Ultraviolet

316
Fri, Jul 22, 2011 - 10:21pm

Just two simple charts for you to chew on over the weekend. I'll be unavailable for a couple of days as I'm headed to where the streets have no name. It'll be a sort of homecoming for me in the city of blinding lights, out there in God's country, where the land is often as white as snow. This time of year, however, it should be a couple of beautiful days.

First up, here's a weekly silver. As you can see, the uptrend from 2010 appears to be firmly intact. This chart confirms for me, however, that silver, above 40, will encounter some resistance around 42 to 42.50. It won't be the end of the world but there may be a period of a few weeks where gold will outperform. Ah...silver and gold. What a pair! Two hearts that beat as one!

Gold, on the other hand, looks magnificent...almost like staring at the sun. Gold may often seem to move in mysterious ways but, in fact, it moves with grace. Once you realize that the goal of The Cartel is to manage its ascent, you can begin to see, and rely upon, repeating patterns. The most grand of patterns is evident on the chart below:

The pattern above is not just the real thing, it's even better than the real thing. Note how, since 2009, gold has followed a six-month pattern of, roughly, 20 weeks UP followed by 6 weeks down. It may appear out of control but it is, in fact, the sweetest thing. Gold is now clearly into its next 20 week UP cycle. Following pattern, we should expect a mid-November high, somewhere in the neighborhood of $1800. Not bad.

That's it for now. I must walk on with or without you. I hope you have a great weekend though of course, some days are better than others. This is my exit but I'll be back in three sunrises. TF

About the Author

Founder
tfmetalsreport [at] gmail [dot] com ()

  316 Comments

  Refresh
illyasviel
Jul 24, 2011 - 1:35pm

Hellu Thoughts on tomorrow? I

Hellu

Thoughts on tomorrow? I read somewhere that if the debt ceiling is raised, then the dollar will strengthen and short term the prices of PMs might go down. If that's true, together with the expiration of the july calls. will be be hitting $35 on silver again?

Mickey¤
Jul 24, 2011 - 1:31pm

tonite and tomorrows markets

unless something happens soon it will be volatile to the downside near term--then a miracle will happen and the debt ceiling will be raised and everybody will be chummy in DC praising everybody else in doing the right things. Congress goes on August Break (the 3rd recess since March). Markets will then rally. In 2-3 months reality will set in and then we reach the real problem.

we can't squeeze blood out of a turnip.

Save_America1st
Jul 24, 2011 - 1:30pm

Turd's trend-setting continues???

I noticed ZeroHedge updated their website last night, and they have eliminated "junking" people's posts. Looks like they have some kind of point system for posts now, but not sure yet how it works out. They don't have a hat-tip, but the fact that they eliminated the more negative anonymous junking seems to be a "hat-tip" to Turd.

Eric Original
Jul 24, 2011 - 1:18pm

skydiving

We're kind of fighting the weather on the skydiving thing right now. Wanting the skies to clear. Looking more like we will be either delayed or rescheduled.

¤
Jul 24, 2011 - 1:06pm

Guesses on POSX, Au or Ag prices tonight?

I'm guessing that the POSX could be $73.35 by the time the PM's open up tonight.

I'm also guessing Au $1642/high and Ag $43.75/high by midnight to allow some time for the other markets to get fully involved before a London EE beat down takes place.

The "attempted" beat down might be ready immediately. We'll know quick enough if they are there and ready. No doubt.

¤
Jul 24, 2011 - 12:55pm

Property Mngmnt/Mortgage Mngmnt

I couldn't agree more about the property management growth potential. I know nothing of the business but the trend seems obvious.

As people can't afford to own or get credit for a mortgage and the more they are fearful of getting stuck with a underwater house or tyhe inability to sell it, they will more and more choose to rent or let someone (bank/Govt.) eventually take the risk for them.

I think of it like this. What would be the best case scenario for a person or bank (Govt.) that holds the paper on a piece of property after the property has been occupied, paid the mortgage faithfully month after month (pre-2007) for the most part and had it mostly paid off?

The worst thing for the homeowner is the best thing for the banks who hold the paper. The person can not pay any longer and is forced through desperation (or legally) to vacate or abandon the property back to the bank at a loss.. Now the bank has a mostly previously paid for property and they get to sell it or rent it again and actually take physical possession of it.

I think that the lack of mortgage or credit availability is a tool they are using so the property buying or renting public becomes even more dependent because of desperation.

How could trillions of new USD be created and given to the banks to clean up all of their losses and potential losses and almost none of that money (on a % basis ) be available to boost the flaccid housing market?

They want the properties and our dependence on them for housing and credit

Speaking of mortgage management, I remember a interview a few years ago by some big mortgage industry guy on MSM talking about the future of housing and mortgage management etc. and he spoke of fannie and freddie being gone eventually and the Govt. getting heavily involved with 3rd party mortgage management companies and he mentioned PMI as one to own and hold onto. I paid attention to it then and I still am.

Now, I don't know a lot about PMI (ticker) as of recently but if you look back at their share price history and how they are potentially positioned that if a lot of this mortgage industry is reconfigured it looks like they might benefit greatly.

Ambac Financial was another.

Ferd Torgersonlazytrader
Jul 24, 2011 - 12:48pm

@lazytrader: Home Equity Loan to buy PMs

In the end the decision will be yours but there is no way I'd mortgage my home to buy metals. My wife and I have begun a modest program of buying gold and silver on a gradual basis. Our home is free and clear and we intend to keep it that way.

Depending upon the type of mortgage you could get, it might be an ARM for which the monthly payments could increase once interest rates start going up - whenever that might be. While we like to believe all we read about precious metals going to the moon, there are no guarantees. You could find yourself with a high mortgage payment down the road and your PMs under water.

You may need that equity later on for a medical emergency for a family member or yourself. Instead of going all in, I'd put aside a small amount each couple of weeks and use that to buy whatever you can buy with it. You can increase that amount by looking at every penny you spend on a week to week or month to month basis. When in Best Buy, will that new video game provide more satisfaction a year from now than an Almost Uncirculated Peace Silver Dollar that you can probably get for a comparable amount? There are probably several such decisions you could make once you look at your own situation.

If you have a 401K at work, you might consider reducing your own contribution to that plan IF you think PMs will outperform whatever you're invested in there. Be warned, however, that reducing your own contribution may well cause your employer to reduce their contribution.

It's a hard decision for any of us except the very wealthy. I can tell you that having no debt other than monthly credit card bills that you pay in full when the bills come in is a great way in and of itself to build wealth.

I hope whatever you decide on works out best for you and your immediate family. I'm in no position to lecture anyone else. I'd just suggest that you don't let others in the family or friends push you into a decision. You're the one that will have to live with the consequences of your action.

Just my humble opinion. Good luck.

¤
Jul 24, 2011 - 12:36pm

Deciphering

Thanks CA, very humbling coming from a well versed person such as yourself.

There are so many people on here who are so well spoken and informed that we all learn and expand our thought processes just from being active participants on Planet Turd.

When I write sometimes just pretend I'm casually speaking to you with some hand gestures (that 1/2 Italian thing can't suppress itself) and I break into small side thoughts (like on ZH when he/they go on a side thought tangent) like I just did. Except I use commas sometimes to break it up.

Have fun deciphering that

NW VIEWCalifornia Lawyer
Jul 24, 2011 - 12:28pm

PROPERTY MANAGEMENT-CALIFORNIA LAWYER

We started a property management division in our real estate company almost two years ago. We started with just a few old beaters. This division has grown to where we had to start a repair- fixer upper person because of how the new rental housing has floated through our office doors. My son-in-law runs the division and he is making more money than 97% of the real estate agents in the state just off of the rental income. This division will continue to expand and he will have to hire more help. This is an area for future job growth that is not even tapped. One must check their state laws to see what licenses are required to manage property.

Eric Original
Jul 24, 2011 - 12:23pm

Doc J

Really good post there about debt, PM's, etc.

Subscribe or login to read all comments.

Become member and subscribe to Turd's Vault

Contribute

Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 11/23

11/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
11/23 1:00 ET Goon Daly
11/23 3:00 ET Goon Evans
11/24 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
11/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
11/24 11:00 ET Goon Bullard
11/24 12:00 ET Goon Williams
11/24 12:45 ET Goon Chlamydia
11/25 8:30 ET Q3 GDP 2nd guess
11/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
11/25 10:00 ET Personal Inc and Spend
11/25 10:00 ET Core inflation
11/26 US Market holiday

Key Economic Events Week of 11/16

11/16 2:00 pm ET Goon Chlamydia
11/17 8:30 ET Retail Sales
11/17 8:30 ET Import Price Index
11/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
11/17 10:00 ET Business Inventories
11/17 1:00 pm ET Chief Goon Powell
11/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts
11/18 1:20 pm ET Goon Bullard
11/19 8:30 ET Jobless claims
11/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed

Key Economic Events Week of 11/9

11/9 1:30 pm ET Goon Mester
11/10 7:30 am ET Goon Kaplan
11/10 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
11/10 10:00 ET Goon Rosengren
11/11 Veteran's Day. Bond market closed.
11/12 8:30 ET CPI
11/12 11:45 ET Chief Goon Powell
11/12 2:00 pm ET Federal budget
11/13 7:00 ET Goon Williams
11/13 8:30 ET PPI
11/13 8:30 ET Goon Bullard
11/13 10:00 ET Consumer sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 11/2

11/2 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
11/2 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
11/2 10:00 ET Construction Spending
11/3 U.S. Election Day
11/4 November FOMC begins
11/4 8:30 ET ADP jobs report
11/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
11/4 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
11/4 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
11/5 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
11/5 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
11/5 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell presser
11/6 8:30 ET BLSBS
11/6 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 10/26

10/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/27 10:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
10/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
10/27 10:00 ET Richmond Fed
10/28 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
10/28 8:30 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/29 8:00 ET ECB monetary policy stmt
10/29 8:30 ET Q3 GDP first guess
10/30 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
10/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/30 10:00 ET UMich Consmer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 10/19

10/19 11:45 ET Goon Chlamydia
10/20 8:30 ET Housing Starts
10/20 1:00 pm ET Goon Evans
10/21 10:00 ET Goon Mester
10/21 2:00 pm ET Fed Beige Book
10/22 8:30 ET Initial Jobless Claims
10/23 9:45 ET Markit Oct flash PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 10/12

10/13 8:30 ET CPI and Core CPI
10/14 8:30 ET PPI
10/14 9:00 ET Goon Chlamydia
10/15 8:30 ET Philly Fed
10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Idx
10/15 8:30 ET Import Price Idx
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inv

Key Economic Events Week of 10/5

10/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
10/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
10/5 10:45 ET Goon Evans
10/6 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
10/6 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
10/6 10:45 ET Chief Goon Powell
10/7 2:00 ET Sept FOMC minutes
10/7 3:00 ET Goon Williams
10/8 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 12:10 ET Goon Rosengren

Key Economic Events Week of 9/28

9/29 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
9/29 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
9/29 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/30 8:15 ET ADP employment report
9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
10/1 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 9/21

9/21 8:00 ET Goon Kaplan
9/21 10:00 ET Goon Evans
9/21 Noon ET Goon Brainard
9/21 6:00 pm ET Goon Williams & Goon Bostic
9/22 10:30 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/22 Noon ET Goon Barkin
9/22 3:00 pm ET Goon Bostic again
9/23 9:00 ET Goon Mester
9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for September
9/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/23 11:00 ET Goon Evans again
9/23 Noon ET Goon Rosengren
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Quarles
9/24 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/24 Noon ET Goon Bullard
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Barkin again & Goon Evans #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #4
9/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/25 11:00 ET Goon Evans #4
9/25 3:00 pm ET Goon Williams again

Forum Discussion

by matt_, 4 hours 1 min ago
by matt_, 4 hours 43 min ago
by silverseeker, Nov 25, 2020 - 11:19pm
by 11IMIX, Nov 25, 2020 - 7:50pm
by Turd Ferguson, Nov 25, 2020 - 6:04pm
by Trail Trekker, Nov 25, 2020 - 5:37pm
randomness