Wrapping UP

Wed, Jul 20, 2011 - 3:29pm

Before we wrap up today, let's put the finishing touches on yesterday.

The chart below was posted in the comments last night. It pretty much tells you all you need to know about the Cartel's raid in silver yesterday. Overwhelming evidence such as this can only lead you to two conclusions about those that deny the existence of The Evil Empire and their detrimental effects/actions:

1) They are hopelessly naive and uninformed and therefore have no credibility. Frankly, these people should refrain from commenting on the PMs altogether and should stick to something about which they have some expertise.


2) They are simply a paid agent of disinformation. Get away from these people. Fast.


Whether the intention was simply to trim price or start a cascade like early May, it doesn't matter. Open interest in silver is currently 25% less than it was in late April. Once the waterfall starts, there simply are not enough weak-handed longs around to promulgate the decline. At this stage of the nascent rally/recovery from May-June, The Cartel can only hope to occasionally frighten. The likelihood that they can start a massive C/C/C (Cartel/Comex/CME) long liquidation similar to May is minimal.

And don't forget to make a mental note of the timing of the raid yesterday. By delaying until after the Comex close, not only did The Cartel make their transactions in the thinly-traded Globex, thus having greater effect, they also were able to place 50,000 new shorts that won't show up on this week's CoT report! They've now got until next Tuesday to cover their tracks. Definitely all part of their devious master plan.

OK, enough of that. Onto today. Very nice FUBMs have left us with a very clear technical picture. The charts below are self-explanatory. Yes, we could drop again as Blythe and The Monkeys are certainly capable of anything but I don't think we will. I think, instead, we'll be back above 1600 and 40 before the close on Friday.


Below is a chart I lifted from Trader Dan. It's such a great chart that you should print it and keep it as a roadmap for the move until year end. (By the way, Dan still posts on his blog from time to time so you should be sure to check it daily.)


I've mentioned repeatedly that strength in crude and copper will continue to reinforce the bid in the PM pits and nothing has changed in that regard. Despite yesterday's nonsense, ole DrC continues to impress and crude seems extremely resilient, much to the collective chagrin of The O'bottom Regime.


Lastly, I found this last night through another site but I don't remember which one. I don't know who this guy is and, frankly, I don't trust anyone from Colorado. However, Harvey likes to cite his work and this missive is certainly compelling.


"MONDAY, JULY 18, 2011
What To Look For In Advance Of The Big Collapse
I'm a bit short on time today and a commenter asked my views in the comment section about what "signs" in the market to look for in order to try and anticipate a systemic/dollar collapse in this country. He was referencing a view by "Another," an anonymous individual who started writing views on the global financial system back in the late 1990's. This person and a "friend of Another" were mapping out the demise of fiat currencies and the eventual collapse of the global financial system long before most of us even knew how to spell "gold" and "banking cartel." Anyway, you can read the inquiry comment in the comment section of yesterday's post and I kind of like what I wrote in the comment section in response, so I polished up that response and decided to post it:

I'm not sure if there will be definitive signs that will tell those watching for them that "it's over." Right now everything is in a slow-motion state of collapse dating back to probably the 1970's "oil crisis," but really to the closing of the gold window. Since then, starting with the junk bonds/S&L crisis, we've have successive bubbles and blow-ups, each one getting bigger and more vicious - each one a catalyst to transfer massive wealth from the middle class to the political and business elite.

I truly believe Clinton could have turned things around after the Long Term Capital collapse, but Rubin and the other puppet-master bankers/oil barons/defense industry magnates already had their hooks too deep into the Oval Office. Ironically, and I'm not the only one out "there" to remark on this, it was during the populist Clinton's Presidency that the extreme and blatant corruption we see on Wall Street and DC seems to have accelerated. Hell, Clinton himself barely had a pot to piss in when he entered the White House and now he's worth $100's of millions. I don't recall that ever happening to Harry Truman...You think that Clinton "self-made" that wealth? LOL

In terms of predicting "THE Event," I dunno. How many really wealthy people in Germany with billions in marks in the bank on November 13, 1923 thought they would wake up on November 14 to see their paper wealth literally incinerated? Surely "insiders" were looking for signs that the mark would collapse. The revaluation was 1 billion to 1. On November 13, 1923 if you had a billion marks in the bank when you went to bed, the next day when you woke up you had 1. Although the process of collapse is accelerating, the actual "Event" historically seems to happen all at once. And you have to be prepared a long time in advance in order to set up your plan of protection and you have to be prepared for the insanity to drag on a lot longer than you truly believe that it can.

I think this situation has more time to play out and I've stopped putting out timeframe predictions. For sure our country won't last as it is until 2020, probably not even 2015. But then again, I thought in 2002 that where we are now is where would be by 2006/7. They have run out of assets to bubble up, so now I think you'll eventually see wealth confiscation via retirement fund confiscations in the form of exchanges for "Government guaranteed" Treasury annuities. In fact, I said back in 2002 that our system would not collapse until the ruling elite (bankers/politicos) had swept every last crumb of middle class wealth off of the table. That "last crumb" of wealth most people have left is their retirement assets. We will also see the Government implement stronger totalitarian control over the citizens (that's happening already).

Think I'm nuts? The concept of the Government taking over the retirement fund system has already been discussed in Congress, including an academic presentation to Congress back 2008. They'll need those assets to pay for the Government spending and they'll issue Treasury bonds in exchange. Most States have already done that with State employee pension plans and the Federal Government has already done that with the funds in the Social Security Trust and they started doing that a few weeks ago with the Federal pension assets (to the tune of a couple hundred billion). Expect that gameplan to eventually expand into all retirement asset plans public and private. As they lose control of the ability of the global financial system to finance the Government and lose control of the value of the dollar and the value of precious metals, the Government will impose its political will more forcefully on the citizens. The ability to make all of this happen has already been legislated via the Patriot Acts (1 and 2), the Homeland Security Act and the Detainee Bill.

The only way to avoid this is to leave the country, which people are doing in record numbers every year. Owning gold and silver will help a lot if you stay here, because you want to move as much as you can out of paper assets and out of "the system" and into gold and silver and out of the Government's ever-expanding "reach." We could well see the black market scenario to which Another refers because once the dollar/system actually collapses, there won't be much gold/silver for sale, as those who don't have it but have goods to offer will only accept gold/silver in exchange and those who do own it will hold onto it to trade for things they need. In the best-case scenario after the collapse, a new system of gold/silver-backed currency will quickly fill in the "vacuum" left by the collapse and that will help restore a more "normalized" system of commerce. The worst case scenario? Read "The Road" by Cormac McCarthy.

Before that, I bet we see at least $10k gold and $500 silver..."

That's likely it for today. Keep the faith. We are winning! TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


treefrog · Jul 20, 2011 - 3:37pm

forty dollars!

forty dollars!

(edit - first! that's a nice omen just when silver clears the hurdle - again!)

Rui · Jul 20, 2011 - 3:39pm

Peter Schiff: Imagine an Obama speech on debt

A two-year old video. Just for fun:

Peter Schiff: An Obama Speech, Debt and China
silver foil hat · Jul 20, 2011 - 3:44pm

How banks work, eloquently explained transferred from last entry

(time code link does not work, you need to skip to 2:45 on this one:)


and (jump to 6:55 if time link does not work)


links from the BBC show CHEF!

..and he isn't as stupid about money (fiat, anyway) as he claims to be. Seems like he has it right.

whiteytighty · Jul 20, 2011 - 3:45pm


Dear Turd,

I have been a regular lurker/reader of your blog for many months. I have never had the urge to post until today. 
Reading that you 'don't trust anyone from Colorado', not only cuts deep, but perhaps is an indication that you need to broaden your horizons. You have a big fan base here in Colorado, but we can turn nasty at the drop of a hat. (even if it is a huge yellow one) We've even been known to step in a few turds, and we always come loaded with lots of silver bullets.

You don't know what your missing,


SilverTree · Jul 20, 2011 - 3:50pm

ok, I give up

ok, I give up

Dr G · Jul 20, 2011 - 3:50pm

Thanks to Turd posting the

Thanks to Turd for reposting the price of silver/volume chart I posted in the comments yesterday. It may be the only good thing I ever contribute to this forum. Although we've seen it time and time again, I'm ALWAYS amazed by the volume we see when those waterfalls begin. Just an enormous amount of money/contracts being played with during those waterfalls. And obviously coming out of thin air as well. Hence the trouble with paper metals.

Turd, thanks for all you do. Hope the yogurt shop is going well. Many hat tips to you, my friend.

(Besides TF metals, one of my favorite moments of the week is listening to Sinclair and Trader Dan on the KWN weekly metals wrap. How lucky we are to be members of this community!).

RedRover · Jul 20, 2011 - 3:50pm

August Gold & Silver Options Expiration Date (7/26)

Hi Turd, et al:

Was reading a blog response here, the other day & it brought me to a link from Jesse's American Cafe (https://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/). He showed us some pretty cool charts & showed recent history of Gold & Silver pulling down, right around options expiration dates. So, we're got the August Gold & Silver expiration date approaching on Tuesday. I am anticipating a down day (for closing), that day.


I am a long-term bull. However, I put weight on the comments from people that are saying that BM wants to make sure SILVER is as low as possible, before the QE 3 starts. I wonder how soon they will introduce QE 3, once it's approved (understanding the value of creative destruction, for them).

Seems to be all about timing & finding the low, before a run (this fall). I watched that Brother John F video, where he shows the 10 billion dollars put into shorts.. to keep the market down (in one minutes time). That's a ton of money. Has BM used that volume fire power previously?

Interesting times.

lottiedah · Jul 20, 2011 - 3:50pm

Thanks, Steve and Friends

Thought we could speak as adults. Not interested in being a part of your melodrama. No twittering necessary.

Bravo. Though, be sure to keep your day jobs. 

· Jul 20, 2011 - 3:52pm

Hookers and Blow, for REAL!!

Copied from last thread.

Seriously, I would not have believed it had I not read this with my own eyes. (from zerohedge)

I wonder who is on the John list . . .

Man, this is getting GOOD!

rz · Jul 20, 2011 - 3:53pm


interesting thing about those EE waterfalls is they often seem to occur in two steps separated by about 30 min or so - presumably the monkeys want to make it more likely that the price will stay down, and get "stuck" at the midway on the way up again.

Also for those who haven't seen waterfalls happening in real-time, they occur as many, rapidfire, small (ish) trades, rather than a few large volume trades one occasionally sees going both up and down. Quite scary to see! But also quite a lot less scary since a large part of the lemming trade Turd mentioned is now out (the 25% open interest).

MisesFan · Jul 20, 2011 - 3:53pm

re: CO

Turd - you must not enjoy world class powder turns, tasty mirco brews, hot springs, alpine lakes, hiking, camping, fly fishing, rafting, kayaking, climbing, etc. CO is a truly special place. My wife and I were engaged in Steamboat (Rabbit Ears Pass), and married at Grand Lake (Point Park).....and we would not have it any other way.

Back to business.....how about that close?...$39.80 was providing resistance.

Denver · Jul 20, 2011 - 4:03pm


I'm not Dave but I am a fan.

Colorado is a great state, especially west of the divide.

I can understand your sentiment Turd however your scope is much narrower than mine. I can count the ones I trust on one hand in all 50.

You and the Bacon Meister are 2 of them.

exiledbear · Jul 20, 2011 - 4:05pm

Law of diminshing returns

Open interest in silver is currently 25% less than it was in late April. Once the waterfall starts, there simply are not enough weak-handed longs around to promulgate the decline. At this stage of the nascent rally/recovery from May-June, The Cartel can only hope to occasionally frighten. The likelihood that they can start a massive C/C/C (Cartel/Comex/CME) long liquidation similar to May is minimal.

And that's the price they paid for hiking margins, and it's the price they pay every time they do it - they strengthen the remaining hands in the market. If they do it enough times, they strengthen what hands remain so much that they can't influence their behavior anymore.

One day, they'll pull a cute little stunt like they did in May and the market won't even notice them. I hope they can heal themselves through the damage that will follow.

If our present economy is built on bringing future earnings into the present, the PM markets are built on pushing present gains out into the future.

scone · Jul 20, 2011 - 4:11pm

all anyone need do

is listen to a John Denver song to know why Coloradoans are not to be trusted 

exiledbear · Jul 20, 2011 - 4:12pm

I had a dream day before yesterday

Before that, I bet we see at least $10k gold

Where I was watching a ticker that had a gold price of $32345. I don't think $10k is nutty enough before this bull market ends. Think nuttier™

Western · Jul 20, 2011 - 4:16pm

Good read

Great post!

Besides being a part time university student (ugh yeah I know, useless diploma but it's almost done), I work for the government in liquor distribution. Scotch will DEFINITELY appreciate in value and be sought after barter commodity! That's right I'm loading up on scotch.

Onto the weak hands vs. strong hands argument on the inability to cause a waterfall price drop.. HFT algos are ramping up and flash crashing prices in the stock market, I don't see why JPM and HSBC couldn't do that on the futures/commodities markets since the cartel is literally an order of magnitude stronger than the rest of the players.

Dr G · Jul 20, 2011 - 4:16pm

Had to post this. Not

Had to post this. Not directly related to the discussion, but related to the MSM:

A MSNBC talking head asks a Congressman if he has a degree in economics. Turns out his received a double major from Duke, and one was economics. Highest honors in economics, now that you mention it. So yes, he DOES have a degree in economics. Maybe they should do research on who they are interviewing. Nah, wouldn't matter anyway, would only confuse the sheeple.


whiteytighty · Jul 20, 2011 - 4:23pm


This isn't an English as a second language forum.

rckymtn · Jul 20, 2011 - 4:28pm

Hey now easy on the people

Hey now easy on the people from Colorado we aren't all stupid hippie liberals that love obama

bensgone · Jul 20, 2011 - 4:29pm

Cartel Physical Crisis #7 – Literally, in Physical Crisis Mode

Ranting Andy: On Queue, Cartel Physical Crisis #7 – Literally, in Physical Crisis Mode Every Day Now!

I have fought this war since May 2002, and will not lose to a bunch of morons in Washington and on Wall Street, and particularly a bunch of U.K. arse-lickers – NEVER! 

Nor will I let the minds of my readers be corrupted by the mindless drivel set forth by TPTB, coincident with Cartel ATTACKS, to try and prevent them from PROTECTING THEMSELVES from the rapidly oncoming hyperinflation that will destroy essentially everything in its path.

I’d say today’s attack was “carefully orchestrated”, but it really wasn’t given that the Cartel is now in FULL-TIME GOLD AND SILVER PHYSICAL CRISIS MODE. Perhaps the SUNDAY NIGHT PAPER SILVER MASSACRE on May 1st, replete with BULLSH-T bin Laden death news, was carefully orchestrated….

…but then again, during May, or just two months ago, PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER CRISES didn’t occur every day!


kenklave · Jul 20, 2011 - 4:31pm

Colorado.  Just classic.  One

Colorado. Just classic. One giant yellow hat tip, sir.

treefrog · Jul 20, 2011 - 4:31pm


here we are back about where we were about thirty hours ago. what a difference a day makes ...not.

silver foil hat · Jul 20, 2011 - 4:32pm
question · Jul 20, 2011 - 4:44pm

Hookers and Blow, for REAL!!

California Lawyer;

Just another tumor on the body of this decaying empire. Hookers and blow crimes? NOT

Stealing and ethical corruption crimes? YES

I'm just happy I was able to get a couple of younger friends I worked with to buy some silver and start paying attention. Hope in small things.

The sheep look up and are not fed

Outfitter California Lawyer · Jul 20, 2011 - 4:45pm

When the elite start eating

When the elite start eating their own, you know things are speeding up fast.

Pass the popcorn and lets pop open a beer!

Shill · Jul 20, 2011 - 4:58pm


Lastly, I found this last night through another site but I don't remember which one. I don't know who this guy is and, frankly, I don't trust anyone from Colorado. However, Harvey likes to cite his work and this missive is certainly compelling.

With all due respect Turd, Denver Dave is very good friends with Arthur Cutten AKA Jesse's Café Américain Dave is a very well respected PM investor who has his own Fund and is a top notch guy. His writings are truthful and actually quite good, so I am glad you found him. I've been a follower of The Golden Truth for quiet sometime, as well as a long time poster under the name Bill.

I post there often.

scone · Jul 20, 2011 - 4:58pm

the mother of all bull markets

[SNIP] "I think you can pick out any hundred people walking in the street, look at their investment portfolios and very few of them have any exposure to gold and silver yet these markets have done incredibly well. That tells me that we’re not even close to the top because we don’t have that universal participation that happens at the end of all great bull markets."

Michael Campbell interviews Peter Grandich

kliguy38 · Jul 20, 2011 - 5:06pm

TURD ....you're getting warm

The composition of the EE is the ultimate end game of the "conspiracy".......they have remained relatively anonymous for many years now. They have no interest in recognition and shun publicity. They work through their third parties.........and use more public conduits like the Rubins Bernanks Geithners etc. to exercise their will. They have been the shadow government for many decades and have grown much stronger to the point that they are untouchable. Only nature can rearrange the deck chairs on the Titanic now. enjoy the crumbs they throw us.....they are preparing for the next big "thing"

bobby Shill · Jul 20, 2011 - 5:09pm

shill wrote

I've been a follower of The Golden Truth for quiet sometime,


did someone say something earlier about this not being an English as Second Language board?

I too read Denver Dave and enjoy his work. So does my good friend Jesse. We can't post at one, which is fine by me. And the other I posted once and it never appeared.

That was quite some time ago.

maravich44 · Jul 20, 2011 - 5:10pm


I made an effort to clue one of my brothers in on Silver investment and he could not grasp it, much $'s in 401K mutual funds. Until the 401s and IRA's are demolished, enlightenment will come slowly for many.

Notice: If you do not see your new comment immediately, do not be alarmed. We are currently refreshing new comments approximately every 2 minutes to better manage performance while working on other issues. Thank you for your patience.

Become a gold member and subscribe to Turd's Vault


Donate  Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events week of 12/10

12/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
12/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
12/13 8:30 ET Import Price Index
12/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
12/14 9:15 ET Industrial Prod. and Cap. Utilization
12/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events week of 11/26

11/27 9:00 ET Case-Schiller home prices
11/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
11/28 8:30 ET Q3 GDP 2nd guess
11/28 10:00 ET New home sales
11/29 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
11/29 10:00 ET Pending home sales
11/29 2:00 ET November FOMC minutes

Key Economic Events week of 11/19

11/20 8:30 ET Housing Starts
11/21 8:30 ET Durable Goods
11/21 10:00 ET UMich Sentiment
11/21 10:00 ET LEIII
11/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Recent Comments

by abundance, Dec 10, 2018 - 11:53pm
by atarangi, Dec 10, 2018 - 11:48pm
by lakedweller2, Dec 10, 2018 - 9:39pm
by Turd Ferguson, Dec 10, 2018 - 9:24pm
by scoremore, Dec 10, 2018 - 9:11pm