Ultraviolet

316
Fri, Jul 22, 2011 - 10:21pm

Just two simple charts for you to chew on over the weekend. I'll be unavailable for a couple of days as I'm headed to where the streets have no name. It'll be a sort of homecoming for me in the city of blinding lights, out there in God's country, where the land is often as white as snow. This time of year, however, it should be a couple of beautiful days.

First up, here's a weekly silver. As you can see, the uptrend from 2010 appears to be firmly intact. This chart confirms for me, however, that silver, above 40, will encounter some resistance around 42 to 42.50. It won't be the end of the world but there may be a period of a few weeks where gold will outperform. Ah...silver and gold. What a pair! Two hearts that beat as one!

Gold, on the other hand, looks magnificent...almost like staring at the sun. Gold may often seem to move in mysterious ways but, in fact, it moves with grace. Once you realize that the goal of The Cartel is to manage its ascent, you can begin to see, and rely upon, repeating patterns. The most grand of patterns is evident on the chart below:

The pattern above is not just the real thing, it's even better than the real thing. Note how, since 2009, gold has followed a six-month pattern of, roughly, 20 weeks UP followed by 6 weeks down. It may appear out of control but it is, in fact, the sweetest thing. Gold is now clearly into its next 20 week UP cycle. Following pattern, we should expect a mid-November high, somewhere in the neighborhood of $1800. Not bad.

That's it for now. I must walk on with or without you. I hope you have a great weekend though of course, some days are better than others. This is my exit but I'll be back in three sunrises. TF

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TheGoodDoctorCalifornia Lawyer
Jul 24, 2011 - 3:39pm

@ Cali Lawyer For many

@ Cali Lawyer

For many decades you could have one bread winner in the family and get by. Inflation in the 70's and 80's made the two income family necessary. Yes it did spawn some growth. Now with the new inflation that is upon us individuals will have to choose between working 2+ jobs, 16 hour days or having children. So much for land of the free.

treefrog
Jul 24, 2011 - 3:31pm

just say "no."


Christmas is a time when kids tell Santa what they want and adults pay for it. Deficits are when adults tell the government what they want and their kids pay for it.[Richard Lamm]
kliguy38
Jul 24, 2011 - 3:21pm
¤
Jul 24, 2011 - 2:42pm

CA Lawyer

Do you recall the night many months ago when I opened this can of worms and the conversation we had on TF's old blog? I think you do. I caught some flak for it the next day and I never brought it back up.

Check this out.

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forum/1303/blockbuster-revelation-mini-do...

treefrogVelocity
Jul 24, 2011 - 2:30pm

rentals

velocity,

my take on the real estate market timing lines up pretty well with that of your "clever cookies." i look for housing prices to continue to tank into a bottom somewhere like 2015 or '16. from there flat for an extended period (reckoning in "constant dollars").

i was in the rental business for about 20 years up until 2004/5. i sold the last parcel except where i live in early '06. sell into rising market.

i did most of my own maintenance, and kept my prices five to ten percent below the prevailing market. i had almost a zero vacancy rate. i chose my tenants carefully. i did background checks before they became common. usually a call to their previous landlord told me all i needed to know. i had a rule of thumb that i never bought anything with a long mortgage. ten years tops. i always put at least 1/3 down and if 2/3 the estimated rental income wouldn't pay off a ten year note, i looked for a better deal. i did pretty well. i would have done even better if i hadn't been financially raped in a divorce about halfway through. i've found that duplexes work well as rentals.

i'm a little old to start that up again in 2015 but i have a son who may be willing to do the heavy lifting while i stand back and give unsolicited advice.

Blight Master
Jul 24, 2011 - 2:27pm

I'd trade all my PM's for a

I'd trade all my PM's for a paid off home with low property taxes and a little land in a heartbeat. Born too late I suppose, although I'm definitely glad I wasnt born five years earlier and stuck in an underwater mcmansion. My rent is cheap, renters insurance is much, much, much lower than homeowners insurance, and I dont have to pay property taxes, but I'd still rather own my own home that I can actually work on and make better. When the time comes I'll buy a home in cash (if its still around) but that is a long way off considering how far I think this market still has to go.

Velocity
Jul 24, 2011 - 1:49pm

Doc J - sell-out while there's time left

Doc J

Thanks for the story.. take your own advise and sell (while there's still time)

The property market ain't coming back, it'll be tanking down a mountain-side for another 5 years... after then it'll stay stagnant for another 10 ...that's an assimilation of some clever cookies i listen into

The property market will never be the same again. I truly believe home ownership will be a gonna and regards you renting your home have you seen the US Govt proposal mention above to rent out foreclosed homes? The US Govt/Banksters have already ruined freehold property, now they're going to devistate the rental sector!!!

Either way you want to be out of property until the shakedown abates and a new direction becomes apparent

¤
Jul 24, 2011 - 1:46pm

The Markets Tonight will be nicknamed...

U2 Sunday Bloody Sunday Live From Slane Castle
Dr Durden
Jul 24, 2011 - 1:43pm

They'll raise the ceiling,

They'll raise the ceiling, you can count on that.

They just need more time to scare the shit out of everyone and play chicken with each other. They'll take it to the 11th hour to get as many Amerikan's behind the real agenda: spend more money, go deeper and deeper into debt and re-elect Owebama. We've already defaulted and will continue to default in silence until one day everything blows up and they can blame each other.

cris
Jul 24, 2011 - 1:41pm

tonight

Well, if one can assume the markets will be logical (always an unreliable assumption, I know)

The Repubs have signalled all over TV this morning that they WILL propose a solution "before Asian markets open", and it will be a short term solution that they will dare Obama to veto.

Obama has NO balls, and so will not get in the way, but will rather try to spin it as some sort of victory. Whatever. The government has proven themselves to be completely dysfuctional.

The EE will jump on this perhaps last best opportunity to beat down PMs. I am almost certain Turd is waiting to use Sunday Bloddy Sunday for tonight. Could be like May 1.

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11/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
12/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI Nov
12/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI Nov
12/2 8:15 ET ADP Employment Report
12/3 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI Nov
12/3 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI Nov
12/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
12/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit Nov
12/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 11/23

11/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
11/23 1:00 ET Goon Daly
11/23 3:00 ET Goon Evans
11/24 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
11/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
11/24 11:00 ET Goon Bullard
11/24 12:00 ET Goon Williams
11/24 12:45 ET Goon Chlamydia
11/25 8:30 ET Q3 GDP 2nd guess
11/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
11/25 10:00 ET Personal Inc and Spend
11/25 10:00 ET Core inflation
11/26 US Market holiday

Key Economic Events Week of 11/16

11/16 2:00 pm ET Goon Chlamydia
11/17 8:30 ET Retail Sales
11/17 8:30 ET Import Price Index
11/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
11/17 10:00 ET Business Inventories
11/17 1:00 pm ET Chief Goon Powell
11/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts
11/18 1:20 pm ET Goon Bullard
11/19 8:30 ET Jobless claims
11/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed

Key Economic Events Week of 11/9

11/9 1:30 pm ET Goon Mester
11/10 7:30 am ET Goon Kaplan
11/10 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
11/10 10:00 ET Goon Rosengren
11/11 Veteran's Day. Bond market closed.
11/12 8:30 ET CPI
11/12 11:45 ET Chief Goon Powell
11/12 2:00 pm ET Federal budget
11/13 7:00 ET Goon Williams
11/13 8:30 ET PPI
11/13 8:30 ET Goon Bullard
11/13 10:00 ET Consumer sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 11/2

11/2 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
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11/4 8:30 ET ADP jobs report
11/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
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11/5 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
11/5 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
11/5 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell presser
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10/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
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10/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
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10/29 8:00 ET ECB monetary policy stmt
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10/20 1:00 pm ET Goon Evans
10/21 10:00 ET Goon Mester
10/21 2:00 pm ET Fed Beige Book
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10/13 8:30 ET CPI and Core CPI
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10/7 2:00 ET Sept FOMC minutes
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9/29 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
9/29 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
9/29 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
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9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
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