Wising Up

Tue, Jul 12, 2011 - 11:47am

As I type this at 11:21 EDT, it appears that the NY gold buyers may have wised up a little bit. Instead of buying ahead of the London fix, it almost looks like some decided to wait until after 11:00. I have a last of 1553.20. Let's see what the good guys can accomplish in the next couple of hours.

Speaking of The Good Guys, how about that lovely little FUBM in gold yesterday? Don't let the acronym fool you. The FUBM is a very important technical feature. It shows two significant things:

1) EE concern about rising price caused them to violently, maliciously raid. Their nervousness is bullish.

2) Our side's overwhelming demand drives price right back up to where it started. No "running for the hills" or "selling avalanche". Nope. PM bulls are getting their cajones back.

In fact, the selloff was so brazen and the comeback so impressive that I'm about to declare the doldrums to be over. About to...but not yet. Let's see what today brings. Ideally, gold will continue higher in NY (last now is 1553.70) and close near or above the old all-time closing high from 5/2 at 1558.40. IF it can do this, the next target will be to trade through and close above the intraday high of 1578. WHEN that happens, it'll be off to the races. Is it time for optimism? Yes. Could Santa and Turk end up being right? Of course. We'll know very soon.

Silver continues to frustrate and annoy. If I could print a chart for you, it would be a 3-hour silver. You can clearly see the fear in the eyes of Monkeys at 36.80. They'd do anything to keep it below there and, for a while, they'll try. They won't succeed, however, and silver will eventually trade much higher. However, don't get ahead of yourself and act in haste. As hoped, it found really good support around $35.20 but now needs to get back above $36 or it risks rolling back over. A violation of yesterday's lows near 34.80 would likely send it back down toward 33.50. Yikes! So, watch silver closely and stay nimble. The Forces of Darkness are well aware of the importance of keeping silver below $37. Don't be a hero and try to take them out all by yourself.

We are getting good help from DrC and crude, however. Copper was in a little downtrend on the hourly chart but it bottomed right where it should near 432 and now looks OK. Crude fell all the way to 93.55 overnight but is now back above the all-important $96.

As I close, gold continues to hang in there at 1553. Keep a close eye on it. Thank you for your patience with my lack of technical capability this week. Things should return to "normal" by Friday. Have a great day! TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Jul 12, 2011 - 11:55am

Keep stacking the phyzz! No

Keep stacking the phyzz! No paper trading for me!

Jul 12, 2011 - 11:55am

Good reminders

These are good reminders on Silver. We can't overdrive our headlights.

Jul 12, 2011 - 11:57am

no stops...the raids are a

no stops...the raids are a shake-out, and feeble at that. Long options on paper gold...profits go to physical.

Jul 12, 2011 - 12:00pm


Well I am still on the big learning curve here and have little to say other than good work Turd.

Got an email from James West yesterday and he liquidated most stock and converted to bullion.

I maybe looking in the same direction.

Jul 12, 2011 - 12:00pm

It's encouraging to see mining shares holding up

... despite silver's weakness. Remember it's the other way around in April that turned out to be a give-away of the coming big shenanigans. We are closer to the end of the correction than to the start.

crackor crackor
Jul 12, 2011 - 12:01pm

correction, 'not first' or

correction, 'not first' or fourth for that matter

Jul 12, 2011 - 12:02pm


Gold up, silver going sideways, dollar up, crisis in Europe (of course all ove,r but attention focussed on Europe for now). Its becoming a nightmare to predict where it will go short term, if you are day trading.

Jul 12, 2011 - 12:09pm


Would be fun to hear some opinions on miners with good potential!? I like Aurcana a lot https://bit.ly/pmThEY

Jul 12, 2011 - 12:11pm

miner forums

Please check the forums.

There are specific forums for gold and silver miners. LOTS of great info there!

Jul 12, 2011 - 12:12pm


Oh, thanks. Didn't even think about that. I'll check it out!=)

Jul 12, 2011 - 12:12pm


Any comments on The Wizard of Oz video posted here on Saturday ... the statement that it doesn't matter what money is just as long as the quantity is controlled by someone other than the banks, and no fractional reserve lending? Also the video stated that the quantity of money dropped worldwide by 40 per cent in 2007-08. Is that factual? I am suspicious about the whole line of reasoning presented in the video.

Edit ... This post should have been in current events where this subject is being discussed.

Jul 12, 2011 - 12:15pm


Like a fat Sumo Wrestler sitting on a schoolboy, silver looks to be pinned to the mat by EE. Oh sure, it's allowed to squirm, trade up a couple of dollars, trade down a couple of dollars to make it look like there is still some legitimate fight. But it is still not allowed to trade beyond the EE's pre-conceived price. Silver can "tap-out" by trading decidedly lower into the abyss, then and only then will the fat-ass EE remove itself. But then silver must dare not get up off the mat and re-assert itself or else.....Or else the fat-ass EE will pounce again.

Jul 12, 2011 - 12:20pm

This is the most

This is the most optimistically bullish I've heard you sound since the last week of April, TF.

I sure hope you held on to those pesky 1550 August gold calls that you unnecessarily beat yourself up about. ;)

And you're right about silver...but for your expert technical analysis, I have this to offer: it might be developing an inverse H&S. Bad news for the bad guys, if it can complete it. Thanks and keep it up!

Jul 12, 2011 - 12:21pm

Hey y'all...

Can anyone please tell me which forum JoeKa posts on most of the time? Since we went to the new website I haven't seen many of his posts on the main page. Me and Joe go way back to the beginning of Turd Town and I got used to waking up to his overnight posts from Singapore. I know the guy is posting his butt off, my man is usually the hat tip leader (along with Eric the Original)

Thanks in advance for the steer.

Jul 12, 2011 - 12:32pm

You want Ag optimism???

Well, here's a lot more... the KWN audio interview with James Dines. Excerpts from this were quoted in the recent KWN blog entry titled "Dines predicts $300 to $500 p/oz Silver"


Jul 12, 2011 - 12:34pm

@ewc58, you can find where

@ewc58, you can find where people are commenting by clicking their username and then clicking the "History" tab in their user profile. You can find JoeKa's here: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/users/joeka/track

I think he most often comments on Pailin's Trading Corner: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forum/pailins-trading-corner/242

Jul 12, 2011 - 12:36pm

Risk on .. risk off

Risk on - equities, silver and other commodities up; gold down.

Risk off - gold up; equities, silver and other commodities down.

Hmmm... convinced yet that you Silver-bugs are holding the wrong metal? Silver is just another speculative commodity. Buy gold.

bim jeam ewc58
Jul 12, 2011 - 12:37pm


Silver Forum.

He does the nite shift at Pailin's Trading Corner

Jul 12, 2011 - 12:37pm

Jo ka posts

In Pailins Corner under silver miners

Jul 12, 2011 - 12:39pm

EE Struggling Today...So Far

They're trying mightily to keep a lid on the upwards trend despite repeated attempts to take the PM's down.

Ya' think they saved the biggest attack for last? We'll find out pretty soon. I can't see them just letting up at this point.

Maybe we'll get some short covering. If I'm a short in the PM's the last week or so, I've got to be seriously thinking of covering and getting out.

Jul 12, 2011 - 12:42pm

Thanks for

Joeka's whereablouts (murphy, bim), and how to find him (admin/moderator/Turd). Appreciate the help.

FogHorn LegHorn
Jul 12, 2011 - 12:42pm
Jul 12, 2011 - 12:48pm


Are you really one of those "all of one and none of the other" thinkers?

Clearly you felt the same way when Ag was $8. Too bad you ruled yourself out of a 500% rise in value based solely on a silly, ill-informed ideological stance. You're impressing no one with it.

Jul 12, 2011 - 12:50pm

Dollar up...Gold Up?!

Can you say positive for PM's!!

The European Banking System is coming unglued (Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Ireland .. France, Belgium ...not to mention Britain)

...and we see flight to the Dollar AND GOLD

THE EE is taking silver down ONLY due to their MASSIVE short position.... but the drain on physical is reaching a breaking point ...think Chinese water torture where the drip drip drip is silver coins draining the silver "reservoir"

The US is locked in a battle over raising their bloody debt ceiling by 2 TRILLION when their true liability is closer to 3.5 TRILLION when you factor in other commitments. When the world wakes up to the state of the US economy and the fact that the FED TODAY is leveraged worse than Lehman was....

The new Asian bullion exchange is now open (May) and is a fully physical market so price discovery is about to get interesting when they add silver contracts shortly.

Add to that the MASSIVE new ASIAN investment market demand that can now buy physical

I dearly hope the boyz take silver down even further so that those of us who stack physical can pile on some more...add in some stock and enjoy the fireworks yet to come this fall from our front row seat with our hand in the box of silver and gold "popcorn".

This get's crazier by the day as we watch the last gasps of a doomed trading platform (COMEX)...and a government hell bent on defending their currency against all threats even if it means breaking the law in the name of national security by letting the fed back liability in many of those shorts (I believe JPMorgan got the Fed to accept future liability as part of the deal to take over Bear Sterns book) AND probably force the CFTC to remain inactive despite blatent market manipulation.

Ever wonder why there have been NO COMMENTS of any kind about the silve take downs when many including Sprott call them out on it?

keep stacking and hoping for some more dips!

Every ounce we buy...is 100 paper ounces they can't create

Jul 12, 2011 - 12:54pm

Oz Video

Put the currency in the hands of Nancy Pelosi? You answer that question - just a different kind of disaster. No, read FOFOA instead - Freegold is likely the answer. Alternately, a sound money based on the price of gold tends to be stable for a long time, but the problem is that eventually people will give in and move back off of it, just as the USA has done before. Still it would make things work for a generation or two. Freegold is a better solution, as it can work world-wide and allows for Nations to still use fiat currencies, only they are constrained by reality (read his site).

Jul 12, 2011 - 12:56pm

AU & AG pushing slowly up all day

slow, but steadily up

Jul 12, 2011 - 12:57pm


We all know that government takes capital from the market, and redistributes it poorly. (inefficiently) This is the first "good" graphic I have seen to visualize how much of our economy is now involved. The "show" in Washington will soon play out, and I am thinking that piece of the pie will grow in size. I am going to try to link and redistribute this info. to as many as possible, just as I try to do with this graphic courtesy of the FED. I find it important to inform as many as possible as simply as possible of the facts. https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/BASE Everyone I have shown this to has been surprised.

Jul 12, 2011 - 12:58pm

Thanks Turd

What a roller coaster ride, for silver and oil especially!

Try not to puke up your stack - no matter what the crooked bangsters pull!

Jul 12, 2011 - 1:06pm

Hey, this will be fun. I bet

Hey, this will be fun. I bet one silver ounce, honor on the line if you or I don't pay, that another FUBM comes around yesterday's high?

I bet you that it will happy again. I prefer Wolf's, Grizzlies, American Eagles and Maples in that order.

*Limited to 1 bet total

Jul 12, 2011 - 1:08pm

save the anxiety

Save the anxiety and buy the dips.

Oil dip good buying op. Corn dip good buying op. DBA dip good buying op. Silver,Gold,miner dips, good buying op. Ung dips, good buying op.

Sugar running mad now after dipping way down just 2-3 weeks ago.


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