Sorry About That

96
Wed, Aug 3, 2011 - 10:38am

I apologize for the site being down for a few minutes this morning. We just needed to adjust a few settings on the servers and now we're good to go.

I've lost some time in the process so this will have to be a quick update. First, silver is finally breaking through 41.45. I have a last of 41.63. IF it can hold this position through the close, it will set the stage for a run to my initial target of 42.25.

Gold continues to rocket higher. It will have to take a breather at some point and I still think that it will happen somewhere in the neighborhood of 1680.

I've given you Trader Dan's weekly chart again because I think it is very important. Again, note the confluence of the red and blue trendlines at about the 1680 mark. I fully expect gold to pause once it hits those lines. Under "normal" circumstances, it would. However, the action today and the rest of this week must be watched very closely for if gold does not stop at 1680 and, instead, charges higher through 1700 and beyond, we will have a runaway train on our hands.

Lastly, just a few thoughts on the whole, US downgrade issue. If you're holding your breath, waiting for an S&P or Moodys downgrade, you're going to be very disappointed. You must understand that much of the entire U.S. financial system is predicated upon U.S. debt being rated AAA. Think for a moment about just how many pension funds, insurance companies, endowments, foundations, banks and mutual funds are limited, by charter, to only owning AAA-rated debt. If the U.S. were to suddenly be rated AA or even AA+, the amount of treasury selling that would ensue would utterly paralyze The Great Ponzi. Simply put, there is no way that a U.S.-based ratings agency will ever be allowed to downgrade U.S. debt. Period. The ratings agencies will go as far as they can without actually downgrading. You saw it last night with Moodys. "AAA with a negative outlook" is as far as they will ever be allowed to go.

That's it for now. Keep a very close eye on 1675-1680 in gold. The next three days are going to be very, very interesting. TF

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  96 Comments

RickyBobby
Aug 3, 2011 - 10:41am

Great job Turd!

Fill them up with processing power...

Silver2500
Aug 3, 2011 - 10:41am

First!!!!!! Again!!! LOL

First!!!!!! Again!!! LOL

Old Major
Aug 3, 2011 - 10:46am
averagejoe
Aug 3, 2011 - 10:47am

WOW

I'm kicking myself for not being heavier at the moment.

Henry Frap
Aug 3, 2011 - 10:50am

Thanks Turd for another timely bit of advice!

Thanks Turd for another timely bit of advice!

Picked up more physical yesterday, and am glad I did!

I appreciate your insight and thank you for this site-

(There are other Turdisms I'm unfamiliar with, if anyone finds the time to add to the glossary. Thanks!)

Tesla
Aug 3, 2011 - 10:50am
SilverTree
Aug 3, 2011 - 10:51am
alexdgn
Aug 3, 2011 - 10:51am

So JPM prop trading is probably going long now ;)

Good to see Silver making up for lost time today compared to a slightly less levered performance when compared to Gold.

s1lentslayer
Aug 3, 2011 - 10:51am

Man I am feeling terrible

Man I am feeling terrible about not buying when it was just over 1500. I was hoping it would dip slightly below 1500 but it never did. It's been at ludicrous speed ever since and me with my hands in my pockets.

Shill
Aug 3, 2011 - 10:51am
Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

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