Turd Back

240
Fri, Jul 15, 2011 - 10:39am

Turd back. Turd refreshed. Turd ready.

After giving the printer, the Sharpie and the ruler a few days off, The Turd is back with a vengeance. As you might imagine, I could lay all sorts of charts on you this morning but time limits me to these six. I will certainly have a more comprehensive wrap-up over the weekend.

GOLD

Looks terrific. First up, on the daily chart, you can clearly see how it has broken out of the "summer range" I had laid out. It is still susceptible to falling back into the range so it needs, now, to make another leg higher. I'll feel extremely confident that the doldrums are, in fact, over when gold moves past and closes above yesterday's intraday highs near 1595.

On the 8-hour chart, you can see the breakout past the early-May highs. I mentioned yesterday that a pullback to near those highs would be a good buying opportunity. It was. So far, so good.

And this 2-hour chart is very interesting. Longtime Turdites will note the familiar, "swiss stair"-type accumulation seen here. This is a compellingly bullish chart and indicates more advance to come. The next leg will take gold to 1600+. You'll know the formation has ended and consolidation has begun when the chart breaks down and through the previous stair's high. In this case, we'd want to watch for gold to trade down through 1575. Note that it stopped right there earlier.

All in all, gold looks great. It's poised to tackle 1600 and move on toward Santa's long-awaited 1650.

SILVER

It's almost time to get really excited about silver but I can't blame you if you already are. First look at this 8-hour chart. As you know, I've maintained for quite some time that silver must perform 3 steps before we can get aggressively long again. First, it had to get through the down trendline off of the peak in late May. Check! Then, it had to get through the down trendline off of the recovery high of 39.45 set on 5/11. Check! Lastly, it has to get through and close above that 39.45 level. Not yet but soon?

If you ever wanted to see a classic, textbook bottom, you have one here on this 2-hour silver chart. A steep decline and sharp reversal off of the second bottom at 33.50. A rally to 37 with a sharp pullback that stops right at the level of the top between the two bottoms, near 35. Then, a powerful rally. Like gold, silver pulled back almost exactly to the point I'd mentioned yesterday as a good entry spot. I hope you were able to take advantage of the opportunity. If not, don't despair. More opportunities await.

Let's watch silver very closely here. Once silver closes above 39.45, it will move very quickly toward $40. When it begins printing numbers that begin with "4", open interest will explode as big money will rapidly return to the pit. Once this happens, I expect silver to rapidly advance toward 48-50.

CRUDE

Just wanted to throw a bone to all of the crude-watchers. It is trying to form a reverse H&S but needs to be watched closely. Just as we need crude to rally again and get back above $100, it also needs to avoid slipping back below 94. Keep a close eye on this one.

OK, that's it for now. Thanks again for your patience in allowing me a little Turd downtime. Have a great day! TF

p.s. Be sure to check out Santa's latest:

https://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/7/15_Jim_Sinclair_-_Gold_Milestone_at_%241%2C764_Paves_Way_to_%2412%2C000.html

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  240 Comments

SilverTree
Jul 15, 2011 - 10:41am
Captain Hank Murphy
Jul 15, 2011 - 10:45am

Thanks as always

Thanks as always for the time you spend teaching us. I save these charts and am slowly learning about how this whole mess works (or doesn't). Maybe one day I will be brave enough to venture into the options arena but until then it's stacking and pouring up margarita's for this turdite. Enjoy your summer, everyone.

p.s. I want to punch Eric Cantor in the balls. Hard. I don't trust that guy.

Tim
Jul 15, 2011 - 10:47am

Welcome back Turd Ferg

Welcome back Turd Ferg

LongGoldLongSilver
Jul 15, 2011 - 10:48am

Welcome back chartist:)

Welcome back chartist:)

silver_hunter
Jul 15, 2011 - 10:49am

Buy, Buy, BUY! when recent CFTC showed lowest commercial

short/long ratio since 2008.

It is still not too late to jump in from weekly charts.

Mbovane
Jul 15, 2011 - 10:50am

Thanks

Thanks, your input is really appreciated

MIDDIE
Jul 15, 2011 - 10:51am

EE Raid?

Through $39 maybe a raid; short of $39 at 11 am, no raid. That's my thought. You all?

LongGoldLongSilver
Jul 15, 2011 - 10:51am

Another rating institute

Here's a rating institute that rates JP Morgan as junk. Very refreshing;) https://www.weissratings.com/news/bank/110627.aspx US could soon be junk rated by them as well. "The Weiss ratings is very close to downgrading the sovereign debt of the United States one more notch to a 'C-', which will put it just one notch above junk." “The only thing that's really holding up the US debt rating is a widespread international acceptance for US Treasury securities and nice strong liquid market. But even that might be coming into question.” https://www.cnbc.com/id/42871647/?US_Debt_Rating_Should_Be_C_Independent...

MIDDIE
Jul 15, 2011 - 10:52am

How Rude of Me

Lost my head, glad to see you back TF!

ClinkinKY
Jul 15, 2011 - 10:53am

B.O.

p.s. I want to punch Eric Cantor in the balls. Hard. I don't trust that guy.

Wow, who knew that B.O. posted here:)

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

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