Well, it's finally here. With all the anticipation of Christmas morning, the September FOMC meeting ends today and then brings forth Fedlines, a SEP and a Jerry presser. Will it be 25 or 50? Will the SEP show two more cuts this year or three? How might Jerry's tone be assessed? All of these questions will be answered in the hours ahead.
And so, here we go. As the day begins, the perceived likelihood of a 50 basis point cut to the fed funds rate is at 61%...which means the chance of just a 25 basis point cut stands at 39%. As you can see below, however, IF Jerry only goes with 25...
