Another Winner!

Mon, Jul 18, 2011 - 10:29am

I've got the re-crossing of $40 silver at about 3:09 EDT last night. Someone just won another autographed yellow hat. But who? I have no idea, frankly. I know someone out there in TurdLand has a spreadsheet of all the picks. Please post the winner in the comments section of this blog.

Our precious precious metals are sure looking fine this morning. Copper, crude and the grains are all down so it is clear that the world is looking at the PMs as safe haven plays...which they are. It's nice, too, to see that silver has shrugged off the "commodity" tag and is soaring alongside gold. Look for this to continue.

Now that silver is back above $40, look for the big money that left the pit back in May to come pouring back in. Not right away but in stages. IF silver can hold its position today and close above $40, the stages will be set for a run toward 42-42.50. It may briefly pause there before continuing higher. A close through $43 will force more dollars off of the sidelines and back into silver. Like April, we will likely see an accelerating move toward 48 and even 50. Do not think for a minute that the Forces of Darkness won't try everything in their power to paint a double-top at/near $50. Be very careful as price approaches that level. However, that's a topic for another day. For today, just enjoy the fact that silver is back above $40 and looks poised to mount another run toward 50 and...eventually...beyond.

Of course, gold looks fabulous, too. Hanging in there just above $1600 as I type. The simple fact that raiding and profit-taking at the psychologically significant sixteen hundred level hasn't occurred is interesting. If gold stays above 1600 for another hour or so, you may see buyers gain confidence that a quick drop will not be forthcoming. IF this happens, gold should skip away toward 1610. In either event, this is big news! Gold above 1600 is headline-grabbing material and it is sure to attract attention. It will help provide bids for the miners and it will provide spillover strength into the silver pit. A virtuous cycle, so to speak. Let's watch and see.

Have a great day. Rejoice and be happy. We are winning! TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Jul 18, 2011 - 10:33am



Jul 18, 2011 - 10:34am

Now you done done it,

Now you done done it, Turd... Queue raid in 3... 2...

Jul 18, 2011 - 10:37am

Great Video Saturday

Looks like your prediction for Sunday night futures fun was spot on. It will be interesting to see the COT report next weekend.

Loved the video. just found it this morning.

Rusty Gates
Jul 18, 2011 - 10:38am
Jul 18, 2011 - 10:43am
Rusty Gates
Jul 18, 2011 - 10:48am

@ silvertree

Nice pic, like his style of winning... booze, smoke, & coke shaker!

Jul 18, 2011 - 10:51am

I was wrong

Hey I was wrong. I'm man enough to admit when I am.

So here's the question I have for where gold and silver go when news on the debt ceiling deal breaks.

Scenario #1

The house and senate agree on a deal that proposes "significant" spending cuts over 10 years (4+ trillion). Money flows into treasuries on the "sign" that the US government is "serious" on reducing its deficits. Conclusion: Short-term negative for PMs (and the dip I originally predicted)

Scenario #2

Congress agrees on a deal that proposes very small cuts (or none at all) which prompts investors to lose even MORE confidence in US debt and to come to the conclusion that Washington is not serious about reducing its deficits. Money continues to flow into PMs and we will likely NEVER again see a significant dip in PMs as they are now the last and ONLY safe haven.

Scenario #3

Congress fails to reach an agreement. August 2nd quickly approaches and either one of two things happens. Reid and McConnell get Congress to pass their proposal last second giving BHO full authority to raise the debt limit himself. This again signals to investors that US debt is junk and PMs are the only way to go. OR Congress can't reach any type of agreement and BHO uses an executive order to raise the debt ceiling with no cuts AND increased revenues again signalling that US debt is junk.

I'm going to be watching PM movement very carefully following the news of a deal. A sell off will signal that we should have cash at the ready to buy physical and miners at a discount. Strength signals all aboard.


Avocado Lover
Jul 18, 2011 - 10:51am

Dec $40 Call Options

Just got back from breakfast here in Cali and picked up a couple of Dec $40 Calls for $4.00 !!!

Hope silver can get to mid $40s. Good luck everyone !

Old Major
Jul 18, 2011 - 10:52am
Jul 18, 2011 - 10:52am

Thanks TF

Another solid analysis and confirms what I wrote in my last post. I'm glad my thinking on the subject is pretty much inline with yours at the moment.

Mine is more of a trend/guess where yours is TA savvy and the recognition of what the situation is and where this all ends up and how it's going to get there. The only part I have to get good at is selling and getting out when it's obvious. I'm working on it and your helping us all on a daily basis. Thanks.


IMO, one bad political quote or news event about the debt ceiling crisis and anything in the PM's and POSX is possible. I think were real close that point. I see on ZH they have a article about the EU situation and SocGen saying pretty much the same thing I've been mentioning for awhile. The unscripted, stressed out moment where someone screws up, says the wrong thing or makes the wrong move and then the domino's start. There is no way this is going to go according to the EE plan 100% of the way. At some point they misstep.


On another note, the silence from the U.S. politicians is deafening and a bit ominous. They must have been crafting some type of deal over the weekend.

There is no reason for me to believe that they will do nothing more then kick the can down the road again. This deal they come up with will nauseate everyone and it will be weak and cowardly and both will take credit for it and then it's immediately onto the pre-election blaming/bashing and campaign season.

Gee, I can hardly wait until another 16 month Presidential campaign starts with O'Bummer in it. (sarcasm> off)

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