Sorry About That

Wed, Aug 3, 2011 - 10:38am

 I apologize for the site being down for a few minutes this morning. We just needed to adjust a few settings on the servers and now we're good to go.

I've lost some time in the process so this will have to be a quick update. First, silver is finally breaking through 41.45. I have a last of 41.63. IF it can hold this position through the close, it will set the stage for a run to my initial target of 42.25.


Gold continues to rocket higher. It will have to take a breather at some point and I still think that it will happen somewhere in the neighborhood of 1680.



I've given you Trader Dan's weekly chart again because I think it is very important. Again, note the confluence of the red and blue trendlines at about the 1680 mark. I fully expect gold to pause once it hits those lines. Under "normal" circumstances, it would. However, the action today and the rest of this week must be watched very closely for if gold does not stop at 1680 and, instead, charges higher through 1700 and beyond, we will have a runaway train on our hands.

Lastly, just a few thoughts on the whole, US downgrade issue. If you're holding your breath, waiting for an S&P or Moodys downgrade, you're going to be very disappointed. You must understand that much of the entire U.S. financial system is predicated upon U.S. debt being rated AAA. Think for a moment about just how many pension funds, insurance companies, endowments, foundations, banks and mutual funds are limited, by charter, to only owning AAA-rated debt. If the U.S. were to suddenly be rated AA or even AA+, the amount of treasury selling that would ensue would utterly paralyze The Great Ponzi. Simply put, there is no way that a U.S.-based ratings agency will ever be allowed to downgrade U.S. debt. Period. The ratings agencies will go as far as they can without actually downgrading. You saw it last night with Moodys. "AAA with a negative outlook" is as far as they will ever be allowed to go.

That's it for now. Keep a very close eye on 1675-1680 in gold. The next three days are going to be very, very interesting. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()
Does Feb19 Comex gold close above $1250 on Friday?
Total votes: 181


RickyBobby · Aug 3, 2011 - 10:41am

Great job Turd!

Fill them up with processing power...

Silver2500 · Aug 3, 2011 - 10:41am

First!!!!!! Again!!! LOL

First!!!!!! Again!!! LOL

Old Major · Aug 3, 2011 - 10:46am
averagejoe · Aug 3, 2011 - 10:47am


I'm kicking myself for not being heavier at the moment.

Henry Frap · Aug 3, 2011 - 10:50am

Thanks Turd for another timely bit of advice!

Thanks Turd for another timely bit of advice!

Picked up more physical yesterday, and am glad I did!

I appreciate your insight and thank you for this site- 

(There are other Turdisms I'm unfamiliar with, if anyone finds the time to add to the glossary. Thanks!)

Tesla · Aug 3, 2011 - 10:50am

Fun Morning !! (and night)

Thanks Turd !!!

SilverTree · Aug 3, 2011 - 10:51am
alexdgn · Aug 3, 2011 - 10:51am

So JPM prop trading is probably going long now ;)

Good to see Silver making up for lost time today compared to a slightly less levered performance when compared to Gold.

s1lentslayer · Aug 3, 2011 - 10:51am

Man I am feeling terrible

Man I am feeling terrible about not buying when it was just over 1500. I was hoping it would dip slightly below 1500 but it never did. It's been at ludicrous speed ever since and me with my hands in my pockets.

Shill · Aug 3, 2011 - 10:51am
Tesla · Aug 3, 2011 - 10:52am
Violent Rhetoric · Aug 3, 2011 - 10:53am

S&P ran by 1250 like a hot

S&P ran by 1250 like a hot knife through butter

stoneeh · Aug 3, 2011 - 10:54am

I noticed it but np dude,

I noticed it but np dude, you're doing a fine job.

Btw did you actually say servers? How many hits are you getting per day? Imo any current machine with at least a dual core and 8 gigs of RAM or so should be able to handle a few hits per second -> at least 100k views per day. You should not need to employ a server farm for this :).

Regarding the downgrade, I think this is largely irrelevant for the PMs. Actually I think if you're investing in paper forms of metals, it is positive if nothing disturbs their spending and money printing. What I would fear IS a disturbing event, like a downgrade, like the debt limit not passing, like another market crash.. that would be fine for people who hold only physical, since they can ignore the volatility and buy more on any panic reactions in the paper market. If you're leveraged however it's beneficial to have a more steadily rising market.

- Markus

Tesla · Aug 3, 2011 - 10:56am


Buz lightyear carrot is cool!


stoneeh · Aug 3, 2011 - 10:57am

Haha abolutely amazing shit

Haha abolutely amazing shit Tesla. Made my day :).

- Markus

KK · Aug 3, 2011 - 10:57am

just wondering

When in April silver was charging ahead, there were even talks that the JPM would not be able to cover their short positions, well we saw what happened. I get a similar feeling now and then, but that's probably just me. 

Dr G averagejoe · Aug 3, 2011 - 10:58am


Better purchase when you can. Next month we will all be kicking ourselves for not being heavier then as well. It's a vicious cycle :)

mastercylinder · Aug 3, 2011 - 10:58am
Texas Goldfinger · Aug 3, 2011 - 11:00am

Silver Margin Increase

Interactive Brokers Bulletin Board

Aug 03, 2011 10:43 EDT
NOTIFICATION - Margin Increase on Silver Derivatives
In light of recent unprecedented volatility in silver markets, the exchanges that offer trading in silver derivative contracts are increasing the margin requirements on these products. In an effort to adequately address the inherent risk resulting from this volatility, IB is increasing margin requirements on silver derivative contracts to a level exceeding that which the exchanges are implementing.

Please monitor and manage your risk accordingly.
Interactive Brokers Customer Service
ewc58 · Aug 3, 2011 - 11:02am


you've got mad skills yes

proformatrillionaire · Aug 3, 2011 - 11:02am

website down

Turd, I thought the EE had decided to turn off your website. I know things in gubmint land are bad and getting worse but geez. I have been conditioned to think the worst first and go from there. 

Shill · Aug 3, 2011 - 11:03am
stoneeh · Aug 3, 2011 - 11:03am

Re: Silver Margin Increase

This already has been reported upon a few days ago by SGS ( To me this means nothing except that I will check my mails for often for mails from the CME Performance bond (margin) update mailing list. So far, nothing, meaning the exchanges have not increased margins (since the last time in May).

- Markus

Seb s1lentslayer · Aug 3, 2011 - 11:04am

@s1lentslayer Maybe soon you


Maybe soon you will say that you feel terrible for not buying when it was 1700.

Tesla · Aug 3, 2011 - 11:05am

@Stoneeh ::Thanks Man!

BTW - trapped last two kittens last night! Will be working on GW this weekend. New pics on website by this weekend too.

(Thanks EWC58 )

LongGoldLongSilver · Aug 3, 2011 - 11:09am


The ADP employment report released today epitomizes the American economy of the 21st century:  "Employment in the services sectors rose by 121,000 last month, while jobs in goods-producing sectors fell by 7,000. Manufacturing jobs declined by 1,000."

Why produce anything in the US when you can outsource the jobs to cheap labour slave camps in Asia? As long as that guy packs our groceries at the store and we have a million TV-channels to choose from, we're doing great, right?

ewc58 · Aug 3, 2011 - 11:10am

Eric: I'm a prouda poppa of triplets

AYU 1/21/12 $15 Call: cost: .32. Last trade: .88 +135%

AEM 1/21/12 $85 Call: cost: .35. Today: .45 +14% (bought it Friday, just knew it couldn't stay 97% off its 52wkh)

NGD 1.21.12 $14 Call: cost: .35. Today: .65 +47%

bullwhip29 · Aug 3, 2011 - 11:19am

S&P takes out March low

Unless we get a miraculous turnaround by Friday on a level that would wipe out yesterday's losses (and then some), stocks appear to be headed much, much lower. ie. another 10-20% to the downside or more is possible before TPTB give us another shot of morphine. Given what some think is an unusual market response to the debt ceiling deal, maybe the announcement of QE3 will not result in the massive market ramp everyone is expecting. For all we know, maybe the whole rally (post spring 2009 bottom, which BO so accurately called at S&P 666...hmm) was nothing but one huge dead cat bounce that is about to unwind before our eyes as we speak.

I don't think it matters what the ratings agencies do now. They have no credibility left. Confidence has been lost.

Sinclair's target of $1764 isn't that far off now. We'll get there eventually, but it may take multiple attempts and the process could be painful. The important thing is that it is on the radar now.

Rowley · Aug 3, 2011 - 11:20am

Trying to take it down?

Don't know if anyone has seen this yet, just reported on ZH.

Aug 03, 2011 10:43 EDT

NOTIFICATION Margin Increase on Silver Derivatives 

In light of recent unprecedented volatility in silver markets, the exchanges that offer trading in silver derivative contracts are increasing the margin requirements on these products. In an effort to adequately address the inherent risk resulting from this volatility, IB is increasing margin requirements on silver derivative contracts to a level exceeding that which the exchanges are implementing.

Please monitor and manage your risk accordingly.

Interactive Brokers Customer Service

stoneeh · Aug 3, 2011 - 11:21am

Way to go Tesla.Now that the

Way to go Tesla.

Now that the PMs are going up and lots of us have made a little fiat you might consider going to and give a little. This is Tesla's project, and I can tell you he is putting his whole ass behind this (actually with the effort he puts out it seems more like 2 asses but I am sure he has only 1 smiley) and as far as I got to know him so far I can definitely vouch for that every $ you send his way is put to good use. Also he is constantly putting smiles on our faces on this blog. This guy really does his part. If you're looking for a way to do yours, here is it.

(You didn't want me to do this Shawn but hey sorry in the end their just was no other way, hehe.)

- Markus

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