Ultraviolet

316
Fri, Jul 22, 2011 - 10:21pm

Just two simple charts for you to chew on over the weekend. I'll be unavailable for a couple of days as I'm headed to where the streets have no name. It'll be a sort of homecoming for me in the city of blinding lights, out there in God's country, where the land is often as white as snow. This time of year, however, it should be a couple of beautiful days.

First up, here's a weekly silver. As you can see, the uptrend from 2010 appears to be firmly intact. This chart confirms for me, however, that silver, above 40, will encounter some resistance around 42 to 42.50. It won't be the end of the world but there may be a period of a few weeks where gold will outperform. Ah...silver and gold. What a pair! Two hearts that beat as one!

Gold, on the other hand, looks magnificent...almost like staring at the sun. Gold may often seem to move in mysterious ways but, in fact, it moves with grace. Once you realize that the goal of The Cartel is to manage its ascent, you can begin to see, and rely upon, repeating patterns. The most grand of patterns is evident on the chart below:

The pattern above is not just the real thing, it's even better than the real thing. Note how, since 2009, gold has followed a six-month pattern of, roughly, 20 weeks UP followed by 6 weeks down. It may appear out of control but it is, in fact, the sweetest thing. Gold is now clearly into its next 20 week UP cycle. Following pattern, we should expect a mid-November high, somewhere in the neighborhood of $1800. Not bad.

That's it for now. I must walk on with or without you. I hope you have a great weekend though of course, some days are better than others. This is my exit but I'll be back in three sunrises. TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  316 Comments

Sterling
Jul 22, 2011 - 10:30pm

you too?

you too?

winemaker
Jul 22, 2011 - 10:31pm

Party Girl

She wants much more than a party.

Hard Rain
Jul 22, 2011 - 10:34pm

Achtung Baby

...you will have fun under the Joshua Tree, I am sure.

question
Jul 22, 2011 - 10:40pm

Thanks Turd

"I must walk on with or without you"

Sure thing bro; follow your muse. I'm with you even if somewhat confused by your cryptic leave taking.

Three suns it is.

May the wind be at your back and the road rise to meet your feet.

thecoloredsky
Jul 22, 2011 - 10:44pm
Dr Durden
Jul 22, 2011 - 10:49pm

Welp, the only place UII is

Welp, the only place UII is playing in the next thrice days is here in Mpls at TCF field. If this is indeed what crypitc Turd is forecasting, I will have to wear a funny yellow hat to see if I can draw him out. :D

Schwartz9546
Jul 22, 2011 - 10:49pm

What happens there stays there

What happen there stays there...careful!

Prize Fighter
Jul 22, 2011 - 10:58pm

B-side bliss!

There's been a lot of talk about this blog. Maybe, maybe too much talk. This blog is not a rebel blog, this blog is Money, Sound Money.

Looking forward to your return with stories for boys....

Long John
Jul 22, 2011 - 10:58pm

the Dog Days are Over.....

Happiness, hit her like a train on a track Coming towards her, stuck still no turning back She hid around corners and she hid under beds She killed it with kisses and from it she fled With every bubble she sank with a drink And washed it away down the kitchen sink The dog days are over The dog days are done The horses are coming So you better run Run fast for your mother run fast for your father Run for your children for your sisters and brother......f.a.t.m .

stoneeh
Jul 22, 2011 - 11:00pm

Anyway, I hope most realize

I hope most realize this was an artificial close over 1600/40. Why else would we have had the strong rallye this afternoon with a close exactly a few cents above these targets? It's not that the EE couldn't just have jacked it down another dollar within 10 minutes or so, as they have done now repeatedly & proven repeatedly that they're capable of.

In other news, the COT is a little less bullish now (silver 39k net shorts vs the absolute low of this year of 29k net shorts 3 weeks ago), but still bullish. Anything over 50-60k will start to be less bullish, but there have been times when we were up to as far as 80k when the corrections began.

On options expiry, we haven't always seen corrections into these. During the last 12 months it has actually been more like 50:50. Just check prices at previous options expiries and see for yourself. For example in February and March we rallied hard just through options expiry.

Good weekend to everyone.

- Markus

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

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