Dried Out and Ready

Mon, Jul 25, 2011 - 2:33pm

LT #1 and I had a wonderful time at the U2 show Saturday night. I have a question for you, though. When was the last time you voluntarily stood in the rain? I did it for over 2 hours Saturday night and had a blast. Soaked and cold but happy. How The Edge managed to play in the downpour I have no idea. How Larry was able to keep metronomic time while soaking wet is a mystery.

Onto the task at hand. Another day with no "bipartisan deal" on the debt ceiling. Yawn. I do find it interesting, however, that every little headline or rumor is seized upon by The Cartel and the WOPRs and the PMs fall sharply. To me, there are three very important things for you to keep in mind:

1) The open interest numbers, particularly in silver, are still so low that it's going to be very difficult for a cascade/waterfall to develop. Unlike late April, silver contracts now reside in what are, primarily, very strong hands.

2) At the end of the day, the debt ceiling is going higher, probably to the tune of $2T or so. Again, from where will that money be coming??? Sure there will be some borrowing from willing lenders but the vast percentage will be from continuing QE.

3) We are headed into August and the typical, very strong seasonality of the PMs.

All of these combine to create a great atmosphere to buy the dips. Not every dip will be met with substantial FUBMs as there will be days when the EE will win. However, in the end, any metal bought today is going to worth substantially more in fiat by Labor Day. They will be worth even more by Halloween. They will likely be even higher still by Thanksgiving.

So, the next time the PMs drop sharply on some manufactured "news", don't panic. Just calmly step to the plate, point to the cheap seats and then park one right up The Cartel's batooty. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Jul 25, 2011 - 2:38pm

Me thinks.....

the EE is vewy, vewy sneaky at creating battle fatigue. I am fatigued by it all and know there must be atleast one other out there that is????????? Anyone....Buehler.....McFly.......

Or, has LaMachinna lost her coins (marbles) !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

(copied from end of last thread..)

Ginger! I've caught the ... disease!




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Jul 25, 2011 - 2:42pm

Stepping up, on deck...

Patiently waiting to go all in. Thanks Turd I concur!

Jul 25, 2011 - 2:44pm


I was at that show! I was afraid we would all die from electrocution from the lightning. Rip Amy winehouse. Btfd: if you wanna kiss the sky better learn how to neal.

Jul 25, 2011 - 2:52pm


Welcome back Captain, the ship is on course and were headed for the unknown, set the coordinates and give us direction.

Jul 25, 2011 - 2:54pm

So then...how much is too much or not enough

If you have been accumulating a s..t load of metals over the past years...i.e. bags of 1964 silver, peace silver rolls, etc and it got so heavy that you wouldn't be able to carry it of your home in the event of a situation, what would you do? Given that you may have purchased some of this stuff when silver was $8, 10, 15$, etc. You could sell now and make a profit and convert to gold which is lighter. I didn't realize how heavy silver was until I tried to see if I could carry it out.

So today I did something that may have not been wise to some..I converted a significant amount of this silver into gold...which is much easier to carry. I walked into a very reputable store and it took them over an hour to count all the quaters, silver and dimes (with a machine). I had to carry it with multiple suitcases. It was heavy!!!

Was this the right thing to do? Well I rationalized it as I made a lot of profit on the silver and now have gold which will still perserve my money and probably grow it over the next years. I'm still keeping silver eagles and will still buy but will just balence it out with gold. And again, it was just way too heavy. There would be no way I could escape with all that stuff bymyself if I had too.

The other concern I had/have is security, how much do/should you really keep around. I don't trust the banks and I think the idea of having your gold/silver assets out of the country doesn't make much sense unless you have 100$M's.

I know physical is the way to go, but there's also a rational to have ETFs maybe like SPROTT whereby you can convert if you need to.

Anyway that's what I did, how about other thoughts?

Jul 25, 2011 - 2:57pm

Fuck you

DPH, SilverTree and Shill. Anyone else?

- Markus

Eric Original
Jul 25, 2011 - 3:00pm


You are correct in that there is a practical limit as to how much physical silver one can handle. If you are now closer to something manageable, then you did right.

Jul 25, 2011 - 3:00pm
Jul 25, 2011 - 3:01pm

See you in Sept.

Went to Sept Calls in GDX , SIVL great to be verified by the Turd!

Jul 25, 2011 - 3:05pm

Mining Shares

If you want to prove yourself that there is manipulation on mining shares, pull out a 10-15 minutes chart of the XAU (or HUI). Have it automatically refreshed every 5-30 seconds if you can. You will clearly see that there's an algorithm suppressing the mining shares and that this trade is clearly not just profit-motivated.

The XAU has "failed" no less than 4 times to take the 220.87 level. Today it finally "succeeded" on its 5th attempt but by watching it on an auto-refreshed chart it was quite obvious that an "invisible hand" would not have it. Off-course the break-out was reversed early in the day so the XAU miraculously has failed to break for the 5th time!!! Please don't believe the garbage about "ratio trade". There is clearly an algorithm suppressing the mining shares as a way to control sentiment in this sector.

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

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