Objectives Met

Wed, Aug 3, 2011 - 2:41pm

As you know, I've been looking for a short-term peak in Dec gold, somewhere around 1680. I've also been looking for Sep silver to trade to a peak between 42 and 42.50. You may have noticed that this morning I simply split the difference and called for 42.25. I have intraday highs of $1675.90 in the December gold and $42.06 in the September silver. That's definitely close enough!

It looks to me like The Cartel has had enough for now. Combine that with an overall desire to lock in some gains and you've got a recipe for a small selloff. The Cartel my have tipped their hand a bit by whacking gold for $6 in one minute, just three minutes after the Comex close. It's hard to say for sure but history suggests that they will come back for more later this afternoon and overnight. The key now is to find points where we can buy back in for a short-term trade. The charts below should help.

If you're interested, here's my strategy:

Earlier today, I sold my spreads of Dec 1600 vs Dec 1700 calls. I rolled into new spreads of Dec 1700 vs Dec 1800. I'm still "long" but this freed up quite a bit of cash. I also changed around my silver spreads. You may recall that I was long the Dec 45s and short the Dec 50s against them. Again, to raise some trading cash, I sold my 45s and bought some 48s. So, my new spread is Dec 48 vs Dec 50.

Now, with my liquidity "issue" solved, I'm going to be looking to buy the dip I expect to see between now and this time tomorrow. Even though I expect a "modest positive surprise" in the BLSBS report Friday, I'd still like to do some buying before the report comes out, just in case I'm wrong and the report shows something like -50,000 payrolls! If I get the opportunity, I'd like to buy some October gold calls as well as some September silver. Keep an eye on the numbers I've given you and I'll let you know if I make any moves.

Have a great evening! TF


Just wanted to go ahead and get "on the record" here. I do not at all like the unusual action on the Globex this afternoon. The entire thing stinks of an upcoming raid, probably overnight and into tomorrow. Additionally, we know that The Cartel likes to raid the metals on the day before the BLSBS report, too. Combine that with this ugly, 5-minute chart and I think its safe to predict the raid I suspected earlier.

Let's watch and see. I've got a last on Dec gold at 1663. As mentioned above, a preliminary target for a selloff tonight and tomorrow would be 1635-45. Be prepared. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Aug 3, 2011 - 4:25pm

Silver hanging in there!

Silver hanging in there!

Aug 3, 2011 - 4:26pm

I look for a whack job here

I look for a whack job here on the metals, and rebuy tomorrow. They've got juice the dow here.

Double Bogey
Aug 3, 2011 - 4:29pm

Jamie Dimon the next Treasury Sec?

Please tell me I was hearing things when CNBS was talking about Dimon being a good candidate to replace Geithner as Treas. Sec.? Isn't the henhouse already empty?

Titus Andronicus
Aug 3, 2011 - 4:31pm

I guess dip-waiting traders will be lucky to see $1645

My guess is that gold demand is going to buy up any dip before we reach $1645 (Tuesday's pit-close price). I don't think it will drop lower.

How many are waiting for a pull back to get into the market? I think there are too many people around the world with very good reasons to buy gold. A lot of people would love to get in at Tuesday's price and I expect the demand to get stronger as we approach $1645. I'm thinking an dip will be bought strongly before we reach $1645.

Just my guess.

If we are fortunate enough to get $1646, I'm thinking maybe I'll add to my paper gold position.

Aug 3, 2011 - 4:33pm



Look at tonight's Globex chart pattern in AU and compare to yesterday's AG pattern...

identical initial high, then the subsequent selloffs to lower lows.

It has to be an algo sniffing for stops, but yesterday the Silver pattern broke when Asia came online.

Aug 3, 2011 - 4:35pm

Awesome, possum!

Do you feel the enveloping waves of admiration? Thanks, Turd.

Eric Original
Aug 3, 2011 - 4:35pm

I did the deal--was there ever any doubt?

Two Sovereigns (both Young Victoria's, my favorites) and an 1879-S $20 Gold Piece just found a new home! Here's an internet of pic of that variety of Double Eagle, though I must say mine is just a tad nicer.

Aug 3, 2011 - 4:36pm


I've sold my oct gold options for a nice 100% gain.

Since I'm now completely out of the (paper) gold market.... on Thursday we will get the following news:

1)OPEC is now using gold to price oil and that all oil purchases will have to settle in physical bullion.

2)All the metal in fort knox is actually spray painted cardboard.

3)Buffet has gone all in and is converting 100% of his holdings to physical gold.

You've been warned.

Eric Original
Aug 3, 2011 - 4:38pm


ewc, you'll appreciate this:

After the coin shop I went next door to the co-op and knocked back a double shot of wheatgrass juice.

Between the gold and the wheatgrass, talk about feeling ten feet tall!

Nigel Black
Aug 3, 2011 - 4:45pm


You forgot #4... Ben Bernanke admits on CNBS that he has been lying to the American people since he took office.

Economical Disaster
Aug 3, 2011 - 4:46pm

At Some Point.....VERY SOON

the cabel will surprise us all and let it all go. GOLD and SILVER will explode to the upside, they will throw in the towel and head for the hills. It will be survival of the fittest. I just know it, I can feel it. I have never been wrong on my feelings. Read the book "BLINK"...I may have that gift.


Dr G
Aug 3, 2011 - 4:46pm

I'll take a sell-off/raid

I'll take a sell-off/raid down to 1635. Hell, it was 3 weeks ago where gold was making several "stabs" at 1545-50 and couldn't get through. Look at us now, sitting WELL above 1600. I remember 1500 gold like it was yesterday (it basically was).

Don't get scared (but be aware as Turd says). For those traders, good luck. For the stackers such as myself, keep it up.

EDIT: and the BLS numbers on Friday will send the metals straight up once again. We all know it's coming. A raid now wouldn't bother me one bit. I got into the game late and need more time to stack a sizeable amount. What is a sizeable amount anyway?

Hellfish Eric Original
Aug 3, 2011 - 4:54pm

Well while we're talking about our new acquisitions

I just took delivery of a 100 oz RCM Silver bar and 10 ASEs, yay me. Bought a couple of weeks ago. Already in the black.

Aug 3, 2011 - 4:55pm


Thanks! First real laugh of the day. And since I bought (a little) at today's top (of course), it might balance your karma.... so gold will stay exactly where it is for the next 6 months and drive us all mad from boredom... ;-)

You've been warned!

jlee2027 ewc58
Aug 3, 2011 - 5:05pm


Santa says this madness continues until 2015?

The Dollar could collapse at any time now. How in the world do we stay afloat until 2015?

Aug 3, 2011 - 5:05pm

@DPH - Govt as Landlord; I See Opportunity

Just like you said . . .

So, will Fannie Mae be the landlord, or will private companies get to bid for the contracts to manage the slew of rentals?

Who here on this board can point me in the right direction as far as getting up to speed on forming a property management company? ASAP I might add.

Many thanks!!

Titus Andronicus jlee2027
Aug 3, 2011 - 5:08pm

@jlee2027 RE: 2015?

How do we stay afloat until 2015?

The Fed prints money.

Aug 3, 2011 - 5:12pm
Aug 3, 2011 - 5:18pm

Beautiful Morgan

Is that one graded?

Titus Andronicus
Aug 3, 2011 - 5:19pm

Sprott on silver

Eric Sprott did an interview with Jim "I don't see any silver shortage or manipulation" Puplava.

If you haven't heard it, it's pretty good. It came out a week ago.

Video unavailable
Aug 3, 2011 - 5:29pm

Jobs Report...

Well, considering a few days ago MSM news ( on radio) reported the "success" of the Debt Ceiling Increase, then in the next breath mentioned Parties on Both sides of the isle are now rallying together to "Focus" on Job Creation...

If I were playing poker looking for a "tell", I would say that is a strong one. A poorly educated guess at best.... thinking that Jobs Report is not going to Be Good at all. Then they will say, "See, no worry, we are on top of it!"

.... look in the "Turdisms" at top of page for definition of M.O.P.E....

Aug 3, 2011 - 5:38pm


Mr. Turd -

I have been following your updates for quite some time. The one thing I do not understand - why everytime gold or silver dips, you consider it a "Raid". I understand when it goes down $7.00 in 5 minutes, but it seems you consider any kind of dip a Raid from the "Bad Guys", when prices fluctuate throughout the day. You have it circled in your graph, just about every dip referring to a raid. Most of the time it dips or goes up suddenly, it's a headline/report that has come out. I am sure you have much more knowledge on this subject, but I am just confused. Thanks for any tips or advice for this matter.

Darth Smoker
Aug 3, 2011 - 5:47pm
jlee2027 Harald
Aug 3, 2011 - 5:58pm

Yeah, like finest known 68

Yeah, like finest known 68 Deep Cameo

Titus Andronicus
Aug 3, 2011 - 6:01pm
Blight Master
Aug 3, 2011 - 6:01pm

Raid terminology

Because bulls run and bears raid?

FogHorn LegHorn TF
Aug 3, 2011 - 6:12pm

TF you're a hoot!

Big lol on that,I had a good chortal tee hee! Thanks for all You do :D

Nick Elway
Aug 3, 2011 - 6:12pm

@Darth Thanks for lmgtfy

from https://lmgtfy.com/

"This is for all those people who find it more convenient to bother you with their question rather than google it for themselves."

Sweet. I can't wait to use it.

Nice Imperial currency

Aug 3, 2011 - 6:15pm

Crash Warning

Here are a few quick charts that show a possible coming crash in the stock markets. Both the S&P 500 and the DJIA seem to form topping patterns and a breakdown could swiftly eradicate thousands of points on the charts. I'm sure it would be countered with heavy stimulus from authorities though, so I don't believe in a total wipe out, but be careful in the near future. Crude oil shows a similar pattern, though not as clearly. Two opposing forces work on this one. Sluggish economies of the West with short term dwindling demand on one hand, and on the other one increasing demand out of emerging markets in collusion with central banks inflating the system with never ending stimulus. I am very bullish on oil in the long term but would rather stick with gold and silver in the coming months.


Nigel Black
Aug 3, 2011 - 6:23pm

CNBS is also talking about

CNBS is also talking about the H&S pattern in the S&P:


I recall last year about this time the same thing was happening (H&S pattern) and just when the S&P was about to complete its right shoulder, The Bernanke announced QEII (at Jackson Hole) and there was no looking back.

Wonder what The Bernanke has up his sleeve for the current market? (hint: it includes a printing press)

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