Turd Back

Fri, Jul 15, 2011 - 10:39am

Turd back. Turd refreshed. Turd ready.

After giving the printer, the Sharpie and the ruler a few days off, The Turd is back with a vengeance. As you might imagine, I could lay all sorts of charts on you this morning but time limits me to these six. I will certainly have a more comprehensive wrap-up over the weekend.


Looks terrific. First up, on the daily chart, you can clearly see how it has broken out of the "summer range" I had laid out. It is still susceptible to falling back into the range so it needs, now, to make another leg higher. I'll feel extremely confident that the doldrums are, in fact, over when gold moves past and closes above yesterday's intraday highs near 1595.

On the 8-hour chart, you can see the breakout past the early-May highs. I mentioned yesterday that a pullback to near those highs would be a good buying opportunity. It was. So far, so good.

And this 2-hour chart is very interesting. Longtime Turdites will note the familiar, "swiss stair"-type accumulation seen here. This is a compellingly bullish chart and indicates more advance to come. The next leg will take gold to 1600+. You'll know the formation has ended and consolidation has begun when the chart breaks down and through the previous stair's high. In this case, we'd want to watch for gold to trade down through 1575. Note that it stopped right there earlier.

All in all, gold looks great. It's poised to tackle 1600 and move on toward Santa's long-awaited 1650.


It's almost time to get really excited about silver but I can't blame you if you already are. First look at this 8-hour chart. As you know, I've maintained for quite some time that silver must perform 3 steps before we can get aggressively long again. First, it had to get through the down trendline off of the peak in late May. Check! Then, it had to get through the down trendline off of the recovery high of 39.45 set on 5/11. Check! Lastly, it has to get through and close above that 39.45 level. Not yet but soon?

If you ever wanted to see a classic, textbook bottom, you have one here on this 2-hour silver chart. A steep decline and sharp reversal off of the second bottom at 33.50. A rally to 37 with a sharp pullback that stops right at the level of the top between the two bottoms, near 35. Then, a powerful rally. Like gold, silver pulled back almost exactly to the point I'd mentioned yesterday as a good entry spot. I hope you were able to take advantage of the opportunity. If not, don't despair. More opportunities await.

Let's watch silver very closely here. Once silver closes above 39.45, it will move very quickly toward $40. When it begins printing numbers that begin with "4", open interest will explode as big money will rapidly return to the pit. Once this happens, I expect silver to rapidly advance toward 48-50.


Just wanted to throw a bone to all of the crude-watchers. It is trying to form a reverse H&S but needs to be watched closely. Just as we need crude to rally again and get back above $100, it also needs to avoid slipping back below 94. Keep a close eye on this one.

OK, that's it for now. Thanks again for your patience in allowing me a little Turd downtime. Have a great day! TF

p.s. Be sure to check out Santa's latest:


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Jul 15, 2011 - 3:52pm


Miners continuing to trend higher going into the close on Friday. What's up with that?

FalseParadigm Dr G
Jul 15, 2011 - 3:53pm


So maybe I have to admit that my analysis was flawed.

Seems completely irrational but again it does add up.

Jul 15, 2011 - 3:58pm

COMEX #'s Silver and Gold

Don't Forget COMEX #'s are always Basis YESTERDAY

Jul 15, 2011 - 4:05pm
Jul 15, 2011 - 4:06pm


You may actually be right about QE3, but it may be happening right now without our knowledge. The last treasury auction went really well, it's possible that the Fed is now simply buying the treasuries directly, instead of going through the Primary Dealers.

OK, it's illegal for the Fed to do that, but what the hell, this is the age of just doing what works for you and forget about the law.

So the govt. gets funded, Bernake keeps jawboning the market higher, and he can't get blamed for inflation. Win-win for everybody but the rule of law.

Jul 15, 2011 - 4:11pm

What a pleasant PM close...so far

Too bad it wasn't Thursday and we could carry the PM momentum overnight into the other markets.

6:00 p.m. Sunady should be interesting. I'm expecting all kinds of dramatic news after the market closes today. Last week Friday had lots of news going into the weekend.

Think the debt ceiling will get any MSM shortly?

Eric Original
Jul 15, 2011 - 4:14pm

Crazy strong close

Crazy strong close in gold, silver, miners, you-name-it. Appears everybody wants to stay extra long over the weekend. I took some profits off the table today. I guess next week will tell me if I was right or wrong.

But then, is it ever wrong to take some profits? I don't think so.

Jul 15, 2011 - 4:14pm

Jumper alert!

  1. 4:08p


    Les Hinton, CEO of Dow Jones, to resign: WSJ

  1. 4:12p


    Two Georgia banks closed, tally for 2011 now at 53

Jul 15, 2011 - 4:19pm

Debt Ceiling has no roof

There is NO WAY IN HELL that the debt ceiling won't be raised.

This is another way to do a QE3 without labeling it as such. I think come Monday stocks will shoot up and metals/miners will sink.

I'm hoping the reverse, that the US Government might realize that going further into debt is NOT the answer but cutting welfare to moochers and big bucks to their friends is. As that will never happen, the inevitable debt ceiling will go up like a whore raising her crab-infested skirt.

Jul 15, 2011 - 4:20pm

Strange, Eerie, Quiet - I Don't Like It

No raids, no news about the Euro mess, or the debt ceiling. Even Drudge has populist sentiment drivel sprawled across its page. What gives?

I cannot state it, but I sure feel it. Something is very off today, right now. Either there is a massive raid pending, or this may indeed be the staging moment for the pending slow collapse.

Anyone have any ideas what is really going on? Just a quiet Friday?

Jul 15, 2011 - 4:25pm
¤ Tesla
Jul 15, 2011 - 4:30pm

The Story Does smell

I think the hacking against us is going on but for them to talk about it seems suspicious also. I think we have some serious security issue's and we are being attacked daily. I also think we do the same exact things and we don't hear about that part of it.

This cyber security scenario does set things up for them to control, filter and monitor the internet with the backing of Congress. Maybe they'll do it without Congressional approval, but it sounds like they are floating it out there to prepare us for it's implementation.

I'm not sure where this whole cyber security national defense policy goes but if the DOD publicly states that any attacks that are traced to foreign Govt.'s is an act of war like any other act on land ,air or sea then idk what to think. If we take that stance and don't respond then it looks weak. We knowwho it is and were warning them in public and not diplomatically yet. Can anyone imagine the clandestine things going on right now all over the place against "enemies" and possibly friends also?

Is it SkyNet in a much different way? Where the attacks on the computers prompts an act of retribution by people against people (or their computers) because their computers are being attacked? Thats the opposite of the Terminator movie fantasy I think.

The U.S. gets to wage war openly with real weapons in countries far away so these pesky (and serious) breaches are part of the game as they try to peck away at us anyway possible.

Jul 15, 2011 - 4:44pm

Not that its needed, but...

I THIRD that motion <sideways wave>

Jul 15, 2011 - 4:55pm
silver foil hat
Jul 15, 2011 - 5:10pm

I smell 39.45 on the horizon

last high of 39.42.

Does late after hours close count Turd?

The third Turd of the Silver Supernova is about to make its appearance..

Jul 15, 2011 - 5:18pm

@ HomerJ

Re: Debt Ceiling has no roof

All this nonsense we are currently witnessing is nothing but political theater. The debt ceiling is going up...period. We just don't know by how much and how long it will take for those supposedly in charge to have to repeat this whole exercise again. For what it's worth, I think some sort of backdoor QE is already underway. They can't stop or else this whole rigged, ponzi, house of cards market comes tumbling down overnight and I would imagine that this would not be their desired outcome. Just a hunch... The powers that be will continue on telling everyone that business is ok, inflation is in check, the economy is growing etc... and perhaps they will even over promise and under deliver on the size of the debt ceiling increase, which could cause some of us some temporary pain. In the long run this won't matter. I believe that market participants worldwide have finally woken up to the fact that not only are there are huge problems all over the world (not just in Greece), but that there are no easy fixes to these problems and have begun to position themselves accordingly. I say good luck to the whole group of bankster mob thugs as they try with all their might to keep this market pumped up without stoking the inflationary fires any more.

Jul 15, 2011 - 5:23pm


...Like a 2 day old rotten fish in the hot sun it smells. Good thing WE aren't that stupid.

Maybe it would be a good idea to collect and archive Turdite mailing addresses just in case the need ever arises. Sadly I don't trust anything about America anymore and I have lost faith in the idea that the Constitution and Bill of Rights can (or at least will) protect any of us non elite types going forward.


Jul 15, 2011 - 5:26pm

The Wealth of Fed Governors Exposed


Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Janet Yellen stands as potentially the wealthiest member of the central bank’s board of governors since joining in October, reports WSJ.

Fed Vice Chairman Janet Yellen reported assets valued between $5.1 million and $14.4 million, according to financial disclosure forms released Friday.

Ben Bernanke reported assets valued between $1.1 million and $2.3 million — figures barely changed from a year earlier.

Fed governor Elizabeth Duke, a former community bank executive, listed assets of between $3.4 million and $7.9 million. Fed governor Daniel Tarullo listed assets between $1.3 million and $4.3 million. And Fed governor Sarah Bloom Raskin, who joined the board in October, reported assets valued between $1.6 million and $4.3 million.

Upon leaving the San Francisco Fed, Yellen also reported that she received as departure gifts both an Apple iPad, from the bank’s board of directors, and $400 toward the purchase of an Apple iPhone, from the bank’s top officers. The gifts were valued at $400 each.

Bernanke also earned between $150,000 and $2 million in textbook royalties. His 2010 salary was $196,700. Other governors earned an annual salary of $179,700 from the Fed.

Jul 15, 2011 - 5:26pm

Oops double post - sorry

Ignore (stop looking at it already!) double post - thx

Jul 15, 2011 - 5:33pm


It was around 1985 in Northern Mexico before all the drug scandals. The new President of Mexico set to completely change the corruption in the customs authority especially in the US/Mexican border. To this end he entrusted a highly trustworthy and honest economics professor from a northern university (let’s call him Guzman) and put him totally in charge. Guzman then turned to some of his most trusted ex-students to fill the supervisory ranks and they in turn completely cleaned house hiring and training new agents. After a couple of years the customs department was totally transformed.

Read more


silverbonz skulltoye
Jul 15, 2011 - 5:38pm

I held on this weekend

Not options though, single lot mini. First time since May 1st!

Jul 15, 2011 - 5:45pm

Ron Paul Says

It’s Time to Roll Back Big Government: Rep. Ron Paul Says ‘No’ to Debt Ceiling Increase


Jul 15, 2011 - 6:06pm


  1. 6:04p


    Fla.'s First Peoples Bank 54th U.S. bank failure

Jul 15, 2011 - 6:21pm

Hey folks. Alex Jones said

Hey folks. Alex Jones said that he is in California to attend a party for a friend. He said that the Bohemian Grove is starting tonight. Could be some interesting things being planned this week. Anybody know who is attending this year? I'll just assume Kissinger. LOL.

Jul 15, 2011 - 6:26pm


With regards to Turd's post and to the excitement on the board. Once again I am going to sound boring to most but I simply don't understand why people are getting excited about Gold as a buy after it has already skyrocketed over 100pts in 2 weeks. And Silver after its big move of nearly 6 1/2 pts. Is this professional behavior? Is this a good risk/reward entry? And why wasn't July 1st a good professional entry? People don't want a discount? They would rather buy when others are buying, i.e. herd behavior.

I can almost guarantee that Banksters are adding to shorts at these levels. They play both sides with unlimited money. Does no one remember the last time in late April there was this much excitement on the board? Trading is about money management in my opinion and facing one's own emotions and fading them not succumbing to them. What can be lost quickly and with great pain at this level is far more than what can be won imo. I very much doubt that Monday brings a big 3% up day but it could very easily selldown 5%. I am not talking about selling core positions in trading and in physical by the way.

Just some thoughts. I haven't a clue in the world what event political or otherwise will transpire as the next catalyst. That I leave to Vegas. I cannot spend any time on it because its wasted energy. Whats all important is money management and strategies for deployment of money in response to price. And I well remember the last time Santa got so much ink and was being so widely referenced. It was right near the end of April when 1650 was a foregone conclusion within a few trading days.

Jul 15, 2011 - 6:28pm


It's best we all know who we're potentially dealing with...


and for some nice weekend escapism, check out this guy's more detailed version of the story:


part 2 of this report (which is just as intersting) is posted here along with the author's other work:


Kumanari ginger
Jul 15, 2011 - 6:30pm

Armstrong misread/understood as usual

".....what happens after Labor Day is going to be very interesting. ....... This in itself suggests that we are likely to see a final burst to the upside perhaps going into the last week of Aug. before there is a correction. Timing wise, a high is ideally due in August.........If gold were to exceed the top of the uptrend chanel and exceed the the $2000 level, then we could see a 7 month decline there after .........."

If you note the words I have high lighted you may (not will) understand what is being said. There are no definitive words highlighted, he does not predict, he projects probabilities. No call for a rally into Aug only, then 6- month decline. He understands more than anyone the folly of price predictions when mixed with time,natural events and circumstance. He is not a genius, he hates being called such things. He is a man who has much more global monetary experience than most and he has learned to observe with an open mind, making pronouncements only after much thought and consideration. Those that dismiss or ignore him are in high company as the 'leaders' of this country have done so for decades at all our peril. I was trained to observe peoples' words, facial and body language and other nuance even in writing. It is a skill that has served me well, saving my life at least once.

Many of us want predictions, as it would make life easier having an expert confirm our desires. What some view as the "wrong calls" he has made are probably the critic's misinterpretation of his words.


Get your Stewart on, it will allow you to ignore the noise. His dailies are far more than what gets published. He is my second stop after checking au/ag spot. He will keep your head in the game, no wishy washy, no doubt, no malaise, no euphoria. Just stick and move, thrust, parry, slash. No prisoners. All delivered with side splitting gallows humor.

A hui hou malama pono kakou.

Jul 15, 2011 - 6:34pm

I agree w/dat... (& harrassment by census bureau)


Mentioned before myself I believe. I wonder how many here who would want to be put on a distro list in case of something funkadelic happens w/the net. Tesla and others, I totally agree. Frankly, I'm surprised they haven't done something sooner.

I too no longer trust things. Here's one of the latest reasons why....I don't know if some of you remember me mentioning my husband and I attracted the attention of a census taker. We thought they kept coming by because we didn't take the census. (we moved right during the middle and don't believe we did it). Much to our surprise when they continued coming by we found out they wanted us to take a "voluntary" "survey. Its called, okay, are you ready for this....


I MEAN WHOAAAAAAAA. How blatant can that be. When we finally opened the door and found out this is what we wanted we were floored. I immediately told the gentlemen we were NOT interested. He asked if we got our letter in the mail..and I said we did not. He was sure we did. Conveniently, he had a copy in his car (right). I informed him if I recv'd a letter form the government, I'd know it. The letter says about 3 months ago you completed an interview for the Consumer Expenditure Survey. (OF COURSE, WE DID NOT) They say they are contacting us again to request our ongoing help with this very important survey. Soon a field representative w/official identification will contact you again for the interview. Your responses help update the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Your response is a service to your community and the country (!) He asked us to review the information and set up a time to meet w/him and do the survey. I told him we would not be interested. He just kind of laughed and went away. We brought the information in and took a look at it...You will not believe the things they are asking to be prepared and shared/given to them......Here's just a brief list (apologize for the length, but thought you may want to know...) and if you would, just imagine someone coming to your door asking you to give them this info:

Billing statements (paper or on-line) for:

  • Utilities, such as electricity or nat gas
  • Residential and cellular telephone service
  • Insurance payments
  • Medical expenses
  • Education expenses
  • Home repair and improvement expenses
  • Cable or satellite television or satellite radio
  • Internet services

Receipts, Bill of Sales, or contracts for:

  • Vehicle Purchases
  • Vehicle leases
  • Furniture purchases
  • Appliance purchases
  • Service contracts, such as for pest control or appliance maintenance

Pay stubs showing:

  • Insurance premiums
  • Retirement deductions including 401Ks
  • Social Security deductions
  • Federal taxes deducted
  • State and local taxes deducted
  • Other deductions, such as union dues or charitable contributions

Credit Card statements for:

  • Expenses charged automatically to your credit card
  • Credit card membership fees
  • Any expenditures w/no receipt or statement! what does this make you think of???

Bank Statements or check books for:

  • Expenses automatically deducted from your bank account
  • ATM fees and other banking fees
  • Any expenditures with no receipt or statement

I get sick in my stomach every time I think of it. There is no way I would give them any of this info. Sick and invasion of privacy for sure. Where will it end? They don't even try to hide it anymore. If someone didn't know any better, they might think they were legally mandated to give the agent all this private financial information. sick, sick, sick... THEY WANT TO KNOW HOW YOU SPEND YOUR MONEY - I CAN GUESS WHY.....

Pegasus buzlightening
Jul 15, 2011 - 7:18pm

Silver Eagles at the Mint

Just to add, let's not forget that several hundred thousand America the Beautiful 5 oz. silver coins (at least a few million ounces) have been sold by the mint, not to mention 100's of thousands of silver proof sets, which all adds up to perhaps an additional 5 million ounces of silver coins sold in 2010.

Jul 15, 2011 - 7:34pm

Paper or the real thing?

@ Dr. G

And thusly don't seem to understand the need to get out of paper NOW. Let me put it to you this way. Would you rather crash the paper machinery and stop the gov't's ability to prepare for the Final War with its citizens, resulting in ruins of incomplete plans and equipment for domination lying about, safely out of reach of implementation against us, or would you rather keep playing the paper game to continue stacking at a faster rate, BUT have to deal with Terminators, drones ready to take out minimum 15-40% of the population at once, a full complement of UN personnel and equipment, right along with the US Armed Forces being successfully redeployed to conquer the American citizenry because the gov't had enough time by distracting the public into the stock markets and fiat game so that they could get enough people accepting fiat to carry out the orders to built the equipment needed to implement the Final Solution? Get the people out of paper, and you cut the gov't off from access to control of people through money.

(I've been waiting for you, Hitler - this time, you're not going to pull off the equivalent of going from prison to Chancellor in 10 years' time; 1923-1933).


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Key Economic Events Week of 4/22

4/22 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
4/23 10:00 ET New Home Sales
4/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
4/26 8:30 ET Q1 GDP first guess

Key Economic Events Week of 4/15

4/16 9:15 ET Cap Util and Ind Prod
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4/17 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
4/18 8:30 ET Retail Sales (March)
4/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
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4/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 4/1

4/1 8:30 ET Retail Sales (Feb)
4/1 9:45 ET Markit & ISM Manu PMIs
4/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending (Feb)
4/1 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Jan)
4/2 8:30 ET Durable Goods (Feb)
4/3 9:45 ET Markit & ISM Services PMIs
4/5 8:30 ET BLSBS