Objectives Met

195
Wed, Aug 3, 2011 - 2:41pm

As you know, I've been looking for a short-term peak in Dec gold, somewhere around 1680. I've also been looking for Sep silver to trade to a peak between 42 and 42.50. You may have noticed that this morning I simply split the difference and called for 42.25. I have intraday highs of $1675.90 in the December gold and $42.06 in the September silver. That's definitely close enough!

It looks to me like The Cartel has had enough for now. Combine that with an overall desire to lock in some gains and you've got a recipe for a small selloff. The Cartel my have tipped their hand a bit by whacking gold for $6 in one minute, just three minutes after the Comex close. It's hard to say for sure but history suggests that they will come back for more later this afternoon and overnight. The key now is to find points where we can buy back in for a short-term trade. The charts below should help.

If you're interested, here's my strategy:

Earlier today, I sold my spreads of Dec 1600 vs Dec 1700 calls. I rolled into new spreads of Dec 1700 vs Dec 1800. I'm still "long" but this freed up quite a bit of cash. I also changed around my silver spreads. You may recall that I was long the Dec 45s and short the Dec 50s against them. Again, to raise some trading cash, I sold my 45s and bought some 48s. So, my new spread is Dec 48 vs Dec 50.

Now, with my liquidity "issue" solved, I'm going to be looking to buy the dip I expect to see between now and this time tomorrow. Even though I expect a "modest positive surprise" in the BLSBS report Friday, I'd still like to do some buying before the report comes out, just in case I'm wrong and the report shows something like -50,000 payrolls! If I get the opportunity, I'd like to buy some October gold calls as well as some September silver. Keep an eye on the numbers I've given you and I'll let you know if I make any moves.

Have a great evening! TF

4:10 EDT UPDATE:

Just wanted to go ahead and get "on the record" here. I do not at all like the unusual action on the Globex this afternoon. The entire thing stinks of an upcoming raid, probably overnight and into tomorrow. Additionally, we know that The Cartel likes to raid the metals on the day before the BLSBS report, too. Combine that with this ugly, 5-minute chart and I think its safe to predict the raid I suspected earlier.

Let's watch and see. I've got a last on Dec gold at 1663. As mentioned above, a preliminary target for a selloff tonight and tomorrow would be 1635-45. Be prepared. TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  195 Comments

Shill
Aug 3, 2011 - 3:17pm
bullwhip29
Aug 3, 2011 - 3:21pm

@ PandaLiberator

Re: Ramp up...

I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if there is a short term bounce in stocks. (in fact,we could see a frantic short covering rally into the close) It is also possible the stage is being set for something bigger (like we saw last Aug/Sept). I wouldn't go overboard with the shorts at this point. If my memory serves me correctly, the PM's did OK too following the launch of QE2 ;)

Shill
Aug 3, 2011 - 3:21pm
SilverTree
Aug 3, 2011 - 3:25pm

.

Blight Master
Aug 3, 2011 - 3:27pm

Insane to me

A lot of you guys know I'm younger than most members here, I'm pretty new to economics, investing, and wealth preservation. Got to say though theres nothing more exhilarating than making more fiat in one day than I make at my job in over a month just from saving my wealth in PM's. I guess I didnt really make any fiat because I havent sold, and dont really plan on selling, but calculating my PM wealth in fiat terms is breathtaking. My deepest thanks to all of you and Mr Turd Ferguson for keeping me in the game and doubling down after the May-day massacre. Theres no way I can thank all of you enough for providing all of the info I needed to navigate these waters. If you're ever down in Bama hit me up, I'll buy you a beer, or if things keep going the way they are I'll buy you a freaking house.

Cheers to the stackers of the world and all of the traders for providing us with such great TA, opinions, and ideas.

Tesla
Aug 3, 2011 - 3:34pm

Silver OI

Daily Settlements for Silver Futures (PRELIMINARY)

Trade Date: 08/03/2011

Month

Open

High

Low

Last

Change

Settle

Estimated

Volume

Prior Day

Open Interest

AUG 11

41.310

41.905

41.080

-

+1.666

41.747

23

25

SEP 11

40.870

42.060

40.575

-

+1.666

41.758

61,905

58,468

OCT 11

41.200

41.790

40.850

-

+1.669

41.772

18

6

DEC 11

40.825

42.075

40.625

-

+1.669

41.787

9,431

32,452

JAN 12

40.875

41.970

40.850

-

+1.671

41.790

36

138

MAR 12

40.795

41.970

40.795

-

+1.675

41.796

1,020

5,592

MAY 12

41.945

41.945

41.880A

-

+1.674

41.776

137

1,721

JLY 12

41.590

41.945B

41.590

-

+1.681

41.769

71

1,853

SEP 12

40.665

41.685

40.620

-

+1.681

41.743

24

291

DEC 12

41.095

41.760

40.720

-

+1.680

41.682

74

8,345

JAN 13

-

-

-

-

+1.680

41.658

-

1

MAR 13

-

-

-

-

+1.680

41.601

5

425

MAY 13

-

-

-

-

+1.680

41.547

-

-

JLY 13

-

-

-

-

+1.680

41.505

-

2,211

DEC 13

40.990

40.990

40.990

-

+1.680

41.412

5

6,803

JLY 14

40.500

40.500

40.500

-

+1.680

41.237

1

232

DEC 14

40.490

40.490

40.490

-

+1.678

41.137

2

1,181

JLY 15

-

-

-

-

+1.675

40.962

-

166

DEC 15

40.395

40.780

40.125A

-

+1.675

40.845

4

475

JLY 16

-

39.105B

-

-

+1.675

40.745

-

-

Total

72,756

120,385

Last Updated 08/03/2011 01:32 PM

Tesla
Aug 3, 2011 - 3:34pm

Gold OI

Daily Settlements for Gold Futures (PRELIMINARY)

Trade Date: 08/03/2011

Month

Open

High

Low

Last

Change

Settle

Estimated

Volume

Prior Day

Open Interest

AUG 11

1659.9

1672.3

1651.6

-

+21.5

1663.4

1,776

5,681

SEP 11

1661.7

1673.3

1652.4

-

+21.6

1663.9

4,793

9,122

OCT 11

1662.0

1675.3

1653.1

-

+21.8

1664.9

11,275

26,151

DEC 11

1662.5

1675.9

1654.4

1667.1

+21.8

1666.3

164,461

385,002

FEB 12

1663.7

1675.8

1656.9

-

+22.0

1667.9

2,550

12,753

APR 12

1663.7

1676.9

1658.0

-

+22.0

1669.5

1,004

6,303

JUN 12

1666.5

1679.7

1660.5

-

+22.1

1671.3

503

15,051

AUG 12

1678.0

1680.5

1675.1

-

+22.1

1673.2

166

5,521

OCT 12

-

1676.5B

-

-

+22.1

1675.3

127

4,161

DEC 12

1666.5

1685.9

1666.5

-

+22.2

1677.8

354

12,181

FEB 13

1675.2

1685.0

1675.2

-

+22.1

1679.8

28

1,558

APR 13

-

-

-

-

+22.1

1682.3

-

226

JUN 13

1683.9

1686.5

1683.9

-

+22.2

1685.2

82

11,474

DEC 13

-

1675.0B

-

-

+22.4

1696.9

37

12,610

JUN 14

-

-

-

-

+22.4

1711.1

50

3,598

DEC 14

-

-

-

-

+22.4

1729.1

25

9,748

JUN 15

1760.0

1760.0

1758.0A

-

+22.2

1751.2

26

4,269

DEC 15

1785.8

1785.8

1785.8

-

+21.6

1777.1

7

3,116

JUN 16

-

-

-

-

+21.1

1805.9

-

6

DEC 16

-

-

-

-

+20.6

1837.8

-

842

JUN 17

-

-

-

-

+20.6

1874.8

-

30

Total

187,264

529,403

Last Updated 08/03/2011 01:32 PM

ewc58
Aug 3, 2011 - 3:34pm

Way to stack Panda

Turd's goal has always been to do just that: to help educate and to lead to the Promised Land those with the good sense to listen and get aboard. It is just fantastic to hear of your results, your excitement is tangible. And contagious.

Roll Tide

Colonel Angus
Aug 3, 2011 - 3:41pm

PandaLiberator...

First, you should not just be liberating the pandas. I hope you have some maples, a kookaburra or two, and some eagles. And then the old junk silver...nice Morgans. Liberate it all!!!

As someone who is probably more toward the middle of the age range here, I'd say to get used to making more in metals than in the job. I'm a professor who makes an okay living, but I made more fiat on the physical silver and gold last year than my annual salary in FRNs. I sold half of the stack when silver hit 48, but I've been buying back like a madman. There are still a few deals to be had, but I've tried to be the one that has them. I'm hoping you do the same.

I'm glad to have found this community. I've only been able to convert one colleague. One particular business prof told me that "commodities are an illegitimate investment vehicle." Since my tripling up of my initial investment, we haven't discussed it. I'm glad to be the buffoon down the hall who knows nothing. But if I do know something, I'm expecting a little announcement from CME on silver margins in 3...2...1. Then we'll all be able to stack a little more PMs for the same price...hopefully. I'm worried that some of the sheep in the headlights might eventually smell the desperation. We'll see.

Shill
Aug 3, 2011 - 3:42pm

Raises Glass

Too Panda!

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