Ultraviolet

316
Fri, Jul 22, 2011 - 10:21pm

Just two simple charts for you to chew on over the weekend. I'll be unavailable for a couple of days as I'm headed to where the streets have no name. It'll be a sort of homecoming for me in the city of blinding lights, out there in God's country, where the land is often as white as snow. This time of year, however, it should be a couple of beautiful days.

First up, here's a weekly silver. As you can see, the uptrend from 2010 appears to be firmly intact. This chart confirms for me, however, that silver, above 40, will encounter some resistance around 42 to 42.50. It won't be the end of the world but there may be a period of a few weeks where gold will outperform. Ah...silver and gold. What a pair! Two hearts that beat as one!

Gold, on the other hand, looks magnificent...almost like staring at the sun. Gold may often seem to move in mysterious ways but, in fact, it moves with grace. Once you realize that the goal of The Cartel is to manage its ascent, you can begin to see, and rely upon, repeating patterns. The most grand of patterns is evident on the chart below:

The pattern above is not just the real thing, it's even better than the real thing. Note how, since 2009, gold has followed a six-month pattern of, roughly, 20 weeks UP followed by 6 weeks down. It may appear out of control but it is, in fact, the sweetest thing. Gold is now clearly into its next 20 week UP cycle. Following pattern, we should expect a mid-November high, somewhere in the neighborhood of $1800. Not bad.

That's it for now. I must walk on with or without you. I hope you have a great weekend though of course, some days are better than others. This is my exit but I'll be back in three sunrises. TF

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Save_America1st
Jul 24, 2011 - 12:12pm

Interview w/ Ian Gordon of Longwave

Ian Gordon: 2011 Marks Beginning of Worldwide Paper Currency Collapse With No Historical Precedence

https://www.contraryinvestorscafe.com/

Just click play on the CIC flowplayer on the main page to hear the interview...

¤
Jul 24, 2011 - 12:08pm

@DPH - You Correctly Called This One

You were the first one to have called this. Congratulations on your brilliant insight. That is why I read all of your posts. It takes me some time to decipher some of them, though! Anyhow, think back to the early 70's. It was then that the sole breadwinner paradigm began to change. By the mid-80's, working women were celebrated; it was the norm. Today, the whole concept of a single breadwinner is looked at like a quaint anachronism. So too, this should in all likelihood play out the same, just like you predicted. First will come the public recognition that housing is unaffordable, unfair. Ten there will be cosmogony by the masses for "fairness.". Then some progressive politician will emerge with a "solution" which is basically govt subsidized housing on a grand scale. Maybe it is time to start a property mgmt company? Keep up the brilliant analysis, I appreciate it!

¤
Jul 24, 2011 - 11:57am

Must Read This

You must read the new ZH thread about the White House warning of the markets this week. As if we all didn't know this was coming after Fridays Obama drama after the markets closed.

Hey, he taunted the markets on purpose IMO.

TSHTF is actually about to HTF

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/white-house-chief-staff-warns-about-stressful-days-market

¤Aronnax
Jul 24, 2011 - 11:42am

CA Lawyer

As you remember, I wrote at length on your RE thread about Govt.'s future in direct involvement with real estate and houses on the market that can't be moved.

CD's post up above is only the beginning. Born of desperation and with the old ways not working anymore they will have to do something drastic and favorable to the banks...of course

Our F'ed-up Reserve will only be too happy to accommodate the bankers, and Govt. itself eventually will be the owners and holders of all property titles, documentation and the financing. Quasi- eminent domain becomes normal?

Some will say that Govt. has always been involved in housing and renting etc.

Yep, but not on this proposed scale and under these RE market circumstances.

¤
Jul 24, 2011 - 10:59am

Beware the hand that force feeds you

Refresh of Black Swan definition-Taleb Submitted by thetrader on 07/21/2011 04:28 -0430

  • Black Swan

    By www.thetrader.se

    Every now and then one should reread the below, especially in these uncertain times.

    “Consider a turkey that is fed every day. Every single feeding will firm up the bird’s belief that it is the genreal rule of life to be fed every day by friendly members of the human race “looking out for its best interest,” as a politician would say. On the afternoon of the Wednesday nefore Thanksgiving, something unexpected will happen to the turkey. It will incur a revision of belief.”

    “The turkey problem can be generalized to any situation where the same hand that feeds you can be the one that wrings your neck.” s 40, Black Swan, Nassim Taleb

    For deeper knowledge, check out video with Taleb from earlier this year here.

    zerohedge.com

Jul 24, 2011 - 10:56am

On debt, borrowing and PMs

I agree with those who recommend being out of debt. You feel so free knowing that the banksters have no hooks in you. My wife and I were debt free from 1989 to 1997 until we bought our first home. More recently, we have gone back into debt with our real estate rental business. Income meets all payments and then some. Our properties still have enough equity (upon a sale) to pay off all debts and leave us with some extra, but as real estate prices continue to fall, we will probably be underwater. And if layoffs continue, our budget could go in the red.

More to the point, We used a CC (0% interest for a year) to buy silver last April when things were getting hot. I am now in a loss in that deal, but we can make the payment comfortably and I am confident the silver will continue up until we are well in the black. I cannot recommend that others do the same, and I should have bought gold. There is risk—especially if you are in a field suffering layoffs. I have a stable job (so far) at a state university, so I knew we could afford the payment. Everyone’s situation is different.

On home equity loans or refinancing out fiat to buy metals, I believe it’s all about affording the payment and your willingness to lose your home. If our current government system remains stable, your payment on the note will be tax deductible. Frankly, if my house were paid off, I would finance out my equity and buy gold. Reasons: 1) The equity is likely to evaporate steadily until the real estate market stabilizes and begins appreciating again. 2) Home mortgage interest is currently tax deductible (warning: this might change with the new budget deal!), so you can own gold and write off the cost to buy it. But you will have a payment! Can you, and are you, willing to afford it. As I mentioned above, I am working on a refinance that will lower my payments and give me a few thousand in fiat. The numbers work in my case.

I lost 2 homes back to banks in 1986 and 1989. There is life after foreclosures. They don’t scare me any longer. But I’ll avoid it if at all possible. If I lose my job here in the Midwest USA, we will move back near relatives in Arizona and rent out our home with a manager. If we can emerge from the coming financial crisis/depression with our properties intact, that’s the best plan. We could get wiped out and go bankrupt. But I’ll hold this stack of PMs with both hands and use it to rebuild without the need for banksters.

Well, that’s my humble opinion—just sharing my story to help others make a decision. Not suggesting anyone take high risks while on the edge of a cliff. Being debt free is the best option. Right now, I wish I could sell out and rent…

@Shill—thanks for the advice on haircuts. I’ll write a letter to the bank and deliver it in person asking for the discount. I agree that real estate is a poor investment right now. We own 8 properties and it’s increasingly problematic to find renters in our area who will actually pay the rent consistently. We have been taken to the cleaners several times.

That is a scary article about Fannie & Freddie getting into the rental business. Thanks for posting, CD!

@ Ginger, your faith is encouraging. All we can do is keep prepping as we are able.

TheGoodDoctorAronnax
Jul 24, 2011 - 3:22am

@CD It's a great thing CD. No

@CD It's a great thing CD. No one knows who owns the deeds. So, no one does upkeep on the place. It turns into a shit hole eventually, gets torn down, planned obsolescence, and boom it a few years the home building is back on track again!

PS I had "shithole" as one word. Thank goodness spell check helped me out on that one. It was actually in the spell check. LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

TheGoodDoctorShill
Jul 24, 2011 - 3:17am

@Shill Self enforced

@Shill Self enforced austerity measures? What a joke.

TheGoodDoctorJimi
Jul 24, 2011 - 3:16am

@Jimi Being able to self

@Jimi Being able to self moderate. Like blocking posts that are only ranked one star or blocking users. I'm sure those are for starters. But that would remove a ton of traffic if we can even block users. Maybe I will ban RobotTrader! LOL. He is not a friend of this blog. LOL. He bashes the metals big time. Also, now you can do sigs I guess too.

PS No emoticons over at ZH. And pictures privileges will be removed if abused. (I see them being removed. LOL) Oh, and thank God it loads faster now too!

Aronnax
Jul 24, 2011 - 2:18am

Not that this is necessarily a shocking surprise, but...

Government Considers Ways to Rent Foreclosed Homes

https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:Tl5s8cFtA-UJ:online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904233404576458300001332210.html+%22Government+Considers+Ways+to+Rent+Foreclosed+Homes&cd=2&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us&source=www.google.com

So, housing crisis will be solved... by the by, how does the whole ownership/title process work with MBS? Doesn't the Fed now own a substantial portion of these? Are we looking at massive gov't owned housing coming to a neighborhood near you, all in the name of propping up real estate prices? Is there not just a whiff of moral hazard inherent in this brilliant scheme?

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Key Economic Events Week of 11/23

11/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
11/23 1:00 ET Goon Daly
11/23 3:00 ET Goon Evans
11/24 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
11/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
11/24 11:00 ET Goon Bullard
11/24 12:00 ET Goon Williams
11/24 12:45 ET Goon Chlamydia
11/25 8:30 ET Q3 GDP 2nd guess
11/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
11/25 10:00 ET Personal Inc and Spend
11/25 10:00 ET Core inflation
11/26 US Market holiday

Key Economic Events Week of 11/16

11/16 2:00 pm ET Goon Chlamydia
11/17 8:30 ET Retail Sales
11/17 8:30 ET Import Price Index
11/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
11/17 10:00 ET Business Inventories
11/17 1:00 pm ET Chief Goon Powell
11/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts
11/18 1:20 pm ET Goon Bullard
11/19 8:30 ET Jobless claims
11/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed

Key Economic Events Week of 11/9

11/9 1:30 pm ET Goon Mester
11/10 7:30 am ET Goon Kaplan
11/10 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
11/10 10:00 ET Goon Rosengren
11/11 Veteran's Day. Bond market closed.
11/12 8:30 ET CPI
11/12 11:45 ET Chief Goon Powell
11/12 2:00 pm ET Federal budget
11/13 7:00 ET Goon Williams
11/13 8:30 ET PPI
11/13 8:30 ET Goon Bullard
11/13 10:00 ET Consumer sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 11/2

11/2 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
11/2 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
11/2 10:00 ET Construction Spending
11/3 U.S. Election Day
11/4 November FOMC begins
11/4 8:30 ET ADP jobs report
11/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
11/4 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
11/4 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
11/5 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
11/5 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
11/5 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell presser
11/6 8:30 ET BLSBS
11/6 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 10/26

10/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/27 10:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
10/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
10/27 10:00 ET Richmond Fed
10/28 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
10/28 8:30 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/29 8:00 ET ECB monetary policy stmt
10/29 8:30 ET Q3 GDP first guess
10/30 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
10/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/30 10:00 ET UMich Consmer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 10/19

10/19 11:45 ET Goon Chlamydia
10/20 8:30 ET Housing Starts
10/20 1:00 pm ET Goon Evans
10/21 10:00 ET Goon Mester
10/21 2:00 pm ET Fed Beige Book
10/22 8:30 ET Initial Jobless Claims
10/23 9:45 ET Markit Oct flash PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 10/12

10/13 8:30 ET CPI and Core CPI
10/14 8:30 ET PPI
10/14 9:00 ET Goon Chlamydia
10/15 8:30 ET Philly Fed
10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Idx
10/15 8:30 ET Import Price Idx
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inv

Key Economic Events Week of 10/5

10/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
10/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
10/5 10:45 ET Goon Evans
10/6 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
10/6 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
10/6 10:45 ET Chief Goon Powell
10/7 2:00 ET Sept FOMC minutes
10/7 3:00 ET Goon Williams
10/8 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 12:10 ET Goon Rosengren

Key Economic Events Week of 9/28

9/29 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
9/29 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
9/29 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/30 8:15 ET ADP employment report
9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
10/1 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 9/21

9/21 8:00 ET Goon Kaplan
9/21 10:00 ET Goon Evans
9/21 Noon ET Goon Brainard
9/21 6:00 pm ET Goon Williams & Goon Bostic
9/22 10:30 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/22 Noon ET Goon Barkin
9/22 3:00 pm ET Goon Bostic again
9/23 9:00 ET Goon Mester
9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for September
9/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/23 11:00 ET Goon Evans again
9/23 Noon ET Goon Rosengren
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Quarles
9/24 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/24 Noon ET Goon Bullard
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Barkin again & Goon Evans #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #4
9/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/25 11:00 ET Goon Evans #4
9/25 3:00 pm ET Goon Williams again

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