Turd Back

Fri, Jul 15, 2011 - 10:39am

Turd back. Turd refreshed. Turd ready.

After giving the printer, the Sharpie and the ruler a few days off, The Turd is back with a vengeance. As you might imagine, I could lay all sorts of charts on you this morning but time limits me to these six. I will certainly have a more comprehensive wrap-up over the weekend.


Looks terrific. First up, on the daily chart, you can clearly see how it has broken out of the "summer range" I had laid out. It is still susceptible to falling back into the range so it needs, now, to make another leg higher. I'll feel extremely confident that the doldrums are, in fact, over when gold moves past and closes above yesterday's intraday highs near 1595.

On the 8-hour chart, you can see the breakout past the early-May highs. I mentioned yesterday that a pullback to near those highs would be a good buying opportunity. It was. So far, so good.

And this 2-hour chart is very interesting. Longtime Turdites will note the familiar, "swiss stair"-type accumulation seen here. This is a compellingly bullish chart and indicates more advance to come. The next leg will take gold to 1600+. You'll know the formation has ended and consolidation has begun when the chart breaks down and through the previous stair's high. In this case, we'd want to watch for gold to trade down through 1575. Note that it stopped right there earlier.

All in all, gold looks great. It's poised to tackle 1600 and move on toward Santa's long-awaited 1650.


It's almost time to get really excited about silver but I can't blame you if you already are. First look at this 8-hour chart. As you know, I've maintained for quite some time that silver must perform 3 steps before we can get aggressively long again. First, it had to get through the down trendline off of the peak in late May. Check! Then, it had to get through the down trendline off of the recovery high of 39.45 set on 5/11. Check! Lastly, it has to get through and close above that 39.45 level. Not yet but soon?

If you ever wanted to see a classic, textbook bottom, you have one here on this 2-hour silver chart. A steep decline and sharp reversal off of the second bottom at 33.50. A rally to 37 with a sharp pullback that stops right at the level of the top between the two bottoms, near 35. Then, a powerful rally. Like gold, silver pulled back almost exactly to the point I'd mentioned yesterday as a good entry spot. I hope you were able to take advantage of the opportunity. If not, don't despair. More opportunities await.

Let's watch silver very closely here. Once silver closes above 39.45, it will move very quickly toward $40. When it begins printing numbers that begin with "4", open interest will explode as big money will rapidly return to the pit. Once this happens, I expect silver to rapidly advance toward 48-50.


Just wanted to throw a bone to all of the crude-watchers. It is trying to form a reverse H&S but needs to be watched closely. Just as we need crude to rally again and get back above $100, it also needs to avoid slipping back below 94. Keep a close eye on this one.

OK, that's it for now. Thanks again for your patience in allowing me a little Turd downtime. Have a great day! TF

p.s. Be sure to check out Santa's latest:


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Jul 15, 2011 - 10:41am
Captain Hank Murphy
Jul 15, 2011 - 10:45am

Thanks as always

Thanks as always for the time you spend teaching us. I save these charts and am slowly learning about how this whole mess works (or doesn't). Maybe one day I will be brave enough to venture into the options arena but until then it's stacking and pouring up margarita's for this turdite. Enjoy your summer, everyone.

p.s. I want to punch Eric Cantor in the balls. Hard. I don't trust that guy.

Jul 15, 2011 - 10:47am

Welcome back Turd Ferg

Welcome back Turd Ferg

Jul 15, 2011 - 10:48am

Welcome back chartist:)

Welcome back chartist:)

Jul 15, 2011 - 10:49am

Buy, Buy, BUY! when recent CFTC showed lowest commercial

short/long ratio since 2008.

It is still not too late to jump in from weekly charts.

Jul 15, 2011 - 10:50am


Thanks, your input is really appreciated

Jul 15, 2011 - 10:51am

EE Raid?

Through $39 maybe a raid; short of $39 at 11 am, no raid. That's my thought. You all?

Jul 15, 2011 - 10:51am

Another rating institute

Here's a rating institute that rates JP Morgan as junk. Very refreshing;) https://www.weissratings.com/news/bank/110627.aspx US could soon be junk rated by them as well. "The Weiss ratings is very close to downgrading the sovereign debt of the United States one more notch to a 'C-', which will put it just one notch above junk." “The only thing that's really holding up the US debt rating is a widespread international acceptance for US Treasury securities and nice strong liquid market. But even that might be coming into question.” https://www.cnbc.com/id/42871647/?US_Debt_Rating_Should_Be_C_Independent...

Jul 15, 2011 - 10:52am

How Rude of Me

Lost my head, glad to see you back TF!

Jul 15, 2011 - 10:53am


p.s. I want to punch Eric Cantor in the balls. Hard. I don't trust that guy.

Wow, who knew that B.O. posted here:)

Jul 15, 2011 - 10:54am

Rebels Hit the Jackpot in Libya

Welcome back Turd. Won't be long until we can play the game of where is the sovereign gold of ____________?(Name that country)

Breaking News Alert: U.S. to recognize Libyan rebels as legitimate government
July 15, 2011 8:55:50 AM

Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton announced Friday that the United States is giving rebel leaders full diplomatic recognition as the governing authority of Libya, after five months of fighting to oust longtime ruler Moammar Gaddafi.

The move would give the rebels access to some of the $30 billion of Libyan assets that have been frozen by the United States.


Jul 15, 2011 - 10:56am

Debt ceiling talks

Just some photos I took from the current debt ceiling talks.


Jul 15, 2011 - 10:57am
Jul 15, 2011 - 11:00am

Technical analysis is fine

But I advise you to also factor in the news into your analysis. Technicals can turn to shit at any point on certain news as we've seen time and time again.

Know that a debt ceiling deal WILL send metals down through resistance levels. A pull back of a few percentage points is not the final "dip" I am forecasting. Keep stacking your physical and day trade all you want. But don't buy heavy at these levels.

Jul 15, 2011 - 11:03am

On Debt Ceiling talks...

Thanks for these two pics economicfreefall!

Nonverbal communication usually cuts right to the heart. Can any of you imagine talking and thinking about holding something steady or decreasing it and simultaneously raising your hands in the air like this! Do you believe the words or the actions? It takes great concentration or lots of practice to lie nonverbally.

Captain Hank Murphy ClinkinKY
Jul 15, 2011 - 11:04am

Warning: political opinion below. feel free to skip over

In reply to ClinkinKY

Just to clarify, I'm taking a shot directly at him and not Repub's. Cantor is the biggest thing that worries me in this whole debt mess. I think that Boehner would make a deal of some kind if it were up to him, because he seems to have some semblance of understanding of what the consequences would be if they don't. McConnell would make a deal if it were up to him, because he's a coward at heart and is afraid of getting the blame for the mess should we fail to make a deal (and he's rightly afraid, because it would be pretty much entirely the Republicans' fault). But Cantor? I don't think that Machiavellian bastard cares even one iota about anything other than increasing his personal power. His current goal seems to be all about maneuvering around Boehner in order to take his job by pandering to the craziest of the crazies in their caucus. He doesn't care one bit if America burns, as long as he has power over the ruins that remain. Textbook sociopath, and someone I've been afraid of for years. Now he's getting a taste of real power, and he's showing his true psycho colors.

edit: full disclosure: I'm neither dem/repub and I'm voting for Ron Paul.

Jul 15, 2011 - 11:06am


Hi Folks,

What is your take on Dr. C?

Jul 15, 2011 - 11:07am
Jul 15, 2011 - 11:09am

Cantor shorts treasuries

Is that a little conflict of interest? Didn't Greek politicos do the same thing only bigger bets with the help of Goldman Sacks (That's their M.O) before their economy crashed? It's only $15,000 in TBT.


Pattern recognition kicking in.

Jul 15, 2011 - 11:12am

Friday, optons expiry done, Turd back

Man are we loaded for bear or what? And it looks like we're going up here.

Yippy-eye-oh Turday

Dr G FalseParadigm
Jul 15, 2011 - 11:12am


How in the hell will a debt ceiling deal send metals down through resistance levels? Raising the debt ceiling means more spending which means more printing due to decreased tax revenues which means more debasement of the currency which means...gold isn't money?

I'll say buy heavy at these levels and be done with it.

Jul 15, 2011 - 11:12am
Jul 15, 2011 - 11:18am

Wynter Benton of Feb silver

Wynter Benton of Feb silver drama has re-emerged again. This new development is bullish in itself.

Jul 15, 2011 - 11:21am

This has to be one of the shortest summers I've seen for gold

Usually the pain lasts into late August and it isn't obvious that the pain is over until October. I don't think I've ever seen a summer where it was THIS obvious that the pain had ended THIS soon. I dunno what to say, it looks like we're on the verge of entering the dogleg region of the hyperinflation.

In any case, it's more volatility for everyone all around.

Jul 15, 2011 - 11:25am

Obama just said...

"...we don't need to do anything drastic to fix all of this. We're not Greece or Portugal in spite of what everyone is saying..." Nothing drastic? Really?

Two Gun Tobin
Jul 15, 2011 - 11:26am

Local Silver Shops

Just a quick observation. In the last 3 days, I've been in three of the local coin shops that I haunt. All have seen a huge

increase in sales. The one I buy most of my physical from said business is up 40% or more.. and yesterday

was their best day in the last month.

Jul 15, 2011 - 11:34am

"We're not Greece or Portugal"

True, we're worse. Read on brother, read on.

Oh goodie, now "he'll keep on truckin" too.

WYO Silver
Jul 15, 2011 - 11:37am

Jim Willayyy!

Turd wingman Jim Willie is out with his latest commentary. (I just wish the guy would be a little more outspoken.):

"The second half recovery mantra nonsense in the USEconomy has been blatant propaganda for five years running. The second half will feature a powerful Gold & Silver breakout rally that will blow the socks off the public and investment community,..."

"Bernanke is an utter dolt, a hack financial engineer, a mad paper merchant, an ink salesman, a journeyman paper shuffler, a destroyer of capital."

"Gold has broken out in British Pound currency terms. That completes the trifecta in gold breakout in three major currencies. The UK banking system is in ruins. The UKEconomy is in deadly decline. Price inflation has arrived."

"Prepare for a MASSIVE bull rally in both Gold & Silver from July through January. The yellow metal as usual will fight the political and banker battles and clear the path for the white horse metal to sprint. The Silver price gains in US$ terms will continue to TRIPLE the Gold price gains, but Silver must be given a little time to overcome the spiked springtime top near $50. All in time."

"Hidden Yen Signal & Gold Breakout" (link below):


Jul 15, 2011 - 11:40am
Jul 15, 2011 - 11:42am

Silver run up

This all looks a little like the last "easy" run up. FWER, silver seems to be effortlessly advancing. If I had to guess, I'd say a deal is already a given and the big boys are in the know, as usual. The boat is being loaded with sheep for an easy slaughter. Of course, I could be wrong, and it's to the moon, Alice. Retail coin shops doing gangbuster business is another sign of pending slaughter.

Jim Willie is now TF's wingman? That goes right along with Sinclair picking up QE to infinity from this blog. Keep it in perspective.


Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events Week of 4/15

4/16 9:15 ET Cap Util and Ind Prod
4/17 8:30 ET Trade Deficit (Feb)
4/17 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
4/18 8:30 ET Retail Sales (March)
4/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
4/18 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Feb)
4/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 4/1

4/1 8:30 ET Retail Sales (Feb)
4/1 9:45 ET Markit & ISM Manu PMIs
4/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending (Feb)
4/1 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Jan)
4/2 8:30 ET Durable Goods (Feb)
4/3 9:45 ET Markit & ISM Services PMIs
4/5 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 3/25

3/26 8:30 ET Housing Starts (Feb)
3/27 8:30 ET Trade Deficit (Jan)
3/28 8:30 ET Q4 GDP final guess
3/28 10:00 ET Pending Home Sales (Feb)
3/29 8:30 ET Personal Income (Feb)
3/29 8:30 ET Consumer Spending and Core Infl. (Jan)
3/29 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
3/29 10:00 ET New Home Sales (Feb)