Ultraviolet

316
Fri, Jul 22, 2011 - 10:21pm

Just two simple charts for you to chew on over the weekend. I'll be unavailable for a couple of days as I'm headed to where the streets have no name. It'll be a sort of homecoming for me in the city of blinding lights, out there in God's country, where the land is often as white as snow. This time of year, however, it should be a couple of beautiful days.

First up, here's a weekly silver. As you can see, the uptrend from 2010 appears to be firmly intact. This chart confirms for me, however, that silver, above 40, will encounter some resistance around 42 to 42.50. It won't be the end of the world but there may be a period of a few weeks where gold will outperform. Ah...silver and gold. What a pair! Two hearts that beat as one!

Gold, on the other hand, looks magnificent...almost like staring at the sun. Gold may often seem to move in mysterious ways but, in fact, it moves with grace. Once you realize that the goal of The Cartel is to manage its ascent, you can begin to see, and rely upon, repeating patterns. The most grand of patterns is evident on the chart below:

The pattern above is not just the real thing, it's even better than the real thing. Note how, since 2009, gold has followed a six-month pattern of, roughly, 20 weeks UP followed by 6 weeks down. It may appear out of control but it is, in fact, the sweetest thing. Gold is now clearly into its next 20 week UP cycle. Following pattern, we should expect a mid-November high, somewhere in the neighborhood of $1800. Not bad.

That's it for now. I must walk on with or without you. I hope you have a great weekend though of course, some days are better than others. This is my exit but I'll be back in three sunrises. TF

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Jul 24, 2011 - 4:46pm

No U.S. Deal/Investors Eye Asia

By dlevine[at]marketwatch[dot]com (Deborah Levine), MarketWatch

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Investors awaited signs of action from Congress Sunday as the opening of markets in Asia approached and no deal to increase the U.S. debt limit was apparent.

A 4 p.m. Eastern deadline set Saturday by House Speaker John Boehner (R., Ohio) for a report on progress on a compromise plan to raise the nation’s $14.2 trillion debt limit to avert a potential Aug. 2 default passed with no word.

Boehner had scheduled a 4:30 p.m. conference call with his Republican colleagues.

Boehner said Saturday he wanted the framework of a plan to assure Asian markets before the trading began. Markets in Tokyo and Sydney were scheduled to open at 8 p.m. Eastern.

Earlier Sunday, lawmakers and Obama administration officials expressed confidence there would be a plan by late in the day U.S. time.

Click to Play

White House Chief of Staff William Daley said on CBS’ “Face the Nation” that the lack of an agreement could be “stressful” for global investors.

“We may have a few stressful days coming up, and stressful for the markets of the world and the American people,” he said.

The chance of a technical default by the U.S. is still seen at around 20%, said Jack Albin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank.

“The problem from an investment standpoint is hedging is difficult,” he said. “Our conclusion is to buy any significant dip, should one occur.”

Coming up with a plan very soon to make sure the U.S. meets its debt obligations is “the only option available,” Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said Sunday. “They’re going to increase the debt ceiling, and we will not default.”

However, Boehner also said if a bipartisan deal to raise the debt ceiling isn‘t possible, Republicans will go it alone, according to media reports.

Default would be ‘devastating’

The White House has warned that the U.S. could default on Aug. 2 if the $14.2 trillion debt limit isn’t raised by Congress.

“To default would be a tax on all Americans and it would be devastating to the country,” Geithner said on ABC’s “This Week.”

The economy would have trouble recovering from that, he said.

TheGoodDoctor
Jul 24, 2011 - 4:32pm

Paul Craig Roberts: The

Paul Craig Roberts: The President Can Just Ignore the Debt Ceiling Limit; Congress Rendered Superfluous?

https://www.dailypaul.com/171706/paul-craig-roberts-the-president-can-ju...

This guy is the former Assistant Secretary of the Treasury under Reagan.

Jimymactreefrog
Jul 24, 2011 - 4:32pm

Very similar business model

Rentals,

Except for 25% down and paying an unexpected visit to prospective tenants, we were playing the same game and it was very successful, even during the Carter years. Then there were assumptions and when the interest rates started falling to acceptable levels we converted.

I have been considering mentoring my boys along the same model, except I think the Madison, Wi. area (Waunakee and Middleton) market continues to be exceptionally resilient as it did during the Great depression.

Here is my concern. Embittered renters. Am I mistaken in my analysis that these new renters coming from their homes that they thought would never take them back to renting be so bitter so as to take it out on good landlords? Would that mean the due diligence now includes psychological profiling?

TheGoodDoctorCleburne61
Jul 24, 2011 - 4:27pm

We only need 6 more Earths!

We only need 6 more Earths! LOL. Good one Cleburne61!

Velocity
Jul 24, 2011 - 4:22pm

Treefrog and The Good Doc - Housing

Treefrog - you ran a tight smart ship, a much better Landlord than i for sure... i saw the property bubble coming as early as 2005 but didn't get out of the way! Luckily i'm in a wealthy area of Europe where prices didn't budge an inch, sold my flats in 2009 and my house in 2010. I now rent my way around Europe following the sun :)

Doctor - i think what's coming will knock the crap out of any residual warm cuddly feelings toward home ownership. Quite frankly now i'm in the rental sector why do i want to own a decaying pile of bricks? Let the Landlord maitain the place and for me, i want to move to the latest hi-tek 'thang' with the latest designs (as i do every 3-4 years with cars)

To you both...

If the economic cycles are spot-on 2016 is the grisly bottom for stock market prices. The property sector LED the stock market decline by a year.. US property topped in 2006, US stocks topped arguably late 2007 to March 2008. So property may hit rock bottom before stocks do in 2016

But if the Great Depression is anything to go by property will stay at rock bottom with prices remaining flat for a decade after before they look like turning up in price again.. and personally i feel home ownership and the idea of having a stone around your kneck for 30 years slave to the banks is toast. Our attitude to credit/debt/mortgages is going to change dramatically hereon

...so property is no place to be for at least the next 10-15 years except for the very brave or smart and maybe never again!!

Cleburne61
Jul 24, 2011 - 4:19pm

God bless you TF, and your

God bless you TF, and your ongoing efforts here.

Btw my CIGA'S and SLA comrades....I'm a fellow silver soldier, and I wanted to do my part in getting the word out about the manipulation. So over the weekend I made my very first Xtranormal Vid on the subject. It will look nothing like TF's Blythe vids, because his are so brilliant that I thought imitation wouldn't be flattery, only a cheap knock-off. So I gave it my own feel and theme.

This video details the difficulties a silver monkey is currently dealing with. I even pay homage to TF's lingo in there, by referring to the 'deathstar'(notice the two characters are actually standing in a place that looks like the inside of the deathstar). I hope y'all enjoy it! Have a great week ahead!

The Life of a Silver Hitman
TheGoodDoctorcris
Jul 24, 2011 - 3:57pm

@cris Seems that everyone is

@cris Seems that everyone is forgetting the 14th Amendment threat. See just as long as the Repubs propose something they don't look bad to their voters. With Bill Clinton coming out and telegraphing to Obama to use the 14th Amendment, personally I think that is the route they go.

They need chaos. They need QEIII. Chaos in the markets first. Debt ceiling raised by 14th Amendment. QEIII. Possible impeachment proceedings. Supreme Court loaded with Obama's new appointees votes on the 14th Amendment debt ceiling raise as Constitutional just in time for the elections.

I could be wrong.

Blight Master
Jul 24, 2011 - 3:56pm

T-minus 2 hours 8 minutes

"This suspense is terrible, I hope it will last."

-Oscar Wilde

TheGoodDoctorVelocity
Jul 24, 2011 - 3:45pm

@Velocity Agreed. Housing

@Velocity Agreed. Housing won't even come back right away if and when jobs come back. People will have to make up for raiding their savings, 401ks, emergency funds, get out of debt etc. Then and only then will they be able to get that FHA loan or have 20% down.

But hell there will probably be a lot of fear as to whether A: folks even want to buy a house because of uncertainty B: what if they get let go from their current job

TheGoodDoctor¤
Jul 24, 2011 - 3:42pm

@DPH Why don't you refresh

@DPH Why don't you refresh those that don't recall or didn't read what you said. People are adults here. You don't have to battle with anyone just put a disclaimer on the post. If people would like to discuss it more bring it to the forums and create a thread.

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Key Economic Events Week of 1/18

1/19 10:00 ET Mother for SecTreas hearing
1/20 12:00 ET POTUS Inauguration
1/21 ECB meeting and rate decision
1/21 8:30 ET Housing Starts
1/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
1/22 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs (Jan)

Key Economic Events Week of 1/11

1/11 12:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
1/12 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
1/13 8:30 ET CPI
1/13 1:00 ET Goon Brainard speech
1/13 2:00 ET Beige Book
1/14 8:30 ET Import price index
1/14 12:30 ET Chief Goon Powell
1/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales
1/15 8:30 ET PPI
1/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
1/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 1/4

1/4 9:45 ET Markit manu PMI
1/4 10:00 ET Construction Spending
1/5 Georgia U.S. Senate election
1/5 10:00 ET ISM manu PMI
1/6 US election certification
1/6 8:15 ET ADP Employment Report
1/6 9:45 ET Markit service PMI
1/6 10:00 ET Factory Orders
1/6 2:00 ET December FOMC minutes
1/7 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
1/7 10:00 ET ISM service PMI
1/8 8:30 ET BLSBS
1/8 8:30 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 12/21

12/21 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
12/22 8:30 ET Q3 GDP final guess
12/22 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
12/23 8:30 ET Durable Goods
12/23 8:30 ET Personal Inc and Spending
12/23 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 12/14

12/15 8:30 ET Import Price Index
12/15 8:30 ET Empire State Index
12/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
12/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
12/16 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs Dec
12/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
12/16 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
12/16 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell presser
12/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed
12/18 8:30 ET Current Account Deficit
12/18 10:00 ET LEIII

Key Economic Events Week of 12/7

12/8 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
12/9 10:00 ET JOLTS jop openings
12/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
12/10 8:30 ET CPI
12/11 8:30 ET PPI

Key Economic Events Week of 11/30

11/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
12/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI Nov
12/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI Nov
12/2 8:15 ET ADP Employment Report
12/3 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI Nov
12/3 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI Nov
12/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
12/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit Nov
12/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 11/23

11/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
11/23 1:00 ET Goon Daly
11/23 3:00 ET Goon Evans
11/24 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
11/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
11/24 11:00 ET Goon Bullard
11/24 12:00 ET Goon Williams
11/24 12:45 ET Goon Chlamydia
11/25 8:30 ET Q3 GDP 2nd guess
11/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
11/25 10:00 ET Personal Inc and Spend
11/25 10:00 ET Core inflation
11/26 US Market holiday

Key Economic Events Week of 11/16

11/16 2:00 pm ET Goon Chlamydia
11/17 8:30 ET Retail Sales
11/17 8:30 ET Import Price Index
11/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
11/17 10:00 ET Business Inventories
11/17 1:00 pm ET Chief Goon Powell
11/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts
11/18 1:20 pm ET Goon Bullard
11/19 8:30 ET Jobless claims
11/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed

Key Economic Events Week of 11/9

11/9 1:30 pm ET Goon Mester
11/10 7:30 am ET Goon Kaplan
11/10 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
11/10 10:00 ET Goon Rosengren
11/11 Veteran's Day. Bond market closed.
11/12 8:30 ET CPI
11/12 11:45 ET Chief Goon Powell
11/12 2:00 pm ET Federal budget
11/13 7:00 ET Goon Williams
11/13 8:30 ET PPI
11/13 8:30 ET Goon Bullard
11/13 10:00 ET Consumer sentiment

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