Objectives Met

195
Wed, Aug 3, 2011 - 2:41pm

As you know, I've been looking for a short-term peak in Dec gold, somewhere around 1680. I've also been looking for Sep silver to trade to a peak between 42 and 42.50. You may have noticed that this morning I simply split the difference and called for 42.25. I have intraday highs of $1675.90 in the December gold and $42.06 in the September silver. That's definitely close enough!

It looks to me like The Cartel has had enough for now. Combine that with an overall desire to lock in some gains and you've got a recipe for a small selloff. The Cartel my have tipped their hand a bit by whacking gold for $6 in one minute, just three minutes after the Comex close. It's hard to say for sure but history suggests that they will come back for more later this afternoon and overnight. The key now is to find points where we can buy back in for a short-term trade. The charts below should help.

If you're interested, here's my strategy:

Earlier today, I sold my spreads of Dec 1600 vs Dec 1700 calls. I rolled into new spreads of Dec 1700 vs Dec 1800. I'm still "long" but this freed up quite a bit of cash. I also changed around my silver spreads. You may recall that I was long the Dec 45s and short the Dec 50s against them. Again, to raise some trading cash, I sold my 45s and bought some 48s. So, my new spread is Dec 48 vs Dec 50.

Now, with my liquidity "issue" solved, I'm going to be looking to buy the dip I expect to see between now and this time tomorrow. Even though I expect a "modest positive surprise" in the BLSBS report Friday, I'd still like to do some buying before the report comes out, just in case I'm wrong and the report shows something like -50,000 payrolls! If I get the opportunity, I'd like to buy some October gold calls as well as some September silver. Keep an eye on the numbers I've given you and I'll let you know if I make any moves.

Have a great evening! TF

4:10 EDT UPDATE:

Just wanted to go ahead and get "on the record" here. I do not at all like the unusual action on the Globex this afternoon. The entire thing stinks of an upcoming raid, probably overnight and into tomorrow. Additionally, we know that The Cartel likes to raid the metals on the day before the BLSBS report, too. Combine that with this ugly, 5-minute chart and I think its safe to predict the raid I suspected earlier.

Let's watch and see. I've got a last on Dec gold at 1663. As mentioned above, a preliminary target for a selloff tonight and tomorrow would be 1635-45. Be prepared. TF

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  195 Comments

Fortinbras California Lawyer
Aug 3, 2011 - 6:23pm

@ CA Lawyer...

You don't want any part of that other than the "guaranteed money at ever decreasing rates with increasing headaches"....

I lived in Marin in 1999-2000 as a renter. There was a guy across the street from us that was a lawyer for Wells Fargo. For some reason, you remind me of him...

Just be patient.... you and I both know that the other shoe on the housing market is going to drop in the next 12 months or so and when it does, it's going to be a good time to start shifting asset classes for the next 30 years.

It will be good to be a land lord for the next stretch of decades as long as we don't go "Beyond Thunderdome."

I'm in Kabul and a bit tipsy (0252 am here) and just riding this out until it's time to buy the neighborhood.

Love your posts, keep 'em coming.

Dr G
Aug 3, 2011 - 6:37pm

For the kitty lovers

Sorry, off-topic, for the kitty lovers:

Fortinbras
Aug 3, 2011 - 6:39pm

@Fortinbras - Property Management Firm

Thanks for the info, and you bet, I will keep posting as much as I can.

My idea is not to actually own the properties, as I have done that in the past and I LOATHE the thought of being a landlord ever again. What I really want is to arbitrage the system.

I see it like this: Fed Govt has so screwed up the housing market, that the only way to really profit from it is to treat it like the essential that it is. Rental property serves a very useful, societal purpose. Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae have TONS of rental properties (or will have, once Congress allows banks to offload their non-performing loans and pass the losses to the taxpayers).

Like any good govt program <sarc on, of course>, Fannie or Freddie, or whatever behemoth emerges as the govt agency to administer the shift from ownership to a rental society, they will in all likelihood contract out the day to day property management of their portfolios. So, I want to bid on the contract, then hire some hourly workers to actually do the property management. I figure I can bid the contract to take advantage of the depressed economy and get hourly workers for not too much per hour. I mean, how hard could it be?

So, I bid something competitive, then pay workers to do the work, then profit on the difference.

There are barriers to entry in California. One must be a licensed real estate broker to be a property manager. Nowdays, many of the former boom-time realtor types have disappeared. So, I figure I can jump in and make a go of it for not too much effort. If I don't win a govt contract, so what? If I do, then it will be the gift that keeps on giving, as there is no end in sight to the real estate doldrums here in So Cal.

Anyhow, I will get myself educated on this, and report back.

Be careful!

end the fed already Nigel Black
Aug 3, 2011 - 6:46pm

and number 5....

and number 5 - the announcement that Jamie Dimon is to replace little Timmy at the Treasury.

gotta keep that revolving door spinning you know!

end the fed already Economical Disaster
Aug 3, 2011 - 6:59pm

Re: At some point.....

"the cabel will surprise us all and let it all go. GOLD and SILVER will explode to the upside, they will throw in the towel and head for the hills. It will be survival of the fittest. I just know it, I can feel it. I have never been wrong on my feelings."

yep, been there and dreamt that, more than once i might add too. i get strong gut feelings as well.

i see bankers getting hunted down and a zero tolerance by the people for those who steal (especially those stealing from the elderly). more and more are aware our "elected leaders" do not have their best interests in mind.

of course those on the dole of owebummer checks each month will be the last to convert and many will fall to theft crimes which will no longer be tolerated by the masses that have had enough.

Tesla
Aug 3, 2011 - 7:00pm

@Dr G

Are those Victory Meat Market kittens available fresh as well as frozen?

(just kidding!)

Blight Master
Aug 3, 2011 - 7:04pm

Jamie Dimon replacing Timmy

Jamie Dimon replacing Timmy would be hilarious. Sure a couple people would pull their hair out in rage but at this point I would just see it as humorous. I'm sure everyone in Washington would be secretly laughing their asses off behind closed doors as well. The public doesnt have a clue either way and it would be funny just to see if they could get away with it. Of course it would never happen because who the hell would want that job in the first place?

Trader
Aug 3, 2011 - 7:09pm

Bravo

Bravo Turd, very well played. I tip my hat to you.

Rui
Aug 3, 2011 - 7:15pm
SilverTree
Aug 3, 2011 - 7:41pm

oops

Sorry

¤
Aug 3, 2011 - 7:44pm

@Eric/ @CA


@Eric...Congrats on the two lovelies you picked up at the coin shop. I haven't been to one for years but I feel compelled to get to know the one's around me just in case.

I'm itching to buy some type of coinage right now but I just bought a car, my daughter starts college in 3 weeks and she also needs a car somewhere in between there. Priorities suck sometimes (lol)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

@CA...I hope I 'm really wrong and things don't get as twisted as I projected. It just seems like a drastic but workable framework. It would just require a really aggressive Fed. to control the housing situation just like the "asset purchases" by the Fed to buy our own Treasury debt. We currently own (idk how) about 70% of our own debt and were trying real hard to digitize and print enough to buy as much as possible so that we can pay ourselves back or to forgive the Treasury the debt as the Fed. is a unique entity who seems to think they can do such a grand accounting re-balancing. Thats how I see it.

So how does that tie in with the housing situation? The Fed has already effectively lowered the borrowing costs to enable housing to snap back but it hasn't. I see the Fed. doing whatever is necessary to control the housing market in a ultimate way with them as defacto owner of just about everything including the existing real estate portfolios of all the banks who had losses that had to sanitized from their books.

I don't want to repeat too much of what I wrote in your thread...https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forum/1480/show-me-note-litigation

I hope I'm terribly wrong and things don't get too warped or Centrally controlled. But how the hell could all of this documentation mess about real estate be so screwed up that alot of people don't know who they really owe or who really has clear title etc. to their property?

It seems like a perfect set up eventually for the Fed. or some other quasi govt. entity to take control of the housing problem (i.e. ownership of "all" properties in question...yikes).

How could documentation and paperwork get so screwed up when it has been so routine for so many decades? If the banks are not really sure they own the or hold the paper they have been collecting on then how could the Fed have bought their bad portfolios in the first place? All of that talk back then about all of the mortgage backed securities that the Fed. bought from the banks to get the "toxic" assets off of their books....I'm pretty sure if the Fed bought the MBS's then they own the land or at the very least they are the ultimate holder of all of that MB paper.

Sounds like a giant central wanna be landlord to me.

legerde
Aug 3, 2011 - 7:51pm

HR 2636 - ‘Neighborhood Preservation Act of 2011’

Text of the bill introduced: https://www.opencongress.org/bill/112-h2636/text

Sponsors

Gary Miller R-CA Spencer Bachus [R, AL-6] Barney Frank [D, MA-4] Carolyn McCarthy [D, NY-4]
¤
Aug 3, 2011 - 7:57pm

No news of this on MSM

Fukushima Radiation Highest Ever, Exceeding Capacity of Measuring Device ... Fuel Likely Leaking Out Of Containment Vessel Submitted by George Washington on 08/03/2011 14:58 -0400

Denver
Aug 3, 2011 - 7:58pm

HR 2636 - ‘Neighborhood Preservation Act of 2011’

And I'm betting the Banksters get to buy them back, with clean titles, for pennys on the dollar at the end of the leases.

mouser
Aug 3, 2011 - 8:02pm

Gold hanging in there

With Asia about to get rolling, gold at about 1660 US, but i suspect it will be the globex vs the ASIA buyers, who dont really mind when it gets beat down, as they like to accumulate on dips.

Silver holding strong, and all the naysayer who were waiting at 28$ back in JULY are going to be sadly disappointed. Silver going

to hit 50$ here this fall, but there will be some ups and downs, in fact i believe it may get even more volatile than we have seen of late. The US $ not sliding as quick as i had envisioned on the abysmal debt ceiling budget, which basically just kicked the can down the road, US govt thinks they can deal with the problems later again.

Back to spending more than they can afford, blowing up buildings in other countries and then rebuilding them, aaccomplishing nothing except to make the fat cat military suppliers rich. And then to add insult to injury , billions go missing in the movement of capital from the taxpayers of the US to countries they are blowing up and paying to rebuild.!!!

Nice work if you can get it.

NW VIEW California Lawyer
Aug 3, 2011 - 8:24pm

CALIFORNIA LAWYER RENTALS

As I have stated before, we started a property management division in our real estate office in Washington State. There are lots of laws and regulations covering property management but the real issue is the state takes 1.8% of the income from the management through the office. We have talked about how to obtain the HUD rental homes and we sell HUD houses. If the government really allows licensed companies to represent them and rent out these properties, we have concluded that they we strain out every possible cent form the ones actually doing the work but will give them lots of homes. It will not be worth it. We have found that it takes a full time real estate broker, great bookkeeping, a fixer-upper crew that is licensed, and a seven day a week person to make it flow smoothly. This is the wave of a great income. Most managers charge 8% of the monthly income and half the first month rent to set up the system. Agreements must be signed by the owners and the brokerage. If one is a starving real estate agent and wants to works almost everyday then start a management division in your office before all of them do and in time we will see " Discount Realty Management- we charge 4% and first month is free".

Dr G
Aug 3, 2011 - 8:25pm

What is a sizeable amount anyway?

Good question. I'd say as much as you can afford and safely store. When it comes to physical can you have too much?

Magpie legerde
Aug 3, 2011 - 8:31pm

"and for other purposes"

Love that they left the door open with that phrase. My mind is racing trying to imagine what the housing market will look like 5 years down the road. Nice way to pull all the excess inventory out of the marketplace for now. Question is: do they price the rents low enough to fill up all the excess inventory and drive down the rental prices for the rest of the market, or do they price at FMV and bite the bullet when the properties sit empty?

H.R.2636 - Neighborhood Preservation Act of 2011

To authorize depository institutions, depository institution holding companies, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac to lease foreclosed property held by such entities for up to 5 years, and for other purposes.

Endzeit DefiniteMaybe
Aug 3, 2011 - 8:35pm

Welkome to fascist Amerika.

Welkome to fascist Amerika. That is but example of many in which this once great "beacon on the hill" is turning into a third world fascist state.

Did i miss something? Has delinquency been erased? Can people leave their houses and windows open? Has the poisioning of the youth with drugs been stopped? Has unemployment vanished? Has the authoritarian principle of responsibility of politicians been established? Has the primacy of politics over the economy and banks been established?

No? Then you are not talking about a fascist-state. You are talking about PLUTOCRACY - the government of big money where politicians are supernumeraries in a show called "Democracy".

ps: "evil" Mussolini destroyed the Mafia - guess where they fled? Into the USA. :D Strange? Not really, if you look at Washington. Now guess, who made a deal with the Mafia and brought the Mafia back to Italy in 1945...

Time to wake up.

stoneeh
Aug 3, 2011 - 8:36pm

Why don't any interviewers

Why don't any interviewers ask Sprott why he doesn't break the COMEX? I don't get it. (Not that I would necessarly want that either, I got nothing against playing the paper game a little longer and convert the profits to physical)

- Markus

Pope Willie
Aug 3, 2011 - 8:37pm
¤
Aug 3, 2011 - 8:38pm

Live and Let Die

Paul McCartney & WINGS - Live And Let Die
Patrancus
Aug 3, 2011 - 8:47pm

US Default occurred several years ago

Lots of noise keeps the sheeple in the ether and oblivious to the fact that the US actually defaulted years ago, how is the value of your dollar holding up? nuff said. Spending and entitlement will always keep goober salivating for just one more cookie. Buy and hold, it will all make better sense when the home Depot is sold out of wheel barrows. Sprott and his good fortune has been endowed by his new world order, my good fortune was to dump his etf in the nic of time.

Turdle GG
Aug 3, 2011 - 8:48pm

Sprott

Why don't any interviewers ask Sprott why he is happy to sell his own PSLV shares at a 20% premium to NAV whilst he refuses to debunk the myth that PSLV's silver is somehow worth 20% above the spot price of silver?

FogHorn LegHorn Rui
Aug 3, 2011 - 8:48pm

@rui Jim Willie what a zinger

Hat tip rui. Thats an upside the "head smack" commentary! Anybody wants to know the " deal" with gold read J W.

Turdle GG
Aug 3, 2011 - 8:57pm

JPY gold

Hit a record high overnight. I think that makes it complete: gold now at or near record high in all major currencies.

Turdle GG
Aug 3, 2011 - 9:04pm

BIG MOVES

Looks like Japan might have just intervened . JPY going crazy. Gold and silver down sharp, then recovering.

Turdle GG
Aug 3, 2011 - 9:07pm

USD up 1.2% vs. JPY

This will be slightly positive for POSX, so might be an excuse for EE to start a raid on gold and silver

Tesla
Aug 3, 2011 - 9:11pm

Volume

Wow look at the volume spike on silver but gold especially!

That's HUGE and the best part is the buyers are soaking it all up =]

(Blythe's monkeys are really stepping on the gas!!!)

15 min gold netdania chart

Turdle GG
Aug 3, 2011 - 9:13pm

Big JPY moves - currency mkts very volatile

Silver hanging in there. Gold too. Big move by Japan - maybe coordinated with other CBs. ZH usually first to bring us the news, but nothing from them yet.

JPY now down 1.7% against USD.

S&P 500 futures like it - up 0.5%.

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Key Economic Events Week of 6/17

6/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
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6/4 All day Fed conference in Chicago
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Key Economic Events Week of 5/28

5/28 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
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Key Economic Events Week of 5/20

5/20 7:00 pm ET CGP speech
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Key Economic Events Week of 5/13

TWELVE Goon speeches through the week
5/14 8:30 ET Import Price Index
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5/17 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 5/6

5/9 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
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Key Economic Events Week of 4/29

4/29 8:30 ET Pers Inc, Cons Spend, Core Infl
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