Another Stair Higher

Fri, Jul 29, 2011 - 10:38am

 While CNBS et al struggle to explain the awful, miserable and pathetic GDP numbers, I certainly hope that none of this comes as any surprise to you.

And believe me, every stone was turned looking for inputs to get the number even to the paltry 1.3% they reported. Actual growth was certainly even less than that. No matter. As the U.S. economy staggers around like Michael Spinks, tax revenues continue to plummet and the imminent "need" for more QE becomes readily apparent.

As stated here ad nauseam (particularly back in May), DO NOT SELL YOUR PMs. They are your only insurance against the financial calamity that is now rolling over the horizon. Politicians and bankers may operate and function in a dream world where they can deny reality. In truth, however, they are subject to the same rules and laws of economics as you and I. Trust your instincts and do not be dissuaded. Prepare for the worst while hoping for the best. Be a leader and help enlighten others.

I've mentioned before a book by a man named Ben Sherwood. In researching "The Survivors Club", he spoke with people who had been able to survive all sorts of disasters, both natural and man made. He wanted to find if the "survivors" shared any common characteristics, experiences or traits. He found that, without exception, all of his survivors had two things in common:

1) Faith. Not a particular religious doctrine but a faith in a Creator who was present in their lives.

2) Preparation. All survivors had taken time to mentally prepare for any and all eventualities. They "knew where to find the exit doors", so to speak.

I mention all of this today not because I expect the world to end over the weekend...but...heretofore unimaginable, life-changing events are rapidly racing toward us and we must be ready. You've been blessed with time and foreknowledge. Use it wisely.

As you might expect, the PMs are rallying on the GDP number. As predicted last night, gold has finally broken through 1625 and is currently trading near 1632. A close today near this level will help to set up another explosive Sunday-into-Monday trade which will take gold up near its next target of 1650. Silver continues higher but at a slower pace. This is clearly due to all of the lousy margin hikes form back in May. Open interest is rising but is still below 120,000. This is keeping the rally contained and measured but it also leaves the rally with plenty of room to run. A close today above 40.50 sets silver up to trade through 41 next week and make a stab at my short-term goal of 42-42.50.


That's it for now. As usual, keep an eye on the headlines out of DC and stay nimble. If any significant dip develops, I, for one, will be jumping all over it. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Old Major · Jul 29, 2011 - 10:43am
murphy · Jul 29, 2011 - 10:48am

@ Blackhawk

People still need to eat and use energy. Where do the people store their excess wealth if they have additional assets, for those who don't store food and water? Paper currency? In an out of control printing world, I think not.

Where are the trillions of investment dollars (in all currencies) going to go. If the juniors can't get financing how easy would it be for hedge fund money to come in and buy the whole gold/silver producing company. How about big boy miners using their new found gold wealth to buy them up on an even more aggressive scale?

Yes, when the tide goes out the miners take a tumble. But look at what happened since 2008, they came flying back. This time I don't think they will fall as far and they will bounce back quicker and stronger. Just look how fast the metals prices snap back nowadays. What used to take months now only takes days.

my .02 cents

Tesla · Jul 29, 2011 - 10:53am

Nice gif Silvertree

But it is 3 megabytes bro... Think maybe some users will have problems loading/refreshing the page?

No offense (you know I love all your stuff) ...just sayin'

GoldenTurds · Jul 29, 2011 - 10:56am

3rd like the Turd

oh ya.....buying Glock 17 today and ammo.

ewc58 · Jul 29, 2011 - 10:58am

Reading that, I'm pumped

One of the reasons I love ya Turd. Occasionally you're downright inspiring.

Thanks for all you do.

SilverTree · Jul 29, 2011 - 10:58am


Braveheart scene - Victory
bullwhip29 · Jul 29, 2011 - 10:59am

Speech over...blah blah blah...yawn

What outcome is most likely:

(a) markets rally hard into close (PMs are raided, naturally), then deal announced after 4pm today. everyone goes home for the weekend happy

(b) market closes on its ass today. deal announced on Sunday evening. shorts get obliterated on Monday morning

(c) Aug 2 passes with no deal. Markets selloff fall 2008 style. The players that matter get everything they want (and then some) when a completely fraudulent deal bearing no resemblance to what is presently on the table is finally cut.

*For now, it's lookin like (a) is in the cards. Nasdaq (...uh, I mean AAPL) now up...LOL. Of course, everything could change in the next 15 minutes...

Eric Original · Jul 29, 2011 - 11:00am

Talkin' the "Miners Suck" Blues

The guys at Pailin's Corner were discussing the same thing. I had a comment about it, and since I was talking up miners so much yesterday I thought I'd toss it out here on Main Street as well.

It's true. I love my miners, but they seldom love me back. It's an abusive relationship. I yack yack yack about miners all the time, on this thread and others. But the facts are that my exposure to miners is only about 35% of my exposure to physical gold and silver. And I've been very disciplined about keeping it from going any higher. Plus, my UGL shares as part of my DowGoldRatio trade aren't even factored into that.

I don't blame anybody for ditching miners and sticking with phyzz or gold ETF's. It makes a lot of sense. I just happen to like ​the damn things. It's my cross to bear....

SilverTree Tesla · Jul 29, 2011 - 11:00am

I traded the gif for a

I traded the gif for a Youtube vidi

Tesla · Jul 29, 2011 - 11:03am

Sweet - sorry for pee-ing on cornflakes

Right on man - my iPhone was being a pain in the arse with that one =]

Rock on brotha!

LongGoldLongSilver · Jul 29, 2011 - 11:05am

Panic Mode

I don't know about you, but I really enjoy reading Stewart Thomson's witty analyses:

"You can’t seriously believe the financial system can take another Lehman-style hit and remain open, can you? So, what do you think you should do with that cash, leave it all in the system, or take some out?"

"Don’t think that your President hasn’t considered closing all markets and banks, banning the public from buying gold bullion, and then revaluing gold dramatically higher. If that occurred, when he re-opened the markets, what would you feel like, what would be your financial gain or loss?"

"Can you even imagine the horrors of blowing out your gold on a debt default-fuelled hit to say, $1200 gold, only to watch the President of the United States close the banks and markets, address the nation, and announce gold has been re-valued overnight to numbers that now seem inconceivable and impossible?"Read full article here

I think it's important to get a grasp of the current state of our financial system before taking drastic actions, such as dumping gold and gold stocks in anticipation of a huge downward correction. There is no way the system can stay alive as countries and big banks start defaulting. It can't even take a major hike in interest rates. The only viable option is endless liquidity - or a shutdown.

In shutdown mode, what would you prefer owning, money in a bank account as thousands of banks close their doors and refuse withdrawals, or assets outside the banking system? This also highlights the importance of holding a healthy stack of cash, enough for a few months expenditures.

Tom L · Jul 29, 2011 - 11:06am

That was quick

The raid lasted all of 13 minutes this time? Gold back to $1628. Wow.


worldend666 · Jul 29, 2011 - 11:08am

@ Eric

>>It's true. I love my miners, but they seldom love me back. It's an abusive relationship. 

Perhaps the reason the miners, PM miners in particular are not doing as well as the underlying metal is the possibility that if Gold/Silver become money once more that the miners will all be nationalized or at the least taxed to the eyeballs?

murphy · Jul 29, 2011 - 11:12am

@ Eric

That's really a coincidence, but unfortunately for me for the wrong reason. I have the same ratio as well, only when I originally started I had the PM to miners at a 50-50 split. I still believe it will balance out in the long run.

Tesla · Jul 29, 2011 - 11:15am

You Might Like This Guy!

Video unavailable

You can find him here w/ new stuff every morning m-f

tallydynasty · Jul 29, 2011 - 11:16am

Hey Goldenturds, recommend

Hey Goldenturds, recommend highly HPR AMMO for your glock. All American! super clean, super accurate. And priced much less than other higher end ammo.

Vernon Wormer · Jul 29, 2011 - 11:21am

50 peso coin


Just received a 1947 50 peso gold coin. I bought the thing because of your enthusiasm. All I can say is WOW! What a great coin. Took a while to get it but it went up $100 in value since I ordered it. Thanks for the heads up on a great coin.

After the Storm · Jul 29, 2011 - 11:21am

My one two punch for the survival club

My Faith...

My Prep....

The storm will end. The most important thing is who will be ready and prepared to have influence when it is over. We need to think past just surviving the storm, that is necessary, but influencing people After the storm is also. They will be "ripe" for solutions. Real ones. When people really feel pain they turn to those stable eternal absolutes that have never changed in all areas of life. There must be enough folks ready to share those principles. This is what is happening financially. With fiat there is no absolute basis. People need absolutes. Gold is that absolute in terms of money. It is an unchanging law. There are unchanging laws in all areas of life. Wish we didn't always have to feel pain to turn to them. But human nature is what it is. It will be better on the other side....if enough are ready to lead....After the Storm. 

LaMachinna · Jul 29, 2011 - 11:24am


Thanks much for the reminders this morning. And, thanks again for all you do for me, my family and those here an their families. May their be a very special place in heaven for Turd and his la familia smiley

Colonel Angus · Jul 29, 2011 - 11:25am

Yesterday was the chance... BTFD. Glad I was stacking, but I think there will be more opportunities. They're not done with playing around. The can will get kicked again, and we'll have to have a crisis again, whether the Rs get their way and it is in a few months or the Ds get theirs and get to have an election before it all goes down.

Of course the Bernank might just change it all and monetize everything with QEinfinity....this is my guess.

Tesla · Jul 29, 2011 - 11:26am
ewc58 · Jul 29, 2011 - 11:31am

Eric, right there with you

Could have written that post myself. We got into miners for all that wonderful "leverage" Ha!

It's more like winding up w/ negative equity in that "sure thing" vacation home/rental in Orlando :-)

Luckily my exposure is limited along the lines of yours. That's why everyone needs gold as their foundation, especially now and going forward.

With the miners, it's more like I'm playing a board game I love. When I win it's fun and I turn it into metal. Not so much of that this year, right? But I've made lots of money in the past, and have little doubt it'll happen again when the worm turns. Meanwhile, losses are limited and I continue to hone skills that allow me to make money in unconventional ways in a very difficult environment. I think we all better to learn to do that.

It's great being able to share miner thoughts and get feedback here from others who know what they're talking about. You do such a great job on your miners forum.

Eric Original · Jul 29, 2011 - 11:33am

Hey Dean Wormer!

Glad to hear it! Yes indeed, those 50 Pesos are some kick-ass gold coins. Awesomely huge. And low premiums to boot. Been some recent discussion about them on this thread:

bullwhip29 · Jul 29, 2011 - 11:35am

@ Tom L

Re: That was quick

I don't think it is over yet. In fact, I think there is a small chance this whole exercise was rigged to convince all of us that the raids don't work anymore. Why raid when the whole planet is watching? Just a question... Markets are rallying hard, craziness everywhere, anything and everything is possible. If things unfold along the lines of option A (see my prev post), that will convince me once and for all that all this so called fumbling around in Wash was scripted, staged and executed with precision all according to a predetermined game plan. That should make everyone nervous.

tyberious · Jul 29, 2011 - 11:35am

S*%T Just Got Real:

Shit Just Got Real: Primary Dealers Called To New York Fed For Emergency Noon Meeting

From an email just sent out by Morgan Stanley's David Greenlaw:

The NY Fed just asked primary dealers to come downtown today at noon to meet with Fed and Treasury Dept officials. We expect to hear them outline a contingency plan for next week. Details to follow.

Eric Original · Jul 29, 2011 - 11:36am


Thx bud. Been a ton of posts since your last one on my miner thread. You should stop by. yes

LaMachinna After the Storm · Jul 29, 2011 - 11:38am

After The Storm...

awesome post! Thank you!

Exergy · Jul 29, 2011 - 11:39am

Keeping the faith while protecting your family

Thanks Turd!

We sit and watch the gong show called politics being played out in a media who's ONLY job is to grab your attention (don't forget that they are NOT in the "news" business... they are in the "market share" business to drive up their adverting rates.)

We have learned, in no small part to Turd and the other here to even predict the moves of the players on the stage today... just like following the old wrestling shows when everyone leaned the "moves" of the various actors and knew the role they each played. This forum is allowing us to learn the characters and their roles... making them surprisingly predictable!

In the USA the "actors" will come up with a deal... or not... and if not there will be an executive order that will get Obama past the next election. The USA will go deeper into debt.

The the USA has 500 billion of bonds to roll in august (who's buying them?) PLUS replace the hundreds of billions they have "borrowed" from pensions. Finally they must find about 150 billion a month in new money to fund the deficit that is somewhere between 1.5 and 3.5 TRILLION THIS YEAR. Does anyone see a balanced budget plan PLUS a plan to deal with rising interest rates...and heaven forbid a deficit reduction plan? 

Europe will continue to slowly dissolve economically before our very eyes... every day its a new issue in a different country.

INFLATION is here but won't be reported for at least 6 months to 12 months AT THE VERY LEAST...probably more because it would require a rise in interest rates that they all can't afford.

We keep stacking our physical KNOWING that it is the only thing that is real ...i mean that literally... solid physical has NO third party liability to it unlike paper money or certificates or stocks or bonds or GICS etc.

Oh yeah...The Rothschild family...the same family that created the gold "fix" ...the same family that left the LBMA because in all likelihood they knew the bullion on the books and in the vaults of nations was air...has funded the new metals exchange in Hong Kong......WHAT IS MORE BULLISH THAN THAT?!

For GOD's sake... double check you have your physical

...then play the senior miners

... then play the juniors.

...then the rest of the commodity complex because those things are real...and when the trillions sloshing around in the system will rush to anything real as the only alternative...and there is not much of it by comparison to the volume of "money" that can and will panic sooner or later.

mr.glitch · Jul 29, 2011 - 11:40am


I don't agree with the short term prediction of 42 - 42.50 next week for silver.

I doubt we see those levels until a formal or hinted QE3 comes from Bernanke's mouth, so TPTB will knock it down once again no matter what kind of deal happens.

The dumb money is expecting a huge move to the upside, so naturally it will play out exactly the opposite in the short term. Great buying opps next week if you are on the fence.

JMHO, good luck...Keep stacking the physical.

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