Random Musings (updated)

Mon, Jul 18, 2011 - 6:01pm

As we wrap a fun, fun day, just a couple of random items.

1) It appears that the latest winner of a "Turd Hat" is "dani" from the old site. "dani", if you're out there, please send me an email with your mailing address and I'll put it in the mail.

2) Silver just looks fantastic and there's still plenty of room to run. When silver was peaking in late April, the total open interest on the Comex was around 145,000 contracts. As of Friday, total open interest was only 115,000. That alone should leave you with the impression that silver is going to back to $48-50. Take a look at the chart below and your confidence will only increase.

3) The "debt ceiling talks" are an absolute joke. The House schedules a charade vote simply to get themselves "on the record" as trying to restrain spending. Of course, it would never, ever get past the Senate and/or the Regime. But that doesn't matter. What does matter is giving "political cover" to the worthless, first-term republocrats who rode into office last year on a Tea Party wave. In the end, President O'bottom will raise the debt ceiling by Executive Order. What? You don't think he can do that? Hmmm...Google "War Powers Act" and get back to me. The Regime doesn't care about the Rule of Law or The Constitution. Never forget that, with socialists, the ends always justify the means. The real question you need to answer is: "When the debt ceiling is raised by $2T or so, from where will the federal government get their $2T"? Answer that and you'll have your answer as to why the precious metals are soaring to new highs.

4) Do you remember this post from three weeks ago? https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/1395/paging-dr-c If you missed it at the time, I highly suggest you take time to read it now. The copper chart below looks great and appears to be headed higher again very soon. This would have significant implications on future PM price. Watch ole Dr C very closely this week.

5) I love the PMs right now but I really wish I had some corn on. The chart is compelling and soon the USDA will certainly "revise" their BS acreage numbers from last month. Oh, and did I mention it's hot as hell with no end in sight throughout the Corn Belt?

6) Again, please refrain from "self hat-tipping". The hat tip is our only measure of poster competence and self-congratulation ruins its validity. Thanks for your help with this.

7) Also, please be careful about copy-and-pasting full text from other sites. Links are great and A-OK. Full text runs into copyright restrictions and causes other sites to get all bent out of shape. Again, thanks with this.

8) Later this week we'll be posting a survey of possible site improvements. It will offer you a choice of several, reader-suggested improvements we could make. I will then need to run a "pledge drive" thru the donate button to help defray the cost. In the meantime, please always remember to fully consider our "sponsors".

OK, that's all for now. Here are some very tasty charts for your enjoyment. See you tomorrow! TF

10:30 am EDT Tuesday UPDATE:

The Evil Empire is trying their hardest to raid today but with copper, crude, stocks and grains all up, they're just not having any success at all. IF everything else can hold onto their gains for another hour or so, the EE will be forced to retreat to another day and the PMS will roll back up toward their overnight highs. Don't get ahead of yourself, however. The Forces of Darkness have accidentally "tipped their hand" this morning with the ineffective raids. This only means they are certain to try again as soon when conditions seem more favorable on their end.

Just a word about copper. If you go up and zoom in on the chart above, you can clearly see that today's action is a breakout of the last 10 days of action. This is a very positive development for the future price of the PMs. Copper now looks to be headed next to the area around 456. You might give it a week or so but this should invariably confirm that gold is indeed headed to 1650 and silver to 42.50.

More after the close. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Jul 18, 2011 - 6:10pm

hi ho hi ho

go u good thing

Jul 18, 2011 - 6:13pm

US gov't seize Ag

My bet is Ag will be nationalised/confiscated by Nov 2011.

Jul 18, 2011 - 6:18pm

Turd RULES! Thank you Turd!!!

Thanks for keeping us in the game!

Economical Disaster
Jul 18, 2011 - 6:30pm


Just wanted to thank Santa..This guy says also says $1700 GOLD really soon..says NO hope for the fiat fiasco. 20 yr cycle.


Jul 18, 2011 - 6:31pm

Short-covering has therefore been assisting the recent silver ra

Short-covering has therefore been assisting the recent silver rally towards $40 and this most recent move may yet prove to be deceptive. The silver market is still nervous and while the US' economy stutters and Europe labours under the threat of debt contagion it is likely to remain so.



Economical Disaster donnojackshit
Jul 18, 2011 - 6:32pm

Seizing GOLD---->DOUBT IT

I highly doubt a PHYSICAL GOLD seizure, not enough of us minions in GOLD to make a difference. Most in PAPER..

Jul 18, 2011 - 6:39pm

Das Hat

Das Hat is coming home!!! :) Thanks a lot TF!!

Yooper Rick
Jul 18, 2011 - 6:42pm

5% would be 15 m. I don't

5% would be 15 m. I don't think so.

Jul 18, 2011 - 6:49pm


Sorry to be so slow, but what is MOPE, again?

Yooper Rick
Jul 18, 2011 - 6:49pm

EconDisaster...when the

EconDisaster...when the masses head for the exits "they" will simply make it illegal to buy or sell, in self defense.

Jul 18, 2011 - 6:50pm

Good Stuff Turd!

Talking w/ a young friend of mine (21yrs old) about Fiat Currency and PMs... He said

" I made a good amount of money working today... but if I was paid in Gold, I wouldn't have much for my days labor!?" Then he said "wow that would suck, I WOULDN"T WANT TO WORK FOR JUST THAT LITTLE BIT OF GOLD!

Can anyone say M.O.P.E.!!?


Look at what all the Metals have been doing past few years. There was an Outbreak of Catalytic Converters being stolen off Brand New Trucks at local Deals... Contain Platinum.

Copper thefts Of pipes and roofing.

Even Junk Autos became of value as Price of steel went up greatly. Even small cars bring several hundred, to Pick up trucks as much as 500$ just to be crushed and recycled....

Physical is Physical and Paper is Paper!

FogHorn LegHorn
Jul 18, 2011 - 6:52pm

As always excellent commentary tf

It feels good to see green on the screen! That" May" thing really bit the hippo weeny!! I toughed out that horse pucky, adding margin and selling now very profitable options at 30 cents on the dollar.Tough slog, but lived to play another day.To the deacon of beacon thanks for the photon beam :)

Bay of Pigs
Jul 18, 2011 - 6:56pm


The guest Mark Leibovit blew those two reporters away. Marty Cej is a complete joke on BNN. He's constantly talking about the big "risk" with gold and never about the fundo's, and long term trends. His partner Frances Horodelski isn't much better.

They act like everyone and his mother is in gold, and nothing could be farther from the truth, IMO. Very few people own any gold at all. 2-3% tops (oops, edit from 5% to 3% my mistake). In other words, not many people considering the hype on financial TV about a "bubble" in PM's.

Fred C Dobbs
Jul 18, 2011 - 6:57pm

posted this on zerohedge

Any experts here have looked at a calender and see when the next coordinated takedown of silver will occur? Any Monday Holidays, elections, for example or will they wait for a natural catastrophe or a funeral? Or a big slide in the stock market? Any thoughts?

Jul 18, 2011 - 6:58pm

MOPE = Manipulation Of Perceived Economics

Welcome to acronym soup - I made up some of my own definitions for a while until I found out what the real ones were.

(I thought TPTB meant Too Big To Bankrupt for a while - hah!)

Jul 18, 2011 - 6:59pm


Have to disagree with Turd about Obottom. Its a misconception that he is a 'socailist'. Hardly. He is a Harvard-inculcated corporatist. He sides always with corporate welfare programs. He peoples his entire cabinet with crony capitalists. If in this sense you mean he's a socailist then fine, but this con is not a man of the people. He is a weird guy who's background is incredibly shady and secretive and more than likely includes bisexuality. He could care less for the little guy or the people.

Obottom is a socialist welfare supporter for the two biggest welfare hogs in the country, the Military-Corporate complex and Banking.

WYO Silver
Jul 18, 2011 - 7:03pm

KISS -- A Rocket Ride?

A warning from those shameless silver cheerleaders:

"Lady Space, you better wake up fast,

Countdown is coming on,

Take a Rocket Ride.

The gravity that used to hold you down,

Just don't exist no more,

Take a Rocket Ride."

(Turd golfin' buddy Ace Frehley on vocals.) TURN IT UP!

Kiss - Rocket Ride
Jul 18, 2011 - 7:06pm

Bullish Copper Technicals


Bullish Copper Technicals

Copper is growing increasingly popular among speculators, who are catapulting this unassuming base metal up into the rarified ranks of market-darling commodities. Neither precious like gold, nor immediately consumed like oil, copper's price action is quite unique. And despite some risky headwinds remaining, its technicals are once again turning bullish today.

I last wrote about copper in mid-February, as it hit new all-time highs of $4.60 per pound. My essay then concluded, "The bottom line is copper is due for a major correction. Sentiment in this metal is wildly bullish thanks to its recent massive upleg and new all-time highs. Copper is very overbought technically, it has rallied too far too fast by its own bull-to-date standards. And it has ignored a major trend change in its LME stockpiles in order to follow the stock markets higher."

This contrarian prediction came to pass. In the 5 months or so since, copper has not only failed to regain those lofty heights but has indeed corrected. Over several months ending in mid-May this base metal gradually ground 15.9% lower. It surrendered nearly 1/6th of its value in the global marketplace! Copper needed to correct for the reasons I articulated in mid-February, and the selling arrived as expected.

Jul 18, 2011 - 7:10pm

$HUI and miners

$HUI shows solid support at 527......inverse HnS with a target of 650.......should correlate nicely with a high in gold of over 1700 and silver over 50. Enjoy the ride. I tend to miss most of the runs to the top and play a fairly conservative game but if you were lucky enough to have accumulated the miners like SLW AG EXK ANV SSRI during the last takedown then you can take some profit here and hope for a pullback. Keep some for the big ride up if you have balls.....gl all Now you know what I was talking about on the miners when I mentioned they wanted you OUT of the trade.....they took your weak hand shares ....

Jul 18, 2011 - 7:14pm

I'm seeing a possible solution here...

Here's a suggestion about some needed maintenance...

  1. Sell "Turd Hats" at a luscious premium.
  2. Use proceeds to install self-hat tipping prevention measures.

I'm a buyer!

Bay of Pigs
Jul 18, 2011 - 7:16pm


It is "Management Of Perception Economics" (Jim Sinclair)

Edit: Wow, just checked his site. I've seen it used both ways. Sounds good, as both are correct.

speconomist Fred C Dobbs
Jul 18, 2011 - 7:21pm

 Fred C Dobbs on July 19,

Fred C Dobbs on July 19, 2011 - 12:57am. Any experts here have looked at a calender and see when the next coordinated takedown of silver will occur? Any Monday Holidays, elections, for example or will they wait for a natural catastrophe or a funeral? Or a big slide in the stock market? Any thoughts?


Really interesting for all of us, also in addition to that, if someone knows when contracts are expiring, or wouldn't mind explaining again how prices evolve until contracts expire, therefore affecting the fluctuations let us know please.

Jul 18, 2011 - 7:24pm

Thanks Bay

Terribly sorry if I caused you confusion CIRRUSCX!

Bay Of Pigs I stand humbly (educated) and corrected! I think yours is the officially correct version.

Jul 18, 2011 - 7:34pm

POSX Dropping

Dropping like a rock right at 7:00 p.m.

We've seen the PM's rise mostly with a USD thats been mostly rising lately. It will be interesting to see how the PM's react when it starts to drop again.

We may soon find out.

Jul 18, 2011 - 7:46pm

Yellow Hats...

Turd, who do you buy your yellow hats from? I'm going long yellow hats. You may have single-handedly revived the yellow foam hat industry. This could be a gold mine, so to speak, lol

I'll tell you what...I've watch all your Wicked Witch videos and SGS's Silver Bears videos over again tonight.

First of all, if anyone hasn't watched them all, they're missing out big time. They're hilarious at times, but the info in them is excellent, and amazingly accurate. You guys are good.

Secondly, for those who are new to your site, you should have a spot like the Turdisms area for all your videos. Unless I've totally missed it I don't think you incorporated the videos on the site. Is that because of your youtube channel? There should at least be a very visible link to them somewhere on here for all the newbs, because they can learn a whole lot and laugh their asses off at the same time like I just did all over again.

So for anyone who doesn't know where to find them, here's Turd's Youtube channel link: This is the first video in the series: https://www.youtube.com/user/TFMetals#p/u/8/9FGVtJRWP6k

Jul 18, 2011 - 7:49pm

Thanks TD

Thanks for the Charts TD ....where General Jim Sinclair gives us the big hitting numbers you give us the (tradeable) daily details

I used to be a subscriber to Rob Prechters Elliott Wave... these morons were wrong every week of every month throughout 2010, i missed making a small fortune in fact i lost money and was very lucky not to lose it all due to their totally incompetent predictions on Gold, Silver, USD/Euro and all the US and European Stock Indexes

Elliott Wave are a total fraud... Prechter tries to cobble this tragedy together using every other techinique under the sun (MacD, sentiment, Fibbonichi etc etc) and it still has a failure rate over 90% (worse than a 50/50 coin toss)

i've just made some money in PM's because of listening to you and Gerneral Jim. Soon as rid myself of positions shorting the Indexes (a legacy of the Prechter idiot loons) a donation will on its merry way to 'Feed the Turd'

Can't speak highly enough about you and Jim

FogHorn LegHorn
Jul 18, 2011 - 7:52pm

comex expiry

https://www.ccstrade.com/futures/gc/exp/ double post oops.Just click on the link.

Jul 18, 2011 - 7:56pm

My Turd Suggestion (not a speech impediment)

No...I'm not talking about toilet paper or Diapers etc.

Hats, shirts, coffee mugs etc. would be great. I hope TF probably has some plans eventually for some of that stuff.

I know this whole endeavor must have been pretty time consuming and maybe overwhelming at times. He'll get there.

My suggestion for the Feed the Turd donation area is this. (it's ok to laugh or smirk while reading it)

In order to make it more visible and interactive I would like to see a animated or active wooden looking Treasure Chest that opens up when you mouse over the area.

I also think that if the cursor were to turn into a gold or silver coin and you could drop the coin in the chest that it might be similar to clicking on the box and doing so would take you to the next page automatically. The person could then make a decision, but at that point I bet more would donate at least a little initially and then maybe return.

I have close to zero computer programming and absolutely no website design knowledge but the treasure chest and cursor change over seems like it would be a easy thing to do for someone in the business.

Put the treasure chest in a prominent area and don't feel funny about doing so. It's barely visible and I know your trying to be low key about it. I think most of us will do it just to open it up and while were surfing around the site.

May I suggest putting one right next to this "comment" area I am typing in. It's a highly visible area.

Make it interactive and make it fun with the gold/silver coin theme and you'll get more "Chest Openings" then you could imagine.

Jul 18, 2011 - 8:01pm

On site improvements: I am

On site improvements: I am again pleased to see that a virtually non-moderated forum is running so pleasantly. I've been to many forums/boards and the self-regulating are always the much better ones content-wise than the ones that are run with strict/authoritarian rules and mods. So way to go, you did it right.

- Markus

FogHorn LegHorn
Jul 18, 2011 - 8:11pm

comex expiry@fred and speconomist

https://www.ccstrade.com/futures/gc/exp/ july 27 2011 for the july gold futures contract.Expiry of options on equities was this past saturday. So the friday of the second last week of any given month is the last tradeable day barring holidays and such.Raids typically occur a few days preceeding the expiry date, but also on news days, nonfarm payrolls and the like .Blatant we dont care if you know interventions are increasing as desperation intensifies Its art not science.;)


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