Random Musings (updated)

Mon, Jul 18, 2011 - 6:01pm

As we wrap a fun, fun day, just a couple of random items.

1) It appears that the latest winner of a "Turd Hat" is "dani" from the old site. "dani", if you're out there, please send me an email with your mailing address and I'll put it in the mail.

2) Silver just looks fantastic and there's still plenty of room to run. When silver was peaking in late April, the total open interest on the Comex was around 145,000 contracts. As of Friday, total open interest was only 115,000. That alone should leave you with the impression that silver is going to back to $48-50. Take a look at the chart below and your confidence will only increase.

3) The "debt ceiling talks" are an absolute joke. The House schedules a charade vote simply to get themselves "on the record" as trying to restrain spending. Of course, it would never, ever get past the Senate and/or the Regime. But that doesn't matter. What does matter is giving "political cover" to the worthless, first-term republocrats who rode into office last year on a Tea Party wave. In the end, President O'bottom will raise the debt ceiling by Executive Order. What? You don't think he can do that? Hmmm...Google "War Powers Act" and get back to me. The Regime doesn't care about the Rule of Law or The Constitution. Never forget that, with socialists, the ends always justify the means. The real question you need to answer is: "When the debt ceiling is raised by $2T or so, from where will the federal government get their $2T"? Answer that and you'll have your answer as to why the precious metals are soaring to new highs.

4) Do you remember this post from three weeks ago? https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/1395/paging-dr-c If you missed it at the time, I highly suggest you take time to read it now. The copper chart below looks great and appears to be headed higher again very soon. This would have significant implications on future PM price. Watch ole Dr C very closely this week.

5) I love the PMs right now but I really wish I had some corn on. The chart is compelling and soon the USDA will certainly "revise" their BS acreage numbers from last month. Oh, and did I mention it's hot as hell with no end in sight throughout the Corn Belt?

6) Again, please refrain from "self hat-tipping". The hat tip is our only measure of poster competence and self-congratulation ruins its validity. Thanks for your help with this.

7) Also, please be careful about copy-and-pasting full text from other sites. Links are great and A-OK. Full text runs into copyright restrictions and causes other sites to get all bent out of shape. Again, thanks with this.

8) Later this week we'll be posting a survey of possible site improvements. It will offer you a choice of several, reader-suggested improvements we could make. I will then need to run a "pledge drive" thru the donate button to help defray the cost. In the meantime, please always remember to fully consider our "sponsors".

OK, that's all for now. Here are some very tasty charts for your enjoyment. See you tomorrow! TF

10:30 am EDT Tuesday UPDATE:

The Evil Empire is trying their hardest to raid today but with copper, crude, stocks and grains all up, they're just not having any success at all. IF everything else can hold onto their gains for another hour or so, the EE will be forced to retreat to another day and the PMS will roll back up toward their overnight highs. Don't get ahead of yourself, however. The Forces of Darkness have accidentally "tipped their hand" this morning with the ineffective raids. This only means they are certain to try again as soon when conditions seem more favorable on their end.

Just a word about copper. If you go up and zoom in on the chart above, you can clearly see that today's action is a breakout of the last 10 days of action. This is a very positive development for the future price of the PMs. Copper now looks to be headed next to the area around 456. You might give it a week or so but this should invariably confirm that gold is indeed headed to 1650 and silver to 42.50.

More after the close. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Jul 18, 2011 - 8:13pm

"Any experts here have looked

"Any experts here have looked at a calender and see when the next coordinated takedown of silver will occur? Any Monday Holidays, elections, for example or will they wait for a natural catastrophe or a funeral? Or a big slide in the stock market? Any thoughts?"

Forget about trying to time the market. No person got rich off doing that. If the fundamentals are right, as they are right now, in every way (at least in silver, in gold too but not so much), buy and sit tight.

Just as Livermore said, the fewest people can buy right and sit tight. I was noticing it during the last 2 months. The fundamentals were so screamingly positive, yet noone dared touch the stuff. People only dared to come in when prices rose (while fundamentals remained unchanged or even got a little less bullish) and now we have the full blown enthusiasm again that we saw on the last move towards 50$. Everyone is cheerleading, "buy buy buy".

Don't make the mistake of buying just because others buy and prices rise, OR timing the market on technicals - trust the fundamentals and buy when they are positive and sell when they are no longer positive (I hope we all live that long ).

- Markus

FogHorn LegHorn
Jul 18, 2011 - 8:22pm

next ee raid? spec and fcd

The EE has had its war chest severely diminished because the ESF is not being funded by the treasury dept. because of the debt ceiling as per tyler at zh. Harvey mentions it in his blog tonight.Aug 2 this ESF will undoughtably be filled up and ready to pound the shit out of pms. Futures/options on the comex expires the last week of the month. I' ll look it up in a minute get back to ya.

Turdle GG
Jul 18, 2011 - 8:39pm
Jul 18, 2011 - 8:42pm
Fred C Dobbsstoneeh
Jul 18, 2011 - 8:42pm

Not trying to time the market to buy

I have lots of gold, silver and miners. It's just the last take down date in silver looks fairly obvious in retrospect. The next one, and we know it's coming, maybe obvious to the more well informed too. When is the next big Chinese holiday on a Monday?

Jul 18, 2011 - 9:04pm

Can anyone name a silver bear?

There is only one thing that bugs me a little about silver right now....

In the usual group of silver market analyst's who are NOT always bearish (i.e. excluding Nadler, mainstream news people etc), can anyone name a single person who is not bullish right now?

Not that being contrarian always works (for example if you take a contrarian view of gravity your bet on upward falling apples likely won't pay off), but it is certainly a note of caution when everyone is thinking the same thing.

Jul 18, 2011 - 9:06pm

Thanks Turd and

fellow Turdites...

Lets see what tonight and tomorrow brings...I bet tomorrow regardless whether PMs move up - the world financials will be worse...PMs will take care of themselves don't worry:)

History is repeating itself...

There is nothing new under the Sun.

Homage to Turd...

Burt Reynolds in Large Cowboy Hat


Jul 18, 2011 - 9:12pm

pforth, Who in their right


Who in their right mind was really bearish 2 weeks ago? Maybe short-term they were scared of the market --- but truly bearish? Nah.

Gold n Silver are going to DO their thang in their own timing regardless of us or other newsletter writers. This game is being controlled at the central bank level at the moment and us traders are along for the ride.

Jul 18, 2011 - 9:13pm


What do you all think of these 2 chart snapshots I just did up?

This is an 8 hour chart...After putting in the lines I started seeing things...not because of what you think...well, maybe it's just the Rum talking. But you can clearly see the parallels. Is this nothing? Just curious what everyone else thinks.

If we use Turd's white-out just as before on the big-top blow-off to almost 50 in April/May and follow that upward channel towards January 2012 then it keeps silver at that same point just under 50/oz.

Each vertical line came to about a 5 month spread, so the next 5 month vertical would come sometime towards the end of December and doesn't breach 50/oz. Early December shows about 48/oz. Now maybe another big spike will occur in between now and then like what happened in April/May, but who knows?

And the top of both downward trending lines are also about 5 months apart just like the vertical lines. Does anyone see anything to it or is it just all this good Rum? LOL

Well...just trying to see if I can use some skills I may have learned from the Great Turd.

I, for one, would like very much if silver was still under 50 by January whether we have another huge big-top prior to that at 50/oz or not. It would allow me to trade more zombie Bernankies in for phyzz even that much longer. And it would allow some other people who are still waking up to get in the game before it's way too late.

If you look at what silver did last year going from November to January, it peaked in early November, then dropped...then peaked a little higher in early December, then dropped...then peaked a little higher in early January, then dropped to Turd's bottom.

Maybe sometime in December will be the next top to 49 or 50 which will cause another awesome BTFD opportunity going in to January 2012??? I sure wouldn't mind so that I could continue stacking it up.

Any input/opinions much appreciated!!!

Does anyone think we see any chances of this same kind of pattern going into next year like this?

Thanks all!

Jul 18, 2011 - 9:14pm

The Ledgend! :)

Turd Ferguson - That's your opinion

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