Another Winner!

153
Mon, Jul 18, 2011 - 10:29am

 I've got the re-crossing of $40 silver at about 3:09 EDT last night. Someone just won another autographed yellow hat. But who? I have no idea, frankly. I know someone out there in TurdLand has a spreadsheet of all the picks. Please post the winner in the comments section of this blog.

Our precious precious metals are sure looking fine this morning. Copper, crude and the grains are all down so it is clear that the world is looking at the PMs as safe haven plays...which they are. It's nice, too, to see that silver has shrugged off the "commodity" tag and is soaring alongside gold. Look for this to continue.

Now that silver is back above $40, look for the big money that left the pit back in May to come pouring back in. Not right away but in stages. IF silver can hold its position today and close above $40, the stages will be set for a run toward 42-42.50. It may briefly pause there before continuing higher. A close through $43 will force more dollars off of the sidelines and back into silver. Like April, we will likely see an accelerating move toward 48 and even 50. Do not think for a minute that the Forces of Darkness won't try everything in their power to paint a double-top at/near $50. Be very careful as price approaches that level. However, that's a topic for another day. For today, just enjoy the fact that silver is back above $40 and looks poised to mount another run toward 50 and...eventually...beyond.

paper_7-18amgold4.jpgpaper_7-18amsilv.jpg

Of course, gold looks fabulous, too. Hanging in there just above $1600 as I type. The simple fact that raiding and profit-taking at the psychologically significant sixteen hundred level hasn't occurred is interesting. If gold stays above 1600 for another hour or so, you may see buyers gain confidence that a quick drop will not be forthcoming. IF this happens, gold should skip away toward 1610. In either event, this is big news! Gold above 1600 is headline-grabbing material and it is sure to attract attention. It will help provide bids for the miners and it will provide spillover strength into the silver pit. A virtuous cycle, so to speak. Let's watch and see.

paper_7-18amsilv4.jpgpaper_7-18amgold.jpg

Have a great day. Rejoice and be happy. We are winning! TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()
Does Feb19 Comex gold close above $1250 on Friday?
YES
77%
NO
23%
Total votes: 179

  153 Comments

Silver2500 · Jul 18, 2011 - 10:33am

First!!!

First!!!

TPaine · Jul 18, 2011 - 10:34am

Now you done done it,

Now you done done it, Turd... Queue raid in 3... 2...

· Jul 18, 2011 - 10:37am

Great Video Saturday

Looks like your prediction for Sunday night futures fun was spot on. It will be interesting to see the COT report next weekend.

Loved the video. just found it this morning. 

Rusty Gates · Jul 18, 2011 - 10:38am
SilverTree · Jul 18, 2011 - 10:43am
Rusty Gates · Jul 18, 2011 - 10:48am

@ silvertree

Nice pic, like his style of winning... booze, smoke, & coke shaker!

FalseParadigm · Jul 18, 2011 - 10:51am

I was wrong

Hey I was wrong. I'm man enough to admit when I am.

So here's the question I have for where gold and silver go when news on the debt ceiling deal breaks.

Scenario #1

The house and senate agree on a deal that proposes "significant" spending cuts over 10 years (4+ trillion). Money flows into treasuries on the "sign" that the US government is "serious" on reducing its deficits. Conclusion: Short-term negative for PMs (and the dip I originally predicted)

Scenario #2

Congress agrees on a deal that proposes very small cuts (or none at all) which prompts investors to lose even MORE confidence in US debt and to come to the conclusion that Washington is not serious about reducing its deficits. Money continues to flow into PMs and we will likely NEVER again see a significant dip in PMs as they are now the last and ONLY safe haven.

Scenario #3

Congress fails to reach an agreement. August 2nd quickly approaches and either one of two things happens. Reid and McConnell get Congress to pass their proposal last second giving BHO full authority to raise the debt limit himself. This again signals to investors that US debt is junk and PMs are the only way to go. OR Congress can't reach any type of agreement and BHO uses an executive order to raise the debt ceiling with no cuts AND increased revenues again signalling that US debt is junk.

I'm going to be watching PM movement very carefully following the news of a deal. A sell off will signal that we should have cash at the ready to buy physical and miners at a discount. Strength signals all aboard.

Thoughts?

Avocado Lover · Jul 18, 2011 - 10:51am

Dec $40 Call Options

Just got back from breakfast here in Cali and picked up a couple of Dec $40 Calls for $4.00 !!!

Hope silver can get to mid $40s. Good luck everyone !

Old Major · Jul 18, 2011 - 10:52am
¤ · Jul 18, 2011 - 10:52am

Thanks TF

Another solid analysis and confirms what I wrote in my last post. I'm glad my thinking on the subject is pretty much inline with yours at the moment.

Mine is more of a trend/guess where yours is TA savvy and the recognition of what the situation is and where this all ends up and how it's going to get there. The only part I have to get good at is selling and getting out when it's obvious. I'm working on it and your helping us all on a daily basis. Thanks.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

IMO, one bad political quote or news event about the debt ceiling crisis and anything in the PM's and POSX is possible. I think were real close that point. I see on ZH they have a article about the EU situation and SocGen saying pretty much the same thing I've been mentioning for awhile. The unscripted, stressed out moment where someone screws up, says the wrong thing or makes the wrong move and then the domino's start. There is no way this is going to go according to the EE plan 100% of the way. At some point they misstep.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

On another note, the silence from the U.S. politicians is deafening and a bit ominous. They must have been crafting some type of deal over the weekend.

There is no reason for me to believe that they will do nothing more then kick the can down the road again. This deal they come up with will nauseate everyone and it will be weak and cowardly and both will take credit for it and then it's immediately onto the pre-election blaming/bashing and campaign season.

Gee, I can hardly wait until another 16 month Presidential campaign starts with O'Bummer in it. (sarcasm> off)

sevin · Jul 18, 2011 - 10:57am

I was thinking about the

I was thinking about the yellow hat. Since the competition was on the old site and besides the few whom we all know, there are a lot of users who have different names from before. Here is the link to the final results. It looks like Dani won with a date of 7/3/2011 at 2:37a.m. and Michiel got second with a date of 8/2/2011 at 10:00 pm. Both were 15 days apart. Here is link to final guesses. Thanks to H(Original):

https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en_US&hl=en_US&key=te...

Here is the post from turd with the final guesses:

https://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/05/empty-suits.html

Here is the contest post from turd:

https://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/05/really-good-day.html

speconomist · Jul 18, 2011 - 11:00am

I think I predicted $40 at

I think I predicted $40 at some point in July (under the nickname Dani), I'll look for that spreadsheet. The email I used for that comment and the one used for registering this account is the same.

Also, please everybody be careful with your longs on Thursday & Friday as the debt ceiling is raised.

Wingy · Jul 18, 2011 - 11:05am

Dow is getting hammered

As we , err, type the DOW is getting it's a$$ kicked. Down 149.5 at 11:00am. Safe haven? HA!

First post.

Economical Disaster · Jul 18, 2011 - 11:07am

DEAL or No Deal?

Default 'Off the Table,' Debt Deal Will Be Struck: Geithner

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/Default-Off-the-Table-Debt-cnbc-270209907...

Jimbio · Jul 18, 2011 - 11:08am

Speconomist, Its pretty easy

Edit: i cant read.

MrSteed · Jul 18, 2011 - 11:09am

Wow.  Looks like yellow and

Wow. Looks like yellow and white got another kick up!

Monedas · Jul 18, 2011 - 11:11am

Monedas spake.....

.......and the $1600/$40 glass cieling was penetrated ! Traders and Hoarders rejoice ! Adm. Mullen is coordinating with Chinese to take down Iran ! When the smoke clears.......we dump the Iro-Negrish president ! Monedas 2011 A hat for your cat !

ScottJ · Jul 18, 2011 - 11:12am

People Get Ready

Video unavailable
tyberious · Jul 18, 2011 - 11:16am

Iro-Negrish

I thought we have concluded that is doesn't matter who is president, the outcomes will be the same! Don't be confused!

Vypuero · Jul 18, 2011 - 11:18am

silver more than half way to $41

Trading at like $40.6 to $40.7

choke on paper · Jul 18, 2011 - 11:25am

positions

turd I don't see you talking about your positions anymore.

have you stopped that for legal reason.

speconomist · Jul 18, 2011 - 11:26am

I won??? Haha, I just posted

@sevin: Thanks for providing the links.

I won??? Haha, I just posted a date less bullish than Turd's predictions, but never imagined I'd be the one with the closest date.

As I said in this entry of the blog some minutes ago the email I used for that comment and the one used for registering this account is the same. I think Turd or someone else may be able to verify it.

I will post picture with the hat for you all once I get it. wink

Juan Moment · Jul 18, 2011 - 11:27am

Love your optimism Turd, its

Love your optimism Turd, its contagious. yes

Re the Silver $40 competition, I just checked the spreadsheet and my guess

My tea leaves tell me that silver will hit the $40 mark on 25th July at around 12:08 pm.

is not listed (post 442 of 444 on A Really Good Day post). I am not sure how many other punters didn't make it on the linked spreadsheet, but it sure doesn't seem to be up to date.

iamse7en · Jul 18, 2011 - 11:27am

Irrational exuberance

Remember, the banking cartel still has much power. Be cautious. But it looks like this will be another mini bull run, until the cartel produces another event to end it. Manipulation, but not total control. They can't stop every Asian from buying PMs. I just wonder when they will make holding bullion illegal. It is coming.

ChicksDigIt · Jul 18, 2011 - 11:28am

HKMEx Launches Silver Futures

Maybe the move above $40 is thanks to the announcement HKMEx is launching silver futures this Friday?

Jdawg · Jul 18, 2011 - 11:30am

Yes - People Get Ready

You be get ready

Al Green singing People Get Ready
pipewerkz · Jul 18, 2011 - 11:32am

1600 bitches

Bring the gold:

Bring The Gold
tmosley · Jul 18, 2011 - 11:33am

Well, I will admit that I was

Well, I will admit that I was hoping to never see the spot price rise again. A rising spot price makes it possible for the COMEX to survive, meaning no industrial panic, meaning no super-rise, and likely no parity with gold.

That said, silver hasn't gone parabolic against gold (a natural reaction to real supply demand fundamentals) means that the COMEX isn't out of critical yet. The collapse may yet precede the fiat craptastrophe that's coming.

turnoffthewater · Jul 18, 2011 - 11:34am

how did it start

The awakening to PM's is starting to happen as more and more people understand. An interesting video series

https://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/11.10/looting.html

Pass it on if you agree

speconomist · Jul 18, 2011 - 11:37am

@Juan Moment: Sorry mate, but

@Juan Moment:

Sorry mate, but I was re-reading Turd's post about the contest (last sentence):

Contest closes when I start a new thread tomorrow morning. Good luck!!!

And Turd posted the next day at 9:38 AM, which is 5 minutes before your post.

If it's any consolation for you I re-promise uploading picture of myself with the hat, and in addition will set it as my own avatar. smiley

Become a gold member and subscribe to Turd's Vault

Contribute

Donate  Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events week of 12/17

12/17 8:30 ET Empire State Fed Manu.
12/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
12/19 8:30 ET Existing Home Sales
12/19 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
12/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
12/21 8:30 ET Q3 GDP final guess
12/21 8:30 ET Durable Goods
12/21 10:00 ET Personal Income, Personal Spending and Core Inflation

Key Economic Events week of 12/10

12/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
12/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
12/13 8:30 ET Import Price Index
12/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
12/14 9:15 ET Industrial Prod. and Cap. Utilization
12/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events week of 11/26

11/27 9:00 ET Case-Schiller home prices
11/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
11/28 8:30 ET Q3 GDP 2nd guess
11/28 10:00 ET New home sales
11/29 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
11/29 10:00 ET Pending home sales
11/29 2:00 ET November FOMC minutes

randomness