Wising Up

Tue, Jul 12, 2011 - 11:47am

As I type this at 11:21 EDT, it appears that the NY gold buyers may have wised up a little bit. Instead of buying ahead of the London fix, it almost looks like some decided to wait until after 11:00. I have a last of 1553.20. Let's see what the good guys can accomplish in the next couple of hours.

Speaking of The Good Guys, how about that lovely little FUBM in gold yesterday? Don't let the acronym fool you. The FUBM is a very important technical feature. It shows two significant things:

1) EE concern about rising price caused them to violently, maliciously raid. Their nervousness is bullish.

2) Our side's overwhelming demand drives price right back up to where it started. No "running for the hills" or "selling avalanche". Nope. PM bulls are getting their cajones back.

In fact, the selloff was so brazen and the comeback so impressive that I'm about to declare the doldrums to be over. About to...but not yet. Let's see what today brings. Ideally, gold will continue higher in NY (last now is 1553.70) and close near or above the old all-time closing high from 5/2 at 1558.40. IF it can do this, the next target will be to trade through and close above the intraday high of 1578. WHEN that happens, it'll be off to the races. Is it time for optimism? Yes. Could Santa and Turk end up being right? Of course. We'll know very soon.

Silver continues to frustrate and annoy. If I could print a chart for you, it would be a 3-hour silver. You can clearly see the fear in the eyes of Monkeys at 36.80. They'd do anything to keep it below there and, for a while, they'll try. They won't succeed, however, and silver will eventually trade much higher. However, don't get ahead of yourself and act in haste. As hoped, it found really good support around $35.20 but now needs to get back above $36 or it risks rolling back over. A violation of yesterday's lows near 34.80 would likely send it back down toward 33.50. Yikes! So, watch silver closely and stay nimble. The Forces of Darkness are well aware of the importance of keeping silver below $37. Don't be a hero and try to take them out all by yourself.

We are getting good help from DrC and crude, however. Copper was in a little downtrend on the hourly chart but it bottomed right where it should near 432 and now looks OK. Crude fell all the way to 93.55 overnight but is now back above the all-important $96.

As I close, gold continues to hang in there at 1553. Keep a close eye on it. Thank you for your patience with my lack of technical capability this week. Things should return to "normal" by Friday. Have a great day! TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Jul 12, 2011 - 12:12pm


Any comments on The Wizard of Oz video posted here on Saturday ... the statement that it doesn't matter what money is just as long as the quantity is controlled by someone other than the banks, and no fractional reserve lending? Also the video stated that the quantity of money dropped worldwide by 40 per cent in 2007-08. Is that factual? I am suspicious about the whole line of reasoning presented in the video.

Edit ... This post should have been in current events where this subject is being discussed.

Jul 12, 2011 - 12:15pm


Like a fat Sumo Wrestler sitting on a schoolboy, silver looks to be pinned to the mat by EE. Oh sure, it's allowed to squirm, trade up a couple of dollars, trade down a couple of dollars to make it look like there is still some legitimate fight. But it is still not allowed to trade beyond the EE's pre-conceived price. Silver can "tap-out" by trading decidedly lower into the abyss, then and only then will the fat-ass EE remove itself. But then silver must dare not get up off the mat and re-assert itself or else.....Or else the fat-ass EE will pounce again.

Jul 12, 2011 - 12:20pm

This is the most

This is the most optimistically bullish I've heard you sound since the last week of April, TF.

I sure hope you held on to those pesky 1550 August gold calls that you unnecessarily beat yourself up about. ;)

And you're right about silver...but for your expert technical analysis, I have this to offer: it might be developing an inverse H&S. Bad news for the bad guys, if it can complete it. Thanks and keep it up!

Jul 12, 2011 - 12:21pm

Hey y'all...

Can anyone please tell me which forum JoeKa posts on most of the time? Since we went to the new website I haven't seen many of his posts on the main page. Me and Joe go way back to the beginning of Turd Town and I got used to waking up to his overnight posts from Singapore. I know the guy is posting his butt off, my man is usually the hat tip leader (along with Eric the Original)

Thanks in advance for the steer.

Jul 12, 2011 - 12:32pm

You want Ag optimism???

Well, here's a lot more... the KWN audio interview with James Dines. Excerpts from this were quoted in the recent KWN blog entry titled "Dines predicts $300 to $500 p/oz Silver"


Jul 12, 2011 - 12:34pm

@ewc58, you can find where

@ewc58, you can find where people are commenting by clicking their username and then clicking the "History" tab in their user profile. You can find JoeKa's here: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/users/joeka/track

I think he most often comments on Pailin's Trading Corner: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forum/pailins-trading-corner/242

Jul 12, 2011 - 12:36pm

Risk on .. risk off

Risk on - equities, silver and other commodities up; gold down.

Risk off - gold up; equities, silver and other commodities down.

Hmmm... convinced yet that you Silver-bugs are holding the wrong metal? Silver is just another speculative commodity. Buy gold.

bim jeam ewc58
Jul 12, 2011 - 12:37pm


Silver Forum.

He does the nite shift at Pailin's Trading Corner

Jul 12, 2011 - 12:37pm

Jo ka posts

In Pailins Corner under silver miners

Jul 12, 2011 - 12:39pm

EE Struggling Today...So Far

They're trying mightily to keep a lid on the upwards trend despite repeated attempts to take the PM's down.

Ya' think they saved the biggest attack for last? We'll find out pretty soon. I can't see them just letting up at this point.

Maybe we'll get some short covering. If I'm a short in the PM's the last week or so, I've got to be seriously thinking of covering and getting out.

Subscribe or login to read all comments.


Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 8/5

8/5 9:45 ET Markit services PMI
8/5 10:00 ET ISM services PMI
8/6 10:00 ET Job Openings
8/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
8/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index

Key Economic Events Week of 7/29

7/30 8:30 ET Personal Inc/Spending & Core Inflation
7/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
7/31 8:15 ET ADP employment
7/31 2:00 pm ET FOMC Fedlines
7/31 2:30 pm ET CGP presser
8/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
8/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
8/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
8/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 7/22

7/23 10:00 ET Existing home sales
7/23 10:00 ET Richmond Fed Manu Idx
7/24 9:45 ET flash Markit PMIs
7/25 8:00 ET Count Draghi/ECB policy meeting
7/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
7/25 8:30 ET Wholesale Inventories
7/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP first guess

Key Economic Events Week of 7/15

7/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed Index
7/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Import Price Index
7/16 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
7/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
7/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
7/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
7/19 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 7/8

7/9 8:45 ET Fed Stress Conference, three Goon speeches
7/10 8:30 ET CGP Hump-Hawk prepared remarks
7/10 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk House
7/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
7/10 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/11 8:30 ET CPI
7/11 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk Senate
7/11 12:30 ET Goon Williams
7/12 8:30 ET PPI

Key Economic Events Week of 7/1

7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
7/2 6:35 ET Goon Williams
7/3 8:15 ET ADP June employment
7/3 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
7/3 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
7/3 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
7/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
7/4 US Market Holiday
7/5 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 6/24

6/25 10:00 ET New Home Sales
6/25 1:00 pm ET Chief Goon Powell
6/25 5:30 pm ET Goon Bullard
6/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
6/27 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/28 8:30 ET Personal Income and Consumer Spending
6/28 8:30 ET Core Inflation
6/28 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 6/17

6/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
6/19 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/19 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
6/21 9:45 ET Markit flash June PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 6/10

6/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
6/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
6/13 8:30 ET Import Price Index
6/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
6/14 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
6/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Forum Discussion

by NW VIEW, Aug 18, 2019 - 4:18pm
by NW VIEW, Aug 18, 2019 - 1:17pm
by sierra skier, Aug 17, 2019 - 7:14pm
by sierra skier, Aug 17, 2019 - 8:30am
by Boggs, Aug 16, 2019 - 7:46pm