One More Day

112
Thu, Jul 14, 2011 - 1:04pm

One more day until The Turd is back "on the throne". I promise lots of pretty charts tomorrow. Until then, just this quick update.

You had to expect The Bernank to throw some cold water on the "QE3" excitement. He has doen exactly that and gold is now almost $10 off its highs of near 1595. Silver reached all the way to within 0.05 of the important 39.45 level before falling back. Now, what's next?

I can certainly understanding the profit-taking at those levels. Heck, if I'd been awake, I'd have done it, too. What we'll likely see now is a consolidation here with a little more pullback. Gold could fall back toward the old, intraday highs near 1580 and silver could drop toward 38. At that point, however, both would be very strong buys from a technical standpoint.

Gold, at this point, just looks fabulous. New all-time highs tend to make a chart look very nice. From here, I'd expect round number resistance at 1600 and maybe some pushback at Santa's old target of 1650. For silver, it's all about getting through and closing above the high of 39.45 set back on 5/11. Once it does that and then starts printing numbers that start with "4", you'll see lots and lots of money come pouring back into the pit. A very quick move back toward $48-50 is not only likely, it's probable.

The only thing that has me a little bit troubled is the lack of follow-through in copper and crude. Even with all this hubbub, copper was actually higher a week ago. Hmmm. And crude is down almost $2 today as The Regime is once again threatening SPR releases. What a bunch of douchebags.

https://www.zerohedge.com/article/iea-joins-fed-making-failure-policy-says-additional-spr-releases-possible

Keep a very close eye on this situation. As if you needed more proof the QE to infinity is the only option:

https://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-07-14/california-weighs-contingency-loan-as-debt-limit-turmoil-looms.html

And JS Kim has written another excellent article for ZH. If you're in the miners, please take time to read it:

https://www.zerohedge.com/article/why-it’s-still-buying-season-gold-and-silver-mining-stocks

Have a great day. I look forward to returning to full Turd duties tomorrow. TF

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  112 Comments

SilverTree · Jul 14, 2011 - 1:09pm
ScottJ · Jul 14, 2011 - 1:12pm

We had 8 up-days in a row in

We had 8 up-days in a row in gold, it is time for at least a little consolidation before moving through 1600. Nothing goes straight up. I think tomorrow will be another red day, as usually a london fix raid (as we saw today) is accompanied by at least consecutive downward movement attempts... and I would expect that to be tomorrow.

James Turk is quoted as saying:

Link here From KingWorldNews.com

James Turk is one of the finest statistician's out there. You must pay attention to what he says:

James Turk: just “several more days of silver in the 30s” Posted by Dominique de Kevelioc de Bailleul on Jul 13, 2011

With silver and gold rallying strongly against the tide of the risk-off trade, bullion expert James Turk forecasts that silver is about to launch into the 40s, as more nervous investors come to terms with the inevitability of further devaluations and/or sovereign defaults, forced upon the world’s central banks by investors and weak politicians.
“One never knows exactly how the markets will unfold, but my sense is that we only have several more days of silver in the 30s,” Turk told King World News. “Once silver clears $38 on a closing basis, you are going to get back into the mid 40s in a heartbeat.

And... for the are you serious article I found from the zerohedge comments....

The SEC Porn Story

https://abcnews.go.com/GMA/sec-pornography-employees-spent-hours-surfing...

WYO Silver · Jul 14, 2011 - 1:14pm

COMEX Commercial Traders Positioning for Silver Strength

Gene Arenberg's column from gotgoldreport.com (good chart included):

"The bottom line: Very large, seasoned professional futures traders that should absolutely know if commercial supplies of silver are indeed tight are positioning as though they believe with certainty that is so. Short silver at one’s peril in light of these compelling indicators."

https://www.gotgoldreport.com/2011/07/-comex-commercial-traders-positioning-for-silver-strength.html

¤ · Jul 14, 2011 - 1:17pm
TexAsh · Jul 14, 2011 - 1:22pm

Sivler raid now?

Bernanke's back-pedding opens the door for a post-lunch raid by the flying monkeys in 3...2...

TheGoodDoctor · Jul 14, 2011 - 1:24pm

I guess we will see the

I guess we will see the impact of the debt ceiling either rising or staying the same. Looks like Moody's is trying to help the cause. Mark Zandi trying to position himself in the Administration? I mean hell, he is still with Moody's isn't he?

Anybody got odds on Geithner leaving after the debt ceiling is raised? Doesn't he have to stay because he is the only holdover from the Bush admin that likely knows everything that went on during the financial crisis? Maybe that is why Dimon's name comes up as a replacement for TurboTaxTimmy. I don't see how the Obama Admin could get away with that though.

Bay · Jul 14, 2011 - 1:26pm

Silver & Gold Spreadsheets

For anyone who is interested I have created 2 forums each one consisting of a spreadsheet link. One to Silver and one to Gold. The price history covered is from 2008 to present. Price history is interesting and at times revealing. So if you would like to view them here is a link to the forum where they are. The 2 links provided in the forum will take you out to Google Docs to view the spreadsheets.

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forums/member-charts

· Jul 14, 2011 - 1:26pm

JPM to buy physical silver?

Interesting comments at "Don't Tread On Me" (Thanks for the link, SGS!)

https://dont-tread-on.me/11-silver-investor-mentality-shifts/

"JP Morgan the ultimate silver buyer? In the final act I do not expect JP Morgan to fall on the sword to defend a failing system. JP along with many other banks know full well the reality of the physical silver market. They have been perpetuating this fraud on a massive scale for years. They have kept the regulators at bay by having their boys actually become the regulators. They know full well that they are trading 100 paper ounces to 1 physical ounces. They are doing this because it is easy money to make now. During this mentality shift they will change with the wind and be first in line for the real metal that they are in control of. These banksters will most likely shift their losing silver short positions on to some other shell company,pension fund,the Federal Reserve or most likely the tax payers. These former silver shorts could ride the physical silver market all the way up."

I want to have all the physical I can get when (if) this happens.

Tesla · Jul 14, 2011 - 1:27pm

Maybe we can burn these in our gas tanks?

Cant buy much any more with them anymore... And it's only getting worse (thanks bankers!)

TheGoodDoctor Doctor J · Jul 14, 2011 - 1:37pm

@Doc J I want to have all

@Doc J

I want to have all the physical I can get when (if) this happens.

Just a matter of time. The greed will be too overwhelming for them to pass up. It's not an "if" it's a when.

bullwhip29 · Jul 14, 2011 - 1:37pm

@ TexAsh

Re: Silver raid now?

No, the monkeys are currently busy with their equity levitation act.

Maybe the raids we are so afraid of will come tomorrow? or perhaps at much higher levels? Maybe some of us have got this all wrong and Au overshoots the old high by more than just a few bucks? Dunno anymore...

Or maybe we get the patented double whammy from the EE today whereby they ramp stocks and crush commodities simultaneously?

rdisrael · Jul 14, 2011 - 1:51pm

gold price

Scott j,

Good post , but gold is still up today off its highs but still around 1588 .do you still see a pullback tomorrow or in the next few days .

colonelangus · Jul 14, 2011 - 1:54pm

fed note softener

I've just invented a new solution to soak fed notes in, it softens the paper to the extent that it is much more comfortable to the bum and surrounding areas while circling your anus in search of cling ons. Think it'll catch on? Without the soaking fed notes remind me of bernanks beard rubbing my bum.[hmmm, that might not be so bad now that I think of it] lol

Tesla · Jul 14, 2011 - 2:22pm

@ColonelAngus

Is it true? What they say about you??

https://www.ebaumsworld.com/video/watch/665455/

Irene · Jul 14, 2011 - 2:24pm

Let Them Eat Cake! Gotta luv

Let Them Eat Cake!

Gotta luv Drudge. https://drudgereport.com/

Bozzz · Jul 14, 2011 - 2:26pm

The herd mentality

I’ve had another experience that made me think.

My wife and I were on the Texas AM campus for a two day orientation with my daughter; being it was new to the 100 families in our group, it was the blind leading the blind at times.

What I found amusing was how lost we became in this, virtual city. At times we would need to take a bus to the next segment of the orientation, the bus driver would drop us off, and we all would kind of stand around looking at our maps waiting for someone to make a move. None of us knew exactly where to go so the first family to start walking would cause the rest of the “herd” to follow; especially if they walked with confidence. Sometimes we headed in the right direction, sometimes not.

On one stop I leaned over and asked my wife…If we started walking as if we knew where to go, but actually circle the block back around to this same bus stop, do you think we could trick the “herd” into making two trips around the block with us. (Probably not, but it was a funny thought)

Too me, this was a classical example of the “herd mentality”. In finance the talking heads on CNBC, FOX, MSNBC, or whoever is covering the day’s market action fits the head line story to the market action, and the “herd” for the most part just follows along.

It is not until you educate yourself or find someone willing to step up (the Turd) and have courage to speak the truth do you realize what exactly is going on.

Nick Elway · Jul 14, 2011 - 3:05pm
Shill · Jul 14, 2011 - 3:22pm

Cuts

So $1.5 trillion in cuts, ok sure. Take note folks this will be massive Dollar devaluation on a grand scale. Think inflation and start getting your house in order its coming in a big way. 1.5 trillion over ten years which is 150 billion a year which is 1 tenth of our annual deficit spending right now and we want to increase our credit limit, i.e. raise the debt ceiling, so we can accrue more debt beginning in August.

Makes perfect sense to a heavily tanned politician.

SilverTree · Jul 14, 2011 - 3:23pm

We are so Foked

We are so Fokedno

ScottJ · Jul 14, 2011 - 3:26pm

Yes I see a possible pullback

Yes, I see a down turn coming... probably lasts into Friday morning... unless some wacky news comes.

It is happening right now in gold (I am assuming), from the highs at 1595, we have started to move downwards with lower highs and lower lows. If we breach ~1580 and especially 1578, I would be pretty sure that this will be confirmed. I am expecting it to get as low as 1550 (but not necessarily), just because that would be solid support and the EE like to shake the tree before they let it flourish. The move up to 45$ in silver will be swift from the next mini correction as gold moves to new highs by next week on US debt ceiling/euro problems?

tmosley · Jul 14, 2011 - 3:30pm

The air of desperation has

The air of desperation has never been so thick as it is now. Stay out of paper. Who knows what they will do? Just stack physical at these still super cheap sale prices.

Tom L · Jul 14, 2011 - 3:32pm

HUI Re-Test

So far, it looks like the HUI re-test of 560 is holding. 28 minutes til the close. I'll feel really good if that level holds through to the close.

Ta,

Shill · Jul 14, 2011 - 3:33pm

When

When you leave out "C" corruption, all the results look good.

Rally on, just make sure you pick the right Rally.

raulv · Jul 14, 2011 - 3:33pm

I dont know if you guys saw

I dont know if you guys saw this article

https://seekingalpha.com/article/279410-gold-vs-fed-balance-sheet

He tried to give 1 oz of Gold value by comparing the US Monetary base vs 1 oz of Gold through time.

The results are impressive!

No wonder why FOFOA is 100% right.

Disclaimer:
I'm 100% Physical Gold (and love every f*cking minute of it)

NCOT · Jul 14, 2011 - 3:37pm

IF

If silver had not gone up to 39.40 today and just to say 38.80, people would not be moaning as much I feel. 

And silver would still be UP on 24 hours ago.

You would still be lucky if it only goes back to 36.

Don't be greedy, pigs get slaughtered.

(Where as PIIGS default on their loans)

Tom L raulv · Jul 14, 2011 - 3:40pm

Gold/Balance Sheet

Essentially, looking at his chart, the run up in Gold since the Bailout has been nothing more than an offsetting of the expansion of the Fed's Balance Sheet. If that is the case and the books need to be balanced, ala Santa's calculation[1], then we have approximately a 10 fold move in the PoG in front of us to match the 1980 high which achieved the same thing.

Yet another way of looking at the same thing. Cool, thanks for the link.

Ta,

[1] - PoG needed to balance the US books = [unhedged Foriegn Reserves] / [oz of Gold held by Treasury] at this point that works out to between 12.5 and 13.5K / oz.

LongGoldLongSilver · Jul 14, 2011 - 3:46pm

COT

Just follow the money, the big money. https://www.economicfreefall.com/2011/07/gold-and-silver-update.html Everything is set for a launch. Time decides when. Maybe it already started?

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