Wising Up

Tue, Jul 12, 2011 - 11:47am

As I type this at 11:21 EDT, it appears that the NY gold buyers may have wised up a little bit. Instead of buying ahead of the London fix, it almost looks like some decided to wait until after 11:00. I have a last of 1553.20. Let's see what the good guys can accomplish in the next couple of hours.

Speaking of The Good Guys, how about that lovely little FUBM in gold yesterday? Don't let the acronym fool you. The FUBM is a very important technical feature. It shows two significant things:

1) EE concern about rising price caused them to violently, maliciously raid. Their nervousness is bullish.

2) Our side's overwhelming demand drives price right back up to where it started. No "running for the hills" or "selling avalanche". Nope. PM bulls are getting their cajones back.

In fact, the selloff was so brazen and the comeback so impressive that I'm about to declare the doldrums to be over. About to...but not yet. Let's see what today brings. Ideally, gold will continue higher in NY (last now is 1553.70) and close near or above the old all-time closing high from 5/2 at 1558.40. IF it can do this, the next target will be to trade through and close above the intraday high of 1578. WHEN that happens, it'll be off to the races. Is it time for optimism? Yes. Could Santa and Turk end up being right? Of course. We'll know very soon.

Silver continues to frustrate and annoy. If I could print a chart for you, it would be a 3-hour silver. You can clearly see the fear in the eyes of Monkeys at 36.80. They'd do anything to keep it below there and, for a while, they'll try. They won't succeed, however, and silver will eventually trade much higher. However, don't get ahead of yourself and act in haste. As hoped, it found really good support around $35.20 but now needs to get back above $36 or it risks rolling back over. A violation of yesterday's lows near 34.80 would likely send it back down toward 33.50. Yikes! So, watch silver closely and stay nimble. The Forces of Darkness are well aware of the importance of keeping silver below $37. Don't be a hero and try to take them out all by yourself.

We are getting good help from DrC and crude, however. Copper was in a little downtrend on the hourly chart but it bottomed right where it should near 432 and now looks OK. Crude fell all the way to 93.55 overnight but is now back above the all-important $96.

As I close, gold continues to hang in there at 1553. Keep a close eye on it. Thank you for your patience with my lack of technical capability this week. Things should return to "normal" by Friday. Have a great day! TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Jul 12, 2011 - 4:22pm


Quite possibly your are spot on.

But, can we at least enjoy a celebration today? I think we are due one and should probably take them when we can. Maybe just a small one SW?

Jul 12, 2011 - 4:19pm

funny stuff

The Empire caps Gold never allowing much more than 1% moves. I sense alot of euphoria on this board which is understandable. But remember the last time we were at 1560 and at 1575 before that? The momentum players climbed in and got absolutely hammered. Everyone was quoting Turk and Sinclair and Embry as if they were Jefferson,Washington and Franklin.

I have been selling off slices into this rise. I would love to see it higher and I love the strength GDX and GDXJ are showing. But to time it day to day when I am dealing with a criminally run operation? After the waterfalls I have seen in Gold following every important euphoric high? No way. The Great and almighty Turd himself climbed in with some August gold options not long ago. Remember that period around the 1550 area? When Gold was showing great strength?

Jul 12, 2011 - 4:07pm

We Are Living ...

...in Interesting Times as the old saying goes.

@LaMachinna =] glad to be your first (um, hat tip ...I mean) it really HAS been an interesting few days.

I think the EE is responsible for the 1548 increase in OI (paper silver fire sale yesterday) but the July 20 contract OI increase = NOT the EE there at all to my thinking! QE3 buz and serious Euro woes are driving a potential giant move!

Bullwhip29 has a very good point regarding a possible unprecedented EE shock and awe smash down. I wonder if that hasn't already been thwarted by todays spike back up... But then think again as we ARE back struggling at 36 again - so...

Gonna be a pivotal economic moment playing out in front of us this week for sure.


BTW I really enjoy SilverTree's always awesome graphics, thanks man!

Jul 12, 2011 - 3:46pm



Holy shit, that guy is pathetic. And you call yourself President of the United States? A lame stuttering indifferent presence like that, and there was a point in time when they would have run you out of the White House. No wonder they call you "Obama", because you sir are not worth being called "Mr. President".

- Markus

Jul 12, 2011 - 3:37pm

“Most” FOMC members said the

“Most” FOMC members said the rise in inflation would“prove transitory” and that over the medium term inflation would “be subdued as long as commodity prices did not continue to rise rapidly and longer-term inflation expectations remained stable.”

So now we have confirmation. That's why commodities are down. They need it to launch QE3.

Chain of reasoning: slowing economy, growing unemployment, but stable inflation expectation and no rising commodity prices = further stimulus warranted.

- Markus

Key Economic Events Week of 7/6

7/6 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
7/6 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
7/7 10:00 ET Job openings
7/9 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
7/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
7/10 8:30 ET PPI for June

Jul 12, 2011 - 3:34pm

Double top in gold?

Maybe, but every up-trending chart shows a double top for a day or so as the trend continues. It just depends on how many traders set their profit-taking stops right at that prior level. The Market Forecast chart (Tor S) doesn't indicate a top yet, nor does the slow stochastic. I am looking for a new high tomorrow and a bit more on the upside, then a pullback to a higher low--perhasp a test of 1550 as support. But events in Europe are changing things daily...

Jul 12, 2011 - 3:33pm
Jul 12, 2011 - 3:29pm

Does anyone have a truck I can borrow?

The only gear I need is reverse, because I'm going to BACK IT UP.

Seriously though I will be happy when silver really catches a bid above ~$39.50 and gets the rest of our physical out from underwater. Some of it's been down there so long I think the coral is getting attached to it!

Jul 12, 2011 - 3:24pm

An alternate plan b

Having some physical silver, I wanted to get some "insurance" against large price drops. I looked at futures options, but they are more expensive than my budget could handle. So, I looked at SLV options. I bought a few "out of the money" puts (strike prices 5 to 6 dollars out of the money). (BTW, one SLV options contract is for 100 shares). A day later it ocurred to me also to buy a few out of the money call options in case silver rises substantially. In both cases I picked October options. If silver prices go nowhere, both sets of options will lose money. On the other hand if silver prices move substantially in either direction, the investment should be profitable. YMMV

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Key Economic Events Week of 7/6

7/6 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
7/6 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
7/7 10:00 ET Job openings
7/9 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
7/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
7/10 8:30 ET PPI for June

Key Economic Events Week of 6/29

6/30 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
6/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
6/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
6/30 12:30 ET CGP and SSHW to Capitol Hill
7/1 8:15 ET ADP Employment
7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
7/1 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
7/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 6/22

6/22 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
6/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
6/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for June
6/23 10:00 ET New home sales
6/25 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
6/26 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Spending
6/26 8:30 ET Core inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 6/15

6/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
6/16 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
6/16 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US Senate
6/16 4:00 pm ET Goon Chlamydia speech
6/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts
6/17 12:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US House
6/18 8:30 ET Initial Jobless Claims
6/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
6/19 8:30 ET Current Account Deficit
6/19 1:00 pm ET CGP and Mester conference

Key Economic Events Week of 6/8

6/9 10:00 ET Job openings
6/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
6/10 8:30 ET CPI for May
6/10 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/10 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/11 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
6/11 8:30 ET PPI for May
6/12 8:30 ET Import price index
6/12 10:00 ET Consumer sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 5/25

5/26 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
5/26 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
5/27 2:00 ET Fed Beige Book
5/28 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
5/28 8:30 ET Durable Goods
5/29 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
5/29 8:30 ET Core Inflation
5/29 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 5/18

5/18 2:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/19 8:30 ET Housing starts
5/19 10:00 ET CGP and Mnuchin US Senate
5/20 10:00 ET Goon Bullard speech
5/20 2:00 ET April FOMC minutes
5/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
5/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for May
5/21 10:00 ET Goon Williams speech
5/21 1:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
5/21 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell speech

Key Economic Events Week of 5/11

5/11 12:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/11 12:30 ET Goon Evans speech
5/12 8:30 ET CPI
5/12 9:00 ET Goon Kashnkari speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Quarles speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Harker speech
5/12 5:00 ET Goon Mester speech
5/13 8:30 ET PPI
5/13 9:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speech
5/14 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims and import prices
5/14 1:00 ET Another Goon Kashnkari speech
5/14 6:00 ET Goon Kaplan speech
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State index
5/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 5/4

5/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
5/5 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
5/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
5/5 10:00 ET ISM Sevrice PMI
5/6 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
5/7 8:30 ET Productivity
5/8 8:30 ET BLSBS
5/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 4/27

4/28 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
4/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
4/29 8:30 ET Q1 GDP first guess
4/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
4/29 2:30 ET CGP presser
4/30 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
4/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
5/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
5/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI

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