Wising Up

114
Tue, Jul 12, 2011 - 11:47am

As I type this at 11:21 EDT, it appears that the NY gold buyers may have wised up a little bit. Instead of buying ahead of the London fix, it almost looks like some decided to wait until after 11:00. I have a last of 1553.20. Let's see what the good guys can accomplish in the next couple of hours.

Speaking of The Good Guys, how about that lovely little FUBM in gold yesterday? Don't let the acronym fool you. The FUBM is a very important technical feature. It shows two significant things:

1) EE concern about rising price caused them to violently, maliciously raid. Their nervousness is bullish.

2) Our side's overwhelming demand drives price right back up to where it started. No "running for the hills" or "selling avalanche". Nope. PM bulls are getting their cajones back.

In fact, the selloff was so brazen and the comeback so impressive that I'm about to declare the doldrums to be over. About to...but not yet. Let's see what today brings. Ideally, gold will continue higher in NY (last now is 1553.70) and close near or above the old all-time closing high from 5/2 at 1558.40. IF it can do this, the next target will be to trade through and close above the intraday high of 1578. WHEN that happens, it'll be off to the races. Is it time for optimism? Yes. Could Santa and Turk end up being right? Of course. We'll know very soon.

Silver continues to frustrate and annoy. If I could print a chart for you, it would be a 3-hour silver. You can clearly see the fear in the eyes of Monkeys at 36.80. They'd do anything to keep it below there and, for a while, they'll try. They won't succeed, however, and silver will eventually trade much higher. However, don't get ahead of yourself and act in haste. As hoped, it found really good support around $35.20 but now needs to get back above $36 or it risks rolling back over. A violation of yesterday's lows near 34.80 would likely send it back down toward 33.50. Yikes! So, watch silver closely and stay nimble. The Forces of Darkness are well aware of the importance of keeping silver below $37. Don't be a hero and try to take them out all by yourself.

We are getting good help from DrC and crude, however. Copper was in a little downtrend on the hourly chart but it bottomed right where it should near 432 and now looks OK. Crude fell all the way to 93.55 overnight but is now back above the all-important $96.

As I close, gold continues to hang in there at 1553. Keep a close eye on it. Thank you for your patience with my lack of technical capability this week. Things should return to "normal" by Friday. Have a great day! TF

About the Author

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  114 Comments

sevin
Jul 12, 2011 - 11:55am

Keep stacking the phyzz! No

Keep stacking the phyzz! No paper trading for me!

jss_NY
Jul 12, 2011 - 11:55am

Good reminders

These are good reminders on Silver. We can't overdrive our headlights.

theworldhaschanged
Jul 12, 2011 - 11:57am

no stops...the raids are a

no stops...the raids are a shake-out, and feeble at that. Long options on paper gold...profits go to physical.

crackor
Jul 12, 2011 - 12:00pm

First

Well I am still on the big learning curve here and have little to say other than good work Turd.

Got an email from James West yesterday and he liquidated most stock and converted to bullion.

I maybe looking in the same direction.

Rui
Jul 12, 2011 - 12:00pm

It's encouraging to see mining shares holding up

... despite silver's weakness. Remember it's the other way around in April that turned out to be a give-away of the coming big shenanigans. We are closer to the end of the correction than to the start.

crackorcrackor
Jul 12, 2011 - 12:01pm

correction, 'not first' or

correction, 'not first' or fourth for that matter

grvdigga
Jul 12, 2011 - 12:02pm

Nightmare

Gold up, silver going sideways, dollar up, crisis in Europe (of course all ove,r but attention focussed on Europe for now). Its becoming a nightmare to predict where it will go short term, if you are day trading.

LongGoldLongSilver
Jul 12, 2011 - 12:09pm

Miners?

Would be fun to hear some opinions on miners with good potential!? I like Aurcana a lot https://bit.ly/pmThEY

LongGoldLongSilver
Jul 12, 2011 - 12:11pm

miner forums

Please check the forums.

There are specific forums for gold and silver miners. LOTS of great info there!

LongGoldLongSilver
Jul 12, 2011 - 12:12pm

Thanks!

Oh, thanks. Didn't even think about that. I'll check it out!=)

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/21

10/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
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10/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
10/24 10:00 ET New home sales
10/25 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
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10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
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10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
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9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
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Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
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9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
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8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
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8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
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