant. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Aug 4, 2011 - 10:09am


Thanks TF. Exciting times these days to the upside for a change.

11,703 must have been some type of algo number as I see the Dow tested it again and it was "allowed" to break though to the next technical algo level.

It should accelerate a bit if that was the case. Dow11,5o5 is a wild guess on the next "bounce"

Aug 4, 2011 - 10:09am

Thanks Turd

Yeah, I thought I would be smart and exit the position yesterday.... for a lower entry point today...

oh well.

Cannot fight the momentum

Did you expect all the JPY stuff though, seriously???

Now it seems like everyone is jumping on the QE3 bandwagon, enough that it seems like it will be old news by the time it is announced next Tues or Wed.

All the best TF



Aug 4, 2011 - 10:10am

Crude question

Mr Turd, what is your outlook for crude ?

it's nearing the all time low of 89. will it be a good buy ?

Aug 4, 2011 - 10:11am

long bullion short miners

long bullion short miners still in force.

what exactly needs to happen - and is it likely to in this environment - to loose them?

Aug 4, 2011 - 10:12am

Good point, G

Good point, G.

So much crazy shit going on that Turd's crystal ball is getting murky. That said, I'm going to do everything I can to help us all avoid a repeat of May.

Aug 4, 2011 - 10:13am

Many thanks,

Turd! Rock on

Aug 4, 2011 - 10:13am

Support 88-90

There should still be stout support between 88 and 90 but, again, with all this crazy shit going on...

Northern Border
Aug 4, 2011 - 10:13am

Cramer says its "hard to buy physical gold"

On CNBS about 1/2 hour ago Cramer just said that its "hard to buy physical gold" !?!?!?! WTF? Are you kidding me ? Pick up the phone, give a card number, sign for a package of "real" money.

How hard is that ? Of course, he said "stick with GLD" HA ! Yeah right. I am in GLD with a ass load of OTM cheap puts.

Keep stacking !


Aug 4, 2011 - 10:14am

EE letting it ride

I think they may just let it ride and profit from it and try to take it back down again in a stunning fashion like last time.

Lets think like them. Normally summer is the doldrums historically for PM's. Well this is a curve ball that they will make a killing on the way up and on their attempt on the way down.

If I was them, I would do exactly the same thing. They have a lot of people on the sidelines after that May massacre. This would a great time for them to totally go the other way and judging by history (seasonality) they would have most people thinking the same thing so they could just dominate the market direction up and down during normally low volume or interest in the PM's.

Jim Sinclair is so smart the more and more you realize what he has been saying for so long about what we are witnessing these days.

Colonel Angus
Aug 4, 2011 - 10:14am

Turd Sandwich

Maybe the Silver Vigilantes are just sending Blythe a "Turd sandwich." Or a bacon, lettuce, and Turd. Something.

I'm just waiting for the CME to beat back at the metals Sunday afternoon. Expect that we'll see some margin hikes. And I think the desperation will drive prices higher. We're all guessing here...

I've been thinking. If you've ever seen the movie "V for Vendetta," we need to send out millions of yellow hats and all meet in front of the CME on November 5. Can somebody go to that next to last scene in the movie (where millions stand together near Parliament), take a screen capture, and Photoshop big yellow hats on everyone?

Aug 4, 2011 - 10:14am

ZH servers overloaded

I'm familiar with that. I just hope that it's accidental.

Aug 4, 2011 - 10:17am

It seems to me that there is

It seems to me that there is simply no way for them to stop this train with all the currency devaluation going on around the world right now. They will stand back and wait for it to relent before attempting a raid.

Remember, sane people stay away from paper. Buy physical ONLY, unless you just love gambling, especially at the Cheapo Casino:

Vegas Vacation 1997 - Cheapo Casino
Aug 4, 2011 - 10:18am

other trade for the day

i was with you turd. im looking at oil and a short dollar instead for the day. might be a bit of a headache trade to morrow but ts gone bizarro world again

Aug 4, 2011 - 10:20am

What's this "stock market" you speak of?

Is that a new game on the floor of the Bellagio? If you play it, does that mean you get free drinks and a slot in the buffet?

Aug 4, 2011 - 10:23am

I don't mind either, my GLD Aug 170 Call

got a double today. I cashed out leaving other ITM untouched.

Aug 4, 2011 - 10:23am



Violent Rhetoric
Aug 4, 2011 - 10:24am

Let's make a deal

I'll take door number three.

1) Are they saving dry powder for Friday?

2) Are they simply being overwhelmed by the overall demand and do not wish to get in the way?

3) Are they sucking in as many new longs as possible so that they can pull a "Sunday Night Massacre" in gold later this month?

Aug 4, 2011 - 10:24am

I think we will head thru

I think we will head thru $1700 and then get hit with a pretty good takedown all within the next couple of weeks. We will probably spend time building back up to get back thru to whatever high we had last but then at that point all bets will be off as to the highs in early Fall thru the end of the year. ...These thoughts are not arrived at by any expertise of my own.. ..but by reading EVERYbody here and out there, researching into the wee hours, and I have to say that Morris Hubbartt (recommended to me by Kumanari) making so much sense and these are pretty much his projections from article. I think that the next round of QE gets figured into all of this as well over the next few weeks.

I am trying to position to take advantage of a Fall rally. I have 10 august calls that I want to get out of profitably if I can.. but after that.. I am adding calls for early year expiry and trying to build those positions along with miner shares.

Aug 4, 2011 - 10:24am

Miners going down ... I'm

Miners going down ... I'm staying away from this right now.. Closed XAGUSD longs few hours ago.

Aug 4, 2011 - 10:24am

Here's a curve ball

IMF's LaGarde: Probe Into Abuse Of Authority 8/4/11

By Val Brickates Kennedy

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- A French court has ordered a probe into whether the new head of the International Monetary Fund, Christine Lagarde, abused her authority while serving as France's finance minister, according to the BBC. At issue is whether Lagarde used undue influence in handling a dispute between the former state-owned bank Credit Lyonnais and businessman Bernard Tapie, who had been a political supporter of French President Nicolas Sarkozy during his 2007 campaign. The BBC added that the investigation could take months or even years to complete.

Aug 4, 2011 - 10:25am


I'm not sure why people have been saying these last few days that silver is not keeping up with gold. The GSR has remained fairly steady at around 40. Is this simply because $50 silver is fresh in everyone's mind? It appears to me that silver's percentage gains are moving in step with gold.

ReachWest Northern Border
Aug 4, 2011 - 10:25am


I saw that Cramer piece too - either Cramer is just blind (too busy screaming and running from one TV studio to another) or he is in on the scam that is GLD.

How anyone who claims to know about PM's could recommend GLD is just nutso.

Keep stacking physical, indeed .. Cramer and his ilk can acquire all the paper GLD garbage.

Aug 4, 2011 - 10:26am

Rope in Gym Class

It makes me feel kinda funny, like when we used to climb the rope in gym class.

Aug 4, 2011 - 10:26am

Platinum and Palladium

Anyone (Turd or others) know why these PMs remain stuck in a rut? Are they being raided to try to suck wind out of gold and silver's sails? I sold some of my PMs to buy some platinum earlier in the year and am rather frustrated at how little movement there has been in platinum. Both of these markets seem to have solid fundamentals and the price SHOULD be rising.

Aug 4, 2011 - 10:26am

and here comes the RAID !!!!

and here comes the RAID !!!!

Aug 4, 2011 - 10:28am

3) Are they sucking in as

3) Are they sucking in as many new longs as possible so that they can pull a "Sunday Night Massacre" in gold later this month?

Open interest numbers would indicate we'd have a little further to go, because they have been contracting as of last week and are still not up to the peak of 1, 2 weeks ago. But this is secondary anyway. What is important, and what should be clear, is, and I have repeatedly stated this here, that EE wants you in gold. They do not want you in silver. 5 margin increases in silver and 1 margin decrease in gold is all you need to know. Open interest in silver still below the very lows of Turd's bottom in January. There is nothing else to tell, everyone should draw their own conclusions from here (and any serious investor should already have followed the same data and come to a conclusion and already put down their $$$).

- Markus

Aug 4, 2011 - 10:29am
Aug 4, 2011 - 10:30am

Pavlovs dog

@DarkPurpleHaze Thank you for the great podcast with Aldous Huxley. I am trying to overcome my conditioning as a sheep. I am going short silver at this point, securing my gains. This smells like Sunday night. Am I Pavlovs dog remembering May too much? I don't now but, I still got my physical silver .

Aug 4, 2011 - 10:30am

On Drudge Report now: Does that chart look familiar!!???

Turd, check it out!

Gold To Hit 2000 Before Year End

Not sure if I saw that chart on here or ZH first, but that chart has gone world-wide now!

Eman Laer
Aug 4, 2011 - 10:33am

Apmex has lowered premiums

They usually do this when the price spikes higher. At the moment 90% is 30 cents below spot. SAEs are $3.29 over spot.

I'm not pimpin' Apmex necessarily, that's just the company I use. I imagine other dealers are also lowering premiums.

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