Beware The Whipsaw

128
134
Wed, Jul 6, 2011 - 10:23am

Yes, I know that yesterday and today (so far) have been very fun. Yes, I know that the summer doldrums typically end with sharp rallies that seem to come from out of nowhere. Yes, I know that it's tempting to get all excited. Please don't, at least not yet.

It is very important that you keep your emotions in check and not get ahead of yourself. As discussed here last week, the doldrums almost seemed designed to reclaim from you all of the profits you made during the last run-up in price. I know it is extremely tempting to buy this rally. Unfortunately, anyone buying here will likely get whipsawed, especially with the BLSBS report coming up on Friday. DO NOT forget that the Forces of Evil almost always raid the PMs in the 24 hours that precede the report. Please be patient. There will be plenty of time to get all worked up and long. The time is just not yet. Let the PMs do some technical damage to the bears first. Gold needs to break out and through 1550. Silver needs to best not only 36 and 38 but 39.50, too. This doesn't mean you can't trade in the interim but you have to buy dips and sell rallies if you're going to survive and that takes discipline and fortitude. IF you think you have sufficient quantities of both, the go for it. If not, my advice to you is to continue to wait, watch and learn.

GOLD

You can clearly see in these two charts that the rally, though powerful, has not changed the technical picture at all. Gold is simply moving within its summer range. When it finally breaks through 1550-60, then you can get excited. Until then, take profits when you have them.

SILVER

Like gold, the rally has been terrific and, if you bought back on Friday like Mister Hyde, you've made quite a bit of jack. However, now is not the time to get greedy and let it ride. I told Hyde to take profits and I'd tell you to do the same. Keep your powder dry. Buy the next dip and sell the next rally until silver finally breaks back through $40.

CRUDE

As you know, I was expecting crude to turn around, just not this quickly. I really didn't think that crude would be back above $96 until mid-July, at the earliest. That it is back above so quickly is great but it also makes the rally a bit unstable. Do not be surprised to see a dip develop that would take price back toward 95 or even 94. However, having bested the 96 level, crude now looks set for a run back above $100. As it does, it will cause us to create a new acronym...the FUBO. (I'll let you guess what that means.)

As I close, price continues to hang in there. Gold is 1529 and silver is 35.81. Let's see where this heads today but, again, beware the EE and there desire to raid pre-BLSBS. Have a great day! TF

p.s. I need your assistance with something. This site is designed with a positive feedback loop via the "hat tip" button. Please do not use it to promote yourself. Those of you who are "self-tipping" are ruining the value of a tool which is designed to allow the reader/user to measure the credibility of the author. Thanks for your help.

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  128 Comments

SilverIsKing
Jul 6, 2011 - 10:32am

July 15th

That's the day highly leveraged trading in spot silver and gold ends for many in the US. I figure they'll cap the price of PMs at least until then. They surely don't want to let retail make some coin on a big run.

Tesla
Jul 6, 2011 - 10:33am

WORD = FUBO!

Thanks Turd

SilverTree
Jul 6, 2011 - 10:37am
103
SilverWealth
Jul 6, 2011 - 10:39am

thanks Turd

Thank you Turd for all of that. Peeling off more now, selling bits and pieces into strength. The take on the coming jobs report and how these hacks stuff the PM Market on the day before is a good one.

Cotton is on sale. Bal. Corn is on sale. For anyone interested. Thinning out positions now in Silver and Gold and miners and looking to buy back in on good dips if they come, hopefully we get a fright-wig selloff tommorrow or overnight which is 'mysterious'. Its all about Sun Tzu at this point or however you spell that guy's name. There is little that is particularly genuine about much price action in the markets today so the strategy becomes anticipation of enemy action,enemy chart painting, enemy fear-mongering.

WYO Silver
Jul 6, 2011 - 10:49am

Turd's words are to be heeded

Turd's words are to be heeded in the short-term. Here are some fresh comments from London whistleblower Andrew Maguire on KWN concerning the new China gold and silver exchange, which should excite PM investors over the longer term:

This morning London whistleblower Andrew Maguire told King World News that the launch of the new gold and silver exchange in China will destroy the remaining gold and silver shorts. Maguire stated, “The launch of this new gold and silver exchange has flown under the radar, but certainly has my attention. I firmly believe we are marking a pivotal point that will in very short order affect current precious metals price discovery dynamics. We now have an additional factor to be vended into the supply demand equation. This factor will ultimately destroy the remaining short positions in both gold and silver.”

....."One of the key points here Eric is that many of these shorts are naked and heavily leveraged. Thus for every physical ounce of gold and silver taken out of the physical market and into this new exchange in China, it will force many multiples of that to be covered in the paper market.”

https://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/7/6_Whistleblower_Maguire_-_This_Will_Destroy_Gold_%26_Silver_Shorts.html

C F
Jul 6, 2011 - 10:50am

The PM's going up along with

The PM's going up along with a rising dollar always looks kind of strange.

alexdgn
Jul 6, 2011 - 10:51am

Problem with RSS feed not being update frequently enough?

Hi, Congrats on the new site and all. Not to be picky, but is it just me or is the site not updating its RSS feed frequently enough? I do come to the website to comment and read comments from other users, but I usually take notice of new feeds thru my RSS Reader.

Meanwhile even with choppy EURUSD, downtrending intensively for the last 2 days, Gold and Silver are holding up and rising. EURCHF is on a rip, and the CHF is almost as good as gold (since it has the largest ratio of Gold per GDP). Silver looks like its moving on to a HoD now. Wondering if a secure close above 36 today will trigger alot of long signals for EOD traders and funds.

TexAsh
Jul 6, 2011 - 10:51am

Buy an AUG put

...and let the EE do their bidniz.

YukonCornelius
Jul 6, 2011 - 11:01am

Whistleblower Maguire - This Will Destroy Gold & Silver Shorts

This morning London whistleblower Andrew Maguire told King World News that the launch of the new gold and silver exchange in China will destroy the remaining gold and silver shorts. Maguire stated, “The launch of this new gold and silver exchange has flown under the radar, but certainly has my attention. I firmly believe we are marking a pivotal point that will in very short order affect current precious metals price discovery dynamics. We now have an additional factor to be vended into the supply demand equation. This factor will ultimately destroy the remaining short positions in both gold and silver.”

https://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/7/6_Whistleblower_Maguire_-_This_Will_Destroy_Gold_%26_Silver_Shorts.html

Eric Original
Jul 6, 2011 - 11:05am

ewc58

I guess you should have bought those July calls after all! oh well...

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Subscribe or login to read all comments.

Contribute

Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

Forum Discussion

by Solsson, 3 hours 5 min ago
by Pete, 6 hours 58 min ago
by SteveW, 7 hours 41 min ago
by Phoenix79, Oct 17, 2019 - 6:28pm
by NW VIEW, Oct 17, 2019 - 4:40pm
randomness