Paging Dr. C

Thu, Jul 7, 2011 - 3:27pm

Just a quick note to follow up on something we discussed last week.

If you haven't noticed, DrC is kickin ass and takin names. Up over 2% today alone and it has crossed a very important technical barrier. IF it can consolidate and hang here...and I think it looks to be breaking out and rolling higher at almost exactly the same time as last year. Here, see for yourself:

So, why is this important? As mentioned in the post from last week, copper has a track record as a leading indicator of future PM price. While copper rallied about 45% in the time period listed above, gold and silver had huge gains, too. From 8/1/10 to 1/1/11, gold rallied about 22%. In the same timeframe, silver rallied over 70%!

Similar performance in the remaining months of this year would take copper to nearly 600, gold to 1850 and silver to 62.

In summary, watch ole DrC very closely in the coming days and weeks. If it starts moving out to new highs above 465, it will be just another surefire indicator that the next UP move in the PMs will be explosive and amazing. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Jul 7, 2011 - 3:29pm

Hear, Hear! Quick buy some

Hear, Hear! Quick buy some gold!!

Jul 7, 2011 - 3:45pm

Intensifying soon... don't forget to mentally prepare

Fantastic source to help mentally expand your horizon: (Thanks Lottiedah)

(Part 1)

Anthony de Mello - Awareness pt.1 on waking up


Because this type of stuff is coming... :(

We must find ourselves before we can do anything else....

Jul 7, 2011 - 3:49pm

Dr. C is rarely talked about,

Dr. C is rarely talked about, but I like to follow it. $5.50-6.00 is not out of the question! Bringing Dr. C back to life. Thanks Turd!

Jul 7, 2011 - 3:58pm
Jul 7, 2011 - 4:00pm
Jul 7, 2011 - 4:01pm

A raid on the way?

Trading on the mining shares during the last 15 minutes seemed to indicate it.

Jul 7, 2011 - 4:04pm


I would argue that move in Copper last year correlated with the QEII announcement that came at their fun time conference out West. To anticipate this same pattern playing out this year imo the markets would have to be discounting QEIII perhaps?

Jul 7, 2011 - 4:16pm
Jul 7, 2011 - 4:23pm

Dr. C is "strong like Bull"....

said with a Russia accent.

Oil and Copper are telling me to buy now. We shall see.

Great follow up post TF. Big Thanks.

Will be a big time party if silver hits 67.

We might need a forum to plan a Vegas trip when Silver hits _____. (fill in the number 55, 67, 75)

Bay of Pigs
Jul 7, 2011 - 4:28pm

DrC and the PM's

Turd says "Similar performance in the remaining months of this year would take copper to nearly 600, gold to 1850 and silver to 62 ".

These are not outrageous projections at all, although some may think so. The fact of the matter is that continual currency debasement (QE/stimulus in whatever form), with massive deficits will provide the fuel to drive the metals higher. There are supply/demand issues to deal with as well, as the McGuire/China exchange story pointed out.

$1550 and $38-40 are clearly the defense lines for the cartel. A breach above these (a couple of strong closes) and we're off to the races again.

Santa Sinclair will see his $1650 this year. Just a matter of when.

Jul 7, 2011 - 4:43pm

Gold price forecast

Turd, what are thoughts on Martin Armstrong's outlook on gold prices into early 2012? He's had some good calls in the past.......? I find it hard to believe that gold lingers in the 1450 range (even into high 1300's) for the remainder of the year, however, maybe he is right that the big boys may make a good stab at the heart of the PM complex.

Jul 7, 2011 - 4:51pm

Jobs Data Fryday!

Customary to take PM's to the woodshed. Who can out guess the EE. Just buy your physical regularly and wait for the Keynesian CRASH.

Jul 7, 2011 - 5:43pm

golden turds, re: vegas trip

i like everything about the idea except the vegas part. vegas specializes in three things: prostitution, gambling, and drunkenness. that's not a city, it's a disease. north idaho's silver valley? silver city new mexico? silverton, colorado?

Jul 7, 2011 - 5:46pm

Vegas, Baby

@treefrog: "vegas specializes in three things: prostitution, gambling, and drunkenness."

You forgot all-you-can-eat buffets. :-)

Jul 7, 2011 - 5:55pm

I wish oh i wish you know,

I wish oh i wish you know, that i could see this world in unity. Yhea man each and every one would be free, nothing to worry about you know. No barriers no boundaries, nothing to hold us down. You see what i mean, yeha man this way it will be wonderful. yeha man it will be beautiful ....

Jul 7, 2011 - 5:56pm
Jul 7, 2011 - 6:17pm

calling Dr

does anyone recall the sumitomo copper trading scandal? a lovely event that turned me on to metals and mining.

Tarnished Copper is an excellent fiction mystery on the topic of mr 5 percent.

iPath Dow Jones-UBS Copper Subindex Total Return ETN

(Public, NYSE:JJC) I cant remember where I read this but JJC was suggested as a good ticker to keep an eye on copper trends. Looking for good things to come with a close above 59 by end of July. i thinkj that's what the article said.

Kiss-Calling Dr. Love
Jul 7, 2011 - 6:21pm



This is from my trading platform. Hope it helps.

Source Bureau of Labor Statistics (latest release)
Measures Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry;
Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, usually on the first Friday after the month ends;
Next Release Aug 5, 2011
FF Notes This is vital economic data released shortly after the month ends. The combination of importance and earliness makes for hefty market impacts;
Why Traders
Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity;
Also Called Non-Farm Payrolls, NFP, Employment Change;
Jul 7, 2011 - 6:23pm

Also tomorrow

Says next release Aug.5

Also being reported tomorrow BLS.

Jul 7, 2011 - 6:29pm

Thank you

Thank you, Average Joe!

Dr G
Jul 7, 2011 - 6:51pm

BLS stuff

@johnlong41 AND @averagejoe

On the first Friday of EVERY month (at 8:30 EDT) the BLS releases jobs data for the prior month.

ADP releases their employment report (which is typically a summary of the BLS report) usually 2-3 days prior to the BLS one. Many use the ADP data as a way to glimpse what the official BLS BS will say.

This happens every month like clockwork.

Dr G
Jul 7, 2011 - 6:52pm


Here is the June ADP report (, which basically says that unemployment is crappy but stabilizing a bit.

BLS report tomorrow should mirror that.

Eric Original
Jul 7, 2011 - 7:16pm


@treefrog: "vegas specializes in three things: prostitution, gambling, and drunkenness."

​You say that like it's a bad thing... :D

BillAuAg treefrog
Jul 7, 2011 - 7:29pm

Treefrog, For the very best


For the very best in dining, entertainment, lodging, car rentals, you name it, you'll have a very hard time matching Vegas.

San Francisco can't hold a candle to it. Unless your, well, you know...

Jul 7, 2011 - 7:34pm

600 on copper?

And I thought I was bullish :)

GoldenTurds treefrog
Jul 7, 2011 - 7:38pm

TreeFrog re Vegas Trip.

TreeFrog, Wow you are really thinking today. I like it. However, I had a buddy who lived in SilverCity NM. Not much to do except mountain bike, look for prostitutes, look for gambling and get drunk. (totally kidding, my buddy was a geologist for one of the copper mines in silver city.)

We can let Senior TF pick the town. Vegas has cheap rooms, cheap flights and plenty of convention/meeting space. But first we need Silver to hit 67!!


Jul 7, 2011 - 7:46pm

Expected good news on the reports

Wouldn't good news be good for PMs? Looking at how strong gold and silver surged this week, with more 'positive' economic news tomorrow will continue to bode well for oil and PMs. Don't see a slow down until maybe mid next week perhaps.

Jul 7, 2011 - 8:10pm

Jobs Report tomorrow!!!!

Er, so what?!!!

Do the unemployed buy or sell Silver maybe? ..what impact it will have (purportedly!) on the stock markets is lost on me! Will it impact Caterpillars sales? Maybe Apples? How about JPMorgue? Nope, Niet and just a little (JPM make socially disturbing profits shuffling foodstamps for their shop-front, the US Govt... socialism creates unemployment and unemployment creates profits for fascists, lovely!!)

Years of job reports and not a jot of difference to the markets it's made (even once)

Jul 7, 2011 - 9:19pm

With China about to shit a

With China about to shit a giant BRIC, I think the HG move is manipulation by you-know-who, for whatever nefarious reasons they may have. I'm not going to stand in front of it, but it will go back down, and I'd like to ride it back to the low 4s--just have to decide when enough is enough.

Don't forget the high of 4.65 was back in Feb, when the world was wildly bullish. All it's going to take is some bad news out of China which can't be ignored, and the bulls will race for the exits. A 6 handle is ludicrous!

P.S. No matter what the BLS says tomorrow, it will be spun as the greatest thing since sliced bread, ergo more short-term HG gains...

spudboy RedRover
Jul 7, 2011 - 9:20pm

Go here, JohnLong41

Or, simply type in "Economic Calendar, and you will see that they are offered at Bloomberg or at Yahoo as well as at Marketwatch.

If you are day trading they can oftentimes give you a heads up as to what the day will look like, but day trading is risky, so don't do it unless you have the psychological hardiness of a rhino! Good luck!


Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events Week of 4/22

4/22 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
4/23 10:00 ET New Home Sales
4/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
4/26 8:30 ET Q1 GDP first guess

Key Economic Events Week of 4/15

4/16 9:15 ET Cap Util and Ind Prod
4/17 8:30 ET Trade Deficit (Feb)
4/17 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
4/18 8:30 ET Retail Sales (March)
4/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
4/18 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Feb)
4/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 4/1

4/1 8:30 ET Retail Sales (Feb)
4/1 9:45 ET Markit & ISM Manu PMIs
4/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending (Feb)
4/1 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Jan)
4/2 8:30 ET Durable Goods (Feb)
4/3 9:45 ET Markit & ISM Services PMIs
4/5 8:30 ET BLSBS

Recent Comments

by sierra skier, Apr 22, 2019 - 10:47pm
by NW VIEW, Apr 22, 2019 - 10:09pm
by goldcom, Apr 22, 2019 - 9:54pm
by NW VIEW, Apr 22, 2019 - 8:58pm