Turd Back

Fri, Jul 15, 2011 - 10:39am

Turd back. Turd refreshed. Turd ready.

After giving the printer, the Sharpie and the ruler a few days off, The Turd is back with a vengeance. As you might imagine, I could lay all sorts of charts on you this morning but time limits me to these six. I will certainly have a more comprehensive wrap-up over the weekend.


Looks terrific. First up, on the daily chart, you can clearly see how it has broken out of the "summer range" I had laid out. It is still susceptible to falling back into the range so it needs, now, to make another leg higher. I'll feel extremely confident that the doldrums are, in fact, over when gold moves past and closes above yesterday's intraday highs near 1595.

On the 8-hour chart, you can see the breakout past the early-May highs. I mentioned yesterday that a pullback to near those highs would be a good buying opportunity. It was. So far, so good.

And this 2-hour chart is very interesting. Longtime Turdites will note the familiar, "swiss stair"-type accumulation seen here. This is a compellingly bullish chart and indicates more advance to come. The next leg will take gold to 1600+. You'll know the formation has ended and consolidation has begun when the chart breaks down and through the previous stair's high. In this case, we'd want to watch for gold to trade down through 1575. Note that it stopped right there earlier.

All in all, gold looks great. It's poised to tackle 1600 and move on toward Santa's long-awaited 1650.


It's almost time to get really excited about silver but I can't blame you if you already are. First look at this 8-hour chart. As you know, I've maintained for quite some time that silver must perform 3 steps before we can get aggressively long again. First, it had to get through the down trendline off of the peak in late May. Check! Then, it had to get through the down trendline off of the recovery high of 39.45 set on 5/11. Check! Lastly, it has to get through and close above that 39.45 level. Not yet but soon?

If you ever wanted to see a classic, textbook bottom, you have one here on this 2-hour silver chart. A steep decline and sharp reversal off of the second bottom at 33.50. A rally to 37 with a sharp pullback that stops right at the level of the top between the two bottoms, near 35. Then, a powerful rally. Like gold, silver pulled back almost exactly to the point I'd mentioned yesterday as a good entry spot. I hope you were able to take advantage of the opportunity. If not, don't despair. More opportunities await.

Let's watch silver very closely here. Once silver closes above 39.45, it will move very quickly toward $40. When it begins printing numbers that begin with "4", open interest will explode as big money will rapidly return to the pit. Once this happens, I expect silver to rapidly advance toward 48-50.


Just wanted to throw a bone to all of the crude-watchers. It is trying to form a reverse H&S but needs to be watched closely. Just as we need crude to rally again and get back above $100, it also needs to avoid slipping back below 94. Keep a close eye on this one.

OK, that's it for now. Thanks again for your patience in allowing me a little Turd downtime. Have a great day! TF

p.s. Be sure to check out Santa's latest:


About the Author

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Jul 17, 2011 - 12:52am

Yooper Rick said, "thread of 

Yooper Rick said, "thread of faith"

I really like that title. Sometimes we feel like we are hanging on by a 'thread' ...so there is a double meaning there.

Thanks so much Chin Music. I am checking out the book/link and if you start that 'thread of faith'... I too am there.

Jul 16, 2011 - 10:14pm

Yo Rick

looking into it my man!!!!!

Yooper Rick
Jul 16, 2011 - 9:36pm

Hey Chin!  Good to see you

Hey Chin! Good to see you post again. Start that thread of faith and you can count on me brother.

lottiedahI Wazere
Jul 16, 2011 - 9:27pm

Hard Day, I Wazere?

By your poetry it sounds like it has been a rough day. Hope it gets better for you. Full moon was last night, so things should be getting back to 'normal'. (Oh, that may not be something to wish for either. haha)


John Denver fan?

BayFerd Torgerson
Jul 16, 2011 - 8:32pm


LOL .... Very good .... couldn't help but think of Laurel & Hardy

Ferd TorgersonBay
Jul 16, 2011 - 8:09pm

@ Chin Music, The talking dog.

Chin Music:

Saw that one a few weeks ago and shared it with friends and family. How could one not like that dog?

Here's a link to another (Two Dogs Dining in a Restaurant) that's been making the rounds. Pretty good but not as good as the talking dog.




Jul 16, 2011 - 8:08pm

Ginger ... Proverbs 17:3

The fining pot is for silver, and the furnace for gold: but the LORD trieth the hearts.

When silver and gold go through the refining process they are heated red hot and that is when the impurities are brought to the top. The impurities are then skimmed off and the process starts again and again until the refiner gets purity. Not all Christians go through this process because generally they are unwilling. It takes willingness to continue through the refinement process. There is a great book that I highly recommend you buy .... "Faith in the Night Seasons" by Chuck & Nancy Missler. Here is a link to their site .... if you decide to purchase in the product selector box choose the text edition (13.95)


you said:

"Maybe we should start a 'Faith Preparation' thread or something in the Preparing forum as I'm sure some don't like this here on the Main blog. It's been an absolute timely and great discussion with all of you, Chin, Larry, Tesla, DPH, LaMachinna, NW VIEW, and everyone else who enjoys/needs this topic to be discussed. "

I had that same thought about doing something like that earlier this week .... maybe we should follow through

Jul 16, 2011 - 7:41pm

Quiet Before the Storm?

The past two weeks seem to be such a set-up; this year I was ready to cash out for the summer and was pummeled May 1. OK fine, been there done that. Now with the seeming early end of the doldrums ready to jump back in? I think not. Mentions of Bohemian Grove and Bilderberger (sp) meetings have my tin foil hat ringing. The lack of news concerning the Euro debacle and the bs about the US budget just make me think it's a contrived show.

What's real is what's in our hearts and from what I've read this weekend here what great company to spend time with!

Got free money from my bank, no fee and no interest for a year, bought a bit of gold, waiting to buy more. I just don't trust TPTB at all. These people (parasitical humanoids) just have no face, scruples, honor. Just 'cause I'm paranoid doesn't mean....... (space)....LOL

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Jul 16, 2011 - 7:17pm

Your Most Reviled Politician?

CA Lawyer mentioned it earlier after the market closed on Friday. Eerily quiet.

I though we night get a gush of news after the markets closed. Last weekend we had China's inflation numbers and Greece and Italy's problems plus the Italian ban on "short" positions over there and our U.S. debt ceiling drama etc.

There seems to be no shortage of things out there that should be front and center. I forgot about the European Bank stress tests that weren't that great. Yet we hear nothing really.

Maybe this is the weekend where both parties (drunken?) get together and hash out a compromise solution that still sucks but at least it's something? A news blackout or cool down period where something productive might gets done without any name calling. Fat chance.

Not picking sides here at all so don't misunderstand this comment as both parties suck.

But could you imagine being across the table from Eric Cantor or Harry Reid during these negotiations and not wanting to just lunge at them when they get all smirky and sarcastic? They almost make me a little nuts inside every time I see them on TV.

Who is your most reviled politician that makes eye's almost bug out? I would be remiss if I didn't mention Nancy Pelosi also......Ewww!

Jul 16, 2011 - 7:16pm

Chin Music, The talking dog.

Chin Music,

The talking dog. ...ROFL. ....Hilarious. I had not seen that. :D

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