Charting The Pig

101
Thu, Jul 21, 2011 - 9:56am

 All of the news out of Europe has sent ole Pigatha Christie tumbling this morning so I thought it might be time to give you some levels to watch in the POSX.

As I've often stated, I think the POSX is rangebound until the formal commencement of QE3. Yes, the dollar should be heading lower but euro concerns keep making it the "tallest midget". Until QE restarts, the yin and yang of these two forces will serve to keep things rangebound. That said, The Pig has been exploring the upper boundaries of its range for the past few weeks. Recent action suggests it may be ready to begin exploring the lower side, somewhere down near 74 and perhaps even 73.50. If anything, there looks to no longer be any concern of an upside breakout that could damage the precious metal trend.

paper_7-21ampig12.jpgpaper_7-21ampig2.jpg

The metals are quiet this morning. Gold lost some ground on the Europe news but is holding around 1600. Silver was well back above $40 at 4:00 am so the EE directed an early morning raid for the third straight day. It rests just below 40 at this moment but significantly above the 39.50 level that I continue to watch. Copper is down a little but crude is pushing 100! Keep a close eye on the greasy stuff today as a move through par will definitely add to the excitement in the PM pits.

Have a fun day! TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()
Does Feb19 Comex gold close above $1250 on Friday?
YES
77%
NO
23%
Total votes: 179

  101 Comments

Fortinbras · Jul 21, 2011 - 10:02am

No posts?

First? What do I win other than a bump in self-worth/importance/ego for a nano-second?!?!?!?!

SilverTree · Jul 21, 2011 - 10:02am
666 · Jul 21, 2011 - 10:06am

Hong kong silver starts tomorrow

It will take time to grow volume...there gold is doing only around 4000 lots a day.......but better it's there than not there

GoldMania3000 · Jul 21, 2011 - 10:08am

Stupidity

Can you believe there are so called "smart" people out there that don' t know what gold and silver are yet, in the US. With Gold 1600 people just don't get it. Why is that? Are they just focused on getting buy, getting ahead in their jobs, etc? I wonder what it will take for people to actually "get it." Is it gold at 2000 or 2500$?

Maybe everyone is just brainwashed. The Asians seem to get it, I guess this is why the US is considered "Stupid" around the world and why we are doomed. All the corporate people in their corporate jobs trying to figure out how to get their next promotion or just keeping their jobs, paying into their 401ks, buying blue chip stocks....what's going to happen too all these people?

I've been telling people about gold since 400$ and they see it going up over the years and they still don't get it or own PMs. the best performing asset (money) over the past 10 years and no one can figure it out. Too funny.....

Shill · Jul 21, 2011 - 10:16am

Lord help us all

The shills are trying too re-inflate the bubble

  1. 10:00a

    House prices rise 0.4% in May, FHFA says

  2. 10:00a

    House prices down 6.3% over past year, FHFA says

Dollar falling like a brick shit house and G&S just hang ticking lower. What a comical market place we live in.

· Jul 21, 2011 - 10:21am

Re: Stupidity

@PeaceSilver- one of the interesting things I've found is that no matter what the price of gold, whenever I try to talk to friends about investing they always say "Its too expensive". Always. Didn't matter that it was 700$, or later when I said "It's only 950$, this is the last chance you will have in your lifetime to buy gold in triple digits"... no matter. Too expensive at 1200, too expensive at 1600. It'll still be too expensive at 3000, and way too expensive at 5000. You can lead a horse to water but you can't make them think... or something like that.

tmosley · Jul 21, 2011 - 10:22am
paulindoon · Jul 21, 2011 - 10:22am

TF is EE watching yr wisdom

At 10:00 this morning Ag was @ 39.96. Then (was it an EE attack) they dropped it to 39.49 just 15 mins later. Gee TF, you have just got to stop giving the flying monkeys previews of your wisdom via " the 39.50 level that I continue to watch".

I am so LOOKING FORWARD to the opening of the Ag contract trading on HKExchange.

CaptainOverkill · Jul 21, 2011 - 10:23am

Response to Peace Silver

I sometimes find myself asking this question as well. The bottom line is most people really have no idea it is out there, and the few that do don't know how to get involved. The gold and silver markets are rather opaque to a newcomer (what do I buy, where do I buy, should I just get bullion or invest in numismatics, should I invest in paper gold, etc). It took me a few months to fully unravel these questions and I made some terrible newbie mistakes when I first started out. The average joe and jane have been trained to think of gold and silver as primarily jewelry and sort of a "luxury good." I have a friend who has been desperately trying to convince his parents to buy gold, because they have been buying things like US Savings Bonds for years to "put a little away for retirement." They seem oblivious to what is coming and say things like, "That can't possibly happen."

In short:

1. Most people don't really know the value of gold and silver and view it as a luxury good

2. Most people still broadly trust "the system" (even if they may dislike Congress or the president), otherwise they would stop putting money in their 401(k) and be buying the kinds of things we are.

3. Those that do get interested in gold and silver can be easily led astray given how confusing the market is for a beginner.

4. Those that do get interested are often dissuaded by investment advisors and the mainstream media, bulwarks of "conventional wisdom" which always dismiss gold.

This is why I do not believe we have yet entered a mania phase. Other than algos, certain hedge funds, and people like us, no one out there is really buying much gold and silver. When we start to experience serious inflation, that is going to change and then the predictions of gold $5000 might come true. Just keep stacking and wait for the "dumb money" to show up.

silver_hunter · Jul 21, 2011 - 10:26am

Re: stupidity

when POG hits 10k, people will start piling in, gimme, gimme that yellow brick. It's cheap, cheap. LOL

debtless · Jul 21, 2011 - 10:30am

The key psych barriers are

The key psych barriers are clearly $40 & $1,600 for an even S/G ratio of 40/1. 

ZSL - leverage short of silver at $40 can be had at $13.45 or so right now...and offset with AGQ until the battle goes one way or the other. 

* though long and strong phyz, playing the ETFs from day to day can be profitable. Especially when the lines in the sand are so clearly drawn. 

Luck to all players.

FalseParadigm · Jul 21, 2011 - 10:35am

Caution about HKMEX

Everyone is a bit TOO excited about the new silver contracts launching tomorrow.

Remember, they launched gold contracts back in May. EVERYONE was celebrating and thought that gold would EXPLODE to the upside. It didn't. We saw gold trend up to the $1550-1570 area only to fall down to $1480 a month after.

The LAST thing China wants is to allow silver (and gold) to rocket up. They're buying the dips aggresively right now. I expect HKMX to be more of the same. All it does is give Asia direct access to a physical market. But again I find it highly unlikely that the new exchange will propel silver up to $50+.



bullwhip29 · Jul 21, 2011 - 10:35am

Another raid coming?

Tuesday - Gang of 6 news = RAID

Thursday - announcement of EU/Greek rescue plan = RAID (again) ????? We'll know in about 3 hours or so... ;)

Bay of Pigs · Jul 21, 2011 - 10:40am

@Markus/Stoneeh

Yes, I stand corrected on that video claiming 50K contracts in one minute. If you had read my following posts I addressed that. I'll be more careful to quote others without checking the facts going forward. Sorry for the faulty information.

Regardless, I did email Chris Powell of GATA and he wrote me back, agreeing with me that manipulated raids like that have been going on for many years in both gold and silver. Please don't think for a second I'm some kind of wing nut going off around here. I was at the gold conference in Jan. 1999 in Vancouver, BC when GATA was formed, so I'm pretty well versed on anything concerning this topic.

Rui · Jul 21, 2011 - 10:42am

Greece 2Y bond yields

You are excused if you mistake it for gold and silver price in coming years. (Frome good OL' Casey Research).

Tesla · Jul 21, 2011 - 10:44am

Thanks Turd

Fun For Everyone (Almost)

taoJones · Jul 21, 2011 - 10:45am

if one were to start today...

An acquaintance has about $50K & wants to "invest" it. They have suggested real estate (Canadian) which I strongly discouraged (even though it's not as bad, yet, as the U.S. & elsewhere). I have read (here perhaps) that dollar cost averaging into gold/silver/miners is the way to go, even with a "large" sum like that. Is this a good way to go? If so, what form should it take? i.e. $5K of gold/silver/miners per month? And what ratio? I would appreciate any & all advice. Thanks in advance. And thank you Turd for this site, and the many here who inhabit it. Greatly appreciated!

stoneeh · Jul 21, 2011 - 10:46am

I hear ya, Bay of Pigs. -

I hear ya, Bay of Pigs.

- Markus

kliguy38 · Jul 21, 2011 - 10:51am

THANKS EE

Ya let me reload my traunche of PSLV I sold at the close last nite.........as long as the lights stay on there's a trade.......

gdogus · Jul 21, 2011 - 10:54am

free advice

I don't want to jinx it but it looks like we had a nice FUBM forming there after the bounce of the all-important 39.50 level. Come on $39.72 - hold!

Tao - in my opinion, your friend does not have 10 months to invest that $50k. Miners are cheap now. Take 10k and buy your favorite small producers and another 10k and buy junk silver (I like dimes). Then roll the rest into your favorite gold and silver bullion every week to dollar cost average. That will get them started quick just in case and all in within a few months. My .02.

stoneeh · Jul 21, 2011 - 10:58am

Re: Peace Silver

True.. well, in this day and age in this western society, we are programmed from birth. Unfortunately 99+% of people decide it's easiest for them to just go with the flow and ignore the injustice they witness on a day to day basis, not question what they don't want to know about anyway, and just be accepted and lead "normal" lives.

- Markus

stoneeh · Jul 21, 2011 - 10:59am

Sometimes

.. the seemingly simplest people can get it the most right though:

Colts' Daniel Muir on Ben Bernanke: "He Looks Like a Crook"

- Markus

Shill · Jul 21, 2011 - 11:01am

Market

Market rockets to 153 points, and GDX goes red on my screen. COMICAL!

Time for a brief stroll before I start smashing my monitor into little pieces.

· Jul 21, 2011 - 11:02am

Stoneeh- that one is golden

Perfect. I would give you 100 hat tips if I could. That is priceless.

· Jul 21, 2011 - 11:03am

if one were to start today...

@ taoJones

My .02 is that one might do the following:

  • 50% in gold (physical) 
  • 25% in silver (physical)
  • 20% in mining stocks (several sages on this website have advised us to get the paper shares in hand)
  • 5% in cash to buy put contracts (out of the money) to protect the silver, as needed.

I am heavily weighted in residential real estate, want to get out, but cannot sell. I expect real estate to continue down, except for Midwest tillable farmland. I don't want to trade any other securities in these whacky markets, unless its just playing with pocket change.

Tesla · Jul 21, 2011 - 11:04am

Haha Stoneeh!!!

"out to take everything you own B. S. Bernanke" YES!!!

WYO Silver · Jul 21, 2011 - 11:04am

Repost -- Response to Larry

Here's a repost to Larry concerning his post on Edelson's current UncommonWisdomDaily commentary (in Turd's prior column):

Larry,

I've followed Larry Edelson's commentary on the gold market for many years. I thank him for getting me interested in gold in 2001 and I've ridden the wave since then, learning a lot about the metals markets along the way. However, over the last year, I think his recos on gold/silver have been wrong more than right. He's a big supporter of cyclical analysis in the markets (short- and long-term). Last fall, his cycle analysis showed a correction coming in gold. It never materialized, as gold continued to surge. Larry's response was something along the lines of, "Wow, this gold market is stronger than I thought."

He's also a Johnny-Come-Lately on the silver side. I didn't see him getting interested in silver until after the big rallies had begun over the last 6-9 months. He was skeptical of silver and initially told his subscribers to short silver (ZSL). That didn't work too well as silver was rallying and anyone listening to him was stopped out fairly quickly. Edelson has also mentioned that a short-term drop down to $28 in silver isn't out of the cards. I believe Turd thinks that level is insane at this point.

Who knows how the markets are going to play out short-term, but I'd just like to throw this out there.

Trader · Jul 21, 2011 - 11:15am

Hey Turd, are you long any

Hey Turd, are you long any calls? 

zilverreiger · Jul 21, 2011 - 11:30am

wtf is wrong with euro gold,

wtf is wrong with euro gold, its going down? with greece in a default LOL

BASEBALL 13 · Jul 21, 2011 - 11:44am

Gold to the Moon...

Really, does anyone on this board think that gold will reach $5000oz AND the FEDs will let the public still buy/own it?

Obama already has the executive order signed and in his drawer...

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