Dried Out and Ready

Mon, Jul 25, 2011 - 2:33pm

LT #1 and I had a wonderful time at the U2 show Saturday night. I have a question for you, though. When was the last time you voluntarily stood in the rain? I did it for over 2 hours Saturday night and had a blast. Soaked and cold but happy. How The Edge managed to play in the downpour I have no idea. How Larry was able to keep metronomic time while soaking wet is a mystery.

Onto the task at hand. Another day with no "bipartisan deal" on the debt ceiling. Yawn. I do find it interesting, however, that every little headline or rumor is seized upon by The Cartel and the WOPRs and the PMs fall sharply. To me, there are three very important things for you to keep in mind:

1) The open interest numbers, particularly in silver, are still so low that it's going to be very difficult for a cascade/waterfall to develop. Unlike late April, silver contracts now reside in what are, primarily, very strong hands.

2) At the end of the day, the debt ceiling is going higher, probably to the tune of $2T or so. Again, from where will that money be coming??? Sure there will be some borrowing from willing lenders but the vast percentage will be from continuing QE.

3) We are headed into August and the typical, very strong seasonality of the PMs.

All of these combine to create a great atmosphere to buy the dips. Not every dip will be met with substantial FUBMs as there will be days when the EE will win. However, in the end, any metal bought today is going to worth substantially more in fiat by Labor Day. They will be worth even more by Halloween. They will likely be even higher still by Thanksgiving.

So, the next time the PMs drop sharply on some manufactured "news", don't panic. Just calmly step to the plate, point to the cheap seats and then park one right up The Cartel's batooty. TF



About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()
Does Feb19 Comex gold close above $1250 on Friday?
Total votes: 181


LaMachinna · Jul 25, 2011 - 2:38pm

Me thinks.....

the EE is vewy, vewy sneaky at creating battle fatigue. I am fatigued by it all and know there must be atleast one other out there that is????????? Anyone....Buehler.....McFly.......

Or, has LaMachinna lost her coins (marbles) !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


(copied from end of last thread..)

Ginger! I've caught the ... disease!




....... .... ... .....................


... .. ... .. ..


.. .. .

 .. . ..... .

Silvergunn · Jul 25, 2011 - 2:42pm

Stepping up, on deck...

Patiently waiting to go all in. Thanks Turd I concur!

silverbleve · Jul 25, 2011 - 2:44pm


I was at that show! I was afraid we would all die from electrocution from the lightning. Rip Amy winehouse. Btfd: if you wanna kiss the sky better learn how to neal.

Shill · Jul 25, 2011 - 2:52pm


Welcome back Captain, the ship is on course and were headed for the unknown, set the coordinates and give us direction.

GoldMania3000 · Jul 25, 2011 - 2:54pm

So then...how much is too much or not enough

If you have been accumulating a s..t load of metals over the past years...i.e. bags of 1964 silver, peace silver rolls, etc and it got so heavy that you wouldn't be able to carry it of your home in the event of a situation, what would you do? Given that you may have purchased some of this stuff when silver was $8, 10, 15$, etc. You could sell now and make a profit and convert to gold which is lighter. I didn't realize how heavy silver was until I tried to see if I could carry it out.

So today I did something that may have not been wise to some..I converted a significant amount of this silver into gold...which is much easier to carry. I walked into a very reputable store and it took them over an hour to count all the quaters, silver and dimes (with a machine). I had to carry it with multiple suitcases. It was heavy!!!

Was this the right thing to do? Well I rationalized it as I made a lot of profit on the silver and now have gold which will still perserve my money and probably grow it over the next years. I'm still keeping silver eagles and will still buy but will just balence it out with gold. And again, it was just way too heavy. There would be no way I could escape with all that stuff bymyself if I had too. 

The other concern I had/have is security, how much do/should you really keep around. I don't trust the banks and I think the idea of having your gold/silver assets out of the country doesn't make much sense unless you have 100$M's.

I know physical is the way to go, but there's also a rational to have ETFs maybe like SPROTT whereby you can convert if you need to.

Anyway that's what I did, how about other thoughts?

Eric Original · Jul 25, 2011 - 3:00pm


You are correct in that there is a practical limit as to how much physical silver one can handle. If you are now closer to something manageable, then you did right.

SilverTree · Jul 25, 2011 - 3:00pm
Much4Him · Jul 25, 2011 - 3:01pm

See you in Sept.

Went to Sept Calls in GDX , SIVL great to be verified by the Turd! 

Ten · Jul 25, 2011 - 3:05pm

Mining Shares

If you want to prove yourself that there is manipulation on mining shares, pull out a 10-15 minutes chart of the XAU (or HUI). Have it automatically refreshed every 5-30 seconds if you can. You will clearly see that there's an algorithm suppressing the mining shares and that this trade is clearly not just profit-motivated.

The XAU has "failed" no less than 4 times to take the 220.87 level. Today it finally "succeeded" on its 5th attempt but by watching it on an auto-refreshed chart it was quite obvious that an "invisible hand" would not have it. Off-course the break-out was reversed early in the day so the XAU miraculously has failed to break for the 5th time!!! Please don't believe the garbage about "ratio trade". There is clearly an algorithm suppressing the mining shares as a way to control sentiment in this sector.

Violent Rhetoric · Jul 25, 2011 - 3:23pm



U.S. Can Dodge Default to September: Wells Fargo

The U.S. government can push back a threatened default at least until early September, a month after the Aug. 2 deadline set by the Treasury Department, said John Silvia, chief economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC.

“The Federal Reserve and the Treasury can work together to generate enough cash probably for the next two or three months to avoid any kind of automatic default on the Treasury debt,” he said. “There’s a way of getting around this issue for at least another month or two.”

duckwomanloulou stoneeh · Jul 25, 2011 - 3:25pm


Please give it up with the sniping and flaming. This is a friendly community and as someone has already said, the enemy is outside of this community not within it.

My dad died today. Sometimes there is just more important things in life.


LongGoldLongSilver · Jul 25, 2011 - 3:27pm

I hate (most) politicians

It's all about kicking the can down the road enough to get re-elected. Selfish, power-thirsty bunch of idiots are pawning our entire future just to grab onto their useless careers.

"But administration and Congressional officials said that during the meeting, Mr. Obama and the Democratic leaders had resolved to hold firm against any short-term agreement that did not raise the debt ceiling beyond next year’s presidential elections."

"Mr. Obama will veto any debt legislation unless it extends the ability of the nation to borrow into 2013, the White House chief of staff, William M. Daley, said on Sunday. "Read full NYT article here


ginger · Jul 25, 2011 - 3:29pm

LaMachinna ....there you go

LaMachinna ....there you go girl!!...

It had to happen. It was only a matter of time..cheeky ..It just types so much quicker and easier than all those appropriately placed ,s (commas). .........And yes, I agree with you on the battle fatigue. It's like Ten just posted right above about the mining shares. I am sooooo so worn out with the way this sector is being purposely held down. It's criminal. Just plain wrong and I do wonder what will ever make 'them' stop so that the miners get to reflect a true market buy/sell. ......So, I'm with you but then again ...that's exactly what 'they' want ...for us all to get tired and show weak hands and give up.

I'll sooner go to my grave with my way undervalued shares than to sell one single share to a criminal manipulator.

Alot of us are edgey today. Deep breath everyone. We're all on the same team here. Go do something else besides this for a while maybe to get some perspective. ...I for one have been in my office too much today and my 14 year old is downstairs making chocolate cookies. .....Think I'm going to go have some with milk with her. ......NO ONE can stay edgey through chocolate chunk cookies!!smiley

ScottJ · Jul 25, 2011 - 3:30pm

Two Double Bottoms forming a

Two Double Bottoms forming a stronger double bottom above previous all time highs.....

I would say its time to be bullish.....

ginger · Jul 25, 2011 - 3:32pm

Lou, I am so sorry. I will


I am so sorry. I will keep you in my prayers today I promise. .......All the best to you and I hope you will be comforted by good memories with him.

duckwomanloulou ginger · Jul 25, 2011 - 3:38pm

Thanks Ginger and Shill

Thank you for your thoughts and prayers. My Dad was a great guy who was taken too early from us (he was only 65). He wasn't perfect but he was human.

He was the one who got me into Gold as during the 70's he had 20 Kruggerands which he sold to finance his first business. He was invested this time following discussions together and at least that we as part of his family are protected in the same way he protected us back in the 70's.

He had been battling cancer for a year and was ready to go and said as much the last time I saw him (ironically in France on Bastille Day).

RIP Dad you will be missed by us all


Shill · Jul 25, 2011 - 3:38pm


My heart felt sorrow for your loss.

Ignore the Dopes among us Lou., I laugh when I see F-bombs dropped or blatant threats to others on the Intertube...Sometimes very small minded and weak minded individuals hide behind a key board, but when real life happens they run like the Girly men that they are.

Again sorry for your loss, god speed to you and yours.

ewc58 · Jul 25, 2011 - 3:42pm

Same Lou

I'm very sorry to hear of the passing of your father. You have Turd Town's deepest sympathies.

ancesthntr · Jul 25, 2011 - 3:43pm

duckwomanloulou and sniping

Duckwomanloulou: My sincerest condolences. We've never met, but I think that everyone can empathize with your loss.

Everyone else - please, stop with the nonsense and let this blog be a high-quality, mature place to visit and contribute. Anyhow, we all have a common enemy in TPTB, who are steadily destroying our society and stealing our wealth and that of our children. Let's try to cooperate to help each other through this series of trials, rather than engaging in a bunch of childish sniping.

Dr G · Jul 25, 2011 - 3:44pm


I was hesitant to post here today due to all the personal sniping that is taking place. Part of me thought "I'll wander over to that cesspool known as Kitco and see what's going on over there", then I came to my senses. It was close though. If I want to hear ignorant slandering and bickering I'll just sit in my waiting room. 

Metals looking good. I'm not sure if I should buy today, but I have that itch! I'm thinking that we will see quite the plunge when the debt agreement is reached. Any chances that the POS/POG already have factored in the debit ceiling being raised? I doubt it. The EE will take any opportunity to raid the metals.

I'd like to wait and purchase when those dips occur. Maybe I'll just nibble today and nibble tomorrow and eventually get full? smiley

Nigel Black · Jul 25, 2011 - 3:45pm

@duckwomanloulou - Lou

Hey Lou,

Sorry to hear about your loss. You and your family are in my thoughts and prayers...

ChicksDigIt · Jul 25, 2011 - 3:47pm

The Life of a Silver Hitman

Check out Cleburne61's new animation vid on the silver manipulation!
JP Morgan's silver robots....even better than the silver bears!
Great work Cleburne!

The Life of a Silver Hitman


ginger · Jul 25, 2011 - 3:49pm

You have got to love Jim

You have got to love Jim Rogers. I just really like his 'say it like it is' straight forwardness. ...The latest I watched from him was on kliguy38's blog. ........Which, by the way, I don't contribute to his blog (those traders are waaAAaay over my head) but I do read him every single day and learn alot as Kli discusses much more than trading and I always find myself wanting him to post just a little bit more about his perspectives. .......Just in case there are those here that haven't come across his blog.. here it is:


The never-politically-correct Mr. Rogers video is embedded in the latest post.

ginger · Jul 25, 2011 - 3:51pm

Dr G: "If I want to hear

Dr G: "If I want to hear ignorant slandering and bickering I'll just sit in my waiting room"

I sure hope you're not my doctor.. :D

just kidding. ...that was funny..

ScottJ · Jul 25, 2011 - 3:53pm

Just "Alert Moderator" with

Just "Alert Moderator" with any particularly slanderful items, and the post will be subject to removal and the person will be subject to having their account banned. Sometimes arguments get heated, so please try to exercise caution between someone disagreeing with you (which may seem rude or even have rude connotations alongside it), and reporting what is downright un-constructive and has no value at all.

People expressing anger towards one another will happen, and in distasteful ways at times... and remember...

Not everything will be monitored to the the liking of all varying opinions that are surely upon this board.. as one thing that seems distasteful and ignorant to one person can be seen in the same way from the opposite perspective...

But let's have facts being debated instead of personal attacks. And remember, this is a random gathering of people, so we do not know who is who... so don't take anything TOO seriously no matter how sensitive/insensitive it may be to your situation. The fact of the matter is we will not be able to stop all the trolls, but if we talk in a constructive manner, it will be much easier to spot them. When we engage them on their level, it empowers their cause.

paulindoon · Jul 25, 2011 - 3:56pm

LouLou - my sincere condolenses

When my dad passed away a few years ago, I fought extremely hard NOT to let my saddness show for I had to be the strong one for the rest of my siblings. But in my silence, I felt the grieve deep inside.

My sincere condolences & prayers are with you LouLou. Please know that the sun will still shine tomorrow (or the day after) even though it may seems so dark at this moment.

seekonksteve · Jul 25, 2011 - 3:59pm


My heart felt sympathy to you and your family.Lou you are in my prayers.

TheGoodDoctor GoldMania3000 · Jul 25, 2011 - 4:05pm

@Peace Silver I read Larry

@Peace Silver

I read Larry Edelson. One thing I like about him is his marcro views another are his ideas about limiting risk in the PM sector. He suggest 25% of your portfolio be split into 4 parts. 1. Bullion 2. ETF's (GDX, GDXJ, SLV, GLD) 3. Miners 4. PM Funds (like Sprott or Tocqueville Gold).

I would like to say that this is a fairly decent mix. My thoughts are this: Diversify 50/50 gold/silver overall in the portfolio in each category if possible. Most folks will say you need more gold or more silver. Whatever. If you believe in the silver argument fine. But to not have your butt hanging in the wind go 50/50. Do your own research. It's half the fun.

That being said you can never have enough physical (bullion) IMHO. There are tax benefits to holding ASE's American Silver Eagles and there is a bill that is trying to get passed that will give even more tax benefits to holding Eagles. We should hope they make all PMs tax free someday soon. Otherwise I think it is 28% on gains for bullion. Might be less for ASE's. You can get Gold Eagles too. Either from the mint or a coin dealer is where you typically will get the Gold/Silver Eagles.

Miners: Again split between gold and silver. Pick up some good ones to hold for the long term. The boom in mining resources is set to last at least another 20 years. Even more if some things go extinct. There are plenty of good miners referenced in the forums. Again mix your risk with large producers, juniors, and explorers. Watch people, political risk, funding, ownership, land for exploration potential etc. etc. There is a good thread in silver miners section that was started by Ginger that has a lot of great info on analyzing miners. Eric Original has a good gold miners thread and there is one about the next big silver miner that is good as well. (Check gold/silver miner forums)

ETFs: Stay away from GLD and SLV. IE Paper. It is used as a too to manipulate the price of physical gold and silver. There is oodles of information on the forums about this. That being said there are some good ETF's like GDX, GDXJ and others that you can find on the forums that are mining focused. Again you can mix them up if you like. Most of the ones I would stick to would be mining ETF's or the mining index ETF's.

PM Funds: Pick and choose your own. Some of these can be like mutual funds holding a mix of miners and physical. Or just physical. Sprott has some good funds and physical funds. As I mentioned the Tocqueville fund is a known good one. Pinetree Capital I would say falls under this category as well. And the US Funds headed by Frank Holmes.

By investing this way you are limiting risk over gold and silver, limiting risk over large producers, juniors and explorers, and limiting risk via physical/miners/PM funds, and limiting risk over the choice of investment vehicles and investment providers as well. I hope this helps. Good luck!

PS The bottom line is don't jump into anything right away. Educate yourself and ask many questions. People will help you out so that you do not make the same mistakes that we have all made at some point! smiley

ewc58 · Jul 25, 2011 - 4:07pm

just self hat tipped by accident

Yucko! Thought I was on another comment. Wrong. Please cut me back by 1 ht.

And yes, let's all try to remain chill (present company included). Aside from a few dedicated trolls and complete idiots, we're all on the same side here and have more than enough EE enemies to worry about.

Like we use to say back in the day: Peace. Love. Waterbed.

TheGoodDoctor SilverTree · Jul 25, 2011 - 4:08pm

Caption This!

@Silver Tree

"John, you do realize I can provide you with all the gambling, hookers, free rides on our upcoming high speed rail, and gold you need right?"

"Harry, of course I do, I'm a politician!"

Become a gold member and subscribe to Turd's Vault


Donate  Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events week of 12/17

12/17 8:30 ET Empire State Fed Manu.
12/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
12/19 8:30 ET Existing Home Sales
12/19 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
12/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
12/21 8:30 ET Q3 GDP final guess
12/21 8:30 ET Durable Goods
12/21 10:00 ET Personal Income, Personal Spending and Core Inflation

Key Economic Events week of 12/10

12/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
12/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
12/13 8:30 ET Import Price Index
12/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
12/14 9:15 ET Industrial Prod. and Cap. Utilization
12/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events week of 11/26

11/27 9:00 ET Case-Schiller home prices
11/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
11/28 8:30 ET Q3 GDP 2nd guess
11/28 10:00 ET New home sales
11/29 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
11/29 10:00 ET Pending home sales
11/29 2:00 ET November FOMC minutes